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-   -   Chiefs Harrison Butker is the second-most accurate field goal kicker in NFL history. (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=339425)

TLO 08-15-2021 12:10 PM

Harrison Butker is the second-most accurate field goal kicker in NFL history.
 
This is a factual statement.

rabblerouser 08-15-2021 12:10 PM

Damn.

How's he do with extra points?

TEX 08-15-2021 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TLO (Post 15784774)
Facts

Great!

What are the extra point accuracy facts? :shrug:

TLO 08-15-2021 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TEX (Post 15784778)
Great!

What are the extra point accuracy facts? :shrug:

Extra point attempts 199
Extra points made 186
Extra point percentage 93.5

Megatron96 08-15-2021 12:20 PM

Doesn’t matter to the bitches here.

“XPs matter!!!”

Except that they don’t. If they did, the Chiefs would be shopping for an XP kicker.

But curiously we can’t point to a single game where a Butker missed XP cost the Chiefs a significant game.

MVChiefFan 08-15-2021 12:23 PM

42nd most accurate xp kicker in Jackson County.

TomBarndtsTwin 08-15-2021 12:26 PM

People just gotta have something to complain about.

Probably 60-70% of NFL fanbases are complaining about their kickers missing FG’s in big spots in big games that cost their team.

Our fanbase is bitching about missed XP’s in the past, which have never cost us a game, and an XP missed in a pre-season game.

Butker HAS won us games kicking clutch FG’s, but has never lost us a game missing an XP.

I feel like ‘Lighten up, Francis’ is really the only thing left to say . . . . .

Red Dawg 08-15-2021 12:30 PM

He missed two kicks in a playoff game. Missed yet another XP last night. Last night is nothing but in the playoffs and in close games we need him to hit that crap. He gets paid for one thing.

TomBarndtsTwin 08-15-2021 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Dawg (Post 15784803)
He missed two kicks in a playoff game. Missed yet another XP last night. Last night is nothing but in the playoffs and in close games we need him to hit that crap. He gets paid for one thing.

So does every other kicker in the NFL. Shit happens. But who, outside of Justin Tucker, would you rather us trade for or sign.

I’ll wait . . . . .

rabblerouser 08-15-2021 12:38 PM

"If you're not first, you're last." - Reese Bobby

KCUnited 08-15-2021 12:39 PM

Stop pointing out opportunities for improvement

Spott 08-15-2021 01:06 PM

I’m guessing the stats don’t back it up, but I feel more comfortable with Butker making a kick from 52 yards than I do from 32. He seems to be locked in on the big kicks.

rabblerouser 08-15-2021 01:38 PM

Who's #1?

Nick ****ing Lowery?

Red Dawg 08-15-2021 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin (Post 15784810)
So does every other kicker in the NFL. Shit happens. But who, outside of Justin Tucker, would you rather us trade for or sign.

I’ll wait . . . . .

Nobody. He's as good as any for sure but I don't trust kickers. I hope it doesn't come down to him. I definitely didn't like us giving him a a five year deal. Kickers need the pressure of being gone if they **** up too much.

Pay them two years at a time and that's it.

rabblerouser 08-15-2021 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spott (Post 15784853)
I’m guessing the stats don’t back it up, but I feel more comfortable with Butker making a kick from 52 yards than I do from 32. He seems to be locked in on the big kicks.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2019/...arrison-butker

Quote:

But he came into the NFL with a statistical oddity: at Tech, he had been more accurate at long distances than medium distances.

Perhaps this was what had kept the Panthers from committing to him.

oldman 08-15-2021 01:49 PM

I hate kickers almost as much as I hate QBs not named Mahomes. However, it should be pointed out that Gould missed one, too.

dlphg9 08-15-2021 01:49 PM

Call me when he ****s up a playoff spot or causes us to lose a post season game because he missed an XP. I'd take him over anyone, because he's clutch as **** and eats pussys like Red Dawg for breakfast.

srvy 08-15-2021 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rabblerouser (Post 15784933)
Who's #1?

Nick ****ing Lowery?

Reluctantly Janski but even he let us down in double OT.

Redbled 08-15-2021 02:01 PM

If the two point conversion rate is 50 percent or higher than go for it almost every time. More points over the course of a season.

Deberg_1990 08-15-2021 02:04 PM

Modern kickers should be more accurate than ever. All the stadiums have about perfect turf or indoors now.

It’s not the same as back in the Jan Stenarud days when they kicked in the dirt and mud.

smithandrew051 08-15-2021 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redbled (Post 15784965)
If the two point conversion rate is 50 percent or higher than go for it almost every time. More points over the course of a season.

If our OL proves to be elite in run blocking, then I’m all for it.

If our offense has the threat of the run in that situation, I’ll take our offense to pick up a few yards all day.

TomBarndtsTwin 08-15-2021 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Dawg (Post 15784941)
Nobody. He's as good as any for sure but I don't trust kickers. I hope it doesn't come down to him. I definitely didn't like us giving him a a five year deal. Kickers need the pressure of being gone if they **** up too much.

Pay them two years at a time and that's it.

My history as a Chiefs fan makes me leery, but I generally trust Butker.

That said, in all fairness to Butker, I don’t want games coming down to him either. When we have a QB like Mahomes and the offense that we have, I would much rather they decide the game on their own and not leave it up to Butker. But, obviously, part of that comes down to coaching and play calling. So that part, at least, is out of Butker’s control.

ThyKingdomCome15 08-15-2021 02:33 PM

Xp's are important. Big difference between a 3 and 4 point lead late in the 4th. With that said, Butker is awesome. Glad he's a Chief.

(Call your golf doctor. -Mitch Holtus after failed XP)

RZKYBZNZ 08-15-2021 02:38 PM

Happy to have him!

rabblerouser 08-15-2021 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by srvy (Post 15784962)
Reluctantly Janski but even he let us down in double OT.

According to NL's Youth Foundation website, "Nick was inducted into the Kansas City Chiefs Hall of Fame in 2009 as the most accurate kicker in NFL History, the Chiefs All-Time leading Scorer, with the most field goals in NFL History when he retired from the NFL."

So, if Nick was the most accurate kicker in NFL History in 2009, then ol' Janners wouldn't be the most accurate in team history, right?

Megatron96 08-15-2021 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThyKingdomCome15 (Post 15785000)
Xp's are important. Big difference between a 3 and 4 point lead late in the 4th. With that said, Butker is awesome. Glad he's a Chief.

(Call your golf doctor. -Mitch Holtus after failed XP)

:rolleyes:
Yes, they are so important that the Chiefs should cut Butker because he missed a handful of XPs last season, none of which directly impacted the outcome of any game. That way KC can go after a PK that statistically is significantly worse than Butker when kicking FGs (because literally that's all that's left out there) because that guy MIGHT kick 3-4 more XPs per season.

Pure genius.

Glad you nitwits don't have a say in how they run the team . . . :clap:

TomBarndtsTwin 08-15-2021 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rabblerouser (Post 15785017)
According to NL's Youth Foundation website, "Nick was inducted into the Kansas City Chiefs Hall of Fame in 2009 as the most accurate kicker in NFL History, the Chiefs All-Time leading Scorer, with the most field goals in NFL History when he retired from the NFL."

So, if Nick was the most accurate kicker in NFL History in 2009, then ol' Janners wouldn't be the most accurate in team history, right?

There’s no way that’s true. Nick Lowery was an 80% FG kicker for his career. That means he missed one out of every 5 FG’s he tried for the Chiefs.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...lowernic01.htm

Surely, the Chiefs have had someone over 80% for their career in KC? You would think, anyway. Stoyo, maybe? Although short lived. I guess it did say ‘as of 2009’. Pretty sure Succop, Santos and obviously Butker, have all surpassed that % in their time with the Chiefs.

But no way was he the ‘most accurate kicker in NFL history’ as of 2009. That’s misinformed.

srvy 08-15-2021 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rabblerouser (Post 15785017)
According to NL's Youth Foundation website, "Nick was inducted into the Kansas City Chiefs Hall of Fame in 2009 as the most accurate kicker in NFL History, the Chiefs All-Time leading Scorer, with the most field goals in NFL History when he retired from the NFL."

So, if Nick was the most accurate kicker in NFL History in 2009, then ol' Janners wouldn't be the most accurate in team history, right?

Ol Nick was accurate till you needed one really bad:thumb:

Red Dawg 08-15-2021 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dlphg9 (Post 15784953)
Call me when he ****s up a playoff spot or causes us to lose a post season game because he missed an XP. I'd take him over anyone, because he's clutch as **** and eats pussys like Red Dawg for breakfast.

Lol. I am glad we have him. I just don't like kickers in general. They **** up in terrible times. Ask the Vikes back in the day. Ask the Bears from a few years ago. Ask Bill's fans. I don't want games coming down to Butkers leg. He has missed in big games.

rabblerouser 08-15-2021 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by srvy (Post 15785027)
Ol Nick was accurate till you needed one really bad:thumb:

Every ****ing time.

I'll never forget the one in Miami. I was...STUNNED.

Chieftain 08-15-2021 03:37 PM

I would rather have Butker than 99% of the kickers in this league. He has yet to cost us a game. The guy is a baller when it comes to nailing long kicks.

L.A. Chieffan 08-15-2021 04:02 PM

Misses one little xp in a preseason game, and everybody loses their minds

-King- 08-15-2021 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chieftain (Post 15785054)
I would rather have Butker than 99% of the kickers in this league. He has yet to cost us a game. The guy is a baller when it comes to nailing long kicks.

Since when do we wait until someone costs us the game to address a problem? Not saying cut Butker, but this is a clear problem. He's the worst XP kicker in the league and I don't even think it's close. Just because we have Mahomes and games don't usually come down to a extra point because of how good he is doesn't mean Butker being a terrible XP kicker isn't a big problem.

comochiefsfan 08-15-2021 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 15784787)
But curiously we can’t point to a single game where a Butker missed XP cost the Chiefs a significant game.

"I've never been pulled over for driving home drunk. So I see no reason why it will ever happen."

Megatron96 08-15-2021 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by comochiefsfan (Post 15785082)
"I've never been pulled over for driving home drunk. So I see no reason why it will ever happen."

uh, wat?

Is there a point you're trying to make here, or are you just drunk/high/dumb?

Chieftain 08-15-2021 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785081)
Since when do we wait until someone costs us the game to address a problem? Not saying cut Butker, but this is a clear problem. He's the worst XP kicker in the league and I don't even think it's close. Just because we have Mahomes and games don't usually come down to a extra point because of how good he is doesn't mean Butker being a terrible XP kicker isn't a big problem.

I don't know what to say. It's a mental thing for him kicking the extra point field goals. Maybe we should go for two every single time?

alanm 08-15-2021 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by L.A. Chieffan (Post 15785074)
Misses one little xp in a preseason game, and everybody loses their minds

I'd rather he get it all out of his system in preseason.

Megatron96 08-15-2021 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785081)
Since when do we wait until someone costs us the game to address a problem? Not saying cut Butker, but this is a clear problem. He's the worst XP kicker in the league and I don't even think it's close. Just because we have Mahomes and games don't usually come down to a extra point because of how good he is doesn't mean Butker being a terrible XP kicker isn't a big problem.

Actually, he was the NFL'S 27th ranked XP kicker in 2020.

However, in his 4 years as the Chiefs PK, he's missed just 13 XPs out of possible 199.

That translates to a 93.5% conversion rate, with three seasons over 93%, and just one below.

Even if you project Butker missing 4 XPs this season (or one more than his career average per season), he still is a top-10 XP kicker.

Dumbasses.

Deberg_1990 08-15-2021 04:54 PM

I guess I Would rather have a kicker who can consistently boot 40-50 Yarders but miss an XP once in awhile rather than the opposite. With Mahomes and this offense the XPs have been devalued.

It is weird that he struggles with 33 yard kicks though?? Is everything the same on an XP as for a FG? The snap, the players, the hold, the formation???

notorious 08-15-2021 04:55 PM

He's an oddity, that's for sure.

It's like a player balling out at deep 3s but ****s up routine free throws.

Megatron96 08-15-2021 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990 (Post 15785124)
I guess I Would rather have a kicker who can consistently boot 40-50 Yarders but miss an XP once in awhile rather than the opposite. With Mahomes and this offense the XPs have been devalued.

It is weird that he struggles with 33 yard kicks though?? Is everything the same on an XP as for a FG? The snap, the players, the hold, the formation???

In his career, Butker is 41-out-of-43 from 30-39 yds, and 186-out-of-199 kicking XPs.

let me spell this out for you guys: from 39 yards or less, Butker has missed just 15 times out of a possible 240 attempts (FGs/XPs combined). That's 93.8% for his career.

you people really need to find a hobby other than pissing and moaning about every Butker miss. Maybe try rhythmic dancing or something equally as mindless.

Deberg_1990 08-15-2021 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 15785133)
In his career, Butker is 41-out-of-43 from 30-39 yds, and 186-out-of-199 kicking XPs.

let me spell this out for you guys: from 39 yards or less, Butker has missed just 15 times out of a possible 240 attempts (FGs/XPs combined). That's 93.8% for his career.

you people really need to find a hobby other than pissing and moaning about every Butker miss. Maybe try rhythmic dancing or something equally as mindless.

I guess I would ask how that compares to all other kickers around the league? Is that the average since the XP was moved back 3-4 years ago??

Megatron96 08-15-2021 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990 (Post 15785134)
I guess I would ask how that compares to all other kickers around the league? Is that the average since the XP was moved back 3-4 years ago??

Do us all a favor and look it up, do a tiny bit of math and figure out the average, and report back, hmm?

otherwise, I'm going to go waaaaaaaaaaay out on a limb here and say that a 94% conversion rate (47/50) is about as good as it gets in the NFL.

TomBarndtsTwin 08-15-2021 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785081)
Since when do we wait until someone costs us the game to address a problem? Not saying cut Butker, but this is a clear problem. He's the worst XP kicker in the league and I don't even think it's close. Just because we have Mahomes and games don't usually come down to a extra point because of how good he is doesn't mean Butker being a terrible XP kicker isn't a big problem.

It’s literally NOT a big problem, but you and some of the other dumbasses on here are trying to make it into one.

The statistics would show that even though he struggled last season he is NOT the worst XP kicker in the league and if we consider the last few years, he’s not even close. So you’re hyperbolic statements are just that.

As has been said, we haven’t lost a single game because of it.

But I’m sure some other dumbass on here will make another post equating missing XP’s to drinking and driving . . . . . . . . . oh, wait.

-King- 08-15-2021 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 15785118)
Actually, he was the NFL'S 27th ranked XP kicker in 2020.

However, in his 4 years as the Chiefs PK, he's missed just 13 XPs out of possible 199.

That translates to a 93.5% conversion rate, with three seasons over 93%, and just one below.

Even if you project Butker missing 4 XPs this season (or one more than his career average per season), he still is a top-10 XP kicker.

Dumbasses.

Oh whew, he's 27th. Much better.

And how exactly is he a top 10 XP kicker and also 27th?

If he keeps missing XPs how he did last year, I don't see any reason we shouldn't go for 2 a majority of the time. I trust Mahomes and Reid getting 2 yards more than I trust Butker to make an XP.

TLO 08-15-2021 05:11 PM

I just realized I've created a thread that will be bumped any time Butker misses a kick. 7 years from now, Butker will miss a FG to cost us a game and Deberg will be there to bump this thread.

-King- 08-15-2021 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin (Post 15785141)
It’s literally NOT a big problem, but you and some of the other dumbasses on here are trying to make it into one.

The statistics would show that even though he struggled last season he is NOT the worst XP kicker in the league and if we consider the last few years, he’s not even close. So you’re hyperbolic statements are just that.

As has been said, we haven’t loss a single game because of it.

But I’m sure some other dumbass on here will make another post equating missing XP’s to drinking and driving . . . . . . . . . oh, wait.

We were the 28th ranked team in XP conversations. I don't see how that isnt struggling. He's gotten worse literally every year since 2017.

2017: 100%
2018: 94%
2019: 93%
2020: 88%

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...ate=2021-02-08

But I guess I'm just making it up.

Megatron96 08-15-2021 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785142)
Oh whew, he's 27th. Much better.

And how exactly is he a top 10 XP kicker and also 27th?

If he keeps missing XPs how he did last year, I don't see any reason we shouldn't go for 2 a majority of the time. I trust Mahomes and Reid getting 2 yards more than I trust Butker to make an XP.

ROFL
Your math skills are just about non-existent, aren't they?

TomBarndtsTwin 08-15-2021 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785146)
We were the 28th ranked team in XP conversations. I don't see how that isnt struggling. He's gotten worse literally every year since 2017.

2017: 100%
2018: 94%
2019: 93%
2020: 88%

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...ate=2021-02-08

But I guess I'm just making it up.

And this matters why?

I can make a year chart too:

2017: one game playoff exit (guess that 100% didn’t help us here)
2018: OT loss in AFC Title Game
2019: Super Bowl victory
2020: Super Bowl loss

So basically, since Butker’s XP % has gone down, are winning has gone up. Attaboy, Butker! Keep missing those XP’s!!













(And yes, I realize that’s ****ing stupid. Just like yours and some of the other idiots posts in this thread calling it a ‘big problem’)

-King- 08-15-2021 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin (Post 15785154)
And this matters why?

I can make a year chart too:

2017: one game playoff exit (guess that 100% didn’t help us here)
2018: OT loss in AFC Title Game
2019: Super Bowl victory
2020: Super Bowl loss

So basically, since Butker’s XP % has gone down, are winning has gone up. Attaboy, Butker! Keep missing those XP’s!!













(And yes, I realize that’s ****ing stupid. Just like yours and some of the other idiots posts in this thread calling it a ‘big problem’)

Wut? So using a kickers declining conversion rate in a discussion about that kicker is stupid?

TomBarndtsTwin 08-15-2021 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785165)
Wut? So using a kickers declining conversion rate in a discussion about that kicker is stupid?

Using it in a discussion? No.

Saying it’s a ‘big problem’? Yes. Since it’s already been proven it hasn’t impacted us negatively in any tangible way.

Megatron96 08-15-2021 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785165)
Wut? So using a kickers declining conversion rate in a discussion about that kicker is stupid?

Without any context whatsoever? Yep, that's dumb as shit. :thumb:

Perineum Ripper 08-15-2021 05:42 PM

When that kicker has had only one bad year out of 4 it is kind of premature to worry about him. If he has another year like last year he needs to **** off, but when he has an average of 100% 94%, 94%, then an 88%. I’m only going to worry if that one shot year becomes the normal instead of the 94%

-King- 08-15-2021 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 15785171)
Without any context whatsoever? Yep, that's dumb as shit. :thumb:

What's the context that makes it better? That we have Mahomes so mistakes like that aren't likely to cost us games? I agree. Still a problem though.

-King- 08-15-2021 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin (Post 15785170)
Using it in a discussion? No.

Saying it’s a ‘big problem’? Yes. Since it’s already been proven it hasn’t impacted us negatively in any tangible way.

Did Ben Neiman cost us any games last year? No? Guess we shouldn't be in a rush to put Gay in over him then using your logic.

Megatron96 08-15-2021 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785178)
What's the context that makes it better? That we have Mahomes so mistakes like that aren't likely to cost us games? I agree. Still a problem though.

i gave you piles of context. Maybe you should go back and read some of them.

What you and your ilk are attempting is commonly referred to as 'nitpicking.' Look that one up as well.

See the difference?

TomBarndtsTwin 08-15-2021 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785181)
Did Ben Neiman cost us any games last year? No? Guess we shouldn't be in a rush to put Gay in over him then using your logic.

Fair comparison since Ben Neiman is routinely mentioned as one of the better LBer’s in the NFL. Let me know when we have a better kicker on our roster than Butker that we can upgrade with.

You’re really just looking dumb and desperate now. You should just tap out now while you can.

BigRedChief 08-15-2021 06:29 PM

It’s weird. Almost hits a 63 yarder. Nails 55 yarders at will but extra points are an issue. We need Townsend to kick extra points?

InChiefsHeaven 08-15-2021 06:57 PM

It's like when I was delivering pizza...I got pulled over a lot more than "normal" because I had a LOT more opportunity to be pulled over...at least that's what I told my wife....

But seriously, he kicks a LOT of extra points. People forget that. Sooner or later he'll miss a few. That it happened last night in a pre season game just gives people something to make noise about.

Butker is nails and the best kicker we've had in a long ass time. It's telling that Chiefs fans bitch about the kicker...cuz he has to kick so many damn extra points he missed a few. God I love this team!!

Bump 08-15-2021 07:18 PM

we should just go for 2 everytime after a TD, with our offense we'd make a good enough percentage of them to make it worth.

-King- 08-15-2021 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin (Post 15785194)
Fair comparison since Ben Neiman is routinely mentioned as one of the better LBer’s in the NFL. Let me know when we have a better kicker on our roster than Butker that we can upgrade with.

You’re really just looking dumb and desperate now. You should just tap out now while you can.

We do have an alternate to Butker kicking extra points that would be an upgrade. He's called Mahomes.


Sooooo....

-King- 08-15-2021 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 15785187)
i gave you piles of context. Maybe you should go back and read some of them.

What you and your ilk are attempting is commonly referred to as 'nitpicking.' Look that one up as well.

See the difference?

I don't think saying we should opt to go for 2 more if our kicker keeps being (one of) the worst kickers in the league at XPs is nitpicking.

RaidersOftheCellar 08-15-2021 07:58 PM

I guess I don’t see the reason for panic over the occasional missed XP when he makes everything from 50+.

Megatron96 08-15-2021 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785299)
I don't think saying we should opt to go for 2 more if our kicker keeps being (one of) the worst kickers in the league at XPs is nitpicking.

Butker's worst XP% has been 88.8%.

Over the last 4 years the Chiefs success rate on 2-point conversions is 66%.

Which one is better?

rabblerouser 08-15-2021 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 15785339)
Butker's worst XP% has been 88.8%.

Over the last 4 years the Chiefs success rate on 2-point conversions is 66%.

Which one is better?

Depends.


If 66%(2x)>88.8%(x), then 66% is better.

Megatron96 08-15-2021 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rabblerouser (Post 15785348)
Depends.


If 66%(2x)>88.8%(x), then 66% is better.

Depends a lot on what the exact value of 'x' is . . .

rabblerouser 08-15-2021 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 15785365)
Depends a lot on what the exact value of 'x' is . . .

No, it doesn't - in this case, it's how many 2 pt conversions vs XPs are attempted.

66% of 100 2 pt conversions is a helluva lot better than 88% of 40 XPs...

Megatron96 08-15-2021 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rabblerouser (Post 15785375)
No, it doesn't - in this case, it's how many 2 pt conversions vs XPs are attempted.

66% of 100 2 pt conversions is a helluva lot better than 88% of 40 XPs...

Except that the Chiefs haven't attempted 100 2-pt conversions in the last 4 years. They've attempted something like 8.

Meanwhile, Butker's attempted 199 XPs, converting 186 of them.

And FYI, the league average success rate for 2-pt conversions is 48.6%.

There's no basis in fact for the Chiefs to consider going for 2 vs. Butker kicking XPs. Butker is far more efficient no matter how you look at it.

-King- 08-15-2021 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 15785339)
Butker's worst XP% has been 88.8%.

Over the last 4 years the Chiefs success rate on 2-point conversions is 66%.

Which one is better?

Uh...the 66%?

Is this a serious question?

I'll take a 66% of making 2 points over a 88% chance of 1 point.

SupDock 08-15-2021 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 15785382)
Except that the Chiefs haven't attempted 100 2-pt conversions in the last 4 years. They've attempted something like 8.

Meanwhile, Butker's attempted 199 XPs, converting 186 of them.

And FYI, the league average success rate for 2-pt conversions is 48.6%.

There's no basis in fact for the Chiefs to consider going for 2 vs. Butker kicking XPs. Butker is far more efficient no matter how you look at it.

The point is

Butker has gained 186 points out of 199 attempts.

If the chiefs decided to go for a two point conversion every time and completed at the league average of 49 percent, 0.46 x 199 x 2 points for every completed attempts that is 183 points. If we complete by a little higher than league average due to the Mahomes factor, then we come out ahead compared to the 186 points Butker earned.

I’m not necessarily advocating for this, just explaining the perspective.

-King- 08-15-2021 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 15785382)
Except that the Chiefs haven't attempted 100 2-pt conversions in the last 4 years. They've attempted something like 8.

Meanwhile, Butker's attempted 199 XPs, converting 186 of them.

And FYI, the league average success rate for 2-pt conversions is 48.6%.

There's no basis in fact for the Chiefs to consider going for 2 vs. Butker kicking XPs. Butker is far more efficient no matter how you look at it.

Are you legitimately saying Mahomes, Reid and the rest of the offense can't get 2 yards better than Butker can kick an XP?


Btw, even at that league average 48%, if applied to the number of kicks Butker kicked, that comes out to 191 points.

191>186

And I bet our offense can pick up a lot more than 48% of them.

TomBarndtsTwin 08-15-2021 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785293)
We do have an alternate to Butker kicking extra points that would be an upgrade. He's called Mahomes.


Sooooo....

And yet our genius Super Bowl winning coach doesn’t utilize it more. Maybe he knows something you don’t? Maybe he trusts Butker.

We scored 57 TD’s last year. We kicked XP’s on 54 of those 57. Butker made 48 of those 54 XP’s. He missed 6, the equivalent of one TD (6 points), over the course of a 16 game season.

You want to completely change our philosophy on tries and line up Mahomes under center in goal line situations 57x a year to make up for one missed TD? Exposing him to possible injury in goal line situations, where QB’s tend to get hit a lot, if they’re not directly handing off to the running back post snap. You want to do all that for 6 ****ing points??

The dumb thing about the above scenario? If he had missed 2 less and had made 50 out of 54, you and others wouldn’t be bitching right now and we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. So it’s really over 2 points and not even 6, since it’s unfair to expect any kicker in the NFL to go 100% on 50+ attempts.

So, yeah, I think your suggestion to just abandon the XP and line up Mahomes under center for 2 point conversions all the time, all in the name of recovering one TD over the course of a 16 game season, is also ****ing stupid.

And I’m guessing Coach Reid would probably agree with me. Thus why they only tried it 3 times all last season. You use it when you have to, not just because ‘OMG, Butker missed a few extra points!’, because unlike you (and others), they are more concerned with the long term health of Mahomes than they are one measley TD.

-King- 08-15-2021 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin (Post 15785399)
And yet our genius Super Bowl winning coach doesn’t utilize it more. Maybe he knows something you don’t? Maybe he trusts Butker.

We scored 57 TD’s last year. We kicked XP’s on 54 of those 57. Butker made 48 of those 54 XP’s. He missed 6, the equivalent of one TD (6 points), over the course of a 16 game season.

You want to completely change our philosophy on tries and line up Mahomes under center in goal line situations 57x a year to make up for one missed TD? Exposing him to possible injury in goal line situations, where QB’s tend to get hit a lot, if they’re not directly handing off to the running back post snap. You want to do all that for 6 ****ing points??

The dumb thing about the above scenario? If he had missed 2 less and had made 50 out of 54, you and others wouldn’t be bitching right now and we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. So it’s really over 2 points and not even 6, since it’s unfair to expect any kicker in the NFL to go 100% on 50+ attempts.

So, yeah, I think your suggestion to just abandon the XP and line up Mahomes under center for 2 point conversions all the time, all in the name of recovering one TD over the course of a 16 game season, is also ****ing stupid.

And I’m guessing Coach Reid would probably agree with me. Thus why they only tried it 3 times all last season. You use it when you have to, not just because ‘OMG, Butker missed a few extra points!’, because unlike you (and others), they are more concerned with the long term health of Mahomes than they are one measley TD.

Yeah we might not having this conversation if he missed 2 less XPs. But he did. And I'd guess Reid isn't trying to rock the boat and trying to get Butkers confidence back up cause once you start attempting more 2 point conversions, you can't put that toothpaste back in the tube. But I bet if it continues into this year we do start attempting more 2 point conversions.

smithandrew051 08-15-2021 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785392)
Uh...the 66%?

Is this a serious question?

I'll take a 66% of making 2 points over a 88% chance of 1 point.

The math supports this. Using these percentages:

Expected value of kicking the XP = .88 points
Expected value of going for 2 = 1.32 points

TomBarndtsTwin 08-15-2021 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785404)
Yeah we might not having this conversation if he missed 2 less XPs. But he did. And I'd guess Reid isn't trying to rock the boat and trying to get Butkers confidence back up cause once you start attempting more 2 point conversions, you can't put that toothpaste back in the tube. But I bet if it continues into this year we do start attempting more 2 point conversions.

Yeah, it could be that.

Or it could be that the Chiefs are more concerned about the long term health (remember Denver?) of our half billion dollar franchise QB, literally the ONLY reason we will be in position to compete for a Super Bowl every single year, and they wanna do everything possible to minimize high contact situations for him unless it’s absolutely necessary.

But you’re probably right. It’s probably more about stroking Butker’s ego a little.

We’ll have to watch and see how many times the Chiefs opt to go for 2 this year, not because they need to, mind you, but because they’ve lost confidence in Butker. We’ll check the results at the end of the year and see who was right.

-King- 08-15-2021 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin (Post 15785412)
Yeah, it could be that.

Or it could be that the Chiefs are more concerned about the long term health (remember Denver?) of our half billion dollar franchise QB, literally the ONLY reason we will be in position to compete for a Super Bowl every single year, and they wanna do everything possible to minimize high contact situations for him unless it’s absolutely necessary.

But you’re probably right. It’s probably more about stroking Butker’s ego a little.

We’ll have to watch and see how many times the Chiefs opt to go for 2 this year, not because they need to, mind you, but because they’ve lost confidence in Butker. We’ll check the results at the end of the year and see who was right.

Yes, I'm sure injury risk also plays a part in why we don't go for it more. Is that something that's being disputed?

Megatron96 08-15-2021 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 15785404)
Yeah we might not having this conversation if he missed 2 less XPs. But he did. And I'd guess Reid isn't trying to rock the boat and trying to get Butkers confidence back up cause once you start attempting more 2 point conversions, you can't put that toothpaste back in the tube. But I bet if it continues into this year we do start attempting more 2 point conversions.

What kind of gutless take is this?

No. Reid is never going to look at Butker and say to himself, "well, he's only making 44 XPs out of every 50, so we have to start going for 2 more." No HC in their right mind would consider that. 44 points are 44 points, and at no risk to any starting offensive players. Simple.

And right now, last season's 6 misses (and wasn't there a botched hold and a blocked attempt or something last season?) were nothing more exciting than a statistical aberration, period. There's nothing to suggest that Butker is going to miss another 6 XPs this year, or any other year going forward. In fact, the numbers suggest that he'll miss 3 on average for the rest of his career. Any HC would take those 44 points and laugh all the way home.

rabblerouser 08-15-2021 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SupDock (Post 15785393)
The point is

Butker has gained 186 points out of 199 attempts.

If the chiefs decided to go for a two point conversion every time and completed at the league average of 49 percent, 0.46 x 199 x 2 points for every completed attempts that is 183 points. If we complete by a little higher than league average due to the Mahomes factor, then we come out ahead compared to the 186 points Butker earned.

I’m not necessarily advocating for this, just explaining the perspective.

Yeah, I quit trying to explain logic to Megatron long ago.

I didn't attempt to explain the math. He needs to pony up for a a semester of Quantitative Reasoning like the rest of us...

Megatron96 08-15-2021 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rabblerouser (Post 15785437)
Yeah, I quit trying to explain logic to Megatron long ago.

I didn't attempt to explain the math. He needs to pony up for a a semester of Quantitative Reasoning like the rest of us...

LMAO
math? here's a point: we have almost no evidence that the chiefs would convert 66 out of 100 2-pointers. We have 8 or 9 attempts over the last 4 years (or whatever the actual total is), and that's it. In the world of 'math' that's really close to the same thing as nothing.

At least with Butker we have 199 attempts, which isn't definitive either, statistically speaking, but it's a hell of a lot more significant than 8 or 9.

So while we'd like to think that KC could convert more 2-pointers than the league average, we literally have no actual facts to support that. "mathematically" the Chiefs conversion rate is insignificant at this time.

in other words, it's nothing more than a wild-ass guess.

SupDock 08-15-2021 10:22 PM

I think a bigger issue is the reliability of points. Across a season you may score more points, but it will be more random in the times it is helpful. You could go through a game where you miss all 4 two point conversions and put yourself in a difficult spot.
This is why head coaches tend to do it when the extra point will be more likely to be helpful.


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