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-   -   Fantasy football sleepers/favorites (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=339128)

Dunerdr 07-21-2021 04:40 AM

Fantasy football sleepers/favorites
 
I always like to get some ideas from outside the "experts". What is your number 1 for each posistion and a later round value pick?

ex:
QB: Favorite- Mahomes Value- Burrow (injury bounce back)
RB: Favorite-CMC Value- Antonio gibson
Wr: Tyreek Hill Value Sleeper: Pittman Jr. (IND)
TE: Kelz Value: Logan Thomas


And maybe some players you just absolutely want to stay away from no matter what... for me T.Y. Hilton unless hes available at the end of the draft, but he wont be just because hes still "a name".

tyecopeland 07-21-2021 08:38 AM

Qb: mahomes; then there's so many deeper options. Herbert (probably top 10 so maybe not late enough), stafford, lawrence

Rb: cook; then CEH or even later Hunt

Wr: adams (if rodgers plays for gb) or diggs if he doesnt; then lamb or chase.

Te: kelce; then gesicki

I avoid Henry every year. And all of the bucs. Not because they beat the Chiefs but because they are too inconsistent from week to week.

Kellerfox 07-21-2021 09:09 AM

Note: I've been doing a lot of best ball drafts, so my current responses are a bit slanted towards that format.

WR - Russell Gage (ATL) is the ultimate sleeper right now and way undervalued at his ADP on most platforms. Last year he had multiple games over 15 points... Boom or bust type player, but he should have the same opportunity this year with Julio gone.

WR - Cooks (Hou) is going to get a lot of targets regardless of who is the Texans QB. I'd guess 130+ barring injuries. They have no one else at WR/TE worth a damn. Everyone is avoiding the Texans like the plague due to Watson’s uncertainty, but Cooks ADP is 4-5+ rounds lower than I expect his final scoring to be. I think he finishes top 10 for WR in all formats.

WR - Mike Williams (LAC). I know I know, everyone is always high on the chargers in the off season. Williams is clearly the #2 WR in a high octane offense that no longer has Hunter Henry. Williams should get a few more targets and TDs this year. His ADP is way under valued for what he is IMO.

QB - Cam Newton was a similar boom or bust player to Gage last year. He was third only to Mahomes and Allen in boom games, but had even more bust games. Does year 2 under BB bring more consistency? Even if not, Newton could be a great late round sleeper to pair with an elite QB in a larger league.

Staying away from - I'm not touching the Buccs (RB or WR), Eagles (QB, WR, RB), Giants (QB, WR, RB), Jags (RB or WR), 49ers (RB), or Bengals (WR).

Some of those I'm avoiding will have great FF production... I'm just not willing to gamble on picking the right player (ex: Bengals WRs / Buccs RB).

tyecopeland 07-21-2021 12:31 PM

Never done best ball. Really fuzzy on the details. Is that the one where you don't set a starting lineup?

Kellerfox 07-21-2021 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tyecopeland (Post 15749419)
Never done best balk. Really fuzzy on the details. Is that the one where you don't set a starting lineup?

This is my first year doing it too. Yahoo has a decent system for public 10-person leagues (free or cash) that slots you in with strangers. Sleeper does too… but it’s harder to find leagues. On Yahoo, I can join a free public league and usually be drafting within 10-15 minutes.

For Yahoo’s public leagues the format is QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, and then 9 bench slots (no defense or kicker). Once you draft, you’re done for the season (minus checking results). At the end of every week, Yahoo will automatically adjust your roster to arrive at the highest scoring combination. It’s a point based matchup system (rather than head-to-head) so whomever scores the most cumulative points with their best starting rosters throughout the season wins. I don’t think there are playoffs, but I may be wrong. No waivers, trades, or IR… who you draft is who you are stuck with.

It’s perfect for those who like drafting but hate managing. It’s basically draft and forget.

Strategy wise it’s a bit different from regular fantasy:
  • A balanced roster will be 2-3 QB, 4-6 RB, 5-8 WR, and 2-3 TE
  • You have to think hard about you build out your roster balancing talent and depth. For example, if I draft Mahomes early I probably can’t afford to draft another QB until the last rounds… otherwise another position will suffer. Similarly, if I take an elite QB, I probably can’t only afford to draft 2 QBs total or another position will hurt. Vice versa, if I don’t take my first QB until late (say someone like Mayfield), I probably want to grab 2 more QBs to increase the likelihood of having any one QB put up big points that week. There seems to always be one position that you have to risk going thin on your depth.
  • Because of the above, elite QBs and TEs are maybe less valuable than standard fantasy because you can platoon the position with 3 mediocre Players. If you miss out on Kelce/Kittle/Waller… odds are that a team of Higbee, Tongan, and Irv Smith Jr. can still provide a single high score each week. Similarly… Mayfield, Carr, and Newton likely can collectively produce one QB that matches Mahomes on a weekly basis.
  • Boom or Bust players are actually more valuable since they will automatically start in their boom weeks, but ride the bench in their bust weeks. Makes a guy like Mecole Hardman potentially more desirable than someone like Davonte Parker who is consistent but never booms. If you have a bench full of players who could Boom you’ll likely hit on a few each week.
  • Being a rookie I may be dumb… but I think teams that don’t get at least 3 RB in the first 4-5 rounds are setting themselves up for failure. The cliff/drop off is huge after that point… and you need at least 1 starting caliber backup who can sub in if injury happens while also being your flex when healthy. Season long, something like Chubb-Ekler-CEH-Gaskin is probably going to win over something like Cook-N.Harris-Dillon-Mattison-Pollard regardless of what the rest of the roster looks like.

Dunerdr 07-22-2021 03:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kellerfox (Post 15749518)
This is my first year doing it too. Yahoo has a decent system for public 10-person leagues (free or cash) that slots you in with strangers. Sleeper does too… but it’s harder to find leagues. On Yahoo, I can join a free public league and usually be drafting within 10-15 minutes.

For Yahoo’s public leagues the format is QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, and then 9 bench slots (no defense or kicker). Once you draft, you’re done for the season (minus checking results). At the end of every week, Yahoo will automatically adjust your roster to arrive at the highest scoring combination. It’s a point based matchup system (rather than head-to-head) so whomever scores the most cumulative points with their best starting rosters throughout the season wins. I don’t think there are playoffs, but I may be wrong. No waivers, trades, or IR… who you draft is who you are stuck with.

It’s perfect for those who like drafting but hate managing. It’s basically draft and forget.

Strategy wise it’s a bit different from regular fantasy:
  • A balanced roster will be 2-3 QB, 4-6 RB, 5-8 WR, and 2-3 TE
  • You have to think hard about you build out your roster balancing talent and depth. For example, if I draft Mahomes early I probably can’t afford to draft another QB until the last rounds… otherwise another position will suffer. Similarly, if I take an elite QB, I probably can’t only afford to draft 2 QBs total or another position will hurt. Vice versa, if I don’t take my first QB until late (say someone like Mayfield), I probably want to grab 2 more QBs to increase the likelihood of having any one QB put up big points that week. There seems to always be one position that you have to risk going thin on your depth.
  • Because of the above, elite QBs and TEs are maybe less valuable than standard fantasy because you can platoon the position with 3 mediocre Players. If you miss out on Kelce/Kittle/Waller… odds are that a team of Higbee, Tongan, and Irv Smith Jr. can still provide a single high score each week. Similarly… Mayfield, Carr, and Newton likely can collectively produce one QB that matches Mahomes on a weekly basis.
  • Boom or Bust players are actually more valuable since they will automatically start in their boom weeks, but ride the bench in their bust weeks. Makes a guy like Mecole Hardman potentially more desirable than someone like Davonte Parker who is consistent but never booms. If you have a bench full of players who could Boom you’ll likely hit on a few each week.
  • Being a rookie I may be dumb… but I think teams that don’t get at least 3 RB in the first 4-5 rounds are setting themselves up for failure. The cliff/drop off is huge after that point… and you need at least 1 starting caliber backup who can sub in if injury happens while also being your flex when healthy. Season long, something like Chubb-Ekler-CEH-Gaskin is probably going to win over something like Cook-N.Harris-Dillon-Mattison-Pollard regardless of what the rest of the roster looks like.

It sound fun, but it sounds like something that i would sign up for 50 of just to perfect my drafting lol.

tyecopeland 07-22-2021 08:28 AM

I'd hate having no ability to pick people up off waivers

Dunerdr 07-22-2021 08:28 PM

Working on my fantasy list. I need to divide the nfl lists into position
groups.

tyecopeland 07-22-2021 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunerdr (Post 15751347)
Working on my fantasy list. I need to divide the nfl lists into position
groups.

Just make sure you take cam Akers in the first round in each of your drafts and you'll be fine.

Dunerdr 07-22-2021 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tyecopeland (Post 15751378)
Just make sure you take cam Akers in the first round in each of your drafts and you'll be fine.

Akers is my round 1 and Le'Veon Bell is my round 2 lock!

Dunerdr 07-22-2021 08:59 PM

I'm iffy on Stafford. Any thoughts?

Kellerfox 07-22-2021 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunerdr (Post 15751394)
I'm iffy on Stafford. Any thoughts?

There are a lot of QBs I am comfortable with this year. I’ve generally been taking whatever’s left of the middle tier in mocks. Im a buyer on Stafford if he’s the guy who makes it to me. I think the reasons for optimism generally offset the questions.

2021 Pros:
  • Best coach of his career who is known as an innovative play caller that brings out the best in his personel
  • Best OL of his career
  • Kupp, Woods, Higbee, and Jackson/Jefferson is probably the best cumulative WR/TE depth he’s had in his career (though id argue Megatron single handily > the Rams group)
  • Akers going down likely means a few more passing attempts each game
  • Over the last decade has had one of the best QB fantasy floors (pretty consistent at 15+ points a game… few off nights)
  • High IQ (on and off the field)
  • Veteran - should learn new playbook quick

2021 Cons:
  • Hes been in the league 12 years. We know who/what he is. He isn’t going to drastically become a better QB at this stage.
  • New team/system can be a challenge
  • Will be playing home games outside - loses the “indoor” statistic boost (iirc that equates to about 5% for QBs)
  • Rarely booms despite his consistency. Has been in the bottom 1/3rd for 20+ Fantasy point games each of the last 3 years and bottom 1/4 for 25+ point games.
  • For his age - he’s taken a lot of sacks
  • Rams have an elite defense… probably won’t be playing from behind or in many shootouts
  • New contract could mean less motivated

Dunerdr 07-22-2021 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kellerfox (Post 15751475)
There are a lot of QBs I am comfortable with this year. I’ve generally been taking whatever’s left of the middle tier in mocks. Im a buyer on Stafford if he’s the guy who makes it to me. I think the reasons for optimism generally offset the questions.

2021 Pros:
  • Best coach of his career who is known as an innovative play caller that brings out the best in his personel
  • Best OL of his career
  • Kupp, Woods, Higbee, and Jackson/Jefferson is probably the best cumulative WR/TE depth he’s had in his career (though id argue Megatron single handily > the Rams group)
  • Akers going down likely means a few more passing attempts each game
  • Over the last decade has had one of the best QB fantasy floors (pretty consistent at 15+ points a game… few off nights)
  • High IQ (on and off the field)
  • Veteran - should learn new playbook quick

2021 Cons:
  • Hes been in the league 12 years. We know who/what he is. He isn’t going to drastically become a better QB at this stage.
  • New team/system can be a challenge
  • Will be playing home games outside - loses the “indoor” statistic boost (iirc that equates to about 5% for QBs)
  • Rarely booms despite his consistency. Has been in the bottom 1/3rd for 20+ Fantasy point games each of the last 3 years and bottom 1/4 for 25+ point games.
  • For his age - he’s taken a lot of sacks
  • Rams have an elite defense… probably won’t be playing from behind or in many shootouts
  • New contract could mean less motivated

I've always liked stafford as a ff qb, but i've seen him billed as a top 3 ff qb lately. I think like normal if hes a middle round guy he would be great, but i saw an article that a coworker had up billing him as a late round 2 guy in 10-12 team leagues. No way.

CatfishBob2 07-24-2021 12:02 PM

QB: Favorite- Mahomes Value- Burrow
RB: Favorite-CMC Value- David Montgomery
Wr: Tyreek Hill Value Sleeper: Mecole
TE: Kelz Value: Jarwin (Dal)

My plan this year is to Go Tyreek 1 and end up with CEH/Montgomery and Burrow at QB. Montgomery is probably going to go after the 3rd rd at best, but I think he has 1st rd potential

Dunerdr 07-26-2021 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CatfishBob2 (Post 15753424)
QB: Favorite- Mahomes Value- Burrow
RB: Favorite-CMC Value- David Montgomery
Wr: Tyreek Hill Value Sleeper: Mecole
TE: Kelz Value: Jarwin (Dal)

My plan this year is to Go Tyreek 1 and end up with CEH/Montgomery and Burrow at QB. Montgomery is probably going to go after the 3rd rd at best, but I think he has 1st rd potential

I do like Jarwin and Burrow for value. But i still think Burrow will go higher than i expect.


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