Mock 11/29/19
 

Something different to chew on...

Chiefs trade Sammy Watkins for 4th round pick.
Chiefs cuts:
SS D. Sorensen, OL C. Erving, RB D. Williams, P D. Colquitt, June-1 Designate LB A. Hitchens

Cap Space Pre-June-1 with Rollover approx $45.6 m. Post June-1 +$8.5 m

Chiefs FA signings:
QB R. Tannehill (TEN) 2 yrs 7.0 m w/ 1.5 signing bonus (sim to C. Henne) - approx 3.1 m yr 1
- Tannehill is a conservative, veteran, Reid-type backup that makes some sense. Nobody will love it, but it's hard to hate it. If you can get him to be a little less conservative, he's not that bad of a QB. Might have him too cheap but we'll see.
RB J. Howard (PHI) 2 yrs 5.5 m w/ 1.75 signing bonus (sim to D. Williams) - approx 2.4 m yr 1
- With the underperformance of Damien Williams, I think the Chiefs make a move. Howard knows a version of the offense and has been productive. At least his YPC is closer to 4.5 then 3.5, unlike Williams.
LB N. Kwiatkoski (CHI) 3 yrs 8.7 m w/ 2.6 signing bonus (sim to D. Wilson, C. Jones) - approx 2.1 m yr 1
- Every time Kwiatkoski steps on the field, he produces. Chiefs should give him a shot to be a starter, ala Damien Wilson.
LB J. Schobert (CLE) 5 yrs 85.0 m w/ 13.75 signing bonus (sim to C. Mosley) - approx 10.0 m yr 1
- Splash signing that requires some cap work in year 1 but would fortify the LB corps (pending Dorsey full-idiot mode w/ no franchise tag). Schobert is one of the best inside linebackers in the NFL and definitely one of the tops in terms of coverage. A guy always hits the market that you don't expect to. That said, the Rams' Cory Littleton would be a great consolation prize and he's much more likely to hit the market and probably will be a little cheaper, estimating at 11-12 per.
CB J. Mills (PHI) 3 yrs 16.0 m w/ 1.5 signing bonus (sim to N. Robey-Coleman) - approx 4.0 m yr 1
- Off and on injured but productive when on the field. He's not a track star, but he plays his man well and tackles really well. I think he's a guy you can get on a relatively friendly, short-term deal.
SS D. Thompson (DAL) 2 yr 4.0 m w/ 1.0 signing bonus (sim to M. Thomas) - approx 1.5 m yr 1
- Assignment sound when he gets his shots on the field. Comes up to support the run especially well.

Chiefs FA re-signings:
DT C. Jones 4 yrs 70.0 m w/ 22.0 m signing bonus (sim to G. Jarrett) - approx 13.0 m yr 1
- Chiefs go all-in here in the offseason, retaining one of the league's better interior pass rushers and he flexes well as a big end.
WR D. Robinson 2 yrs 7.0 m w/ 1.5 m signing bonus (sim to A. Hurns) - approx 3.1 m yr 1
- Robinson is effective here but probably shouldn't get a long-term deal. That said he'd ease the transition from Watkins' departure.
WR M. Kemp 1 yr ERFA tender 660k
- Probably camp fodder when all is said and done but cheap re-sign.
LG A. Wylie 1 yr ERFA tender 660k
- Worth keeping around as a reserve G/T.
TE D. Yelder 1 yr ERFA tender 660k
- Hasn't shown much but he's cheap and he's young.
QB P. Mahomes exercise 5th year option at league year then 4 yr $152 m extension (post June 1) w/ $67 m guaranteed
- Chiefs take care of Mahomes in the offseason and reach an agreement to re-sign him long-term after June 1 with the savings from letting Hitchens go.

Chiefs will likely make plenty of other transactions that have no real top-51 cap effect to sign guys to 1 year, vet minimum deals with less than 3 accrued seasons.

Cap pre-June 1 approx 3.8 m less draft class (approx 3.2 m) is 0.6 m
Post June-1 approx 8.7 less Mahomes extension effect (approx 3.5 m) is 5.2 m

Draft:

1. DE Jonathan Greenard, Florida (6'3" 265)
- Good overall pass rusher with decent enough size to play 4-3 end. I think going this route is more than probable, especially if the Chiefs address CB or LB in FA. Okafor isn't the answer as the regular starting end and Ogbah played himself into a contract the Chiefs may not be able to afford. The lack of pass rush is a problem at times for KC defensively.
2. OC Jake Hansen, Oregon (6'5" 302)
- Martinas Rankin played well at LG so that spot may be a bit more solidified, but Reid is going to spend an early pick on the interior and I think it will come at the pivot. Hansen does everything pretty well, but he's a better pass blocker than run blocker and he moves well.
3. CB A.J. Green, Oklahoma State (6'1" 190)
- Green is a smooth corner with a good transition and good catch-up acceleration, which allows him to stick to his man. Comes up well in run support. Some think he could go higher than I have him but we shall see where it shakes out with end-of-season slotting.
4. WR Kalija Lipscomb, Vanderbilt (6'1" 200)
- Solid receiver with a terrible QB. Gets open, has a good top-end, and has tremendous hands. Needs to eliminate stutter-step at the beginning of routes to help him get more immediate separation.
4. CB Michael Ojemudia, Iowa (6'1" 200)
- Ojemudia has played quite well for Iowa at times but is a bit inconsistent. Has a tough scholastic workload as a mechanical engineering major. Vocal leader that seems to get better. Plays the ball fairly well and has good closing speed but will need to learn to play true man and press-man a bit better after playing alot of off-man and trailing receivers in college. Needs to get more physical in the run game.
5. TE Harrison Bryant, Florida Atlantic (6'5" 240)
Light TE but has good effort in the run game and pass game. Solid route runner that gets open and has the speed to make plays down the seam. A guy that might take a year or two, but could turn into a steal.

QB: Mahomes, Tannehill, Shurmur
RB: Howard, Williams, Thompson
FB: Lovett
WR: Hill, Hardman, Robinson, Pringle, Lipscomb, Kemp
TE: Kelce, Bryant, Yelder
OL: Fisher, Rankins, Hansen, Duvernay-Tardif, Schwartz, Reiter, Wylie, Allegretti, Barton
DE: Clark, Greenard, Okafor, Kpassagnon, Harris
DT: Jones, Nnadi, Saunders, Speaks
LB: Wilson, Schobert, Kwiatkoski, Niemann, O'Daniel
CB: Mills, Ward, Fenton, Green, Ojemudia
S: Mathieu, Thornhill, Thompson, Watts
ST: Butker, Some UDFA Punter, Winchester

I don't think the Chiefs are getting Tannehill. He's winning the starting job in Tenn at this rate, but you could easily just change that to Mariota.

Solid overall though.

Probably.

I wouldn’t necessarily hate that though either. He could teach the kid how to be a serviceable QB and trade that fool.

You comment about Jones wasn’t anything ground Breaking obviously but it got me to thinking, I like him out there. Since he’s shown the flexibility to do it well, I’m thinking that increased his value to us, despite maybe lowering his production on the big explosive plays.

Plus him not throwing a fit about the money has endeared himself to me.

Am I off base here?

Mariota is exactly the sort of guy you want to spend a little to bring in on something like a 3 year deal behind Pat to rehab and trade.

And I think Chris Jones is going to make this board completely bipolar come the offseason. While I like his ability to generate a pass-rush, his freelancing and assignment breakdowns are a major thorn on how Spagnulo wants to run his system. And his system is super dependent on guys doing their roles as expected vs a werthers Defense of "eh yeah **** it, just do something or something."

I think there's possibility that he brings more value to this team as a trade asset than a long-term asset. While I'm sure posters will line up to shout this down all day and night long on how he's just irreplaceable!!!! I think a tag and trade on Jones is exactly what one of the smarter F.O.'s would do.

I agree with Busby on both fronts. Whether it is Tannehill or Mariota, if whoever the Titans let walk doesn't get interest as a starter, I think you trying to bring one in to rehab and be a premium backup.

As for Jones, I think he's a far greater trade asset at this point in time than he is anything. This defense plays at it's best without him on the inside, which is unfortunate. He has some gap discipline issues that I'm not certain are correctable. He's better as a 3-4 DE for someone. Trade him for the picks. I got harrassed in the other thread on compensation, but if I can get at least a high 2nd (top 40) pick and another day 2 pick with either a player or a 2021 pick, I'm more than fine with that return. I think it's entirely possible a 3-4 team would give that up.

That’s fair. What numbers would you guys be comfortable re-signing him?

If I'm the Chiefs at this point, I think I'm only resigning him if I see signs through the end of the year that he can be effective as a big end ala Calais Campbell and keeping my big interior run stuffers as they are. He can flex down inside on obvious passing downs and put a quicker edge player out there with him. Obviously, I don't reflect that thought here in this mock because I try to not put things just in my perspective all the time. If he is effective out there, then the 4 for 70 I have here is probably my max. If I'm going off Campbell, his contract was 4 for 60. Adjusting that for two years inflation of 7% is 68.7.

What I tried to do in this mock was play around with the thoughts that the Chiefs could re-sign Jones and still do some things. I think they can, but my version relies on KC cutting Hitchens, which is something they may not do. Playing with it did give me some perspective. The players don't all have to be the same, nor the choices on how to go about filling holes. There's enough money there to do what should be done if they choose to do it.

Idc now well Schobert is playing, hell no to that contract

You may want to reference what the top linebackers are getting recently. Schobert is a top 3 LB in the NFL without question or hesitation. If you're not on board with spending that much on a LB, I can get that, but he's going to require that if he hits the market. Littleton will probably cost 12+ per.

I know that’s what they’re getting paid, but I’m not doing it for him. This isn’t Bobby Wagner or Luke Kuechly here. It’s Joe Schobert, who is not an elite player, but a very good one in spots.

Draft someone at that position.

Not elite? The guy I've been watching the past 2 and so far this season is.

Not that stats are the end-all, but let's just compare the 3 guys you listed this season through 11 games.

A. 96 tkl (52 solo) 3 tfl 0 sk 0 qb hit 9 pd 2 int
B. 96 tkl (69 solo) 6 tfl 2 sk 4 qb hit 9 pd 4 int
C. 105 tkl (54 solo) 5 tfl 2 sk 3 qb hit 3 pd 0 int

Tell me which one is which.

Edit: forgetting to mention he's the best coverage linebacker in the game today

I like Schobert wouldn't be upset with that.

I would also be interested in a RB.

I did a scouting report on him this past summer looking at some 2018 games... to me he wasn’t elite. Not in the Wagner/Kuechly tier.

He’s good to very good — with the very good part talking predominantly about zone coverage.

I don't like the idea of replacing one high priced FA linebacker with another and then totally ignoring it in the draft. I think that we would be better to draft a couple of linebackers and sign a lower prices free agent linebacker.

Any interest in signing Brandon Scherff?