What is wrong with Mahomes' deep ball?
 

I was in the camp most of the season in saying that these guys are going to get on the same page, and eventually the deep shots will start hitting.

After today, I'm not sure this is the case.

Is this an offensive line issue? Just not enough time for Mahomes to set and fire an accurate deep ball?

Is it an WR issue? We have 1 burner in Worthy, but the rest of our receivers are slow.

Is it a Mahomes issue?

Someone smarter than me tell me what's going on.

He's doing it to piss the fans off so they have something to complain about during a 13-1 season.

We’ll Be Fine

He'll "magically" start hitting those in stride...just watch.

Here’s what I got.

1. Mahomes deep ball, even at its best, was usually regarded as average. He usually doesn’t put a whole lot of loft into it (likely because he doesn’t need to), but this makes deep throws harder to time and doesn’t leave the receiver with a whole lot of time to adjust.

2. There’s been great discussion on this in the Mahomes thread (by DJ and others) that Mahomes cut his teeth in the NFL primarily by receivers who were not great at over the shoulder catches. Hill is a great example here, as he liked to pivot and turn. This meant Mahomes spent his four years with primary pass catchers (Hill and Kelce) demanding that the grand majority of his balls be thrown in this fashion. Hill also gave Patrick a hell of a margin of error with perhaps the greatest tracking ability I’ve ever seen on a football field.

***Sammy Watkins is a major exception to this rule, as he grabbed three of Mahomes best long balls in his career during the postseason.

3. MVS continued this trend. He never seemed to have the over the shoulder catch mastered and preferred to turn and catch. He also seemed rather clueless on deep routes more often than not.

4. Now I believe Mahomes deserves a little grace for his line this season. He has been getting obliterated, and it’s caused him to lean into some bad habits. Kurt Warner, who has more often than not been critical of Mahomes through the years, has championed Mahomes play this year and credited Patrick as the reason why we were able to win the division. It makes sense that Mahomes has felt sped up this year especially as he tries to master timing with receivers he didn’t have coming into the year.

5. So where does that leave us? You take Patrick, who is elite in almost everything but the deep ball, and have him spend the first six years with a cast of receivers who also prefer not to catch the ball over the shoulder, and now ask him to fix this issue in a season where he’s had to rely on abysmal blocking on his blindside, and idk, it seems natural that there’s some issues as teams are now daring Patrick to win deep - especially as Patrick is grappling with lower body injuries (an issue through his career) and an admitted lack of trust with his tackles.

He's never been a great deep ball guy. He doesn't put enough air under the ball.

Deep balls are a lot about anticipation

I don’t think he reads it out quick, then late has to throw it more on a line to get there

You actually think he’s missing them intentionally to create drama or something?

The season long pass protection issues… even when it has been okay, it has scarred him.

It’s a combination of factors (obviously the poor protection and not having a recover like Tyreek are huge factors) but it seems like it’s in his head at this point. He has the yips when it comes to deep balls. He’s usually sailing it well past his target. It’s sad to see him go from one of the better deep ball passers in the NFL to one of the worst.

for SR

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Funny, the one negative thing you’ll catch a Bills fan saying about Allen is that his deep ball is inconsistent.

He has been very hesitant on basically all anticipation throws this year.

Yeah I don’t know if it’s the turnovers the last few years or what

Yeah, it seems like he’s so afraid of a turnover he’s constantly double clutching and the ball isn’t coming out on time.

If he had hit on the 7-8 bombs this year...do you think teams would defend them differently in the post-season?

I think this whole season has been a fact finding mission for a three-peat....that has always been the main objective. To make history...it's never been done for a reason. It's almost impossible...

I think they've been keeping things close to the vest until they are needed...whenever they need a drive, they suddenly kick in gear.

I think this has been a deliberate strategy from day one...red zone plays have shown little creativity all year.

If I'm correct...it'll go down as one of the biggest snowjobs in sports history. They'll be talking about it 50 years from now.

Who cares?

San Francisco scored 6 points this week.

Count your blessings. Chiefs are fine. MORE than fine.

Think about it...you have a lot of looks you havent shown all year and you deliberately start every game conservatively....if you arent in a position of needing to use them, why would you?

Save that shit for you absolutely need it...I dont think this NFL record of one score games is an accident. Every game kind of looks the same regardless of opponent...and they still haven't topped 30 points.

You really think KC showed the Bills anything?

Chiefs were a D-Hop drop away from scoring 28 today. Oh noes!!!

Yep zero doubt he’ll hit his stride down the stretch.

Dont know what's wrong, but I will say watching Josh Allen have all day to throw, is something to behold.

Also, when Reek was here, he made a lot of it happen because he could track the ball so well and run it down. We dont have that WR right now, or the time, to consistently hit the deep stuff.

Yep its pretty simple.

That wasn't a drop. The defender made a great play. Hopkins almost made a better play. But yes, if he pulls that down, they likely go up 28-0 and maybe Mahomes gets pulled early in the 4th before the injury.

You didn’t mention the missed chip shot field goal too

Remember those crossing routes that Rice was torching teams with...then JuJu did for one game? Where did those go?

I haven't seen that play in months....no one could stop it.

What's the over/under those suddenly start again in a few weeks?

His deep ball seems flat not alot of air on it

He missed that because his injured knee gave out on him.

The hill things makes no sense and I've always said so. Hill made over the shoulder catches plenty of times when the ball was thrown well and in stride. The only reasons he turned were if Mahomes underthrew it or threw too flat to catch over the shoulder which happened a lot or if he needed to jump and attack the ball because there was a safety on top and he wanted to catch the ball before the safety could make a play on it. But if Mahomes put some air under the ball, he had no problem catching it over his shoulder.

It's always been a Mahomes thing. He just struggles with putting air under the ball and letting players run under it in stride.

I remember a line from Sun Tzu's "The Art of War"...

"Never interfere when your enemy is making a mistake"...every team is playing KC like it's their SB. Bills showed their hand by suddenly playing more man than they ever have before. Chiefs arent showing more than they have to.

They burned that surprise too early...it was a strategic mistake.

Hopefully KC can sucker the Steelers/Texans into the same trap...

We're about to find out.

JFC no he didn't. His extra points were fine. He just slipped on the grass. FFS. Butker's knee didn't give. He ALWAYS falls to the ground that way.

I get the "he's never been good at the long ball" stuff for those 3rd and short bombs, but a few long passes today weren't "**** it Worthy down there somewhere" and throw it as far as humanly possible, they were relatively easy throws for what, like ~30-40 yards?

And yeah the line sucks, but this is the same quarterback who used to throw cross-body 40 yards across and downfield to guys on a dime or throw it 50 yards downfield on the run, and he's struggling with relatively simple throws with no one in his face or breathing down his neck.

That wasn't the case in college. I think he respects those pro defenses more than he should, ends up putting way too much juice on the throws instead of just putting a nice touch on the ball like he did many times in college hitting the receivers in stride on the deep ball.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Patrick Mahomes has been pressured 54% of the time today, per <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNStatsInfo</a>. <br><br>That&#39;s the highest pressure rate he&#39;s faced in a game since 2020.</p>&mdash; Seth Walder (@SethWalder) <a href="https://twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1868398806561415418?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 15, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

My suspicion is that it might have something to do with this

Idk but I hate it

Only if you didn't watch the game or know what throws I was talking about, or read my post where I said he wasn't getting pressured on those throws at all, or that he used to get pressured frequently and still throw accurately downfield.

Besides that, yeah thanks for the suggestion, I never would have thought of it.

He threw a great deep ball last year. The WRs refused to catch them..

I have a habit of skimming posts trashing Mahomes for missing some throws in meaningless December games while his offensive line is consistently getting destroyed as bad as it has in 5 years, my bad.

On those little xy charts for under pressure he was routinely all my himself in the upper right corner.

Yeah that could be it. I also think that because he knows he has a strong arm, he's scared he's going to overthrow someone if he just moons it so he just throws right at them on a line just to be safe. Kind of like how Alex Smith knew he didn't have a strong arm and would put everything he had into a throw and end up overthrowing the receiver. So it could be a case of overcorrection.

But that wouldn't explain the way he's overthrowing the deep ball on some plays. I don't know, just spitballing here.

I think it is a combo of him being an average deep ball accuracy thrower but I still think the bigger issue is trust. He doesn’t trust his OL, doesn’t trust his WRs and now he doesn’t trust himself.

He will find it eventually. I think he needed a full season with both Hollywood and worthy to get into the groove. Let’s hope in a short time he can still get the mojo back. Meantime he’s done just fine with being below average at it recently so this is just about taking greatness to the next level

Give him the time Josh Allen is getting in the pocket this year and you’re looking at a completely different discussion but it seems most would rather not have that discussion.

Those pressure percentages just don’t match up with the eye test.

On many of those today, it’s him scrambling up into pressure in the pocket.

Thuney was as solid of LT play as we’ve had all year. He might have to stay out there, IDK.

At some point if this team is going to get it done, Patrick’s gotta snap out of this mental funk and execute the offense. He’s got way too much going on between the ears right now and it’s making issues around him look even bigger.

He has to anticipate and let the ball rip. Stop trying to be so perfect and aim these throws. That’s what it looks like to me.

You made me watch Hill’s 2022/2023 highlights and search the Dolphins subreddit after this.

He definitely made more over the shoulder catches than I gave him credit for in those highlights. He did lead the league in drops in 2023, and some Dolphins fans claimed he struggled to reel in over the shoulder balls that hit him in the hands. Idk. My eye test says he always preferred to pivot and make more of a basket catch against his body, and I still see that more often than not watching his Phin highlights.

Clayster ain’t worried

I also wonder how much of this is about thinking about the throw. Anybody who’s ever played infield knows the feeling when you start thinking about that throw to first base. I’ve often felt that he throws a really good deep ball off platform. He is worse when his feet are set and he steps into a throw.

That's really all I've got for why there's such a huge difference between the average shitty drive and the last minute come from behind or OT drive (or a couple hurry up drives here and there)... there are (theoretically) times when he's trying to work on things with the offense and so forth, and there are times when he's trying to win a game. And the latter is when he gets out of his head about it and just plays football.

Then you get into the playoffs and it's far more Kelce, far more DHop, getting out of the pocket more to create the dual threat of taking off... just anything to keep the chains moving.

We all saw what happened in the Bucs SB... he ran for 10 miles behind the LoS and was still hitting guys 40 yards downfield (even if balls were going through hands and bouncing off helmets). Pressure only does so much.

Well that'd be all good and fine if it wasn't for the fact that

A. The plays that they are calling are perfectly fine and if excited correctly would absolutely work.

B. Patrick and pretty much the entire team looks pissed after most of these games and you can tell they are frustrated they aren't playing better.

No amount of advanced play calling is gonna matter if they don't execute.

That's because pressure also accounts for when Mahomes holds on to the ball too long and when they leave a clean pocket. Which Mahomes does.

He has the same pocket time as Josh Allen and Burrow this season at 2.3 seconds

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php

And don't get your quarterback killed in the process.

That doesn't sound accurate with Allen. He drops back and has a million years to throw. Been the case every time I watch Buffalo.

19 of 20.

8 of those 19 are because Mahomes led a game-winning drive. Hell maybe 9, not sure if the playoff game in Buffalo counts. Chiefs took the lead early in the 4th.

Anyway, please and thank you.

This post rocks. It’s everything I’ve been thinking but haven’t been able to get out in the way you just did.

It really felt like today he decided, **** it, IDC what the circumstances suggest, I’m going to hit on some deep throws. At a minimum I’m going to at least look for them as primary reads often.

So many of these regular season games for the offense do have a practice-y feel to them.

But if they start rolling in the playoffs it’s gonna be because they just locked the **** in and started playing free.

They’re not “practicing”

They’re playing shitty.

I get it. We can’t expect him to make big plays under pressure or from clean pockets because he has PTSD.

Well no shit. But if you’re making a concerted effort to force deep throws even when they aren’t there, then you aren’t staying true to the offense and how’s it’s supposed to be ran. You’re trying to practice something that you haven’t been doing well all year long and the offense is suffering because of it.

It's climate change

Making it worse by trying to do that crap in 25 mph wind mixed with wet ball/rain. Strange approach. Thankfully the KC defense offset those wasted plays by Mahomes & Andy today.

It truly reminded me of a kid who was bored with his Madden franchise and just decided to throw every down because nothing else sounded fun. And that’s been a lot of the past few weeks really.

Thankfully we didn’t have a day like Detroit losing a bunch more bodies for the year. But the playoffs can’t come fast enough cause I’m not sure anything good can come of these regular season games besides wins anymore.

Yeah, was it the Bills game where they had the all-Worthy touchdown drive, and I think he got like 1 target the rest of the game... and that happened a bit today, too, even though he had a few other targets the rest of the game.

They did that DHop slant for a touchdown in his first or second game and have very rarely gone back to it, even though you really have to assume that's going to be a go-to in the postseason.

We put hours of thought into trustring receivers, trusting the line, learning the playbook, etc... and then you watch Amari Cooper make an immediate impact while Allen slings it around.

It shouldn't look THIS difficult for the best quarterback in the league, all things considered.

They honestly do look like playing offense is hard, Mahomes went from being the ****ing Boogeyman against the blitz to now it's 50/50 if the ball even comes out.

So what is your theory that he cant throw A deep ball this year?

I think it gets fixed with Hollywood Brown coming back to play.


Everything else will open up and it will be more efficient offense. The deep ball is just a luxury.

He has never been great. I know there was some wind and moisture out there it seems today. I am going to chalk up the drips and being so off to that.

He needs to learn some touch and let wr run to the ball though.

Wr drops like Worthy's bumbling on " easy" receptions. Kelce has regressed in this area too, makes spectacular grabs then doesn't catch it and kills the drive.

The Hopkins throw today was good imo. And if you think back to the playoffs he had that monumental deep pass to MVS to win the game and in the superbowl that massive throw to Hardman to get us into the ten.

Imo Pat is up and down with his deep passes. Sometimes it's his fault, other times it's not. MVS dropped that one against the Eagles last season too.

This year the Worthy bomb vs The Chargers was also good. It would be interesting to see how they would be if he had a good line around him.

I dont believe for a second that Mahomes has forgot how to throw the football...that air-mailed TD pass to Kelce in the Donks game was..."special". I've never seen him miss a play like that...sure kept the game close though...the "fan duel" special.

It was bad enough for me to start thinking it might have been deliberate....the assassin version of Mahomes has been MIA. It's felt off almost all season...like he's just doing the bare minimum to win games...because he IS that good.

There is MAYBE 2-3 throws all season where it was worthy's fault they didn't connect. That leaves at least 10-12 deep balls that sucked from Mahomes. That doesn't mean Mahomes sucks now, just that Mahomes needs more practice in live games to hit that long ball.

Gonna be honest here and it sounds weird but it’s true watching the tape: he’s thinking way too much.

He turned the ball over too much early and you can tell he’s purposefully not trying to put the ball in harms way. The overthrows today, especially to Worthy in the endzone, looked like a purposeful overthrow to avoid risk.

Others like the disastrous Worthy overthrow out of bounds vs Denver was due to the OL. His feet were a mess and he sped everything up. Same thing on the miss in SF.

He’s thinking far too much. And he’s also meshing with new players on the fly and it’s tough developing chemistry with a bad OL. And Kelce, Watson and Hopkins are not man-beaters. They can’t get open the way a QB needs guys to get open.

It’s a constant wheel of messiness making the QB think too much.

Right you are

I hate to say the dreaded word... Yips... Patrick has the yips. When he is thinking about what he is doing instead of reacting to the play, it becomes mechanical and forced. It's like a golfer standing over a chip shot; the practice swing is smooth and when the actual shot occurs, the real swing is short and choppy. I believe he will get out of it.

Skyy Moore

LOL, yep it's all Mahomes fault because Worthy knows all the route concepts with great hands l coupled with no drops in bounds/sarcasm.

Nonsense.

What has happened to D drop

Mahomes is his own worst enemy right now. He's dropping his eyes to the rush. He's playing sloppy with his mechanics. He's pressing and not going through reads. All kinds of shit. Then you get the added bonus of actual pressure and the issues there and bam... shit sandwich.

The only way I see Mahomes breaking out of this funk is either A) Humphries somehow ends up the savior we all want and Mahomes' jersey stays clean for a couple of weeks in a row or B) the playoffs hit and Mahomes somehow flips a switch into "**** it" mode and just starts playing street ball again. If neither of those happen, I don't see the playoffs going as we hope because this shit is a straight-up disaster right now.

The problem with him being so football smart and seeing everything is he might be processing stuff that’s not happened yet, but could be one or two ticks away. Some might call that ghosts, but I think that takes a negative connotation, and this shouldn’t. His anticipation of off the charts and he’s like Dr. Strange seeing the tens of millions of outcomes at once.

Mahomes is out there playing chess and seeing the pieces on the field move several steps ahead and not only is he trying to anticipate and manipulate the defense, he’s got to factor in some of the offensive shortcomings on line and in the WR corps. He can do it all, but it’s probably overloading him and causing a short circuit at times.


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Deep balls require a great deal of pass protection...more so than dink and dunk passes.