Lions cutting Trey Flowers
 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Lions have informed DE Trey Flowers that he will be released on the first day of the 2022 league year next week. Flowers has been nothing but class in Detroit, a good player hit hard by injuries the past 2 seasons.</p>&mdash; Dave Birkett (@davebirkett) <a href="https://twitter.com/davebirkett/status/1501988202294517770?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 10, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Does he have anything left?

There’s going to be a lot of talent added to the free agent DE group after cuts.

We know for sure we’ll get at least one, just a matter of who.

I don’t think Flowers fits the profile, and he’s starting to look like a brokedick, but the more the better.

I'm sure he has a few million laying around

I suspect he has wilted.







I’m sorry.

He's been injured and more than likely would be on the cheaper side. Probably a one year deal to try and build his value again.

Has familiarity with Brendan Daly who is now the LB coach.

not really interested unless vet minimum and is cool with being depth

He'll probably go back to New England though.

If you get cut by a last place team like Detroit, makes you wonder about the guy. Detroit needs all the help they can get.

Really? Cutting a great player seems like the kind of thing a perennially terrible franchise would do.

He will be 29 when the season starts and apart from last year, Trey has been really good every other year for the past 5.

If his price tag is reasonably low, he seems like a perfect 1-2 year reclamation project with high upside. Being he will be released, he also wouldn’t count against the comp pick formula, which is huge in an offseason we will lose Ward, Tyrann, Nnadi, Reed, Pringle and a few others to FA on expired contracts that should all land elsewhere on new deals.

You're no daisy! You're no daisy AT ALL!

If hes healthy he could probably be Clark for less than what we would pay Clark should we retain him.

I'd throw him a 2 year deal worth about $10-12 million.

I wouldn’t just assume that we lose Ward.

I think he’s the one guy we keep.

Yeah we need to keep him. Our secondary is basically 2 guys in contract years (Fenton/Thornhill) and Sneed without him.

There's some real Ingram potential in him, IMO.

The problem is really that Flowers has had 2 seasons lost to injury rather than Ingrams 1. And when that starts to happen, to whatever those guys are ever 'healthy' again, they've really lost something in the exchange. They never seem to get back to even a reasonable facsimile of what they once were.

I wouldn't be willing to outbid NE for him and NE will probably not have to offer him much more than a couple million.

Agreed.

I'd do this thing, now. If we're going to beef up this DL, we're going to need some solid additions that won't break the bank and, I hope, one big ticket addition.

DeForest Buckner getting cut in San Francisco, maybe?

Assuming both Flowers and Collins cost the same - who do you take?

I think it's far more likely that Collins makes a meaningful contribution, though I think the change to truly make an impact would be a little higher for Flowers.

With Collins I think you have an 80% chance of getting a valuable rotational box safety and clear upgrade on Sorensen. A 20% chance he's a brokedick.

With Flowers I think you get a 66% chance of a dude that's not healthy enough to mean anything and not effective enough when on the field due to those injuries to matter. That leaves about a 33% chance he's a genuine starting caliber SDE.

Of the two, I prefer Collins. You just can't count on a guy with that kind of bust potential.

Didn't they trade him to Indy?

You thinking Armstead?

LMAO

Then you pay a couple million + 1. He has a connection here in Daley, even though Daley is coaching another position entirely.

Veach gets a lot of credit for what he did for the OL last season, but he didn't get enough credit for the depth he built. That OL was two-deep at every position. Niang, Long, Allegretti, Blythe, and Wylie could have started on other teams.

We need that depth here. I suspect we bring back Ingram, but Ingram has an injury history -- back that position up. We only have one legit backup on the team right now in Danna.

You are correct -- he was traded to Indy, who may cut him.

God. We really need to cut Frank. I'm getting worried that isn't happening....

two questions: is he cheaper than frank clark? is he better than frank clark?

Me personally? I'm going with Flowers.

DE > S

We have a desperate need for bodies at both positions. Personally, I take the DE.

:facepalm:

There is absolutely no chance that the Colts cut DeForest Buckner

LMAO

Current Neil Smith is better than Frank Clark.

Sure.

And S > IR

You have to weigh the potential return against the odds of actually getting that.

It's how you calculate the settlement value of a lawsuit. If you have a case with say $10 million in potential damages and a 40% chance of actually winning, you have a case worth roughly $4 million dollars.

If you have a case worth $6 million and an 70% chance of winning, your $6 million case is actually worth roughly $4.2 million (after subtracting the costs of litigation, but now we're going too deep in the weeds).

In other words, the more lucrative case is actually the less 'valuable' one.

In this case you have a DE in Flowers who may be a $10 million player if he hits, but he's 35% likely to be that guy. So he's 'worth' $3.5 million. Whereas in Collins case he may be a $5 million dollar player but he's 80% likely to hit that mark so he's 'worth' $4 million.

Such is my calculus anyway. It's the variation in the figures that creates the question. I'm just saying that when it gets down to it, the latter is the guy I'd rather have with the values that I'm assigning them.

Lorenzo Carter and Landon Collins please

That's fair.

I minimize my fears of injury, though. I figure if I can get him on the field for 50% of the downs this coming season, he'll stay healthy and it'll be a win.

That seems incredibly unlikely. To what possible purpose?

Guy has a base salary of $11 million. Teams would be lining up around the block to throw no worse than a 3rd rounder Indy's way to take on that deal at that cap hit. You could probably get a 2nd out of him.

He'll likely get cut NEXT season. But there's no way they're cutting him this year with $70 million in cap room and no genuine reason to do so.

See in our situation I would likely overweight the injury concerns.

I mean it ain't like we have a ton of depth behind him if he's truly broken down.

That’s why you sign another guy and draft one….or draft two. I think the money he’s going to get isn’t going to be enough that we would be out of the running.

But the cost of Collins compared to what we’re going to ask him to do….isn’t worth it.

I think Dan Sorensen, when he was good (and really, from about 2016 to 2019 he was quite good when utilized in the sort of capacity I would be looking to utilize Collins) was absolutely worth $4-5 million.

If you got 2016 Dan Sorensen out of him, you wouldn't think that was a damn good use of $4-5 million in cap? I think Collins could easily give you that level of play.

absolutely

I HIGHLY doubt we’re able to keep him. He’s likely going to get paid 10-15m per and has multiple teams interested in him. We aren’t in a position to outbid teams and instead can trust Veach to find the next Ward, Fenton, Sneed,

I'm not interested in a safety that struggles in coverage.

Same here. Get good coverage safeties that are willing/solid tacklers.

We could just re-sign Sorenson if that was what we were looking for.

Teams are too good at identifying matchups like that. You need versatility, no specialization.

He’s full blown elite as a blitzed and run defender, though.

That absolutely has value, albeit limited.

Find a younger, cheaper guy that has the ability to get better at coverage instead of signing a veteran at more money.

Looking around the AFC, I'm not real interested in defending the run at an elite level right now.

I agree. I also wouldn’t be mad if we did bring him in for minimal cost.

Didn’t he play for Spags in NY?

pay a free agent safety or pay Ward...prob cost the same

Draft has quite a few for us to choose from. All versatile. Great year for us to reload