Peter King: You have to go back to 1997 to find a draft like this one
 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl.../?sct=uk_wr_a1





You'd probably have to go back to 1997 to find a draft like this one. That's the year Peyton Manning eschewed the prospect of going to the Jets first overall to play for Bill Parcells and returned for his senior year at Tennessee. One quarterback (shaky Jim Druckenmiller, 26th) picked in round one. Two backs (Warrick Dunn 12th and Antowain Smith 23rd) in round one, and four receivers in the first: Ike Hilliard seventh, Yatil Green 15th, Reidel Anthony 16th and Rae Carruth 27th. Yikes! What a horrible draft for point-producers. One star, Dunn, out of seven first-rounders.

That could repeat this year. It's likely Alabama's Eddie Lacy will be the only running back taken in round one. Tennessee's Cordarrelle Patterson leads the muddled pack at wide receiver, but how sure can you really be of junior-college transfers who play one year of major-college football, which is Patterson's profile?

The quarterbacks are a total mish-mosh at this point. One GM interested in acquiring a quarterback this offseason told me over the weekend, "I expect more attention on the quarterbacks throwing this year than on any other single thing at the Combine.'' Some think Geno Smith of West Virginia will go first overall to quarterback-needy Kansas City; one personnel man who studied all the top quarterbacks for a team in need of one last fall told me, "There's not one quarterback, including Smith, I would take in the first round."

Two points about that. If you need a quarterback, you can talk brave in February, but when reality sets in around draft day, and you haven't picked up a quarterback in free agency, all of a sudden the zits on Smith, Matt Barkley and other others don't seem as bad. And we're nine and a half weeks from round one. There's no way that Andy Reid and John Dorsey, the coach and GM for Kansas City, know what they're doing now. They need time to investigate and to watch tape on the eight or 10 quarterbacks.

But in some ways, 2013 should be a catchup year for the other positions. Opening day 2013 could feature 12 starting quarterbacks drafted in 2011 and '12; that's far, far above the norm in a game that values veteran arms at the position.

Now for a couple of notes about players at the Combine.

Alec Ogletree. The underclass inside linebacker from Georgia would be a clear top-10 pick with a clean resume. But he was suspended the first four games of last season for failing an offseason drug test, and then came the news Saturday night, via ProFootballTalk.com, that Ogletree recently was pinched for driving while intoxicated.

Ogletree and agent Pat Dye were smart to come out and beat the police blotter to the punch. As for the damage done by the arrest, Ogletree, who is a speed demon for an inside player, the kind of player who, if right, would be a perfect fit as a rare three-down inside linebacker for any team, has to convince teams they shouldn't be worried about a player who has tested positive, been suspended, and gotten a DWI in the span of about nine months.

Some GM is going to stake his reputation on Ogletree in the first round, most likely. Which GM? It would have to be a secure one. Green Bay's Ted Thompson or de facto GM Bill Belichick of the Patriots or Baltimore's Ozzie Newsome, all down near the bottom of the round.

Manti Te'o. The Notre Dame linebacker has spent a lot of time practicing football and practicing what he's going to say to teams. His last game, against Alabama, was a nightmare (he was awful, and overpowered), and then the whole fake girlfriend story came up, making him a national story and, in some quarters, a national joke. It won't matter much how he works out in Indianapolis. What will matter are the 15-minute interviews he'll have in formal evening sessions with teams, and in less formal settings, seeing coaches and personnel people at the stadium and around his hotel.

No men have more on the line, off the field, at the Scouting Combine than Ogletree and Te'o.

Finally, three players I'll be watching at the Combine, three with question marks and debatable upsides:

1. Quarterback Sean Renfree, Duke. No one's talking about him, but he completed 70 percent of his throws in six of 12 games for David Cutcliffe last fall, was a comeback specialist, and has the pedigree in a good pro-style offense to play early. Could he be more than a late-round flyer, this year's Ryan Lindley? We'll see.

2. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes, Florida State. A 6-2 cornerback in a league demanding cover guys who can play on islands more and more? Scouts want to see if Rhodes, who is a heady player with good bump skills at the line of scrimmage, has the speed to stay with fast wideouts. If so, he'll be a top-half-of-the-first-round player.

3. Running back Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina. After his devastating dislocated knee and torn knee ligaments in October, Lattimore, considered a certain first-rounder before the injury, is still in recovery mode. His surgeon, James Andrews, told Lattimore recently that he's going to shock the world. "I hear he's working out great,'' said Mayock. Lattimore believes he'll be healthy enough to start the 2013 NFL season. Is he's a fourth-round minefield pick? Or might some team desperate for a back go for him a round earlier -- or even late in the second round?



Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl...#ixzz2LLwcLLId

Not a **** is given about Pioli's personal fluffer's draft takes

Peter King 1997 Was The Last Time I Saw My Penis

They don't get it. We'd rather take a QB and whiff than take a tackle at one, let Albert walk, and watch him lead us to no extra wins.

He's got a point. This draft class isn't great by any means. Some of you are just blind.

After Luck, RGIII, and Wilson, every draft is going to look like shit.


**** all of them. If last year's draft never happened, this QB class looks similar to most classes.

Wonder where this came from.

Geno Smiths down fall is he played in a weak division.

Exactly.

What "former" GM does Peter King gargle daily?

You mean the same one that rocketed RG3 up to the number 2 spot in the draft. :rolleyes:

Good point lol.

Not great in terms of can't miss guys, but there is a lot of depth at positions like WR, O-line, D-line, CB, and LB.

Ironic that you didn't say QUARTERBACK draft class.

Because of course, your statement, as-is, is 100% correct.

Leaving us back at TAKING A QB.

I try to tell myself it could be much worse. We could have kept Pioli, let Albert walk, and drafted Joeckel.

Drafting to please fans is a really terrible strategy.

...as it echos through an empty stadium...

Drafting a non-QB just to avoid the risk for 30 years is also a really terrible strategy

:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

It is, but in this case, its justified. There is no bigger team NEED than QB. No other player taken will help the Chiefs increase their win total.

Unforntunately, alot of organizations dont think this way. They would rather go for the "safe" choice like a linemen who will play 10 solid years rather than reach for the stars with a high risk/high reward type of player.

The Chiefs are going to tell us alot about themselves with this draft.

So is running another POS quarterback out there.

You don't make up for past failures by over-reacting today.

I have no idea if Geno Smith is the right QB or not. And neither do the 32 GM's out there today. And neither do the draft talking heads here or in the media.

If the facts of the draft say that no QB is graded in the top 15 players, and you have the option to make a trade for an NFL-experienced QB that you think is worth the pick you'll be trading, you DON'T cave to pressure from fans who are essentially disappointed that this draft class doesn't match our position of need and they long to be like the cool kids who always seem to get the big splash on draft day.

If Reid and Dorsey think that Alex Smith for a #33 or #65 is a better bet for their plans than Geno Smith for the #1, then take Alex Smith. And the Cassel experience should have zero impact on that decision. And fans desire for selecting a #1 overall QB should have none.

Nothing.

Yup.

You have to go all the way back to 2011 to find a draft like this one. Or 2010 before that. Or if you remove those 2 from the equation, 2007.

Or 2006. Or 2005; before Aaron Rodgers was 'Aaron Rodgers'.

This may not be an elite year for QBs, true. But it's no worse than most.

Fans don't show up for draft picks. They show up for wins.

And what makes you think the Chiefs will win games by letting Albert go and drafting Joeckel?

Or taking another DL that doesn't penetrate gaps very well?

Or drafting a passrusher when we already have two Pro Bowlers?

We could always draft Milliner, but then we're ****ing around with reaching on draft value, which is the thing you've been talking about trying to avoid.

Great, another wanderer from DC lecturing us on team building.

Short term thinking. We don't need to fix everything in 1 year. No GM/Coach entering their first draft should be feel pressure to gamble on a QB at #1 that they wouldn't ever take in that slot in a different year, simply because a handful of fans are demanding to take the top QB with the top pick.

There are more options. Some people seem to be writing off all other options for any number of somewhat irrationally looking reasons, IMO.

I have no idea if Alex Smith is going to play better for Andy Reid than Geno Smith. But if Geno's risks are graded to be higher than the draft position we have... in comparison to the draft position we are in and the alternative options we have... then you are making the wrong choice to draft him with the #1 overall pick.

Wrong again. The Cassel experience should ABSOLUTELY have impact on this situation.

You find the BEST QB AVAILABLE in whatever way you can. Trade, free agency, or draft. And you do what it takes to get that QB.

The only reason why you would take Alex Smith over Geno is not because you can get a better price, but ONLY IF he's a better QB than Geno is. And it's apparent from the lack of offers that teams don't believe he IS worth the trade at all, meaning he's probably not the best QB we can get in this offseason.

In 2009 we took the best QB value. It got us a subpar player. We'll be doing the same thing again... compromising value on the QUARTERBACK, THE MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL POSITIONS X100 on the freakin field.

I think the Chiefs will win because Andy Reid has a long history of doing it.

And in particular, he has a long history of finding lesser known QB's that he plugs into his system to significant success. So much so, that he sells them off to the highest bidder. I love that. That plays in our favor.

It also tips the scales toward taking BPA, not QB with our #1. And if that doesn't work out this year, the odds are that in a few years, it will work out.

If AR wants Alex Smith over Geno Smith, then I'd be pretty excited to have Alex Smith playing in this system under this coach.

Now if AR wants Geno Smith over all other options, then I'll be just as excited to have him playing in this system under this coach.

Putting much stock into what fans want is just silly.

Alex Smith isn't winning shit.

The team won't win shit if they don't get a franchise QB, doesn't matter who the coach is. History and percentages are on our side for what we want them to do. Losing and 40 years of failure is what you seem to support.

Peter King is such a douche.

"Oh! I see that people are poo-pooing this QB class! I haven't done any actual research on it myself, but everyone else says it, so it must be true!"

"Oh! I see on pro football reference that the 1997 QB class (in hindsight) was shitty! I will compare these draft classes!"

"Oh! I am insightful!"

ROFL

Andy Reid picked Donovan McNabb #2 overall.

Andy Reid, without Donovan McNabb, has won exactly ZERO playoff games.

You have completely manufactured a narrative of PURE FANTASY.

It's too bad Baltimore "reached" on Flacco. Think of the value they could have had!!!

Taking a 3-4 DE or LT, when the team has a top 10 LT already, are NOT options. Sorry. That's a complete waste of a #1 pick.

The only argument I can accept as rational for #1 other than a QB is trading down.

OK the Sean Renfree bandwagon is loading up and ready to roll.... ALL ABOARD!!!

You speak as if the outcomes are a known fact. They aren't. Not remotely. In fact, you know A LOT more about Alex Smith than Geno Smith. And you knew A LOT more about Matt Cassel than Mark Sanchez.

My view is that you trust the professionals, always. The process they use is far more substantive and informed than the process almost any fan uses.

Talk about it all you want, but the moment the fan starts taking their opinions so seriously that they feel their evaluation process is better than the pros, is the moment they should take a break from things for a while.

process they use is far more substantive and informed than the process almost any fan uses.

JAZ is Pioli

I know. I agree. Andy Reid is a good coach.

You still haven't addressed my point of what the best and most valuable pick we can make at #1 is. Good coaches have to draft well, after all. And they need franchise QBs.

Like I said if he decides to pick Geno Smith #1 overall, that's great. Fan views on the matter mean nothing.

I AM trusting the professionals. The reports are out there that nobody wants or gives a shit about Alex Smith.

I know quite a bit about Geno Smith. I know he's got a chance of being a really really good QB in this league. I and other professionals in the business know that it's an infinitesimally small chance that Alex Smith becomes as good as Geno could possibly be.

That's why teams will spend a first round pick on Geno (hopefully it's the Chiefs who do it). They WON'T be trading a first round pick to the 49ers for Alex Smith. And I doubt a team does it for a 2nd or a 3rd, either.

We (fans) don't have the tools to give the best answer to that. It's hard enough job when you have all of the tools. It's PURE FANTASY to pretend that fans with other jobs can do a better job in the long run, than any pro doing their job using all the tools they have.

I'm not avoiding your question, my answer is that we shouldn't try to (seriously) answer that question. Have fun with the talk, but don't flip out when others disagree... specifically when those others are highly paid professionals.

Yeah.....just completely blow by the fact that you were ****ing wrong.

Shenanigans.

Alex Smith was a fumbling kick returner away from a SB in 2011. When he went down in 2012 he was leading the NFL in passer efficiency and got benched for a guy that was just a hell of a lot more dynamic than Alex. Y'know what? Kaepernick's a hell of a lot more dynamic than Geno is as well.

Give Smith a good team and he can get you to 12 wins. And yes, it's absolutely possible that he could get hot like Flacco and take a team to the SB - he should have in 2011.

I'm getting really tired of people that feel that have to slam Alex Smith to justify Geno Smith. All that does is diminish Geno. Alex Smith would be as good as Trent Green was in KC under Andy Reid, I honestly believe that. Geno has the upside to be the top 10 guy that Alex doesn't, but that doesn't mean Alex is crap.

Nah, I have (a little) more hair than him. :)

Fans with other jobs have the balls to do what's right for the franchise sometimes.

Isn't that what this draft game is all about? Doing what's best for the team, not what will save your job the longest?

please elaborate on this success he's had with QBs not named McNabb....

Pioli was a highly paid professional.

Defer to authority!!!! Remember that in DC land.

Please... AJ Feeley and Kevin Kolb both performed for AR and were traded for high picks (2nd round at least) because the Eagles had the luxury of a better option at QB already.

what's the point of a message board where you're constantly told to "be quiet, you're not a real GM"?

should we just discuss beer (even though we aren't real brewers)?

The process they use is entirely self-serving and born out of a need to subsist in their job more than anything else.

The "process" for fans and GMs alike, is entirely subjective.

Poop threads. Nothing but poop threads. We're all experts in that.

So you're just going to ignore the totally erroneous statement you made and instead focus on one small part of your argument?

This has nothing to do with "authority" it has to do with being an experienced professional who wakes up every day studying game film and conducting interviews with players and coaches and developing game plans and coaching players every day.

both of those QBs suck shit

I would expect more from you. See my last post for why.

Andy Reid is good.

No.

Its funny when people talk about "More options" because what they mean to say is "Alex Smith" since there really isn't any other options.

Matt Flynn is the other name always thrown around. Terrible.

This fanbase has battered QB syndrome.

No matter how many shit QB's they've had, they keep coming back for more. It's like a woman with an abusive boyfriend just asking to get punched in the face again.

I'm not slamming Alex Smith to justify Geno Smith.

I'm slamming Alex Smith because he DESERVES IT.

His brief 20-game stint under Harbaugh is the EXCEPTION for his career, not the rule.

There is zero reason, other than blind faith, to believe he'll recreate 2011-2012 once he's removed from the Harbaugh environment.

I'll bet I've watched more snaps of Geno and Tyler Wilson than Reid has.

I really don't care what you expect from me.

I"m not saying be quiet. I'm saying have fun, but if you start to take your (barely informed) opinions very seriously, you're trying too hard.

Measure outcomes (wins, losses) and don't get too wrapped up in the day to day details even if you follow them passionately like we do here.

It's still possible and rational to want one thing and recognize that if the professionals come to the same conclusion, that doesn't make you a genius and if they professionals disagree it doesn't make them idiots.

yes, at pawning off backup QBs for picks...a desirable trait

and that has nothing to do with issue of drafting a franchise QB, or the fact that Reid's success has come with a QB drafted #2...

or that you take yourself more seriously than anyone on this board, to the point is hilarious...it's obvious you feel neglected in your professional life

and you're a bore

Maybe, but I'm certain that you haven't ever built an NFL offense, or coached an NFL QB. And I'm all but sure that none of those snaps were NFL scouting film with all of the moving parts visible.

So what you watch doesn't have any context.

That you would not appreciate that without having it pointed out... is surprising, honestly. I don't typically think of you as being among the group of fans who take themselves overly seriously.

But as you rightly point out, you don't (and probably shouldn't) care much for what I say. The only thing I know is that I don't know.

Pioli had complete access to every Matt Cassel snap ever and was completely reeruned over him.

Fallacious appeals to authority don't jive.

Nonsense.

First off, his "brief 20 game stint" was actually 26 games in a career that is only 80 games long. In other words, that 'brief stint' was actually the latter 1/3 of his career, which just so happened to coincide with the beginning of his athletic prime.

Beyond that, he put up solid numbers in 2009 and 2010 under Singletary as well. That was coming off a serious shoulder injury and with the most overmatched head coach in football running the show.

Yeah, he had a lousy start to his career. But for 4 consecutive seasons he's improved. His decisionmaking is strong, his accuracy is above average. He's mobile in the pocket and he is a good leader.

If you start from his 2010 baseline, then adjust it for things he has actually learned under Harbaugh, as well as working under a HC that actually knows how to run an offense and can work to his strengths, why is it crazy to think he couldn't improve by about 10% from where he was pre-Harbaugh?

If he does, that puts his passer rating in the high 80s. Again, it's not elite, but yes you can win with that guy. All he's lacking is a cannon of an arm but he does a lot of other things extremely well.

I remain hopeful that this is just a visceral reaction from you that's really just a back-alley defense of Geno Smith. Otherwise you're left with simply talking out your ass. There is ample evidence to suggest that Alex Smith can be a solid QB in this league.

Those players played far better for AR then anywhere else. AJ Feeley won games and put the Eagles into the playoffs.

I'm sure I'm a bore. Deferring to AR on the QB position is a lot less interesting than making a fuss over a college QB that lots of people publicly question. But trusting AR on finding a QB that he can win games with is historically a great bet. Far better bet than anything anyone on here says, over time. That is boring though, I'll admit.

I'm not going to argue for Alex, but I will say is that "brief" 20 months was also his most recent 20 months. Perhaps experience and maturity are a part of his recent success? I would also very much like to believe that the Harbaugh environment isn't much better than the Reid environment when it comes to quarterbacks.

I will agree with you 100% after the Chiefs draft a QB at #1 overall. That's when hardcore professional scouting trumps my hobby.

The issue of taking a QB isn't a matter of scouting. It's a matter of philosophy and principle.

I didn't see you giving John McCain or Mitt Romney a pass. I'm pretty sure you were just fine with saying, "McCain is no different than Bush, which hasn't done very well for the country." You didn't know that. You didn't know what McCain or Romney would be all about and yet you still assumed they would employ the same strategy that you railed against for the last 8 years.

The Chiefs are faced with doing what we've been doing for the past 30 years, not 8. We have the option of going with the strategy that got us into this mess, or we can switch up the strategy and go with something completely different for a bit, and see if that works.

Sorry to inject political dialogue into the main Lounge, but if that's all you understand, then that's the language I'll have to talk.

I agree

MC was a far better bet at the time than the alternative being considered in Mark Sanchez. More certainty, less cost. Looking back, they had the same success. And as a result, Matt Cassel was factually a better investment even looking back.

Smith only played 1 yr in the big 12

Yeah, what about Josh Freeman? ***** failed, hardcore. If he had any idea that Matt Cassel was shitty, he would NEVER have given him 60m.

You are such a shitty homer.

And "looking back" at least Mark Sanchez won playoff games. Matt never came close.

Wrong again, homer.

You are correct.

Matt Cassel also led to the Tyson Jackson pick. Had we used it on a QB, we would have had the #34 pick, which could have been something pretty good. At least it would have been something better than Jackson.

So no. Looking back, the Cassel deal in hindsight was WORSE than drafting Sanchez. Much worse.

Eat cum, asshole

FYI, I haven't posted 50 times in DC in in the last 3 years.

As for scouting, you are just wrong. It's *possible* that the difference between the top 5 QB's is marginal. And if you grade all of them as 2nd round players, then you are a terrible fool if you take one of them over an alternative player who you rate as the #1 overall player when you could get your #4 and #5 QB with your second pick.

Scouting that matters deeply.

I'm not convinced that Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco aren't perfect analogs of each other. Both are guys that struggle with short/intermediate accuracy and have, on occasion, lost their teams. They're both guys that will spend large chunks of the season looking like boiled ass.

But they're both guys that play pretty well in the playoffs. Flacco's always been surrounded by better players and he's probably a little bit better than Sanchez, but it's not night and day. Flacco also hasn't had the pressure of the NY media absolutely hounding him; he's not the ESPN mark that Sanchez has been.

Had the Ravens traded Joe Flacco for the rights to Mark Sanchez, I'm pretty sure both franchises fates would've been exactly the same over the last 4 seasons as they have been in the real world.

So based on the bolded, we shouldn't take a chance on a quarterback in the first, in your opinion. We don't know if Joeckel is going to be worth a shit, either. Nor Star Loutelil(?), or Milliner, or Moore, or *insert name here*.

We should just miss our alotted time to pick every round becasue we just don't know if any of the guys we take will be any good. Just sit back and let the feeding frenzy commence every time we skip a pick.

You sound like 80% of the idiots that call into local radio talk shows in KC, jAZ. It really is like the fans of this team have been programmed to just play it safe and not take chances.

This team needs a quarterback, period. We NEED to have our OWN quarterback. We have now gone through two and a half full decades of trying to win with some other teams' castoffs, and what has it gotten us? Three playoff wins in twenty five years of trying it with "proven vets". If Joe ****ing Montana couldn't put us over the hump, what in the name of all that is holy would make you think Alex Smith can?

This team, right now, is BUILT for a Geno Smith. This kid can come in and make a difference, ESPECIALLY with Andy Reid guiding the way for him.

It's not a back-alley defense of Geno Smith but it absolutely is a visceral reaction.

I've lived through Steve Deberg, Dave Krieg, Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac, and on and on all the way up to Cassel and Quinn.

The thought of bringing in ANOTHER cast-off from another team and hoping for the best just makes me want to puke.

You can sit here and make all the objective, stat-filled arguments you want. 25 years of Chiefs history tells me Alex Smith in KC is destined to fail.