Josh Allen is Philip Rivers 2.0
 

So watching the Bills lose to the Vikings, it hit me watching Josh Allen on the bench pouting that he is a less mature version of Philip Rivers. This made me go on a stat finding mission to compare Allen to Rivers... and in in order to be fair to the media perception (& to prove what we all already know), compared Mahomes' stats as well.

We all KNOW that Mahomes is better than Allen (and if you don't, please look again). But the next time you have some Bills lover arguing, here are the facts...

Since both Mahomes & Allen have 4.5 years worth of stats to compare, I think its fair... and I grabbed the first 5 full years of Rivers' stats for the comparison. These are all averaged out based on the the actual number of games played (Excel spreadsheet available if anyone wants to double check). Here is what came to be:

# of Games Played for stat comparison:
Rivers: 80 games from 2006 - 2010
Allen: 70 games from 2018 - 2022
Mahomes: 71 from 2018-2022

Completion/Attempt/Comp%/Yards - per Game Average
Rivers: 19.34 / 30.31 / 63.79% / 243.91
Allen: 20.93 / 33.43 / 62.61% / 240.67
Mahomes: 24.97 / 37.69 / 66.26% / 304.83

TD/TD% per Att/Int/Int% per Att - per Game Average
Rivers: 1.69 TD / 5.57% / .71 INT / 2.35%
Allen: 1.76 TD / 5.26% / .81 INT / 2.39%
Mahomes: 2.48 TD / 6.58% / .61 INT / 1.61%

First Down %/Avg Rating/Avg QBR/Sacks/Sack Yds - per Game Average
Rivers: 39.46% / 97.22 Rating / 65.84 QBR / 1.71 sacks / 10.65 sk yds
Allen: 36.54% / 89.84 Rating / 62.16 QBR / 1.94 sacks / 12.37 sk yds
Mahomes: 42.86% / 106.38 Rating / 75.38 QBR / 1.54 sacks / 9.89 sk yds

Josh Allen is a Good QB - but he is NOT Mahomes. He is Philip Rivers 2.0 - but a little less mature in my opinion. Rivers had 2 years of sitting. So Average Age for them is

Rivers: 27
Allen: 24
Mahomes: 25

So maybe we will see Allen mature a little more, but he is no Mahomes.

*all stats compiled from www.pro-football-reference.com

Good stuff. Thanks, Dave.

And, of course anyone with a brain knows that Allen is not on Mahomes' level.

What's with that image? Why don't you just link your original post?

Not that I disagree with the premise (although Allen is better than rivers, whether that be because of supporting cast and coaches or talent) but I would be curious and I think a better comparison would be if you removed Allen's first year. He's a much better player than he was his first year.

Wouldn't totally shock me either if homeboy also rocks a minivan as his daily driver

Stats aside, Allen lacks Mahomes' IQ. What these last few games have shown is his lack of awareness when to go for the checkdown. And as I have repeatedly stated here, he lacks touch. Another QB who lacks touch in his throws -> Justin Herbert.
I still think Herbert has a more accurate arm than Allen but both lack that intangible that a QB needs to finnish off a game in crunch time. Throwing with touch. Manipulating the speed of the ball.

Allen is going to have to go through a talent reduction eventually just like Mahomes did.

Could he survive with just Gabe Davis and McKenzie at WR? Possibly. Right now I’m not so sure

i think allen got a big head from that throw to knox that beat us

that was a throw into a tight window, and if reid had been a step faster to the ball, it's picked

now he thinks he can fire it in anywhere and be the hero

CHICKENS ROOSTING

"Change my mind"

They're going to lose Gabe Davis after this year most likely...good chance in 2 years Diggs and Davis are both gone.

A steaming cold take

Allen already has more playoff success than Rivers.

Plus, his running game and mobility are a weapon. Rivers was a statue with a strong arm and poor decision making skills in clutch moments.

Nah...he's more like Steve Young if he gets him a SB eventually...or Danny White (minus the injuries) if he comes up short.

Might not always have a Top 5 defense either. That said, Allen is a million times better than Rivers. Stronger arm and extremely dangerous running the ball, plus he's very effective at scrambling to setup downfield throws. Rivers could not do either of those things with his legs.

LOL

steve young was smart enough to be an absolute top-shelf lawyer

josh allen came out of wyoming

gtfo of here with that comparison

Allen scored 37 on the Wonderlic test, which is higher than the likes of Steve Young, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, & Patrick Mahomes. The dude isn't some braindead dipshit like Vince Young or JaMarcus Russell.

Skill set wise, he absolutely is more like Steve Young...who was better than Phyllis Rivers...and Allen is better than Rivers. Young also barely got him a SB...which will be Allen's fate, if he even gets one at all.

In a league where Mahomes doesn’t exist, Allen would be the best QB.

Was that ever said of Rivers?

Rivers could also process the field a 1000 times better than Allen and was more accurate with deadly anticipation.

Allen has area code accuracy.

Honestly, I think Burrow is better.

Didn't Steve Young win multiple SBs? Why do I think he won 2 or 3?

Don't trust Wonderlic anymore. I think agents prepare them now, it's not the same as it was.

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Last couple of games I've been picking up a shellfish allergic version of Jameis Winston vibe.

Yeah, Steve Young won 3 SBs. And a huge pile of other NFL awards/achievements, including twice named NFL MVP.

Josh Allen has a very long way to go to be on the same level as Steve Young.

Josh Allen's running ability makes him better than Rivers if that's what we're doing here is comparing those two. Bring Mahomes into the mix and yea, he smokes both of them. It's really not even close. Mahomes could retire tomorrow and lets be honest you could argue he's hall of fame material.

So if we remove the first year for each player, this actually hurts Mahomes some (5000+ yds, 50 TD season)... here are the numbers:

# of Games Played for stat comparison:
Rivers: 64 games from 2007 - 2010
Allen: 58 games from 2019 - 2022
Mahomes: 55 from 2019 - 2022

Completion/Attempt/Comp%/Yards - per Game Average
Rivers: 19.73 / 30.70 / 64.27% / 251.95
Allen: 22.34 / 34.83 / 64.16% / 254.71
Mahomes: 25.27 / 38.11 / 66.32% / 300.84

TD/TD% per Att/Int/Int% per Att - per Game Average
Rivers: 1.77 TD / 5.75% per Att / .75 INT / 2.44% per Att
Allen: 1.95 TD / 5.59% per Att / .76 INT / 2.18% per Att
Mahomes: 2.29 TD / 6.01% per Att / .56 INT / 1.48% per Att

First Down %/Avg Rating/Avg QBR/Sacks/Sack Yds - per Game Average
Rivers: 40.20% / 98.53 Rating / 65.45 QBR / 1.72 sacks / 11.06 sk yds
Allen: 37.92% / 95.33 Rating / 65.25 QBR / 1.86 sacks / 11.26 sk yds
Mahomes: 42.22% / 104.53 Rating / 74.15 QBR / 1.51 sacks / 9.65 sk yds

Even after removing Allen's WORST season and arguably Mahomes' best season, it still proves the premise that Allen = Rivers (version 2.0)

Steve was on the bench for 2 of his rings. Montana won them. Steve was the starting QB for 1 ring.

Weren’t two of those as backup to Montana?

That Steve Young comparison isn't good, Young was a much headier player. He didn't run cause he had to it was when it was the best play...he also didn't think he was a badass trucking defenders...

Young would take a check down over running or making a dumb pass.

ah, that's right.

However, Steve's list of accomplishments is long, too long for me to type in here (because I'm kind of feeling lazy today and because there's a lot of it).

Josh ain't anywhere near Steve young. Not yet, anyway.

Yes, Mahomes could never play another game and he's already accomplished enough to be a HOFer. probably a first ballot HOFer.

Have you ever taken the test? It’s not like 2+2=4. It’s not something you just prepare for and get some super high score.

Almost no people in the NFL would agree with you.

ya, it comes down to can you win in the playoffs with this QB?

Rivers never had much success there, and there were some really talented charger teams.

These type of comparisons happen all the time, even in the Draft when a kid hasn't done anything. Obviously they have to stick around for a long time to have the overall career of anyone they are compared against.

Tech folks like myself were comparing Mahomes' talent to guys like Rodgers & Favre when he was a 19 year old true freshman. Allen has amazing talent as well. He's kind of a freak when you look at his body size, strong running ability, rocket arm, and high Wonderlic score. Some guys have the physical talent and zero brain (JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Cam Newton).

These young guys like Allen or Mahomes have to stick around a long time to have the type of overall career of guys like Steve Young or Rodgers/Favre. Only time will tell, but they both have tremendous potential.

Unfair comparison based on eras. Today...Young would be running more. My comment was more about skill-set...not about the actual offense the offense these two guys have been given to run.

Where do people get this shit from? He’s already won a playoff game which way quicker than rivers did. And he lost last year despite having an absurdly good performance. He’s been extremely good this year save for a recent funk which includes late game heroics against us. I like our guy but find it weird to undersell the guy. He’s a really good player and seems like a good dude. It’s just that our dude is better. He may be way more Aaron rodgers than he is Philip rivers.

Exactly. QB's aren't winning Super Bowls by themselves, but in Rivers' case, I don't know if he ever made a Conference championship, let alone win a Super Bowl. The Chargers were usually missing the playoffs or losing quickly in the playoffs. You'd think he could at least steal a few big games before going down in flames.

Allen's game against the Chiefs last year was better than any big game Rivers played.

Concur.

Allen is a physical beast. I'll even say that he's a far better overall athlete than Young and possesses the better arm.

If he had Mahomes' processing ability and football acumen, he'd probably be the best that has ever played, eventually. heck, if he had Young's processing ability he'd probably be a lock to get one.

But he doesn't, thank God.

Not yet, anyway.

Allen could still go on and win a SB someday, in my opinion. He's talented enough, more than.

And he's come a long way from his first couple seasons.

As you say, time will tell.

Not to completely derail this thread, but i think Young would be throwing more today. He's said as much when questioned about playing today.

Back then, the middle of the field was kind of off-limits. Because things like what happened to Juju Sunday were completely legal, even encouraged by the NFL. Guys like Ronnie Lott and Steve Atwater, just to name a couple, were paid what they were paid to knock receivers' heads off if they tried to catch passes between the numbers. So, while they still threw over the middle, in general QBs were a lot more careful about when and where and how often they did so.

His first 2 years definitely drag down any comparison or average.
Here are the stats over the last 3 seasons:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The past 3 seasons (start of 2020)…<br><br>Josh Allen: 66%, 111 TD’s, 33 INT, 18 lost fumbles<br>Pat Mahomes: 66%, 101 TD’s, 25 INT, 11 lost fumbles<br><br>Allen is +60 in Net TD’s (touchdown minus turnovers). Mahomes is +65 in Net TD’s.<br><br>The numbers are as close to equal as you can get.</p>&mdash; Bills Stats &amp; More (@Tickets_Buffalo) <a href="https://twitter.com/Tickets_Buffalo/status/1591833816947396608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 13, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Patrick Mahomes has played in only 2 more regular season games in his career than Josh Allen has YET has 5,080 more passing yards, 53 more passing TDs, 12 fewer INTs and 307 more 1st downs. <br><br>All of that in only 2 more games. <a href="https://t.co/7hRWAJMAdz">pic.twitter.com/7hRWAJMAdz</a></p>&mdash; ����‼️ (@LanceTHESPOKEN) <a href="https://twitter.com/LanceTHESPOKEN/status/1592669185296936962?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 16, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Yes.

I suspect that agents get copies now.

Dumb.

Allen gets used as a fullback on the goaline.

Here are the stats if you take away rushing TD’s for both QB’s:

Josh Allen: 66%, 93 TD’s, 33 INT
Pat Mahomes: 66%, 96 TD’s, 25 INT

Josh Allen reminds me so much of Randall Cunningham.

And you're cherry picking years too.

Yes I mentioned in the post you originally quoted that Allen’s first 2 years drag down any comparison. Then I showed what it looked like in the past 3 seasons. I was very transparent.

The person I originally quoted made the same point (that Allen’s early years will not be an accurate reflection of his play today).

ROFL

I'm confused as to why the qb ratings and qbr is so much lower for all of them with their first season removed.

Patrick Mahomes has played in only 2 more regular season games in his career than Josh Allen has YET has 5,080 more passing yards, 53 more passing TDs, 12 fewer INTs and 307 more 1st downs.

All of that in only 2 more games.

Why?

And so some agents get it and others don’t?

Please share your evidence here.

(I realize you have no evidence and are talking out of your ass but I’ll play along.)

And please provide a screenshot of your completed Wonderlic test and score for fun.

He has a tendency to do that ;)

Shut up da quix.

He can’t keep running like he does he won’t last in the league

How about this one. Josh Allen has been eliminated 2 years in a row by Mahomes in the NFL playoffs.

I started a post earlier and then got distracted, along the lines of "can you please run these stats again, but cherry pick the Allen stats to only include the past couple seasons while also highlighting rushing stats, then post to Twitter so we can embed".

And hey, it happened.

I think I posted on a similar thread but ill just post similarily here.

Josh Allen already has more postseason success than Rivers ever did, and its not for a lack of quality teams the Chargers had.

Allen is an elite QB and if it weren't for the most powerful dose of Mahomes Magic and a coin flip, we lose in the Divisional and the narrative is MUCH different. Its quite early to be counting him out simply because the Bills have lost a few games. It's not like Mahomes wasn't THE reason why we've lost games in the past, similar to whats going on with Allen right now.

Its not like I love Allen, I hate his guts, but I respect his talent enough to know its way too early to act like Josh Allen will now suddenly fall off a cliff for the rest of his career.

I don't think anyone is arguing he's not a top 5 QB.

His problem is he started in the league the same year and in the same conference as a truly generational talent in Mahomes.

Yeah I get that, and I'm sure we're all quite sick of the media downplaying Mahomes and looking for literally anyone to dethrone him.

But its hard to argue that Allen and the Bills aren't are our equals at this point, both talent-wise and organization-wise. Calling him Rivers 2.0 is quite a silly comparison. Rivers probably doesn't make it to the HOF, Mahomes and Allen are probably first ballot.

You don’t see any value in comparing recent stats that reflect a players current playing ability rather than lump in a rookie season where he played like crap?

There's a possibility Burrow is better

For the people who aren't good at the maths, that means Patrick averaged an astounding 2,540 yds, 26.5 TDs, and 153.5 1st downs in those two extra games.

Without even looking it up I'm going to go ahead say that's a world record over a two-game span.

why won't the NFL show us josh allen's passing chart?

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/...-bills/2022/10

Rivers had Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger & the Pit defense to contend with. Other than Mahomes it's been Lamar, Tanhill and Baker

Patrick Mahomes is 9th in the NFL in on-target percentage this season.

Josh Allen is 34th.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...g_advanced.htm

here's another fun one

josh allen has been pressured less than anyone in football (12.4% pressure rate)

patrick mahomes has been pressured 18th most (20.8%)

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...g_advanced.htm

Gonna have to be Jimmy G and have the WRs reach for the stars on most throws

One of those was the Rams game for sure.

Justin Herbert is Phillip Rivers 2.0

Any idea how they measure on-target? Is it like a guy that just says “yeah, that’s on target” or “nah, that’s a bad pass”?

I wouldn’t have expected Geno Smith and Daniel Jones to be above Mahomes in that.

Josh Allen is an example of why u never go full re tard

Yeah this is a good comparison.

Also I would compare Allen more-so to Brett Fabre. I mean, Favre would do some head scratching dumb shit sometimes. Allen does too.

they watch josh throw the football and tell everyone else "don't do that"

Hahahaha - that's good stuff right there!!!

That seems like the better example. Herbert finds ways to lose games yet gets insane hype. I’m glad the media is ending the ridiculous narrative of trying to slam mahomes. But man, if mahomes wasn’t our qb, any team would be really lucky to have josh Allen as theirs. The more I think about it he will probably be more elway. Being not as good as a qb who will undoubtedly win multiple mvps is nothing to be ashamed of