AFC Stock Up / Stock Down, Post-Free Agency
 

Let's discuss how we think each AFC team has done so far this offseason and if they project as better, worse, or about the same entering the draft (where the champion of the conference will ultimately be determined)

AFC West

Chiefs: Better. My main reason actually has a lot to do with how much bad luck the offense had last year - it would be hard not to improve based on that alone. But it appears LT has some stability, although I'm not sure they're done adding there. The WR trio is one of the best in all of football, though they've yet to play a game together. The Fulton signing is my favorite because it's a force multiplier, allowing Trent to go back to the Star/Nickel role where he can impact games at an elite level and Connor plays Safety. We're a Charles Omenihu away from being in a really great spot entering the draft.

Chargers: Same. Feels like much the same team with the same limitations that will get them bounced in January. They're trying to do it the right way though, building through the draft. May be some short term pain for some long term gain. They need more speed on O.

Broncos: Better. Hate to say that I largely really like what Payton has done so far. They're rolling the dice on some ex-49ers with health question marks, but the defense is set up to be top-five once again. Nix and how he handles the sophomore year is critical, but this looks like a sure-fire playoff team.

Raiders: Better. This is only about the QB, by getting Geno they HAVE to be better. Still not ready to compete at the highest level and won't be for awhile.

AFC East

Bills: Slightly better. This one could easily be "worse" once Joey Bosa has his inevitable long-term injury. Beane did his normal thing, kept his own guys on reasonable contracts. I don't love switching Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins out for Josh Palmer, but maybe I'm stupid. Overall they're betting that their core guys can finally get it done in Jan. Must have a great draft.

Patriots: Much better. Look, they've paid out the nose and a lot of these deals won't age well. But they are much better on paper with these new players. They will win at minimum three more games this yr under Vrabel. If Maye is legit, they are wild card contenders.

Dolphins: Worse. A lot of bad contracts are finally catching up to them. Mike McDaniels days are numbered, just like Tyreek's.

Jets: Worse. Coaching may get them further along this year, but the roster is not any better. I'm not a Justin Fields believer. This team won't be in the playoffs, AGAIN.

AFC North

Ravens: Same. Their only addition is Hopkins, but they kept the Left Tackle. Haven't lost anyone of consequence. This is as same as same gets. Great organization will probably have a nice draft and be right back in the playoffs.

Steelers: Better. Rodgers will be an improvement when he inevitably signs here. Love the Metcalf addition, knocks Pickens down a peg. They'll still struggle to win a playoff game however, if they make it.

Bengals Worse. I'm dying on the hill that they're using the wrong scape goats. Lou Anarumo was the biggest reason for their deep playoff runs, and they didn't continue to give him the requisite talent to succeed. Now, they're putting all their eggs into the same basket that hasn't got it done yet. Burrow will get his stats, but this defense will stink. If Hendrickson walks, they miss the playoffs again.

Browns Better. Kept Myles Garrett and will most definitely improve at QB. Could contend for playoffs as they seem so unpredictable year to year.

AFC South

Texans: Worse. Traded away Tunsil, that alone makes it this for now. I do like the depth they've added on DL, as they will need to draft offense if they want to fix last year's woes and get Stroud back on track.

Jaguars Same. Nothing really to note here. Still a lacking roster that will bank on coaching to maximize Trevor and contend in the worst AFC division.

Titans Same. Dan Moore was an overpay, but does raise the floor of the offense. QB is the ?. I foresee this being the last year of Brian Callahan before Mike Borgonzi might just try to pluck Steve Spagnuolo from us.

Colts Slightly better. I like the adds of Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum in a secondary that really needed some dogs back there. QB is still going to hold them back and finally end the Chris Ballard era next January.

Far too much projection to assume the Chiefs got better, IMO.

We lost an elite LG who will now be replaced by a total question mark. Our new LT is a backup who looked decent in spot duty. We lost a good S and a good, versatile DE. We lost two reliable, if unspectacular, RBs. We also lost a ton of snaps in the WR room, though I am counting that as a win. I think we need new blood there.

Thuney was our best OL. An All-Pro future HOF. Best LG in football.

Sure they added a couple of nice vet players and a lottery ticket LT, but they objectively got slightly worse on paper losing a legit blue chip player.

Doesn’t mean they won’t be better overall after the draft. But shit man. This team won 15 games. Hard to match that every year.

Chiefs are up, everyone else down IMO

They lost Thuney, OK

They’re also getting a #1 WR and the LT was a traffic cone for much of the year.

How many teams are getting that?

It's also for a team that was the 1 seed and has been to the Super Bowl 3 years in a row. Not looking for a roster overhaul. Most of those other teams are.

That's a lot better than what we had last year. It's not ideal, but definitely better, or at least we're hoping it is.

And my thing is, yeah we were 15-1, but that was a TOUGH 15-1.

I’ll take 12-13 wins with an offense that’s much more stable and in-sync every single time. It’s incredible what they did last year, but that was on sheer drive for the threepeat. In a lot of ways, the 2022 team was better and that’s something I think they can get back closer to even it’s a 12-5, 13-4 team.

Jags are definitely worse. They ****ing suck

Meh, if Moore is even average, Rice stays healthy, and Worthy takes even a small step forward our offense is going to be at another level compared to last season. Especially if we draft a legit RB.

The left side of the line is legitimately a question mark rn, though. I still need to see each teams draft before I really feel comfortable projecting records and all that.

Jaguars and Titans gotta be two of the favorites in the Archie Manning sweepstakes.

giants????

Just from the AFC South. Thought I specified that but didn't.

If you’re counting Rashee’s return then that helps your case but we have to note that he’s still coming off of injury and facing possible suspension.

We’ve lost about 1,000 snaps from the RB room, another 1,000 at S losing J Reid, 900 at DT losing Wharton and probably Nnadi, and another 200+ from a really good situational pass rusher in Omenihu.

We don’t really have any in-house answers for those losses outside of Hicks. Even that makes us worse, IMO, as we’re now that much thinner at the position.

I’m just not sure we can realistically expect the kinds of performances we’ve grown accustomed to lately from a bunch of rookies and second-wave FAs.


That’s what I’m getting at. I’m optimistic about Moore at LT but being realistic, he could crash and burn. As could Kingsley at LG. That entire left side of the line is a complete unknown.

tbh it wouldnt shock me if the jags won 9-10 games this year. i dont think their roster is even close to as bad as a team like Tennessee or the NYG. I just think they had a no good horrible year and that they’ll turn back into more of the bubble team they were the two years prior. Also think Cohen could be pretty decent but we’ll see, he could definitely turn out to be shit.

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the texans looked super mid all year and they just traded their LT. Jags are very likely to add a really good player at 5 to their D. titans we know will be bad. colts are in purgatory. I certainly don’t expect the Jags to be a 2-4 win team next year. 5-6 at worst IMO

I was just drawing a distinction between what we saw in our various LTs last year, and what we saw from Moore even if only in spot duty. Our LT play was so horrific that we had to move our star OG into the spot.

It's certainly not a straight up comparison between what we had and Moore, but within the limitations of the comparison we do have, we look to be better.

LMAO

We were so ****ing slow and old on offense last year. We're clearly going to be much better once we draft a RB and get Rashee back. I don't know what Moore's ceiling is but he's an obvious upgrade over the shit we had at LT. Zero doubt.

None of our primary AFC competitors — not Buffalo, Baltimore, LA, or Denver — are returning a player like Rashee Rice. They all were very lucky not to suffer that type of loss. So you absolutely have to factor him into the calculus year over year.

The RB snaps they are losing largely stunk. Hunt was the only decent player and he couldn’t break a single 20-yard run, so even he was not playing in his ideal role at near 30 years old.

Hicks is here to take Reid’s role. I’ll hear you on Wharton and Omenihu, but I think Charles is coming back. And it’s the perfect draft to restock your DL anyhow.

I’m not saying it’s hyperbolic, but the Kansas City arrow is at least pointing somewhat up.

And that should worry the rest of the league.

Patriots still don't have an offensive line. Defensively, they are better, but they lost their center and made no improvements to the LT/LG position.

The biggest risers have to be the Patriots and Raiders. Vrabel is a great defensive coach and they got 5 good players in FA. I’m a bit biased bc I’m a Drake Maye truther, but their defense looks like it could be top 10, especially with Barmore coming back. Like getting Morgan Mosses at RT. Draft will be huge for them. I think they could give the Bills problems.

Raiders went from arguably the worst HC and QB to a proven HC who isn’t a moron and a QB who is probably average. Not saying they are some hype team. They won 4 games and will probably win 6, maybe 7. Fully expect good ole Pete to take Jeanty at 6 to be his new Marshawn bc Pete loves running the football.

On the other end, the biggest losers are without question the Bengals. Basically kept their own average players and ****ed around by holding their best players hostage. Perfect year to trade Higgins and get a high draft pick and they don’t do it despite not being able to pay.

Their GM said he wants to make Chase the highest paid non-QB, which at the time was $36 million. Now that Myles Garrett just destroyed that market it’s $40 million LMAO

The only thing rivaling the Chiefs success is watching that stupid ****ing poverty cocky ass franchise fall apart with a young top 5 QB ever since they called us Burrowhead

Chiefs need Rashee to be a top 10 wr in the league next year and Fau to be a legit de

Get those things and you’re golden

Tyreek days are numbered with the Phins?

Come on home Tyreek!!

On paper we look similar.

As of now pre-draft, if we went into the season like this I would expect our defense to be the strength of the team finishing top 5-7.


The offense I expect to be mediocre and be in the 12-14 overall range.

Luck has a big factor of course. We tend to be healthier going into the playoffs and SB than pretty much every team we've faced. That's what makes losing so disappointing because you don't know if you'll have that same fortune the following year.

Our defense was completely healthy in the playoffs and SB. The offense didn't have Rice, but we made several moves since his injury so it's not like he got hurt in week 18.

Our roster is good enough to win the SB. Just need good luck to keep the key players healthy.

Also, it would help if we can draft two rookies who can contribute meaningfully. It would also help if Wiley or Kingsley have a better sophomore season.

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the texans looked super mid all year and they just traded their LT. Jags are very likely to add a really good player at 5 to their D. titans we know will be bad. colts are in purgatory. I certainly don’t expect the Jags to be a 2-4 win team next year. 5-6 at worst IMO

Theoretically, Chiefs are finally getting Brown and Rice at the same time....with Worthy having a year in the system. Unless they get hurt again...that's a major upgrade.

I haven't been paying attention if new threads haven't been started. **** megathreads.

Did Omenihu sign somewhere? Our RBs... did Hunt sign somewhere? Perine? Or are they just hanging out waiting for a phone call?

Who are the snaps we lost at WR? Did Justin Watson go somewhere? He's the only one I can think of. Hopkins signed, but that guy was looking traaaaash

AFC Stock Up / Stock Down, Post-Free Agency
 

I think you have to add Suamataia to that list as well.

Only Perine is signed elsewhere of the names you mentioned, but the question is whether we got better or not. All of those guys are currently not contracted by the Chiefs so I won’t assume they’ll end up back with us.

At this very moment in time, on paper, I don’t believe we can presume to be better. The draft can change a lot but obviously that often just invokes more questions/uncertainties.

Yeah, I think our arrow is always pointing in a general upward direction as long as we’ve got Mahomie and Reid.

I’m not a doomer. I claimed we were clearly worse off immediately after trading Tyreek Hill as well and one nifty little draft completely threw that prediction on its head. We can do the same again. We’ll just need to prove it on the field.

We won a SB WITHOUT Thuney fgs but folks seem to have short memories.

:spock:

Man, there's some negative Nancies up in here.

2023 KC was 16th in Points Per Play on Offense.

2024 KC was 14th in Points Per Play on Offense.

2025 KC will be 1st in Points Per Play on Offense!!!!!

With a gaping holes at LT, minus our top two WR's for almost all of the season, minus our starting RB.

So yeah, if we have a ton of injuries this season too, we might struggle.

If they're relatively healthy, I'd be pretty confident that the team with Rice, Worthy, and Brown finishes better than the one with Toney, Moore, and MVS.

Rice, Brown, and Pacheco coming back healthy is a big plus.

Omenihu was also out all last season, so I’m hoping we can bring him back and he'll replace Wharton’s production.

Losing Thuney doesn’t help our OL situation, I’m not sold on Moore yet.

Living in Denver and listening to local talk radio, the Broncos are a year away. After this year, the Russ Wilson dead cap hits are a thing of the past and Bo Nix will be on a rookie deal. If they have a couple great drafts and attack free agency hard a year from now, I suspect the AFC West race will be as tight as it has been in years in 2026/2027.

Rice and Worthy having that connection with Mahomes is gonna be awesome. Hollywood as WR3 is even more lethal.

They are adding a talented RB as well. As long as LT doesn’t crater and we don’t have devastating injuries we’ll be scoring points

The dumb**** that constantly cried about WR1 is ignoring the importance of getting back our WR1?

Breaking in a new LT.

Breaking in a new guard next to him after losing Joe Thuney.

Kelce another year older.

Rice to be suspended.

RB 1 coming back from injury.

Another year with Matt Nagy at OC.

Even with Rice on the field last year Chiefs offense was mediocre.



Hoping they can add a fast and skilled RB in the draft and need to pray Jaylon Moore and Kingsley/Nourad are ready to go.

How many games did a healthy Rice, Hollywood, and a Worthy that wasn't green have together?

****ing zero.

You cried non-stop about WRs for years on end and now that the Chiefs are stacked at the position you want to ignore it?

Rice and Worthy were together last year and in those games the offense was not even top ten.


Rice is a very good player but he is not prime Travis Kelce as a difference maker.

Yes a rookie Worthy in his first few games. You're talking about a handful of games, where the Chiefs also didn't have Hollywood on top of Worthy going through some growing pains.

Anybody that isn't a disingenuous bundle of sticks can see the difference in Worthu from the first few games to today. Now he gets a full offseason.

You've been downplaying how good Worthy was down the stretch because you're a full blown hater. You're not even a real Chiefs fan.

Nix is just another AFCW crater-faced runner up.

Rice and Worthy stepped up and became WR1s as rookies with great playoff performances.

Now they get to pair up as veterans that complement each other perfectly. Hollywood is just the icing on the cake.

Kelce gets to be in the role he should've been in last year.

Only a bundle of sticks that wants to bitch and complain endlessly moving from WRs to OTs to Nagy could not be optimistic about this offense.

Being dimwitted and slow doesn't make you a better fan.

15 year old in Hawaii that became a Chiefs fan when Mahomes was drafted. Definition of bandwagon

You joined right around the time Mahomes became a Chief. You've constantly displayed that your loyalty is with Mahomes and him only. You're a ****ing fake Chiefs fan dude, just own it.

Imagine calling Mahomes the GOAT then turning around and saying you aren't even confident he can out together top 3 offense with Rice, Worthy, Hollywood, Kelce, Gray, a healthy Pacheco, and likely a high pick at RB.

LMAO

I don't care that you are a fan because you were born into it.


I was a Mahomes fan in college and I became a Chiefs fan because I wanted to watch him in the NFL.


There are plenty of us on this board and we don't care what some miserable codger like you thinks.


You're a dinosaur.

Even Brady had years like that when Patriots offense got stale when he was in his early 30's.


I didn't say he couldn't do it.

I would love Reid to come back energized and relegate Nagy to cheerleading. If that happens, awesome.

Many members of this board became Chiefs fans when Montana came over from San Francisco. These guys are just hating on different generations. You’re welcome aboard the ship.

Better go study for your ACT's, bud.

JFC you're comparing this group of weapons to the dogshit that Brady had then?

You're such a disingenuous loser.

Just say it, you don't think Rice and Worthy are that good. That's the only way anything you're saying makes any sense whatsoever.

I'm a Chiefs fan now and will continue so even after Mahomes retires.



Of course it will suck though unless we get another star at QB.

You don't speak for the rest of us bundle of sticks.

The kid wasn’t here when it was hard being a Chiefs fan and didn’t earn what the members of this board did. He didn’t live through the pain of all the playoff losses or Save Our Chiefs movement or any of it pre-Mahomes.

He’s as bandwagon as the Swifties and should be treated as such. He’ll go latch onto another franchise that is the best in the NFL at some point soon enough. They always do.

Never took those. Took the SAT and had higher scores than the average at Harvard.


So good enough.


;)

Getting angry again. Gonna choke your wife a little tonight? Maybe kick the dog or yell at your kid?

Read his posts in DC. A lot of them are calling people “low T” repeatedly. And we all remember him using the Alpha card repeatedly to shit all over Worthy.

I would bet my house that this kid isn’t even old enough to drive LMAO

Worthy was an Alpha in the Super Bowl.

Imagine going to bat for a "fan" that would shit on anybody all the way to Andy to protect Patrick because he's not an actual fan of the team. Anybody that has been paying attention the last few years knows what this guy is.

The truth is you're just going to bat for him because it's me he's going back and forth with right now. That's how pathetic and petty you are.

I think the defense has a good chance at being top 5 now and Veach is probably going heavy defense in the draft.


I would really like Andy to come back and get creative. Don't run the offense like the last few years.

The funniest thing I’ve seen here recently is when DJs Nut and you got into a pissing match over something that doesn’t matter in the slightest. And you backed down like the little hand-wringing cuck that you are. The totem pole of drafturbators is very important to you but your ranking on it is so low.

I'm approaching the end of my 5th decade as a Chiefs fan and lived through all the misery you're talking about, but only joined the board a few years back. I can't see anything particularly special about having endured all the misery the Chiefs brought us for so long, except for the fact that it made the SB wins so much more special. For those that are only recent converts, I hope you don't have to go through the pain and torture the rest of us did.

ETA - Hah! I posted this a week ago and only just noticed that it's been almost 6 decades, not 5.

Backed down? You mean when I told him to suck my ****ing dick?

Yea, sure backed down there. I have a level of respect for DJ, and I consider him some kind of online "friend", but your definition of backing down is hilarious.

I never once backed down. Not even in the slightest.

How about this, how about you show your work. How exactly did I "back down"? Let's see the receipts.

You think he's going to stick around when Mahomes retires?

If he doesn't, he's only a slightly better version of Sandy Cheeks.

I am hoping that Minshew can help with that. He specifically went to Wazzu to learn under Leach and was going to go into coaching after he was done. He thought it was his last chance to play.

The fact that the Super Bowl wins mean more is important. I don't necessarily disagree with you but the noobs don't have the perspective you and I have. The wins don't mean as much and the natural offshoot of that is that the losses mean MORE.

There's a lot of people here that don't appreciate how truly lucky we are.

I know it got posted in the Chargers hype thread but ICYMI, Cowherd picked the Chargers to win the west and had us the 7 seed.

And the explanation was every bit as a bad and more as you’d expect. Just hoping the Chiefs see it. LMAO

I want to see Minshew's facial expressions at some of these Nagy play calls in game.

I'm not sure we got better overall.

I hate to say this but I think the Raiders are going to be sneaky good and surprise a lot of people.

I think the Chargers are overrated and will be average.

The Broncos could go either way.

Jets, Titans, and Jaguars all trainwrecks.

Steelers got better w Metcalf but will go BACKWARDS if they sign Rodgers.

Texans D will keep them in many games but CJ Stroud gotta deliver more.

Miami's wheels are coming off and I see a big decline for them.

Buffalo and Ravens kept teams intact so they will be playoff bound again.

Browns will under deliver as always.

Patriots will be better but may take a few years to get much better.

Colts underwhelming.

Bengals need to get off to a better start but their defense still sucks. They should be back in the playoffs and Joe Burrow is the best pocket passer in the NFL.

I'm worried about you.

At the end of the season the 3 best teams in the AFC were the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs

Today the 3 best teams in the AFC are the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs

If healthy, WR is better than last year. Considerably.

RB is the same and we haven’t had the draft yet. Expect an improvement.

TE is the same, but I’d expect Kelce to be in better shape.

C to RT is the same. LG should be better than Caliendo. LT should be better than Thuney.

DL is worse right now, since we don’t have Omenihu or Wharton. A heavy DL draft could change things.

LB is the same.

Safety is slightly worse, but Hicks improving in year 2 makes it likely at least as good. Probably better.

Corner is better.

Special teams are the same.

So in the draft, I’d expect 2-3 picks on the DL, a RB, a WR, and 2 DBs. The other pick or two would likely be a developmental OT and a LB.

We’re looking through the same lens and it’s the right prescription IMHO.

I have high expectations for where this offense is going. To what you said about the WRs, it’s a matter of can we get something similar to our health luck in 2018-2023, or do we get another 2024?

The odds of another 2024 are next to none, but there’s nothing that says it won’t be worse than some of the prior years still.

But if and when it’s the full trio of WRs, the added tools at RB, and hopefully a left tackle who doesn’t ever let a pass rusher destroy the gameplan… expectations are very high.

There’s a fine tipping point there where once an offense’s skill personnel gets to a certain level, it puts defenses on their heels in a way that even helps the offensive line. That’s where we have to aspire to be.

Quite simply, can you dominate certain defensive game plans with the speed of Worthy and Brown, some with the easy button that is Rashee Rice, can you use Kelce and Gray in a way that isn’t overkill but also lets them thrive, do you bring in that final piece to the RB room that allows all those guys to survive a 20-game season

One guy can make a bigger difference than people realize. Having Rashee Rice in those playoff games as the key cog not only makes us way harder to defend but it also makes life easier on the surrounding cast. He catches a couple slants for first downs early in the SB, and a game like that can play out completely different because you’re putting the defense more on their heels.

The WR group is the same group that couldn't get open in the SB vs. a stagnant defense that provided no mystery or change ups. Worthy got open, but that was it. No one got open fast enough shallow or intermediate to consistently move the offense.

And I'm not, at all, a believer in our new LT. We've got some evidence that he doesn't get pushed around and bullied at LT but also has limited athleticism and gets beat the same way Brown did. So, not really a solution but not a horrible disaster either. Just, put simply, not good enough.

This needs to be a good draft. I love the CB signing and with a healthy Watson and McDuffie that's likely to evolve into a shut down unit. Safety will take a step back but CB will take a huge step forward if McDuffie is primarily in the slot. Overall I think the defense is better this year. Hicks play will go a long way in determining that.

If we try and build the offense on quicker routes and delivering the football like we did vs. the Texans we could be very successful. Run the football with an even better room than last year and a younger O line. Overpaying for Tunsil would have bought us 3 years to solve the LT position until someone worth trading up for was in the draft. We could have done that much cheaper than we did with Brown but passed for some reason.

Once again LT play will determine our ceiling.

Andy Reid’s been trying to tell us for a month that he blames the SB primarily on there not being enough threat in the run game.

Kinda checks out when you see the way Philly’s front pinned their ears back and didn’t respect the possibility of runs at all.

Some of that’s on Andy no doubt, but the personnel was the personnel and Caliendo tanked a lot of our run blocking. When you’re getting that kind of blocking, you need a back that can create explosive runs on his own — we didn’t have that whatsoever with where Pacheco was in recovery.

Just don’t be shocked if and when KC takes RB before pick 66.

Let’s keep it real on the LT thing and not go full CP.

A bad block here or there, which Orlando Brown was prone to do, is NOT what set this offense back in any demonstrable way nor did that make Mahomes play with happy feet.

It was a game like Cincy or Vegas last year, where the LT could not block the edge whatsoever. Games where if Mahomes held it for 3 seconds he was getting hit 80+% of the time.

That’s the shit that cost us big time and had a domino effect week upon week.

So if you’re telling me Jaylon Moore is going to lose like Orlando Brown Jr. did? Sign me up yesterday. That’s not a problem. The no-hitters, the left tackle looking like he should play in the UFL — that’s what we can’t have for 15.