The future is hard to believe.
 

Look at this roster for 2023. It's ****ing madness.

QB: Mahomes, Buechele (RFA)
RB: Pacheco, McKinnon (easy re-sign), Edwards-Helaire
FB: Burton (easy re-sign)

WR: Valdez-Scantling, Moore, Watson (easy re-sign), Ross
TE: Kelce, Gray, Fortson (RFA)

LT: ???, Wanogho (RFA)
LG: Thuney, Wylie (easy re-sign)
C: Humphrey
RG: Smith, Wylie (easy re-sign)
RT: Niang, Wanogho (RFA)

DE: Danna, Kaindoh
DT: Jones, Wharton (RFA)
DT: ???
DE: Karlaftis,

WLB: Gay
MLB: Bolton, Chenal
SLB: Chenal, Cochrane (RFA)

CB: Sneed, McDuffie, Watson, Williams, Johnson
S: Reid, Cook, Bush (easy re-sign)

K: Butker
P: Townsend (RFA)
LS: Winchester

2023 Cap space: $45m with a Frank Clark cut, and even more with a Mahomes re-structure
2023 Draft picks: 12: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd (Poles), 4th, 4th (Hill), 5th, 6th, 6th (Hill), 6th (Ingram), 7th, 7th (Reed)

Key FA decisions to make:

LT Orlando Brown, Jr.: will he bring his price down?, will they franchise him again? might they actually tag-and-trade?
FS Juan Thornhill: a talented, sub-Pro Bowl player; obvious re-sign
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: seems like an obvious re-sign, price shouldn't be too bad
WR Mecole Hardman: he either signs a one-year prove-it or he walks
DT Khalen Saunders: he either signs a one-year prove-it or he walks
RB Jerick McKinnon: a must re-sign and should be cheap

They make a splash somewhere at DL in free agency. I think the Chiefs make the deals with Thornhill and JuJu. The Chiefs likely burn a 1st round pick (and goodies for a trade-up) to help fix the tackle situation if they need a LT, or they spend that 1st on the best DL they can get their mitts on if Brown comes to his senses and burns a 2nd day pick on RT.

They will draft a WR high, they may sniff out a top-end talent at RB somewhere for a steal, and then they just add depth in the trenches.

This team may win a Super Bowl this year. They shed Tyreek Hill, the best WR in the NFL, and still got better on offense. And they're going to have ungodly cap space, a dozen picks to stock this roster.

It's going to be absolutely disgusting how good this team is going to be next year, and for the foreseeable future. The Chiefs are in transition this year and still may win it all. If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl this year, we may legit be talking threepeat.

They're going to be that good.

At this point I don't see any reason to draft WRs high. I see a maybe 25% chance at best they'll develop. I think you integrate castoffs like Juju and MVS and hope they develop as the season progresses like you're seeing now.

Even if a drafted WR develops you're probably looking at year 3 before they really contribute in any meaningful way. In that case I think you're better getting someone in the 4th or 5th, patience should be expected for someone drafted at that point in the draft. A 1st/2nd round pick should contribute sooner than later and that's just not going to happen in KC.

Investments you make now make you better down the road. So yeah I think you make the investments.

Hardman didn't live up to the pick, but Skyy has a better skillset and I think will develop nicely by year 2. Right now he has three guys ahead of him and I think Watson might be taking some of his snaps too.

This is all going to change up by next year. Skyy is going to keep developing, MVS will probably be in his last year as a Chief, JuJu will be cheap against the cap on the first year of a new deal, Watson is cheap to sign. Justyn Ross will be coming off IR as well.

I can't see the Chiefs going WR in the 1st right now; they have multiple holes to fill on the DL and at least one gaping hole at OT.

But the Chiefs probably make a day two pick on a Z receiver prospect, and then draft some one-dimensional speed demon on the third day of the draft that Andy can do some cute things with.

Unless a big time WR prospect falls a bit and you wanna trade up for him, just keep swinging at those 2nd round ish WR's.

I'm of the opinion that Andy will want to keep the OL together as long as possible, so I think they sign OBJ to a long term deal at LT and consider LT thru RG done for a couple years.

Wouldn't be the worst idea to take a RT early but you've gotta attack the DL pretty hard.

They're just really in the spot where they don't need to shoe horn themselves into any one spot. Just keep stacking the BPA and depth and see what sticks.

I strongly disagree about OBJ and LT, but beyond that I’m not so sure they won’t be backed into a corner to address DL. The DL room is empty next year, and Chris Jones is in the last year of his deal. 2-3 DL picks are likely going to happen because they have no other choice.

Jones will sign an extension, they'll fill some around him, I'd guess that's a FA priority.

I'd be shocked if they don't extend Jones this offseason. Eventually you have to pay the Mahomes piper, and extending Jones this offseason, well look at the cap implications.

If you look through several elite DTs, the NFL only seems to give them that "cheap first year" about half the time.

The four DTs who are at Jones' level or within screaming distance of him:

Aaron Donald's first year cap hit: $27m
Leonard Williams: $9m
DeForest Buckner: $23m
Jonathan Allen: $7m

So it's really hit and miss. Jones' cap hit in his first year was $15m, which seems to split the difference.

Either way, you can probably save money on that first year, but I doubt you can save as much as you think you can. Should be enough to get the Chiefs to $50m in cap space though, assuming you bite the bullet this year on Mahomes/Kelce/Thuney, which you should.

For the record, if you tag Orlando Brown again, it's going to be about $20m to do.

You can tag him a third time, as well, but if the Chiefs can't sign Brown, they're probably going to be smart enough to tag and trade him in 2024.

Brown's going to have to come down to avoid that.

(Scenario 1) I think tagging Brown again next year is the way to go, probably for both parties. He'll make more than he should, and we don't have to commit ourselves long term.

(Scenario 2) The question is whether or not he wants to play on the tag, and if he doesn't, we'll offer him a discount deal in exchange for 3 years, giving us time to find a replacement.

(Scenario 3) If he demands a trade rather than play on the tag, we'll likely get a late first or a 2nd and change for him.

Either way, in all three scenarios, we come out ahead.

If we can find a difference maker at DE, a stable player at RT, and develop another star at WR, we are set up to destroy the world for the 2nd phase of Mahomes' career.

We won't get CLOSE to a late 1st for him. He was traded for the equivalent of a mid-2nd with 2 years at $19 million in salary in front of him. You think you'll get MORE for him with 1 year at $20 million?

Moreover, I hate the idea of tagging him again. You know what you've got. You'll have 2 full seasons of him here - either he's your future (in which case, LTC) or he's not. In which case, let him walk, bank the 3rd round comp pick and move along.

There's just little to no benefit to tagging him again and frankly it wouldn't surprise me if he refuses to play on it anyway. He just got a looooooot of money. Last season he had about $5 million in career earnings. Now he's got $20 million. He has little incentive to play on the tag at this point.

I was envisioning (in scenario 3) a trade contingent on a deal, unlike the one we did with the Ravens. I also figured that there’s a dip in the market for capable LT’s right now, and given our team’s success, perhaps someone would cough up the equivalent of a late first. You make a more than fair point that it would be a lower value than that, so you won’t get much pushback here.

Regarding the tag (scenario 1), I like the move because it gives us the extra year to find (or groom) his replacement, rather than throwing a FA JAG or Rookie at LT to protect the greatest QB who ever lived. The other option there is to let him walk and then trade for a starting LT, but then we are giving up draft capital and cap space for a (neutral?) player.

We don't have a great long-term option at RT either, though.

So I think that if you can't get OBJ signed to a reasonable extension, you let him walk, draft a guy, sign a veteran stop-gap and then retain Wylie.

The veteran stop gap (or even that RFA kid w/ the Packers some are clamoring for) could be the long-term RT. Or the draft pick could be the long-term RT. And in the interim, Wylie can continue to hold down the fort.

I mean its obviously not a perfect option, but it's an available one. And it's one that I'd prefer to retaining OBJ on the tag and with a $20 million cap hit.

Sign OBJ to a long term contract and move forward and be done with it.

See, I can't accept Wylie as a viable option at RT. He is a backup player and is mid on his best days. For me, he's the weakest link on the entire starting roster.

In this scenario, Wylie is the backup at both guard spots.

I'd say that's accurate.

He's there if the rookie can't get it done or if you take a gamble on a 2nd tier T who can't.

Now the issue is that if NEITHER of them can, you are in a world of shit because Wylie most assuredly cannot play LT.

Veach has to be bummed about Niang. From sitting out the Covid year to not being about to stay healthy. Without knowing the guy and being around him it just doesn’t seem he has the drive. Because skill wise I think he could have locked up one side of the line for the future.


Next years FA class is a little disappointing on the top end. I would love to plug in Hargraves or Jordan Phillips next to CJ. But seeing the cap space, and the FA class I wonder if a trade for a player due for an extension is in the cards

That cap space may dry up quickly depending on what they want to do.

Sneed, Gay, OBJ?, Thornhill, Juju, maybe Hardman.

Depends on their asking price

They're almost certainly going to pay JuJu and OBJ one way or another.

Hardman and Thornhill have replacements on the roster and could be overpaid on the free agent market.

They don't have to make any moves on Gay for another year, but they may want to act on Sneed now.

On OBJ...

I absolutely hate him as the Chiefs' LT. Let's not get confused about that.

As for this "theory" that the Chiefs will just automatically receive a 3rd round comp pick by letting him walk, well let's not put the horse before the cart.

Most of you guys understand the cancellation process that works within the confines of the CFA process but let me just reiterate that we can't assume the Chiefs will get anything for OBJ if Veach decides to use the money to invest in a like-round CFA or if he signs an equal amount of CFAs to CFAs lost.

For those of you considering the Chiefs might look into signing a guy like Chubb as a free agent, you might want to rethink the guarantee of a comp pick.

With that said, the safest mechanism to ensure compensation for OBJ is a tag and trade scenario. The real question is whether or not Veach would employ it. Surely OBJ has round 3 value to someone, and might even have round 2 value to someone. Using the tag on OBJ at the onset will give Veach and Co time to evaluate the prospects a bit more and see where things sit for them as a team as well.

So, as much as I don't want to see OBJ ever play another down for KC beyond this season, I really do expect him to get the tag again and ... God willing... he gets traded.

If he can't get paid as an LT here does he really have a shot getting paid elsewhere? If not why not just embrace changing positions?

Somebody will want him. He's not changing positions.

That's actually what you're supposed to do.

Hahaha, the synapses are running full bore over here.

I mean, the horse could get run over by the cart and all... :D

LMAO

I kinda doubt he plays on the tag again next year.

Still wish we woulda scored Trent Williams!

If we tag OBJ we have to pay him $20m, is that correct? = 3rd/4th highest paid tackle = not a bad deal actually

Top paid LTs
https://overthecap.com/position/left-tackle

You’ve got that right. And I agree it’s a good deal for us.

So many rookies playing on an 8-2 team.

The future is bright.

All we need on offense is a RT and depth in mid/later rounds. I think you can bring everyone back at WR next year except Hardman and be just fine.

RT, pass rusher and Safety to replace Thornhill is what I want to see early in the draft

I'd guess they just drafted the safety to replace Thornhill.

I kinda hope Thornhill is out a couple so we can get a good look at Cook.

IF the Chiefs believe in Brown AND he will sign for the type of extension they're comfortable with, the offseason path becomes a little easier to navigate.

I'm not sure they do that, though.

With Toney now our WR room and Moore finally having a big game looks fairly stacked for next year.

If we do a cheap resign on Watson then we could 3 WRs on the roster for next to nothing.

I think we could then cut MVS and save $7m on the cap to spend elsewhere.

I think we could then resign Juju or get a 2nd/3rd round pick in the draft. There really is nothing in free agency next year other than Juju.

We are in a great position at WR now and have proved that we can do it with a WR by comittee which means we shouldn't spend big on anyone now.

Would love to put the resources into the tackle position and then the defence now.

Isn't that crazy?

Here's what the depth chart is now, projecting an easy Justin Watson re-sign:

I do think you re-sign JuJu, and hell I'd keep MVS one more year.

Moore, Watson, rounding out the bottom of that depth chart, with a flyer on Justyn Ross.

Honestly you may not need to draft a WR at all.

I wouldn't be opposed to drafting another WR, even high, if there's a guy that falls a bit that you think can be a real alpha, but I think they kinda went with the WRBC approach and they should stick to that.

Just stack the room with as many good players as you can and let them fight it out.

I'm not automatically opposed to that but they have to fix the DL and that's going to require heavy early round investments the next couple of years.

Our four rotational DEs have less than 10 sacks on the year so far. (Dunlap 4, Clark 3, Danna 2, Karlaftis 0.5.) Jones/Saunders have racked up 11.5 combined and Spags' blitzes have added an additional 10.

I think we all believe Karlaftis will develop into a solid sack guy, but they need to make multiple investments at DE and probably another one or two at DT.

At some point, they need to have a deeper-than-league-average, lethal passrush with their four down lineman. Because teams are passing it on us more than almost any other team in the league.

That's really the one place I look at this roster and I see a weak depth chart heading into next year. Veach has really let this position wither on the vine a little while stacking up everywhere else.

And we've let the trade deadline go, and Burns/Allen/Chubb got away from us.

It's time to course correct and they have to do it in the draft.

Interestingly, I think it was the absence of JJSS and not the absence of Hardman that led to greater opportunity for Moore.

I'm not 100% convinced you NEED JJSS back if Moore can get you 60-70 yards and some key 3rd downs in that role.

Though if you let him go (and if MVS continues to shrink in larger opportunities, likely leading to his release) you end up awfully small at WR again. Not to mention shallow.

I just don't know that JJSS and Moore are terribly complementary players. Especially not with Kelce out there occupying the same areas on the field.

Cook looked to be very much a box safety last night. He was getting cooked {rimshot} in space.

It's just not his style. He's more akin to Justin Reid than he is Juan Thornhill.

Oh I definitely think you have to do what you gotta do and go heavy on the DL.

But they are kind of at the point where they can't just ignore any spot and go heavy on one only.

They need to just continue to add talent across the board. You just never know where a spot will pop up and you need to save some money or save a spot etc.

For instance, if there's a guy you really like that plays T is there in the 2nd or so, go ahead and draft the guy. Or hell, I wouldn't be opposed to taking a DE or DT in back to back picks if that's the way it shakes out.

In the 4th quarter (maybe even that final drive) Karlaftis absolutely roasted the RT to 'half a man' and had him beat...and then looked like a semi-truck trying to turn the corner.

I just don't think his game will ever be 'plus sack guy'. He impacted that play by moving Herbert off his spot; probably got credited with a hurry. But that's exactly the kind of nominal pressure that can inflate pressure numbers in a way that doesn't necessarily lead to sacks at any point.

He just could not get himself turned at all.

They've got him back there in that role though, gotta just hope he learns and develops. He seemed to be in on some plays at least but I'm not too sure that's a good thing.

That is something you can coach up. There is technique to that, and after a year, maybe two, you'll see him rack up around 6-8 sacks on the regular.

I do agree with your assessment, and I don't blame Veach for drafting him -- we had nothing in the DE room and he's a high energy guy who can give you 60 quality snaps a game for 17 games -- but we are in need of some dynamism off the edge. Of our passrushers, Frank Clark in "good" mode and maybe only Danna threatens a tackle's outside shoulder with any regularity.

That has to change.

Yeah, he didn't exactly bend much there. I just don't think that's his game or will be. He can definitely improve a bit at it and be a good player, but I think he's a bit capped.

It's not Dunlap's game either, but Dunlap is a technician.

Give him another year or so of Joe Cullen and he's going to have all kinds of nuances that allow him to create space and finish the play.

I don’t see any external FA’s I’m willing to really spend on like we did with Tyrann Matheiu and Sammy Watkins.

I see some I’d give an MVS/Justin Reid 2nd wave contract to like DJ Chark, Von Bell, Nelson Agholor and others.

Some other guys I’d add that are not quite that much like Arden Key as well as your older vet like DE Carlos Dunlap or Melving Ingram.

But ultimately Brett Veach has made it clear he wants the majority of the team to be young. I think you just keep taking highly grade players. Then take your OL, corners and athletic freaks on day 3.

Dunlap is so long and so powerful, though.

You see some of those technician sorts use the OT to help them corner, but that often requires using length to create levers off the OT, and incredible functional strength.

I think George has the latter but I'm not sure he has the former.

I like Dawuane Smoot as a FA.

Wow Smoot looks good and has been very consistent for years. Sign me up for a fair contract.

I’m all for the numbers game over paying one guy a ton.

Honestly this might be the way to go bc finding a RT won’t be easy. They are not available often in FA and if they are they’re expensive.

I think our first rd pick is gonna be a tackle

Ill be honest, not a huge fan of Thornhill.

Can't remember the last time the guy made a huge play.

Yeah I’m sadly accepting that Juan is a JAG as well. Just hasn’t turned into the ball-hawking dude we had hoped for.

He’s not a major liability, but he’s not a pro-bowler. He’s just a guy.

Smoot is a good-not-great.

Prince Tega Wenogho is not a world beater and he handled Smoot very well.

This DL needs more great. There’s just nothing in FA this year.

... nothing at DE

There are some intriguing names at DT, potentially.

He was talking about having a Pro Bowl year at the start of the season. He's not been close to that. Such a frustrating player. He'll probably leave and excel but for whatever reason I don't think it's happening here. Horrible tackler, lazy coverage, massive inconsistency. Really wanted them to prioritise keeping him but now I think we let him go.

That means RT, DE, DT and safety are the areas we need imo. Not sure I want to dump more money into the latter given Reid hasn't looked great either. I wouldn't hate seeing more of Bush and drafting late. Think we can get middling DEs and DTs at reasonable cost in FA and draft as well.

I think we should be trying to get an IDL or a Safety in the second round next year which usually gets you a starting quality player in those positions.

Whichever we don't end up with we can target in free agency. Jessie Bates and Jordan Poyer are free agents currently at saftey and there are quite a few interesting options on the Interior of the line.

I think the main thing we need to start thinking about is how to replace Kelce in 2-3 years time. We want to be in a position to already have another top recieving option embedded by the time he leaves. So that probably means drafting a WR in the first round in 2024.

I disagree. All the best names at DT are 3-techs, and we're two-deep at 3-tech once we tender Wharton. Obviously, the Chiefs should bring in another 3-tech, but they're going to be rotational, not a stud.

The Chiefs have zero -- zero -- 1-techs under contract for 2023, and there's a couple names I love there but I wouldn't call them intriguing.

Looking for a true 1-tech is never super interesting (it's a pretty boring position), true.

But I see some names at DT that would be pretty interesting/exciting. Da'Ron Payne, if he gets to free agency, among them (Commanders may franchise tag him, but it is not an easy decision). He's capable of playing the 1-tech and has made big strides as a pass rusher. Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave both have plenty left in the tank and each offers big upgrades as a pass rusher. Onyemata, too.

I guess my thought is that if you're looking to upgrade the pass rush, adding another kick-ass pass rushing DT shouldn't be completely discounted.

Well, I'd start with bringing back Saunders, but that's just me.

I kind of can't believe I'm writing this, but I think we have to try and keep JuJu over MVS.
MVS hasn't done much to change my basic opinion of his capabilities, which is to say they are limited.

JuJu is more of the Swiss Army knife kind of player Andy values. mostly I think it's his size and physicality. He's really an undersized TE.

If you keep JJSS, then it's KT, Moore, and maybe Hardman, if you can get him on the cheap.

Regardless, I bet Andy and Veach go WR shopping next year. Hope there are a couple nice ones in the third/fourth rounds.

If we don't keep Frank Clark, does anyone think we could get a draft pick for him in a trade even if it is a late round pick?

I would keep Juju as long as it isn't ridiculous money.

Absolutely no way.

I don’t think a team wants to trade for Frank Clark.

If he continues performing well, some shit team with no passrush will pay him like $3m next year in August to play a rotational role.

Yeah, us.

Sure, I'd do that. I'd pay him $3m base, and a $10m bonus if he hits double digit sacks.

On the off chance he made it, the $10m goes on the next year's cap I believe (but he won't.)

But he'd have good reason to be super motivated every week.

Nope. He can get the **** off this team.

I do think his time in KC is over, no matter what. He's just too toxic and the on field production is too inconsistent.

That being said... he does bring elements we're going to miss. He's still somewhat a leader in the locker room. He's disciplined in his cutback responsibilities, does a good job setting the edge, has registered a ton of pressures this season, and that play he made against the Rams, where he submarined two separate pulling offensive linemen... I mean no other DE on this team could make that play. That was 2019 Frank Clark, right there, just an unbelievable play.

His time in KC is over, but that doesn't mean we won't miss some of the stuff he does. The best solution to that is for Veach to actually upgrade the DE position. I think it means being aggressive in the 1st round to move up and get the guy you need.

I think Karlaftis is just some technique work away from being a 10-sack guy. Danna has been solid in a rotational role.

And I think this team needs to have a conversation about Carlos Dunlap that they didn't think they'd be having earlier in the season. Dunlap is starting to feel necessary for 2023.

2023 Cap space:
$45m with a Frank Clark cut
+Chris Jones Extension
+Mahomes re-structure

How much money cap room have I made?

LT Orlando Brown, Jr: Tag him
FS Juan Thornhill: Resign
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: Resign
WR Mecole Hardman: Walks
WR MVS: Walks
DT Khalen Saunders: Resign
RB Jerick McKinnon: Resign

How much money cap room have I spent?

Thornhill die was cast when they drafted cook in the 2nd round

I don’t think they can afford to lose both MVS and Hardman. They’ll likely keep MVS since Hardman is priced out.

I see a lot of effort that’s gonna go into DL and another speed receiver that plays ST’s

Wr in round 1 wouldn’t be out of the question

Wouldn’t this be the ideal time to take a LT in the 1st and let him play RT for year 1 and transition him to LT next year? With OBJ on the tag?

Jalin Hyatt


Man would I LOVE him on the Chiefs


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If Jalin Hyatt blows the door off the combine with his 40 time he may not even make it to the back half of Rd1… but if he does he should 1000% be on the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bills?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bills</a> radar. <br><br>Same system that produced Gabriel Davis. <br><br>NFL Comp: Healthy Will Fuller. <a href="https://t.co/BdA9QczeiF">pic.twitter.com/BdA9QczeiF</a></p>&mdash; Air Raid | Buffalo (@TheBillsGuys) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheBillsGuys/status/1604967097884463107?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 19, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jalin Hyatt will eat up any cushion you give him <a href="https://t.co/szF8FmQNgB">pic.twitter.com/szF8FmQNgB</a></p>&mdash; Tyler Browning (@DiabeticTyler) <a href="https://twitter.com/DiabeticTyler/status/1604873669049712641?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 19, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


One of the knocks I saw on Hyatt all year was that there’s not a lot of tape on how good of a route runner he is or can he win a contested ball because he hasn’t really had to. He just blows by everyone

It's like the anti-Drake London.

Hmm…. Is he faster than mvs? Physically, he looks similar to mvs?

Yup, he's my #1 guy but I have zero hope we can get him.

I found myself watching a lot of Vol’s football this year. Reallllly fun team.

Obviously WR isn’t on the top of my list, but if he makes it to us I would be all over it. Another comparison that I kind of get. Poor man’s Jameson Williams… who if rumors were true.. Veach was infatuated with

If we were to take Hyatt, MVS is obviously out. Which I’d be all about. I’ve never had less faith in one of our guys bringing in a target than I am with him. And that’s including Demarcus Robinson