Clearing up the 1 seed situation
 

Yes, this needs it's own thread due to the amount of people in other threads that clearly don't understand how this works. I've seen several people ask "If the Bills win tomorrow, does Andy rest his starters next week" and I've even seen someone post that if the Bills lose tomorrow, we can rest Thuney for the playoffs.

So, in plain and clear language, here is the deal:


There is no scenario in which the 1 seed can be clinched by anyone tomorrow. If the Bills win, they still need to beat NE unless we lose to the Raiders. If the Bills lose, we still need to beat the Raiders, unless the Bills lose to the Patriots. If Cinci wins out and we lose to the Raiders, they are the 1 seed.

Again and most importantly for this thread, there is no chance the Chiefs are not playing for a shot at the one seed next week. The Bills can win 764-2 and everyone with a pulse will play for the Chiefs next week.

That is all.

Okay.

But what if BUF scores 765?

What if Buffalo/Cincy ends in a tie?

Yeah, we're not resting anybody next week. Except maybe Thuney.

I do think Reid should give Toub the rest of his career off tho

Yes, it is time to fly a banner. I put in the first five-dollar bill.

Honestly, thank you OP.

Too many dumbasses can’t follow a pretty simple scenario.

Same as a Bills loss.

KC moves into 1 seed.

While tomorrow doesn’t clinch anything, I will be surprised to see KC or Buffalo losing in week 17.

My one seed is in play

I'll go 2nd.

Yeah.. Its only on every football show gone over again and again..

If a train leaves Chicago heading East at 2pm and a train leaving New York heading West leaves at 4pm, what time do they collide in Pittsburgh?

You expect him to snap the ball and hold it too???

So Denver still has a chance?

Morons STILL think that the Chiefs can rest whoever, show up, and steam roll any team with a losing record.

No team has shown that ability

Bills lose Monday - makes them 12-4, Bengals win - makes them 12 - 4

Next week both Bills and Bengals lose, their games have a 1PM starting time.

So both of those teams are 12 - 5 after their loss.

The Chiefs are 13 - 3, their game starts at 4PM or later. Chiefs can rest their players in this scenario.

All game times are still TBD as of now.

If Buffalo wins tomorrow, how confident are you the Patriots have a snowball's chance in hell winning in Buffalo? If you think New England has little to no chance, sitting the staters should be entertained as an option. The Chiefs would be locked into the #2 seed. Of course anything is possible, the question is are you willing to risk injuries while relying on the inept Patriots to score points.

The games are all TBD because the NFL will never give the Chiefs that advantage and schedule the Bills and Bengals games at 1pm.

There will be a lot of late starts.

Patriots have a better chance next Sunday than the Dolphins did in 2019. Simple as that.

Mac Jones is no Ryan Fitzpatrick.

If that happens and Buffalo is up big on the Faketriots at halftime… and assuming their game is scheduled to be at the same time as Chiefs/Raiders… does Andy start pulling starters in the second half?

Hopefully that is all a non issue with Buffalo losing to Cincy.

Buffalo will skull **** that pile of shit team from Boston.

Mac Jones may play defense to hit Allen

The Patriots were favored by 16 points in that game against the Dolphins.

Pretty confident Bills/Patriots will be tighter than that.

It's not likely at all (I have a very low opinion of the Pats overall) but if Fitzpatrick can beat the Brady Patriots, the Patriots can beat the Allen Bills.

They're clearly not resting anybody.

True, but Fitzpatrick was capable of putting up elite performances. Not sure Mac can or will be capable of doing that.

I think Belichick defensive magic is every bit as powerful as Fitzmagic offensive spell casting.

The scenarios are simple. After we play a barnburner against a garbage team next week and win by the skin of our teeth, we need Buffalo to lose tomorrow or to the Pats.

Clueless ****s on here...

Lmao...13-3-1 bills win last game. 14-3 chiefs win last game. Who has the better record...

I get that feeling too. To be honest, I hate Cincy and their dumbass chili, so I won’t be terribly upset if the Bills do win tomorrow.

Games that matter next week (updated after Steelers win):

Chiefs at Raiders: KC get 1 seed (Bills loss + Chiefs win), 2 seed (no Bills loss + Chiefs win), or 3 seed (Bills win + Bengals win + Chiefs loss)

Ravens at Bengals: Bengals get 1 seed (win out + Chiefs loss), 2 seed (win out + no Chiefs loss), 3 seed (loss to Bills tomorrow + win vs Ravens next week + Chiefs loss vs Raiders next week), or 5 seed (loss to Bills tomorrow + loss to Ravens next week)

Patriots at Bills: Patriots get 7 seed (Patriots win vs Bills or Dolphins loss)

Jets at Dolphins: Dolphins get 7 seed (Dolphins win vs Jets + Patriots loss)

Browns at Steelers: Steelers get 7 seed (Steelers win vs Browns + Patriots loss + Dolphins loss)

Vikings at Bears: Vikings get 2 seed (Vikings win vs Bears + 49ers loss) or 3 seed (Vikings loss or 49ers win)

Lions at Packers: Packers get 7 seed (Packers win vs Lions) or Lions get 7 seed (Lions win vs Packers + Seahawks loss)

Rams at Seahawks: Seahawks get 7 seed (Seahawks win vs Rams + Packers loss)

Cards at 49ers: 49ers get 1 seed (49ers win + Eagles loss), 2 seed (49ers win + Eagles win), 3 seed (49ers loss)

Giants at Eagles: Eagles get 1 seed (Eagles win or Eagles loss + 49ers loss + Cowboys loss), 2 seed (Eagles loss + 49ers win + Cowboys loss), or 5 seed (Eagles loss + 49ers win + Cowboys win)

Cowboys at Commanders: Cowboys get 1 seed (Cowboys win + 49ers loss + Eagles loss), 2 seed (Cowboys win + 49ers win + Eagles loss), or 5 seed (Cowboys loss or Cowboys win + Eagles win)

Cinci will win at home against Buffalo - CHIEFS WILL get 1st seed. Nothing to see here.

Andy, and the rest of the team, had better not be paying any attention at all to any game other than the one they are playing.

This is Kornacki level, thank you!

It is what it is. Buffalo, Cincy, and KC are all dead even IMO. If KC plays their game nobody can beat them, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

Andy should go Ron Rivera

Just start Henne next week and pretend he didn’t know we made the playoffs.

Andy be like, we coulda had the one seed?

Could have made this easier. The Chiefs must finish with a better record than the Bill's and the Bengals.

Whoa now! He doesn’t need to go to that extreme.

If the Bills win tomorrow and the Ravens win tonight the Patriots will probably beat the Bills since the Bengals will no longer have anything left to play for and the Chiefs will probably just rest starters since they’ll be locked in at the two seed.

Okay now do it again since the Steelers won

Did you read the OP? Chiefs aren't locked in at the 2 seed if the Bills win tomorrow. Both the Bills and Chiefs will be going full out to win next week regardless of the outcome in Bills/Bengals.

Assuming the Ravens beat the Steelers E=MC2.

Uh, better start over.

Are you questioning my understanding of the scenarios? It’s pretty clearly laid out!

Bengals win Bills could draw Ravens. Allen struggled against their D.

There's no scenario in which the Pats will probably beat the Bills because there's no scenario where the Bills have nothing to play for. They want the 1 seed.

Now there is.

If the Bills lose to the Bengals and we beat the Raiders, the Bills have nothing to play for.

You are missing the point. The Pats will win because of the Bengals having nothing to play for. It’s a complex relationship but it’s there!

They would still be playing for the two seed so they’d play.

not if the bengals play first and win

Not necessarily. In that scenario, if Buf wins week 18 and Cinci loses, Buf moves back to the 2 seed.

Well sure but can’t see them having those games at different times for just that reason.

Nope KC moved to Sat

With the Chiefs not able to play a noon game it must have been too difficult to have them play at 3 pm on Sunday and then move every other game affected by our outcome which basically seems like every AFC game since so many other scenarios depend on Bills and Bengals games.

Now there is after that schedule release (which potentially really helps the Patriots and really hurts the Dolphins), yes. But not before that.

Clearing up the 1 seed situation
 

The only way (assuming same game time as Bengals) the Bills can rest people is if they win tomorrow and we lose Saturday. This tells me the fix is in for the Bills to lose tomorrow.

You seem to forget Fitzmagic. Anything can happen.

This is really dumb. You play your starters, no question.

Updated original post but putting here also:

Games that matter next week:

Chiefs at Raiders: KC get 1 seed (Bills loss + Chiefs win), 2 seed (no Bills loss + Chiefs win), or 3 seed (Bills win + Bengals win + Chiefs loss)

Ravens at Bengals: Bengals get 1 seed (win out + Chiefs loss), 2 seed (win out + no Chiefs loss), 3 seed (loss to Bills tomorrow + win vs Ravens next week + Chiefs loss vs Raiders next week), or 5 seed (loss to Bills tomorrow + loss to Ravens next week)

Patriots at Bills: Patriots get 7 seed (Patriots win vs Bills or Dolphins and Steelers loss)

Jets at Dolphins: Dolphins get 7 seed (Dolphins win vs Jets + Patriots loss)

Browns at Steelers: Steelers get 7 seed (Steelers win vs Browns + Patriots loss + Dolphins loss)

Vikings at Bears: Vikings get 2 seed (Vikings win vs Bears + 49ers loss) or 3 seed (Vikings loss or 49ers win)

Lions at Packers: Packers get 7 seed (Packers win vs Lions) or Lions get 7 seed (Lions win vs Packers + Seahawks loss)

Rams at Seahawks: Seahawks get 7 seed (Seahawks win vs Rams + Packers loss)

Cards at 49ers: 49ers get 1 seed (49ers win + Eagles loss), 2 seed (49ers win + Eagles win), 3 seed (49ers loss)

Giants at Eagles: Eagles get 1 seed (Eagles win or Eagles loss + 49ers loss + Cowboys loss), 2 seed (Eagles loss + 49ers win + Cowboys loss), or 5 seed (Eagles loss + 49ers win + Cowboys win)

Cowboys at Commanders: Cowboys get 1 seed (Cowboys win + 49ers loss + Eagles loss), 2 seed (Cowboys win + 49ers win + Eagles loss), or 5 seed (Cowboys loss or Cowboys win + Eagles win)

The only real change is that the Browns at Steelers game now has significance to the Steelers (if the Patriots and Dolphins lose and the Steelers can win).

Chances are the NFL will do what they do every year and have everyone with relevant games play at the same time, but I could be wrong!

On edit: Guess we're playing Saturday so..... nevermind.

Really like the extra day to prepare for playoffs, or bye week.

Not sure we will be resting anyone unless we get the bye.

I haven't done the math on this, but can somebody fact check me?

If the Bills win this game, the Chiefs are almost certainly locked into the 2 seed (as it's vey unlikely the Bills will lose to the Pats in Week 18), and they can rest their starters?

How in the world have so many people forgotten about Fitzmagic and the Dolphins beating the Pats to give the Chiefs the bye during our Super Bowl run?

Yes, the likelihood that the Patriots will beat the Bills is low. No, the Chiefs will not rest starters if there is any chance at the 1 seed (and there is no scenario in which that chance will not exist). The end.

And how in the world has the same thing been addressed and discussed 50x in different threads yet it’s still being asked?

So if we stay the 2 seed, we are getting the Dolph, Pats or Stealers.

Chiefs won’t rest starters for any reason because the Patriots have a chance to upset the Bills in Week 18

Patriots will be playing for the 7th seed and should use all starters available

Technically Ravens or Jags are possibilities as well. This site's algorithm is pretty simplistic, but I like it for getting a feel of the scenarios (scroll to the middle table). Based on that, the probabilities are:

50% - Bye
28% - Dolphins
9% - Steelers
6% - Ravens
5% - Patriots
2% - Jaguars

If we stay the 2 seed, the Jags would be the 4th as they would be division winners, Ravens worst is the 6th as they have 10 wins. I'm pretty sure its the Stealers, Minnows, Faketriots...

I think the Patriots just have to be higher given that if we lose to the Raiders after a Bills win tonight, the Bills have nothing at stake next week. I doubt they’ll sit their starters given that they’ll have a bye, but I can’t imagine they’ll be playing the playoff-hungry Patriots at anywhere near 100%.

The Jags can still end up as a 7 seed WC. We could end up playing the Ravens if we drop into the 3 seed (with a loss + 2 Bengals wins), but you did give "if we get the 2 seed" as a caveat.

Gonna be hard not to scoreboard watch, especially since they will be in LV and have no control over whether they show the scores or not.

Possibly. You're definitely right that these kinds of models can't really account for stuff like that or injuries to a key player.

The game’s on Saturday. No scoreboard to watch anyway.

Mac is no Fitzpatrick though. Regardless of tonight I expect the Bills to take the Pats to the woodshed. There is no love lost between those two teams and any chance they can humiliate Belechick they will, especially if it keeps the Pats out of the playoffs.