Pete Prisco's take on the Chiefs Offense
 

Saw this on Reddit:

“This is just like last year where everyone is talking about concerns with Mahomes & the offense well I can tell you exactly what’s going on. They have a fantastic elite defense that does not get the national love or headlines they deserve. That young defense their GM built by trading Tyreek Hill to Miami, since last regular season is allowing Mahomes & Reid to be conservative with their pass play calls, run the ball more in September, October & November & slowly build up their pass game with rookie WR’s & cheap veterans who are not highly valued around the league but fit the Reid system well. You gotta understand Mahomes is 29 in his 7th season & Kelce is 35 but if you factor in their deep playoff runs over the last six years they have played an entire extra season & every game they play their opponent treats them like it’s their Super Bowl & it’s hard for them to get up week after week and match that intensity.

So their elite young defense & run game is allowing Mahomes & the pass game to take the LeBron approach. LeBron got to a point especially in his second stint in Cleveland where in the regular season he not play defense and settled for 3 point shots but when the playoffs arrived you saw LeBron at his peak form playing elite defense & attacking the rim relentlessly. Because of their defense, Mahomes & Reid in September, October & November are comfortable handing the ball off and being conservative in the pass game. Mahomes is not being aggressive throwing the football downfield right now or using his legs to make many throws on the move right now because it’s by design!!

He no longer prioritizes September, October, November and no longer cares about winning MVP’s or regular season awards, he prioritizes his body & peak play for when it matters most in late December & playoffs in January thanks to an elite defense. They’re (5-0) and Mahomes has been pretty dormant thus far and I’m telling you Kansas City feels great about themselves because it’s by design.” - Pete Prisco

That's a beautiful and correct take.

the chiefs play 20 preseason games a year, and 3 or four regular season games :thumb:

From an unlikely source too, because Prisco usually scoffs at any Chiefs success.

There is alot of truth to that, but there are some struggles that go far beyond "not trying"

True take.

I would've liked to see this offense atleast 1 game with everyone healthy. Pretty sure it would've been explosive like we all wanted to see.

Seriously. Dude used to hate pick against us pretty much every week. I guess he finally got tired of looking foolish.

But it is nice to hear one of the more prominent talkingsportsheads acknowledge what we've all known for years - a regular season game against us is pretty much ALWAYS viewed as the opposing team's Super Bowl. We almost always get their best game, no matter what. Granted, I don't watch these shows and mainly only see snippets of the shit they say in YT clips, but I don't recall anybody else saying that.

Man with Rice, Brown, Worthy, Kelce would have been sweet

Never thought we would break Prisco .

It’s glorious!!!

Spags is our WR1

Prisco has been on team Chiefs all year. He finally has seen the light.

This is very surprising coming from him.

WR is a concern for now, but we have the best game planners in the business. SF is also beat up and has lost 3 games. This team wins with brains.

I think it’s somewhat right. They’re being more conservative on offense and running the ball more because that’s what there.

I also think they tried to amp up the weapons so they wouldn’t have to be as conservative and injuries have just derailed it. Marquise Brown was going to be a big, big part of that and suffered a very random injury that has knocked him out. Rice going down just exacerbates the issue.

So they’re relying on the D and run game more as a result.

I’d still like to see if they could plug Diontae Johnson into the offense, as he would give the Chiefs what Brown offered, but the Panthers have to pick up the phone, too.

Nice to see a level-headed take.

This offense can improve by not turning the ball over and not running dumb plays in the red zone.

If you're going to win with defense, limiting your offensive mistakes and missed opportunities is key. This team leaves too many points on the board which cause games to be closer than necessary. It would also be nice if Jawaan Taylor stopped killing drives with his penalties.

Can we still hate Pete?

I heard a stat yesterday. Mahomes has the lowest yards per attempt in the league this year at just over 5 yards per attempt. The Chiefs also have the lowest number of explosive plays in the league. I didn't realize that it was that bad. How can that be and they be 5-0?

We have the lowest number of explosive runs in the league at 6...2 of them are QB scrambles and 1 is the Worthy opening night play.

The OP article explained this phenomenon... We are relying on our defense and avoiding wear, tear and emptying the playbook until late in the season and playoffs.

Yeah, I don't know if it's "not trying" but they're not foot on gas for sure. Some of the stuff is just Pat not taking chances.

The injuries just killed it.

Winning is a great deodorant. The offense needs to be better.

yes

That’s talking about average depth of target. His y/a is 7.7 right now, which is much higher than last year (7.0).

A big difference is he’s only throwing 32 times a game right now, vs a career average of about 38 attempts per game. That’s 30 yards a game difference.

This is an elite take. The real truth that a lot of people don’t want to acknowledge because they know scary it is given the Chiefs are 5-0.

Mahomes himself said in a pre-season interview that he tries not to run as much anymore until it’s do or die, or playoff games.

Andy has also been afforded the ability to be extremely patient and hold stuff back for the past five or so years. It’s not the prettiest formula for regular season games but it clearly leads to championships.

It's hard to evaluate as a fan, especially here on CP.

Because I think a lot of us (not me necessarily) are skeptical that the Chiefs, or any football team for that matter, can "flip the switch" and play amazing ball in the playoffs if you've looked mediocre to average all season up to that point. Fans and analysts want empirical evidence that you've been playing well to say you're the team to look out for. If you hold back all season, you're just a big floating question mark, no one knows if it's holding back or just actually being a bad team.

All of our football knowledge tells us that last year was a fluke and we can't just be bad all year and suddenly be good when it matters... but maybe you can? Who knows.

That could also be interpreted as a stat in our favor. We haven't needed to go downfield to win, yet.

We're saving our big plays for the playoffs!

The AFCW being anemic might play into their conservative regular season game-planning.

It's a battle of attrition...

I just don't buy the "he's saving this or that"

There's only 17 games in a season. It's a full sprint.

Verderame said this on his Patreon this morning. Nick Jacobs and Matt Derrick have said this. Nate Taylor has said this. Grunny has said it too.

The Chiefs season is basically 3-4 games a year in January with 2-3 games in season to get the 1 seed for those games.

The Chiefs have shown next to nothing new on offense. Basically the Leo Chenal red zone plays. Basically Ravens, Bengals, Bills and Texans. SF is a game they’ll play hard in but it ultimately means nothing in terms of AFC seeding.

This team is playing like it’s preseason. They’re working on shit on offense. This is what the Patriots did for so many years.

It's not really about "showing new stuff" though. It's more execution and basic play to play stuff that they're just not doing as well.

People scoff at it, but he's said it himself, the QB just isn't playing well right now. If it's the injuries, sure that makes sense. But if he just needs the weapons....do it. Let some defense walk, inflate the offense at the skill positions, the OL whatever.

Get him back playing at his best.

That's the real secret. They're running the ball more. Each of the last two seasons they've run the ball 417 times and right now they're on pace to run the ball over 500 times. Obviously some of those runs are QB scrambles but I went back and looked and they've never come close to that 500 carries number with Mahomes even with his scrambling.

Given the WR issues and that defenses play the Chiefs so conservatively they may be trying to lean on the defense and beat teams out of playing deep safeties so much.

First of all he was great last game. Secondly, they absolutely keep their game plans simple and work on stuff during the season. Add in the fact that they can't possibly match their opponents intensity every week and it's easy to see why they don't look as impressive. They'll just keep disappointing you en route to the 1 seed (probably) and another electric playoff run (definitely).

I do agree with that part.

You can't be at your peak intensity every week, especially when they play into the postseason like they have.

If Pat plays like he did last weekend, we're golden.

Translation: mahomes is a game manager right now. We make it work because Reid and mahomes are exceptional talents. It was not our intention to be this way given that we fortified our offense with 2 guys who are exceptional at stretching the offense. Injuries happened before we could fully make this work.

So reid and mahomes adapt. They will continue to make this season work well despite our circumstances. But ultimately our goal is to let mahomes be mahomes and we know that an offense that wants to take it out of his hands or revolve an offense around one of the lowest ADOTs in the league is limiting our most explosive piece

Yep. It's a cope. You don't magically start trying or start installing new plays in the playoffs. There are tweaks here and there but no, if they could score 30 points a game right now, they would.

"cope" LMAO We're undefeated. I mean WTF?

And they flipped a switch in the playoffs LAST YEAR. IDGAF if they score 30 points a game. They don't need to because the defense is awesome and Mahomes will beat anyone when it matters. Sorry the games aren't more exciting.

Many of us understand that Reid holds back for the playoffs.

I agree that they will. But do you think Mahomes is just not trying anymore? Like he could play how he did 2018-2022 but just doesn't feel like it? He got tired of having fun and playing loose and scoring a bunch of points a game? He's throwing a pick a game and has the lowest yards per target in the league because he's doing it on purpose to save plays/points for the playoffs?

The offense has been bad because of injuries and because the players we usually count on haven't been performing to the standards we expect of them. Any other reason is a cope.

Coping with what?! Winning 11 straight games including the Superbowl?? The offense was rebuilt in the offseason and then had the rug pulled out by injuries and uneven LT play. Mahomes had a couple down games trying to compensate and then looked awesome last game. Our running game looks better than ever and Patrick is figuring it out with his patchwork WR room. What in the holy **** do any of us have to cope with?

Not sure I believe that. They can't empty the playbook because they have too many good players injured on offense. Not because they're deliberately hotdogging the offense.

Yup. Anyone who watched the playoffs, especially the SB, should know this

Mahomes is definitely trying to get himself back into playing form, hes too much of a competitor. Theres no way he doesn't care hes having his worst season as a starter statistucally. He himself said he wanted to bring back the offense of years past. Then the injuries happened and he honestly wasn't very sharp even before the injuries.

I think Prisco's point is "the Chiefs have gotten to a point as an organization that they can be playing C ball offensively through the regular season and id still be terrified of them in the playoffs because of their proven track record of success" and honestly hes not wrong.

Because as much as Mahomes wants to be throwing for 50 TDs every season, he wants to win Super Bowls more.

Yes, but much of the offensive struggles come from turnovers and untimely penalties. Obviously Andy isn't encouraging those mistakes.

They turned it up offensively in the playoffs but you have to remember that Miami and Buffalo were both beat up defensively and put up little resistance. The offense still struggled in the red zone against Miami, not by design. They played well against Baltimore in the first half but got shutout in the 2nd half. The Super Bowl was the other way around. Bad first half but got it going in the 2nd half. Even in the SB though, they had two turnovers that could have cost them the game.

So yeah, Reid holds back some plays offensively but the mistakes are not deliberate and the injuries have accounted for much of the conservative offense this season. Cut their turnovers in half and this offense would be looking much better this year. Same with the red zone inefficiency. A few more TDs instead of FGs and the offense looks much better overall.

It's really not a cope at all. Our eyes can see it and the boots-on-ground reporters back it up.

Andy would blow his load during his first 20 years all within the first couple months and then defenses would seem to figure the O out. It just looks different to me in recent years. I'm sure some of that is just getting the other team's full focus of every week, but whatever it is, it leads to their best performances when it's needed most.

Wut? When did this happen?

So next season when they're hopefully fully healthy and come out of the game scoring 30 again, are you guys going to change your narrative again? You can just say the offense hasn't played well but will likely get better as the season goes along and if we had another piece or two. Pretending like they're purposefully tanking offensive production is silly.

10-20 years from now, analysts, reporters, and players are going to be lauding Andy on podcasts and other bits of media for dragging these teams to wins and Super Bowls when we were outmatched talent-wise multiple times.

So wait, it is injuries and trying to figure it out or are they holding things back and they don't need to play well cause the defense is awesome? Can't have it both ways.

Yeah, if we had a healthy Rice, Brown, Worthy, Pacheco, I'd be curious to know how Andy would hide the offense? Run WR screens and 3 TE sets all season? I imagine they'd be airing it out now if not for the current personnel.

If you wanna say they're pulling the reigns a bit because of injuries, sure, I'd buy that.

But the other stuff? Nah. They're not playing how they want on offense.

Yes you can.

Pretty obvious that a lot of the playbook was cut out with the losses of Rice and Hollywood. Losing Pacheco and relying on Steele for a few weeks didn’t help. They also had a massive problem at LT with Kingsley which has slowly gotten better.

But it’s still painfully obvious that Andy is running old plays. In the playoffs they have new wrinkles added that they don’t show in the regular season.

Sure, but they simply aren't executing simple things either. Remember how many straight non scoring drives we had between the end of the AFCC and beginning of the Superbowl? Was that "holding back" too?

We are very fortunate for this defense

I don’t think they are holding back like the LeBron analogy. They had plans to have a great offence to complement an elite defense, but injuries stood in the way. So they are basically taking what they are given, they are also playing poorly in a relative sense with the excessive number of giveaways, penalties, and in some of the games, bad decisions by Mahomes. Given their injury situation at WR and the talent they have at RB (amazing how hunt came in when Pacheco went down) and the fact they have an elite defense, they have definitely turned to more of a running game.

But this is all about doing what makes the most sense in the situation that they are currently in , in my view, and not about purposefully holding back. True. Mahomes is not taking as many chances with his health as he used to because he has matured as a quarterback and realizes he doesn’t have to, and that it is risky.

All that has come together, and we are undefeated, despite many close calls. If our offence had of been able to live up to its potential before the injuries, this team would’ve been an unbelievable juggernaut.

If we beat San Francisco, and I certainly believe we can and will, I don’t see who’s going to defeat us this year. I can’t imagine we’ll go undefeated so someone will. But it will be
A trap game or a game at the end of the season when we are playing all substitutes because we don’t need to win.

They aren't holding shit back. They're just winning a different way. End of story.

I agree, but….. the issue was that early in the season you can see mahomes and Reid putting an emphasis on opening up the offense. Even with better pieces mahomes looks like he’s missing that gear he used to have. He was double clutching, holding onto the ball, skittish in the pocket, tunnel vision to the lower ADOTs. It’s not alarming, it just feels like something mahomes needs to work through. While we may limit our sets, Reid and spags will often find things to work on and make them points of emphasis early on.

What we did in NO will work. But I think we’ll will regress to a mean to ugly games like earlier in the year. We have the defense and running game to manage games this way. But I’d st

They're not executing or scoring how they want no, but what I'm saying is Andy isn't gonna show his best cards in October in order to make it better.

They'll either clean it up with penalties and execution or they won't, but either way, they save wrinkles and new stuff for gotta have it moments.

They do it every year. They'll run that same FB trap play every damn time on 4th and 1, and then it'll be late in the AFCCG and they'll have some spin off of it we've never seen that works to perfection.

I mean even corn dog was a relatively new thing.

I absolutely believe if this D wasn't elite and we needed 30+ ppg to win, then Patrick Mahomes would be playing at an MVP level. He knows he doesn't have to, so he doesn't play as good. I'm sure dragging this team got pretty exhausting, so now that he doesn't have to he's gonna let the D do it.

If he knows that he can rely on his D, then he doesn't have to play out of his mind. If the D wasn't elite, then he'd be playing better. It's like at the end of the game if we need points to take the lead, then I am more sure than I've ever been that Patrick is going to take this team on a game winning drive.

Patrick Mahomes delivers when he has to and the only example of him not doing that was the OT loss to the Bengals in the AFCCG. He delivered right before the EOR with a 14 play 6+ minute drive to tie the game. He just failed in OT. The only time he's ever failed in that position and he's been in that position a ton of times.

Corn dog was shown one time in 2022. Mahomes did not run on option plays until the SB last year (4th and 1 OT play), McKinnon wasn’t used as a FB until the Eagles SB, the awesome Pacheco 4th and 1 play in Eagles SB where everybody pulled to the left wasn’t used until that play and the Hardman play to win it all wasn’t used until then either.

They have shit they keep ready for the right time. I saw them in camp do a wrinkle with corn dog with Rice where he started to go outside but then quickly turned inside again.

Andy ain’t showing his cards until it’s time

I’ve never understood that thinking though.

If I have such a good defense…I’d think I’d be more aggressive on offense as the defense can bail me out

This makes no sense. What would be the purpose? To make himself more annoyed when shit doesn't work? He likes 3 and outs more now than he likes touchdowns back in the day? He likes winning games 17-14 rather than 30-14 and the whole team can take the 4th quarter off? He watches the defense give A+ effort to bail them out and is purposefully giving C effort just because he knows the D will bail them out?

Yep. And being aggressive on offense in turn makes the defense better. Imagine if the defense could be rested because the offense was sustaining drives. Imagine if they could pin their ears back late in games because the offense made it a multiple score game.

Being aggressive on offense is great until suddenly you throw a pick at your own 30 and give your awesome defense very little to work with. Suddenly the awesome defense doesn't look so awesome anymore. That was the whole story of last year.

Interesting take. I don't recall the Chiefs offense being particularly aggressive last season. I do recall them being the worst 2nd half offense in the league. One of the worst on 3rd and long. One of the lowest scoring offenses in the league. I recall Pat's ADOT being one of the lowest in the league in 2023.


But I don't remember them being very aggressive. Is there a link to an article or some vids I can look at?

When you have 3 RB's that are averaging 3.5 yds a carry or better. (Kareem at 4.5); you are going to be able to win a lot of games with the kind of defense we are playing.

They're pretty clearly doing both.

KC is averaging 3.9yds/carry. Making them 26th in the league in rush yds/carry. Currently, league-average appears to be about 4.7 yds/carry.

They don't score a lot of points when they go run heavy, especially since they get no explosive run plays. They're probably holding back some red zone plays, but the idea that this is all by design is a lot of cope.

Maybe aggressive is the wrong word.

We couldn't protect the football last year. And were also not doing a great job protecting the football this year. And what's the one thing that kills a great defense? Giving them a short field with no time to rest.

I'd like to dedicate this song to Megatron.

https://youtu.be/TZnraQmPFq8?si=pWdpCExl4nh5tDqY

It’s clear. When a team beats us in the regular season, their fans are chirping about it for years. Despite the fact that they have nothing to show for it, and the Chiefs are filling their fingers with rings!

Guy I work with who’s a Lions fan STILL talks about how they beat us last year game 1. Even through we won the SB. And he brings up the ****ing preseason game. YoU sTaRtEd KeLcE aNd MaHoMeS…..

Well yea.

Imagine as a counterfactual that Hollywood and Rice and Pacheco were 100% and KC lost Chris Jones for the season and the linebackers were in various states of coming in and out of the line up.

Heh. He's a Lions fan. The hell we went through prior to the Mahomes era was a stroll through a park on a beautiful day compared to what they endured. At least we had some good/near great teams and a single SB win in the distant past. They just had ass piled upon more ass. If he's a real, life-long fan and not some bandwagon idiot, he's entitled to his madness. God knows he earned it.

Well, at least I can cook.

I think it's a combination of things.

New pieces each season (last year they underperformed, this year injuries killed plan A, B, and C) so they're figuring each other out a bit.

Every team we play is fully focused and dying to beat us. It must be really difficult to be 100% focused 20 weeks a season. Sometimes our guys are just on cruise a bit.

Andy knows the defense can bail him out, so he's trying out new shit to see how it works.

These guys know when they need to hit the gas, and rarely fail to do so.

#always.

Many things can be true at once:

Andy is throttling the offense because of injuries and also his confidence in the defense
Mahomes is being very picky on when he runs with the ball to preserve his legs and health
Mahomes has not been playing well. Not accurate and not seeing open receivers
Turnovers and penalties are making the offense look worse than it is
The offense has the yips in the red zone

This combination of factors has us fans frustrated and biting our nails over first 5 games.