3rd/4th and 1 Conversions
 

A lot was made in Sunday's AFC Championship game about the Chiefs inability to convert in 3rd & 1 and 4th & 1 scenarios. If I remember correctly Romo said the Chiefs are hovering around 50% in conversion percentage in these short yardage situations. The Chiefs are 2nd in the NFL at 48.7% in all 3rd down scenarios which makes it seem bizarre that Mahomes & company are not converting 3rd/4th and short with more regularity.

So I turn to the prolific armchair offensive coordinators of Chiefsplanet to answer these questions:

1. Why do you think the Chiefs struggle in these situations?
2. Any adjustments you would make vs Philly in the Superbowl?
3. Gun to your head, 4th & 1 in the Superbowl, what are you dialing up?

QB sneak. They don't believe the Chiefs will do it. It will work.

Pitch to Pacheco for an outside run. Pacheco's speed and anger against a lot less congestion.

A play that gets lost in the discussion since it happened early was the fourth down touchdown conversion. That was a pivotal play in the game.

The problem is Pacheco seldom seems to be on the field on 3rd and 1. Mckinnon typically gets the nod. I've been yelling for Pacheco more on short yardage.

Why don’t we just come out in our normal offense? So many options and it will spread the defense out… Never understood why offenses feel the need to pack all 22 in a little area..

I agree with this.

We don’t have to treat short yardage like short yardage.

Shit, just spread everyone out and trust Mahomes to pick it up with his legs and slide if nothing comes open.

You also have a better chance of drawing a flag that way.

personally i hate pitching it in this situation. imo too much potential to go backwards

we should just sneak it. qbs have done it for decades w no ill effects. on fluke accident shouldnt prevent us from running it ever again.

Both TD plays were on 4th down or 3rd down. The 4th down TD gained you 7 points compared to getting 0 points, while the 3rd down TD gained you 4 points compared to getting 3 points. Pretty huge to gain 11 points on those 2 plays. Flip side is they also lost 8 points on Toney's drop and the holding penalty to call back Pacheco's rushing TD.

They need to treat 3rd and 1 like 3rd and 8.

Yea the line them up and pound forward simply is not working lets just spread them out and force them to cover every single mother ****er on our team who can possibly get the ball in their hands which on any given play is a lot.

I sort of cringe when we get first and goal inside the 10 its like...hey man can you put it between the 10 and the 20 yard line for me I really like that zone.

Where is Priest Holmes when you need him?

inside the 40, throw one to the end zone... It's what Patrick 'MVP' Mahomes does...

3rd/4th down has been an issue all year on both sides of the ball.

Defense is 30th is RZ scoring %, 24th in 4D conv %. Will have to clean that up a bit with the Eagles.

QB sneak/End Thread

This is what Ive been saying for the last 6 weeks. We are amazing on third and long but for whatever reason can NOT get 1 yard. So just throw out those 3rd and 1 plays, call the 3rd and 8!

Been trying to understand why Joe, Creed and Trey can't just get a push on these plays.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WO8y3YJylXc
This is what you run

100% time to sneak it now, and use Saunders to shove Mahomes forward.

If it's 4th and goal from the one foot line, I want Mahomes in the middle of an entire mass of humans sacrificing his body, and SO DOES HE!

You mean Willie Roaf.

We could use a big back that does these goal line pushes and can block on passing downs.

Try to draw an offsides, take the delay of game, then run your 3rd & 6 offense.


Agreed with running your normal offense.

Stats mean nothing now. What were we Sunday? WE WON!

I said during the game, 3rd/4th down and 1, offense and defense is our kryptonite

They tried with ROJO. He came into the game before McKinnon did.

If we line up in a normal formation it open up gaps to run thru vs everyone bunched together

If we don't wanna use Mahomes to sneak, fine. Use Blake Bell. He's good at the sneak. He did it a lot at OU.

I've seen so many times when Mahomes could just walk into the end zone himself instead of passing the ball. You don't even need to do your traditional QB sneak, just a variation or most likely a option play where Mahomes keeps it and gets the first down himself. Just let Mahomes dial his favorite play up while running a normal offense depending on what he sees on the line of scrimmage. More likely than not he's going to want to pick up that first down himself, when healthy of course.

Also they need to stop telegraphing their hand and give your RBs more chances for success by mixing it up more on first down... It doesn't have to be a run almost every first down. Throw a screen or something different... I'd like to see more play action pass in these scenarios... and have your RB run it on second and/or third down. JMO

we’ve tried that and it never works

Depending on Mahomes ankle, I wonder if they Chiefs go to a speed option look vs the Eagles in 3rd/4th and short situations similar to what they did against the 49ers in the Super Bowl.

If I remember correctly the Chiefs ran speed option to Bosa's side on their first scoring drive on a 3rd/4th and short, with Mahomes optioning it to Damien Williams. Andy Reid typically likes to run at premier pass rushers early in games to give them something else to think about, maybe Reddick gets the same treatment.

Don't we still have a FB, Burton, on the roster? What other purpose does a FB serve but to block for the RB?

The Bell sneaks are just setting up Bell tossing it to Mahomes who throws it to a wide open Jody Fortson for the TD

I think we could bring back Marcus Allen now, and he'd do better than our current 3rd/4th and 1 offense.

It makes me wonder if the Chiefs could hire a Marty clone just to coach the 3rd/4th and 1 or less offense. Bring in Henne so the QB sneak is an actual threat. Actually use the fullback as a blocker and not as an alternate RB. And every now and then throw it to keep them honest.

Why not have both out there in a personnel package with 2 RB with Jet doing a chip block and the receiver option and Pacheco as the rusher option

Lots of good points in this thread and I brought up the QB sneak in DenverChiefs thread last week.

Mahomes injury sustained earlier in his career has pretty much kept Andy from running the play.

But, but harumph, nobody has mentioned the loss of the Shermanator! This team misses number 42 Anthony Sherman! Michael Burton, so far, just is not the same.

FORTSZN BABY

???

Its so freaking simple. Teams do not have to scheme defensively for a QB sneak. Makes you much much easier to defend. In fact, Andy ran a 3rd and 10 play on 4th in 1 on that Kelce TD last game...which was kind of genius if you are DUMB enoughto never QB sneak. But we MUST start QB sneaking again. This is the time to do it because they wont even see it coming.

No. You ****ing use Mahomes. When you put in Bell and then he shuffles into behind the center you have already lost any element of surprise and any ability to pass the ball.

Its so ****ing simple to solve. You QB sneak eith Mahomes...which is the safest play in football.

Yes, lets qb sneak our one ankled qb....

Up until this ankle deal, I totally agree. It's silly to never run a sneak ever again just because of a freak accident(knee). But with his ankle ...idk

If its a 20 vs 20 game in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl

You ****in do it

The Eagles will use the QB sneak on every short play. They know it works, they use it religiously.

The Chiefs are 2nd in the league on 3rd and 2 or longer and 27th in the league at 3rd and 1 or less.

Surprised they aren't dead last

This is why we need to start taking delay of game penalties on third and one.

I feel like this is what we do and it goes for a loss of 3 every time.

There's virtually ZERO question what the Eagles are going to do as well. And, yet, they convert at an absurd level. Bell should be that guy for us. If folks are really worried, he CAN throw the ball.

We ran this play on the 4th and short in the SB and the play design was never on tape. It was a 10+ yard gain.

I believe Andy has a play like this in the backlog for January

I think that was Vince Lombardi's philosophy with the power sweep. There was no element of surprise at all, but he ran it because it couldn't be stopped.

For those of you too young to remember, Vince Lombardi and Bart Starr were a coach/quarterback combination that won almost as often as Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes II.

Running the offense out of shotgun/RPO 95% of the time doesn't help matters.

IMO this is the main issue, esp when you supposedly have the NFL's best interior OL or at worst a top2-3 unit there.

When the offense lines up behind center in these situations, everyone and their mom knows whats coming. Thats part in reason why the Chiefs have to get cute when calling these plays.

It's really frustrating.

Our interior is good, but I don't know that we run-block very well 1-5, including the interior OL, when it's simply trying to get a forward push. THAT'S where you need the giants like OBJ.

I'd like to think we could fall forward for a yard, but that's simply not the case with our OL.

If only we could get Blake Bell to master the tush push.

If you can't get one stinking yard consistently by running down the middle, the O-Line isn't very good.

You shouldn't run your traditional offense from 3rd and 1 or 4th and 2. Just run everything from under center.

And that could be true. I think we have the guys to be a good PB OL (clean up the protections a bit, particularly vs stunts), but I'm not sure that's true with run blocking. It's a weakness that most on here were FINE with if it meant they could pass-block at a high level. Well, now that appears to be a reality, with the caveat that our pass-blocking hasn't been outstanding either.

Exactly. 3rd and 1 doesn't need to be outsmarting anyone, really. If we can't man-on-man move the pile a yard, we can still trap and down-block.

I KNOW Nagy et al. have considered ALL of this. I'm not sure why we haven't seen Bell under center either sneaking or giving to Pop.

Bell should stop practicing in order to exclusively do powerlift squats

I'd really like one of these stat nerds to quantify how much win % we give up each game by turning 3rd/4th and 1 into 50% success rate, while the rest of the league is at 80-90%.

Andy doesn't field a FB any longer so we need to go to the "Belldozer" every now and then.:thumb:

Nobody SHOULD field a FB; hell, Khalen Saunders has been playing the role as a DT.

It’s possible Andy is calling certain plays in certain situations to set up defenses in the postseason to go against an established trend/tendency.

Isiah Pacheco is 5 for 7 in 3rd/4th and 2 or less. He's only attempted that scenario in 4 games. McKinnon is 3/4.

I think the offensive scheme by default hurts the run game.

95% of the offense is ran from a shotgun/RPO scheme.

Andy Reid is NOTORIOUS for abandoning the run game. Sorry folks he's never going to change. Hard for any RB to get into any good kind of rhythm. Even when Andy's backs are avg well over 4-5yds/carry he just ignores the run game for entire quarters even. Insane.

When it's time to get a few yards and line up behind center, everyone and their mom knows whats coming, imo thats why they have to get cute and run these maddening infuriating east west plays.

Gary Pinkel did the same thing at MU.

It's a college scheme.

Chiefs supposedly have the NFL's best interior OL, or top 3 at worse. Why they have these troubles just makes me wanna pull my hair out.

For those who say "They're in 1st and 7-2 at the bye and you're bitching?"

Well....You gotta be able to run the ball and play defense in Jan. Thank god the defense is doing more than enough on their part.

Chiefs are second highest in the league with a 63.3% conversion rate when rushing on 3rd and short (3yards or less in that analysis). This is arguably the best interior o-line on the NFL. Pacheco is not afraid of contact and smart/agile enough to pop out of the pile if it is too clogged up. There is no need for rugby scrum or anything fancy. If Reid/Nagy really want to pass on 3rd and short, it should at least be off play action.

This.

I’ve always thought this. Great point.

C'mon guys. Andy isn't tanking 3rd and 1s just so he can unleash a run play in the post season LMAO.

Well.... he's also won two SBs and been to several more championship games and is the 4th winningest coach in NFL history.

Notorious and insane doesn't really fit when it works. I'd prefer he doesn't listen to critics and take football back 30 years with dumbass concepts like "establish the run" and "run the ball and play defense".

Chiefs fans always seem to want their Martyball pacifier when something goes wrong.

We are going to do what we do and we will live and die with Andy's offense.

One would think that with what Andy and his offense have achieved here people would be fine with that.

The passey is safey.

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I just want “hope and noise” in the playoffs. Reminds me of the good ol days.

Saying we should do something that has a 75+% percent of working instead of what we've been doing which has us ranked as one of the worst teams in the league in that aspect is Marty ball? Ok....

we're gonna be fine

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-a_Kq-b...name=4096x4096

I'll laugh my ass off if we finally do the QB sneak on a 3rd and short in the Super Bowl.

I think in that case he would or Patrick would do it himself even if it's not called. At that point,you have to just throw all caution to the wind and do what you have to do.

Is that better than last year?

Remember him taking that huge hit in the SB against the 49ers? That scared the shit out of me, but he ****ing killed Jimmy Ward instead lol. It looks like he's gonna try to slide, but starts too late.

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