End of the round picks
 

It seems every year we have guys that may be a bit "overdrafted" if we pick them where we sit, but they likely won't be available the next time your up.

What is everyones solution to that?

The generic answer? JUST TRADE BACK!

Except you have to have a team that wants to trade up and also overpay to do it. Most teams aren't going to overpay to move up 5-6 spots.

Thats what I'm thinking too. Yes, trade back would be ideal, but it takes two to tango.

I've always felt in those positions to just take the guy you like. Yeah, it may be a bit early, but it is what it is.

The difference between 30 and 50 is minimal to me. Yeah, you're probably reaching but if you don't think your guy is going to be there at 50 and you don't have any offers to trade back....just take him.

They can trade down obviously, but that’s what pick 50 is for IMO.

It’s perfect to have that pick in the middle of our 2 firsts and 62.

They can trade up from 50 too.

The nice thing about our situation is that there are multiple teams picking after us that may not deem their earlier pick in the first as good value to take their QB and will want to move up in from of other teams with similar mindsets to get a QB with that fifth year option.

Sure would be nice to slide into the late 30s while adding an additional third, or even a pick next year.

Lots of directions this draft could go. It’s all over the place.

I don't mind a bit of a reach. I wouldn't be upset, for instance, if they picked Pickens or Mafe or somebody like that who is probably a top 50 player in round 1 if they feel he might not be there at 50. I'd probably be upset over guys like Christian Watson and Drake Jackson who I see as more bottom of 2 guys and so do alot of pundits that get paid to do it.

Basically, if you're reaching for clearly subpar players, that's when I take issue. Like LV taking Leatherwood over Darrisaw when they wanted an OT. Or better, KC taking CEH over Tee Higgins (still chaps my ass).

Teams in the 32-39 range that need a QB.

DET - 32, 34
NYG - 36
HOU - 37

So your best bet, if you want to stay in the 30s, is to hope that the Giants or the Texans want to jump the Lions for a QB.

The Giants can give you a 4th to move up from 36 to 30.
The Texans can give you a 4th to move up from 37 to 30.

I highly doubt someone is eating the value of a 3rd to move up 6-7 spots.

Completely agree.

Pickens and Mafe are two guys that I would love at 50, so I couldn’t be upset about taking them in the 1st, because they aren’t making it to 50.

Basically if you're looking to get a 3rd round pick out of a trade down....you're going to be in that Atlanta range of 41-45. And even then your only trade partners are Seattle and Atlanta. Indy doesn't have a 3rd round pick to give you.

Its pretty bad practice to trade more than 10 slots out, historically anyway. So, if you're not trading out further than that, as The Franchise alluded to, from the end of one then you're not gaining a day 2 pick this year. Doesn't make a whole bunch of sense to give up a 5th-year option and risk not getting your guy just to gain a 4th or 5th round pick. At that point, you have to ask for picks next year to make it relatively worthwhile and it's a 3rd next year. I'd have to be pretty damned confident I'd get my guy to pull that trade.

I think a trade up is WAY more likely than a trade down.

The more I look at trade up options, I just don't know about that either.

It would pretty much have to be for a DE I'd think. Maybe up to say, 21 or so. Could def see it.

Especially in this draft. I'd love to slide back to the 40's from 30.

The trade up for Lamar Jackson in 2018....Baltimore gave up 52 and 125 to Philly for 32 and 132. So they didn't even get a single pick back. Philly just traded down...so they could move up 7 spots in the 4th round.

I don’t think they trade into the teens. 20 is probably the highest.

The thing I start looking at there is the actual likely player they go up for. It's not likely one of the top 3 DE's get there, Karlaftis maybe?

The Vikings moved up from 40 to 32 for a 4th rounder.

In fact...nobody has overpaid since Cleveland did it in 2007 for Brady Quinn.

It would only be for Karlaftis or a WR IMO.

And Veach isn’t trading back for a 4th. He’s only doing it if he’s getting + value.

I think it would be for a DE...and only a DE. I'm not seeing them trade up for a WR. The team has more needs than just another WR to round out this room.

There's not much separation between the 4/5 and 8/9 WR's in this class it seems. Unless they see one of the top guys fall a bit and think he's got a super high ceiling, I don't think I'd trade up for one.

I kinda feel the same about the DE group though too.

I think the problem right now is that everyone uses PFN's mock draft and that thing just spits out trades to you left and right. Like I'm to believe that the Lions would trade a 3rd round pick to move up from 32 to 30 for Nakobe Dean?

The trades they offer don't follow any type of value system. I simmed an entire draft at one point and the Chiefs, before the Tyreek Hill trade, offered up their 1st and 2nd round picks this year and a 1st and 3rd round pick in 2023 to move up for Chris Olave.

I still think 29 or 30 gets traded for a current player.

They've done so little work on FA DE's. It would only make sense.