Why Doesn't The NFL HOF Have More Kickers?
 

Totally random, and way off topic, but was looking at Butker's stats, and he's been pretty elite for the most part during his career, and it got me looking at other kickers. Man, there are some really good kickers who are not in the HOF. Why?

Because old school dipshits won’t get past it. Kickers determine more games than nearly all players. The best deserve to get in over good players at other positions.

Because there is a bunch of sentiment that kickers aren't real football players.

Which is ironic because kickers and punters were highly prized in the game's earliest years.

Because Kickers suck..

It’s called football after all.

Let Nick Lowery in!

For me it takes one hell of a kicker to make it. It’s a critical position. But it’s really an individual position. You’re not finding ways to outsmart a guy lined up directly opposite you. Or figuring out how to beat a lightning fast guy one week, huge guy the next week.

Because they play soccer

Because they are untrustworthy.

Kareem Hunt ruined it for the rest of them.

Probably because voters emphasize other skill positions more and due to limited slots every year kickers typically get pushed to the side. Unless a kicker is generational his chances of getting in are slim at best.

I wish when football was invented, that the rules didn't involve the kicking game. In it's modern form, the kicking game is a source of injury, penalties, and randomness (muffed punts, missed chip field goals, returns for TD). It would be a better game with the best team winning more often without kicking and punting. If you like randomness in footballl, we could have more important plays decided by coin flips.

Kickers and punters are actually playing a different game than every other player. A successful kick requires everything to go perfectly: good snap, snap is placed perfectly, laces out, proper tilt, no gusts of wind, good footing and a thousand other things. It's closer to golf or bowling than it is to playing any other position on the football field.

Imagine if QBs required everything to go right. Called the wrong play for the defense? Fail. Pass rush? Fail. Bad snap? Fail. Receiver not open by five yards? Fail. Ball is wet? Fail. Wind is blowing? Fail. Footwork got messed up? Fail. Stuff going on in my head? Fail.

Receivers: pass isn't perfect? Fail. Defender gets his hands on me? Fail. Get hit when the ball arrives? Fail.

Defensive linemen: OL has good footwork? Fail. OL gets his hands on me? Fail. QB steps up in pocket? Fail.

Football is about every player locked in conflict with one or more other players and overcoming that conflict to make a great play. Kicking and punting are antithetical to that idea.

Kicking is an important part of the game, so they should get consideration. I think there's a big bias, though, because specialized kickers don't participate in what most of us believe to be the core elements of the game: blocking, tackling, running, hitting, and catching.

Hard to believe a kicker was MVP of the league in 1982. And this is a true story, Mosley had the record for most consecutive fields goals and when he finally missed, my brother caught the football in that game and brought it home.

That is a cool story and keepsake.

So you mean to tell me Devin Hester will get in almost immediately for only RETURNING kicks, a very small percentage of those kicks for actual touchdowns, but the actual kickers with game winning kicks constantly, won't.

I agree that it's odd, especially considering kickers decide about 1/4 of the points scored in a game on average and most of the top 30 players in points scored every year are... you guessed it... kickers.

Buttttttttttt....

The NFL is, at least currently, oversaturated with talent at the position. We're in a time where the margin between the top of the heap and the average is approximately 3% or 1 FG made per season. A bad kicker will still make 70% and the average is near 85%. It's really hard to distinguish the worthiness of the position, even as vital as it may be. There is just so little consistency when you look at quantifiable data to support an argument that one kicker is more deserving than another.

I think it takes a truly special kicker to even elicit conversation. Justin Tucker just might end up that guy, but I'm not sure if there are many you can make an argument for. Tucker is one of the few that have been consistently great for a long stretch without bouncing down around the mean.

Times have changed. Stenarud got in having made only about two thirds of his kicks. In the 1971 Christmas game it shouldn't have been that big a shock he missed three of four. He was only about 50 percent beyond 20 yards that year and 60 percent overall. 75 percent led the league back then. Interestingly his numbers went way up at the end of his long career. Maybe the artificial surfaces and domes helped?

Hash marks were further apart and the goal post was at the front of the end zone. You could get severe angles on short kicks.

They narrowed the hash marks and moved the goal post to the back of the end zone in the mid 70s (the latter part of Stenerud's career). FG success went up dramatically league-wide.

That's part of the story, but there weren't any indoor stadiums. No nice, clean Astroturf. The grass fields were often nothing more than dirt by the end of the season.

Obviously oversimplifying the position, but it’s really one of the more controlled position in sports. There’s not a lot of overthinking out there. Weather is different. Turfs are different. But there are only so many curveballs the other team will throw at the kicker. It’s being very consistent with mechanics and having balls of steel. Hard to place them on the same standard as skill positions that need lots of strategy. Also, a big part of the HOF is durability and I’d assume players who put their body through a decade+ of constant abuse would resent having their spot taken away from a kicker who keeps their jersey clean 9 times out of 10.

A lot of HOF voting considers not what life would be like with a bad kicker. But with an average or good kicker. It’s going to hurt to move from Justin tucker to your standard 85% kicker but it’s not nearly as devastating as losing kelce. A lot of good kickers will still be at that league average even in the clutch too. So the bar has gotten higher simply because all kickers have gotten way better.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/ex...icks-1985-2019

Here’s something interesting. Who are the best clutch kickers of the modern era? % wise it’s not who you’d expect and most of these guys aren’t HOFers.

Tucker probably makes it

I think so too... Megatron says Butker will be considered also. :eek:

Most kickers, as in 90% of them, have pretty short careers. I think I read somewhere they average about 2.7 years. So longevity is definitely a consideration.

Obviously, accuracy, consistency, stats in general are important.

And when you consider that Butker will probably be kicking in PT/playoff games for the remainder of his career so long as he's a Chief and Mahomes is the QB, however long that will be. Say it's 8 more years. Multiply out his current stats for the last 6 years (go ahead and include this year even though it's not complete, even pretend he doesn't make a kick in the playoffs for 2022, I don't care), by say 2.3 or whatever. That should be around 14 years. Check those numbers against those PKs already in the HOF. Then project his numbers in the playoffs (so far Butker's more consistent/clutch in the playoffs).

Just statistically, Butker could make it. Probably should make it.

But optics for PKs is just as important, and he's going to have a lot of opportunities as the Chiefs PK to show off on national TV. if he is only as consistent as he has been so far in those 'clutch' moments for the rest of his career, he'll have a strong argument for getting in.

And note that he doesn't have to play any better than he has over the last 6 years. he doesn't have to improve significantly in any part of his game. Just keep posting 89% accuracy for the next 8+ years and in the playoffs, and he'll be in the conversation.

In Jan's case at least don't think that's it. Here's his numbers, total FG percent to the right. Doesn't get better until 81 kicking for GNB of all places.

What do you fellas think of Vinateri's chances of being a first ballot hall of famer? No brainer or does it take a couple tries for him to get into the HOF?

Considering how dominant he was at his position he should be first ballot. Just think about how many championship games that guy won...

And again, since I keep getting misquoted,

I SAID THAT BUTKER COULD GET IN, NOT THAT HE WOULD GET IN.

There's a difference.

Wow, I had no idea that he passed Morten Andersen for the #1 all-time scoring spot. I was about to say that he'll make it in three or four years, but given his longevity and the clutch kicks that he made to support cheating by the patriots, I think he's got a good shot of getting in on the first ballot.

They don't want to clean shit off of more kickers busts. **** kickers.

Nothing misquoted...You said he "COULD" make it. You also said that he "PROBABLY SHOULD" make it.

There's a difference.:shrug:

I have a better question. Why isn't Otis Taylor in the HOF?

I agree, if Vinateri isn't a first ballot HOF'er then Canton somewhat sets the tone for kickers moving forward. There isn't a better career kicking wise in regards to longevity and clutch moments on the biggest stage.

probably should is still a significant distance from would or will. He's not a lock, and I never said he was.

What I said was that all he really had to do was keep kicking at his average for the last six years and play for at least 14-16 years total, so 8-10 more years, and he probably should be in the conversation.

He doesn't have to improve in any particular area at all, just keep kicking at his current average, and statistically he'll be right there at the fence.

His only real problem, assuming he stays healthy and doesn't otherwise fall off a cliff somehow, is Justin Tucker. He's likely going to be outshined by Tucker for most of his career, and that might hurt his chances.

His numbers aren't sexy enough for modern voters.

Unless he was kicking at Arrowhead.