Offseason Mock 3/1/23
 

Discount Kiper is honing in, folks, and he's kind of bored. I foresee Veach working to "complete" the defense by strengthing the defensive line for the long haul then filling in the offense with some developmental prospects late and veterans in key roles.
If you're salivating over going all in on WRs you might want to prepare for your butt to pucker because I don't have it happening here. A modest free agent, a late stab, and development internally are at play here.
If you're wanting for an overhaul of the offensive line, this probably isn't your favorite either. A couple of veteran additions and a singular stab on day 3 are on the docket.
And on we go... (swiftly combs fingers through his long locks)...

Restructures
QB Patrick Mahomes: Restructure of $34.40m roster bonus to signing bonus (-27.52m)
ER Frank Clark: Reduction of 2023 salary from $20.5m to $4.75m fully guaranteed, $1.275m in per-game bonuses, and remaining bonuses for a total cap charge of $16.0m ($7.675m of prorated bonus), and a savings of $12.675m

Extensions
DT Chris Jones: 4-yr/$116.5m extension, $31.5m signing bonus, $69.0m guaranteed at signing, $16.0m 2023 salary to bonus. Cap hits of 21.8, 28.0, 29.0, 32.0, and 34.0. Total contract AAV becomes $28.9m. (-6.50m)
CB L'Jarius Sneed: 3-yr/$42.0m extension, $12.0m signing bonus, $19.5m in total guarantees. Cap hits of 4.17, 11.0, 13.0, 15.0. (+3.0m)

Free Agent Re-signings
LT Orlando Brown, Jr.: 6-yr/$139.5m, $31.25m signing bonus, $65.25m guaranteed at signing (cap hits of 15.5, 18.5, 24.0, 27.0, 26.0, 28.5).
P Tommy Townsend: 4-yr/$12.0m, $2.0m signing bonus, $3.5m guaranteed at signing. (cap hits of 2.0, 2.5, 3.5, 4.0)
WR Justin Watson: 1-yr/$1.22m, $152.5k signing bonus, Veteran Salary Benefit deal (cap hit 1.02m)
RB Jerick McKinnon: 1-yr/$2.25m deal, $835k signing bonus
DT Khalen Saunders: 1-yr/$2.58m, $152.5k signing bonus, Four-Year Qualifying Player deal (cap hit 1.23m)
DB Deon Bush: 1-yr/$1.32m, $152.5k signing bonus, VSB deal (cap hit 1.02m)
FB Michael Burton: 1-yr/$1.32m, $152.5k signing bonus, VSB deal (cap hit 1.02m)
TE Jody Fortson: ERFA tag 1-yr/$870k
QB Shane Buechele: ERFA tag 1-yr/$870k

Free Agent Additions
RT Trey Pipkins (LAC age 26 6'6" 309) 2-yr/$8.5m, $3.0m signing bonus, $4.25m guaranteed at signing (cap hits 3.0, 5.5)
A RT that showed he was turning the corner as a really solid player before an injury ended his 2022 campaign. Looks like an upgrade to Wylie as a pass blocker on the right side and should come relatively cheap.
DT Armon Watts (CHI age 26, 6'5" 298) 2-yr/$5.5m, $1.0m signing bonus, $2.25m guaranteed at signing (cap hits 2.0, 3.5)
Has shown in the past he can be a disruptive presence in the right situation but got bumped out of a good room in Minnesota before being claimed by, gulp, Chicago. He could be a rotational 3-tech here.
WR Parris Campbell (IND age 26, 6'1" 208) 1-yr/$2.7m, $1.0m signing bonus, $2.08m guaranteed at signing, $5.5m UTBE incentives
Parris was reliable last year, finally, in role that saw him operate primarily from the slot. He's similar to JuJu but a bit faster and could come on a similar contract to look for a bigger payday.
QB Blaine Gabbert (TB age 33, 6'4" 235) 2-yr/$5.0m, $1.5m signing bonus, $2.50m guaranteed at signing (cap hits 2.25, 2.75)
Gabbert might be tempted to come home and would be a solid veteran presence in the QB room for analysis.
OT Josh Wells (TB age 32, 6'6" 306) 1-yr/$1.32m, $152.5k signing bonus, VSB deal (cap hit 1.02m)
Wells has been a solid reserve for some time and has played admirably when asked to start. There's not a lot of cap room to go around in Tampa Bay and they will likely be on to a youth movement.

Chiefs Let Walk
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, FS Juan Thornhill, OT Andrew Wylie, DE Carlos Dunlap, DT Brandon Williams, DT Derrick Nnadi, DT Tershawn Wharton, OT Prince Tega Wanogho, WR Mecole Hardman, TE Blake Bell, RB Ronald Jones II, LB Darius Harris, QB Chad Henne (Retired), OG Nick Allegretti

Draft
1-31. ER Derick Hall, Auburn (6'3" 252)
A speed rusher with a power game to boot. He's relentless, tough, physical, and of high character.
2-48. DT Keeanu Benton, Wisconsin (6'3" 317)
Chiefs trade with Detroit, sending 2-63 and 3-95 for 2-48.
Collapses the pocket with some ability to get to the QB and dominant anchor strength at the point of attack.
4-122. CB Rejzohn Wright, Oregon State (6'2" 199)
Physical corner with good foot speed to keep with receivers and a solid tackler in the screen game.
4-134. OT Braeden Daniels, Utah (6'4" 297)
Athletic tackle-to-guard conversion project with good athleticism and a similar pre-draft profile to Joe Thuney. Cheers Sac.
5-168. ER Tavius Robinson, Ole Miss (6'6" 265)
Long, fundamentally sound, and smart defensive end with good linear close to the QB
6-197. RB Evan Hull, Northwestern (5'11" 210)
Patient runner with excellent vision and the speed to hit the hole. Looked like Christian McCaffrey-light with his receiving volume.
6-217. LB Shaka Heyward, Duke (6'3" 239)
Rangy and instinctive LB with the speed to cover ground sideline-to-sideline that needs to work on strength and man coverage.
6-219. S Quindell Johnson, Memphis (5'11" 198)
High-energy coverage safety with ball skills to shore up depth.
7-227. DT Brodric Martin, Western Kentucky (6'4" 337)
Rotational upside as an immovable object against the run but offers zero pass rush ability.
7-251. WR Keylon Stokes, Tulsa (5'10" 198)
Solid speed and quickness paired with outstanding route running and balance who offers upside as an off-line move receiver and kick returner.
7-257. TE Blake Whiteheart, Wake Forest (6'4" 240)
Solid receiving TE with speed that lacks NFL weight in year one but could prove a usable weapon as he adds bulk.

TC Roster
QB: P. Mahomes II, B. Gabbert, S. Buechele
RB: I. Pacheco, J. McKinnon, C. Edwards-Helaire, E. Hull
FB: M. Burton
TE: T. Kelce, N. Gray, J. Fortson, B. Whiteheart
WR: M. Valdes-Scantling, P. Campbell, K. Toney, S. Moore, J. Watson, K. Stokes, Ju. Ross, Jo. Ross
OT: O. Brown Jr., T. Pipkins, L. Niang, J. Wells
IL: J. Thuney, C. Humphrey, T. Smith, B. Daniels, D. Kinnard

ED: G. Karlaftis, D. Hall, F.Clark, M. Danna, T. Robinson, M. Herring, J. Kaindoh
DT: D. Jones, K. Benton, A. Watts, K. Saunders, B. Martin
LB: N. Bolton, W. Gay, L. Chenal, S. Hewyard, J. Cochrane
CB: T. McDuffie, J. Williams, L. Sneed, R. Wright, J. Watson
DB: J. Reid, B. Cook, N. Johnson, D. Bush, Q. Johnson

ST: H. Butker, T. Townsend, J. Winchester

Love me some Rejzohn Wright.

Really like the draft.

If you could send a pick for DHop I'd love it all.

Good work! My favorite mocks results in an updated DL!

I like everything but Gabbert. Knock on him was always that he was lacking between the ears, so i don't see him as a good fit for a Henne replacement, who was the opposite.

I really like Hall and Benton.

I'd like to see a developmental OT earlier if we go DE and DT early.

And a WR.

In fact, that's my preferred rounds 1-4.

But this is solid and realistic.

Gabbert is actually really intelligent. I think he scored in the high 30s on the Wonderlic. His issue is processing speed on the field. He's just not super instinctive.

I think he could actually be a really effective backup and would do well in a pinch in the Andy Reid system.

Pretty darn good with the exception of leaving the WR cupboard a little bare…

I think we need to get used to being a little unsure of the WR corps.

It's a position that we really need to grow our own.

If it was me, I'd be drafting a WR in the first three rounds pretty much every year until the position is stocked.

I felt the same way about the CB room-and for the same reason, which is that it's a very expensive position to have to fill in free agency. Big tip of the cap to Veach for solidifying that room all in one draft.

We're going to need Moore and Toney to step up, it's just that simple.

This is a great offseason everywhere but skill positions.

We are absolutely asking Kelce to be all world again, and we haven't elevated the options around him. If anything, the options around him have taken a step back.

I suppose this is an offseason that is betting on the development of Pacheco, Gray, Toney, and Moore. And betting that Kelce doesn't fall off.

I'm not crazy about the notion, but man I did like what you did at DL.

I keep seeing things like this, and I just have to ask:

What exactly does Noah Gray need to do to convince anyone that he's a good player?

More targets? HE PLAYS ON A TEAM WITH TRAVIS KELCE. More targets probably ain't comin' unless we start load managing Kelce, and honestly, we probably should.

Gray's developed into a fine TE2 and would be TE1 on a lot of teams, in my opinion.

It kind of makes me wonder what the hell people are thinking.

Yeah, on WR, I'm thinking you do start banking on young guys stepping up. Moore and Toney are guys that need to absorb roles of significance next year. Parris Campbell had 60/600 last year in a much lower volume offense so he could replace JuJu's production. I'm also very much thinking Justyn Ross gets a serious shot to make this team or the Chiefs would have released him with an injury designation instead of stashing him on IR.

The cupboard would not be bare, it's just not the flashy "DHop trade" or the like people are clamoring for. I really don't think a move like that is necessary, to be honest.

Looking at the numbers going forward, I don't think it's POSSIBLE, really. You do a Dhop deal, you have to start gutting your team very soon.

If you want to pay a Sneed, a Bolton, a Jones, you can't go sign a Dhop.

You probably shouldn't pay Brown honestly, it's not good value per production.

He's a LT man. I get that some don't care for the player, but they're gonna pay a capable LT over a CB or a MLB. It's just basic positional importance.

I like the work done at DT even if I might prefer others in FA. I don't think I see Hall as a 1st RD guy but him and Benton 1-2 would be very solid, and Brodric Martin would be fantastic in the 7th. So I could see us improve significantly in the trenches and a little at DE.

I'd PROBABLY prefer to aim for a DE in FA, notwithstanding it's not a great year for them. That said there's a lot of sense in fixing RT, even short-term via FA. Feels like it gives us more scope in the draft and takes a big pressure off. As much as I think DL is the unit in most dire need, RT is the single worst positional need. If you can fix it in FA, you probably should. However....i don't like Pipkins much. I'd probably take a look at Beachum on a short-deal or someone like Jermaine Eluemenor, who looked like he turned a corner with the Raiders and I doubt costs a lot. He's always been at least OK in pass-pro. I do like the Wells pick up.

WR feels like a gamble and I'd prefer to make a pick there where you're taking Wright.

But he's a middle talent LT demanding top of the market money.

We can live with middle talent at LT, we just can't afford to pay disproportionately.

I just don't agree with the middling talent. He's a top 10 LT in the league guys. He's not the best for sure, but he's also the one hitting contract time right now. He may end up being a top 3 or so paid guy. That will last til the next guy gets paid.

He's 26 and has played well for the Chiefs at LT. I really doubt they're gonna move off him unless his demands are just wildly unreasonable.

Perhaps my “leave the cupboards bare” was a little dramatic admittedly. However, the point still stands I think. Are we willing to hand the leadership role in the WR room to Paris Campbell who’s production in his 4 years in the league were sub par? Same question for Toney, MVS or Moore.

To be clear, I agree that DHop would not be a good move nor do I think the team can afford it. Heck, doubtful we can afford to re-sign JuJu.

Question is who will Andy have confidence in to designate as the #1?

I don’t have an answer, but that roster of WR’s makes me un-easy.

Andy doesn't designate anyone as #1. That's some fantasy football bullshit.

There are X, Y, and Z receivers, and honestly, Kelce might be any one of them on an individual play. Not to mention all of the 12 and 13 personnel we have started using.

Andy doesn't give a rat's ass about any receiver getting 150 targets. That's for Madden goobers and fantasy football guys. Mahomes himself apologized to those guys before the season started.

This offense no longer runs through a '#1 WR'. It doesn't care about that. It's about diverse skillsets, and spreading the ball around. And guess what? It was MORE explosive than the last season with Hill, MORE efficient, ranked higher in yards, and points scored.

This desperate need for a NUMBER ONE RECEIVER is dumb.

Draft and develop. Protect Mahomes. Rush the opposing QB. These are the priorities to compete for and win more Super Bowls.

Not knocking your mock at all but question here...

What does Veach do if the following players are in our trade up range? Or perhaps fall to us? Just curious.

Myles Murphy DE

Bijan Robinson RB

Jordan Addison WR

Zay Flowers WR

Quentin Johnston WR

Dalton Kincaid TE

Jalin Hyatt WR

“Designate” or “have confidence” or call it whatever you want…
They have got to replace that production of JuJu if he leaves.

Who can step up?
Toney has not demonstrated he can stay healthy
Moore is developing
MVS…maybe
Draft pick…not this season most likely

Juju is a dependable chains mover, and mostly that's it. A big body, physical, good hands. Mostly, he played 'big slot'. Which is fine, but not that hard to fill, not something you have to pay $15-$20m for. And we don't have to fill that spot with the same profile player, even. There's no reason a more 'traditional' slot type body can't be just as effective, if not more so. So if Juju leaves for a higher salary, it's not a reason to freak out. He might find that his particular skillset isn't all that highly valued, and I think that's probably right. He's not a gamebreaker.

I know a lot of people are down on MVS, but his skillset is actually tougher to replace, and even if he doesn't get the ball on any individual play, his speed makes opportunities for others. And we saw that he can produce when you need him to in the AFCCG.

And Justin Watson had that stretch of dropsies, but is a no brainer to bring back, he'll be cheap, and is a MVS/Juju hybrid.

The team knows where Moore and Toney are at. What we do between now and May will tell us.



That's not worth a bunch of money. That's not a skillset that's difficult to find.

Moving the chains = production. Moving the chains yields more touchdowns vs kicks (punts and field goals). Can others step up? Sure, but who else was nervous when JuJu was questionable for the Super Bowl {raises hand}? Personally, I don’t think he is that easy to replace.

However, I think we agree that we may not be able to afford him. We got lucky last year with his affordability and health. Can we get lightning to strike twice. I’m hopeful we can when we have the best GM, head coach and QB in the world.

Yeah, well, you guys were all sure as hell we were totally ****ed last May, and how did that turn out?

JuJu was a big-bodied slot. Parris Campbell is a big-bodied slot with more speed. I'm not sure I see a drop-off if this were the scenario.

Plus you have growth from Toney and Moore.

I'm not sleeping on Justyn Ross. I know he doesn't get much thought here, but the kid has enormous potential if he's healthy and I think the Chiefs feel that way or they wouldn't have kept him on IR all year. The dude started over two really good pro receivers as a Freshman, not by mistake. He's talented. If his foot is healed, he'll be a factor, Pat loved him during early offseason stuff last year.

Grabbing a guy on day 3, like Keylon Stokes (who is a big sleeper IMO), is fine.

I think there is a fascination with a dominant WR amongst Chiefs' fans that never goes away because of the decades of having QBs that needed one. Sure, having a better WR would make the offense even more dangerous but it's very much a luxury and nowhere near a necessity.

Necessities are fixing the defensive line and the OT situation. They need a DE opposite Karlaftis for the long haul. They have one DT under contract right now and it's only for 2023. Sure, that'll change some in FA but they still need long-term fixes. The RT situation is absolutely problematic. Wylie is a bandaid player. Hell, we don't even know the long-term prognosis for OBj. All of those things take priority over WR in my mind. IF you can fix some of them in FA for at least a couple of seasons then yeah, look at a WR early.

Ok, so my question is this. What is OUR number 1 need and how far are you willing to move up to fulfill said need? I'm really just curious here. Thoughts?