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duncan_idaho 12-11-2012 09:59 AM

2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread
 
Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

dpg4zombie 12-11-2012 10:01 AM

Let's do this thing.

Pablo 12-11-2012 10:05 AM

In.

duncan_idaho 12-11-2012 10:06 AM

As promised, here's news that's guaranteed to put the Wil Myers trade in some interesting perspective (or at least it did for me). I present to you... a comparison of seasons that led to the player being named minor league player of the year.

STAT PLAYER A MYERS
Average: .319 .314
HR: 27 37
** (Player A has higher power grade. Myers has more HR-friendly park)**
SLG: .587 .600
OBP: .375 .387
Ks: 135 140
K rate: 25.9% 26.8%

Who is player A? He looks an awful lot like Wil Myers, doesn't he?

Canofbier 12-11-2012 10:06 AM

go royils

ChiTown 12-11-2012 10:06 AM

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8AtG5qOdr5...+moore+sad.jpg

Ceej 12-11-2012 10:08 AM

HELL YES, BITCHES.






...I'm still mildly depressed.

ChiTown 12-11-2012 10:08 AM

How much is mah payroll?
 
http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/D...StUX4u8Sbm.jpg

Canofbier 12-11-2012 10:08 AM

For real though, I'm pretty exited. This season is the point where we either sink or swim. Looking forward to seeing which!

CaliforniaChief 12-11-2012 10:10 AM

Let's do this.

Codered 12-11-2012 10:11 AM

I don't know if I "like" the trade, but I've accepted it and moved on. James Shields is the best pitcher we have had outside of Zach Grienke in a long time. If Guthrie can continue to pitch above average and the other spots at least show up better then the garbage in the past then I think we will hit enough to atleast contend.

Before Shields even with Will Myers I wouldn't have been able to say that. However, I still can't shake the feeling that this is the Royals and everything we touch goes bad for us.

kc rush 12-11-2012 10:11 AM

The trade is what it is, lets see how this all works out.

Reaper16 12-11-2012 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 9199419)
As promised, here's news that's guaranteed to put the Wil Myers trade in some interesting perspective (or at least it did for me). I present to you... a comparison of seasons that led to the player being named minor league player of the year.

STAT PLAYER A MYERS
Average: .319 .314
HR: 27 37
** (Player A has higher power grade. Myers has more HR-friendly park)**
SLG: .587 .600
OBP: .375 .387
Ks: 135 140
K rate: 25.9% 26.8%

Who is player A? He looks an awful lot like Wil Myers, doesn't he?

I don't know, but I'm guessing its either Delmon Young or Alex Gordon.

ChiTown 12-11-2012 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Codered (Post 9199436)
I don't know if I "like" the trade, but I've accepted it and moved on. James Shields is the best pitcher we have had outside of Zach Grienke in a long time. If Guthrie can continue to pitch above average and the other spots at least show up better then the garbage in the past then I think we will hit enough to atleast contend.

Before Shields even with Will Myers I wouldn't have been able to say that. However, I still can't shake the feeling that this is the Royals and everything we touch goes bad for us.

Yep, I'm definitely in the acceptance phase of that deal. I'm just miffed that we have NO ONE worth a shit to play RF, unless Dyson enters the everyday lineup in CF and pushes Cain to RF.

jbwm89 12-11-2012 10:14 AM

Well done Duncan

CaliforniaChief 12-11-2012 10:17 AM

Sunday night, I was pretty pissed. No, really pissed. But the more it settles, the more I like it for the following reasons:

1. Pitching is king in baseball. Bottom line. Without good starting pitching, you can't go anywhere as a team. Particularly in the playoffs, teams with pitching always prevail. Think about our 1985 team. Think about the Giants this year. Wasn't Gregor Blanco playing in the outfield? Pitching.

2. Shields is a baller, and he wants to be here. I'll LOVE it if we can extend his contract, but he seems happy to be in KC and ready to embrace the challenge of being a #1. And could it be that KC isn't viewed as a wasteland it used to be?

3. We still have a really good farm system. It isn't like we leveraged the whole thing to get Shields/Davis.

4. We're spending money. Not sure it's all being spent wisely, but that's on DM. At least we're spending.

Chief_For_Life58 12-11-2012 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiTown (Post 9199445)
Yep, I'm definitely in the acceptance phase of that deal. I'm just miffed that we have NO ONE worth a shit to play RF, unless Dyson enters the everyday lineup in CF and pushes Cain to RF.

we really need lorenzo to step up and not be an injured little bitch the whole year

KC_Connection 12-11-2012 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 9199419)
As promised, here's news that's guaranteed to put the Wil Myers trade in some interesting perspective (or at least it did for me). I present to you... a comparison of seasons that led to the player being named minor league player of the year.

STAT PLAYER A MYERS
Average: .319 .314
HR: 27 37
** (Player A has higher power grade. Myers has more HR-friendly park)**
SLG: .587 .600
OBP: .375 .387
Ks: 135 140
K rate: 25.9% 26.8%

Who is player A? He looks an awful lot like Wil Myers, doesn't he?

I'll guess Jay Bruce. Travis Snider's minor league line would have been pretty close to that too, but you said MILB player of the year.

siberian khatru 12-11-2012 10:22 AM

I've decided the trade bothers me less than some of the reasons that led to it.

For instance, I'm far more pissed that we waste money tendering Luke Hochevar a $4+ million contract, or sign Yuni Betancourt (and then release him, not because he's godawful, but only because he "wasn't accepting his utility role"), or play Jeff Francoeur into the ground despite the fact he's the worst player in baseball.

If David Glass insists on low payrolls, then Dayton Moore isn't the guy who's getting the most bang for the buck.

So I'd be more comfortable trading a chip like Myers in a "go for it" move if I had more confidence that Moore wouldn't undermine it by embracing shit players and overpaying them.

Toadkiller 12-11-2012 10:24 AM

Damn it. One more year, that is all I am giving them, ok maybe two but that is it..

Been a long time since I was in the stands at the K watching a world series.

Chief_For_Life58 12-11-2012 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 9199419)
As promised, here's news that's guaranteed to put the Wil Myers trade in some interesting perspective (or at least it did for me). I present to you... a comparison of seasons that led to the player being named minor league player of the year.

STAT PLAYER A MYERS
Average: .319 .314
HR: 27 37
** (Player A has higher power grade. Myers has more HR-friendly park)**
SLG: .587 .600
OBP: .375 .387
Ks: 135 140
K rate: 25.9% 26.8%

Who is player A? He looks an awful lot like Wil Myers, doesn't he?

im gonna guess gordon or delmon young

siberian khatru 12-11-2012 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC_Connection (Post 9199464)
I'll guess Jay Bruce.

Even if it's not, that's the guy I've thought Myers might be ... maybe more toward his floor. If Ryan Braun is his ceiling, Bruce is the floor (although a lot of Bruce's value comes from playing in Great American).

CaliforniaChief 12-11-2012 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 9199419)
As promised, here's news that's guaranteed to put the Wil Myers trade in some interesting perspective (or at least it did for me). I present to you... a comparison of seasons that led to the player being named minor league player of the year.

STAT PLAYER A MYERS
Average: .319 .314
HR: 27 37
** (Player A has higher power grade. Myers has more HR-friendly park)**
SLG: .587 .600
OBP: .375 .387
Ks: 135 140
K rate: 25.9% 26.8%

Who is player A? He looks an awful lot like Wil Myers, doesn't he?

http://www.kcroyalshistory.com/images/howarddavid.jpg

siberian khatru 12-11-2012 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief (Post 9199480)

Yes, the man we protected in the expansion draft over Jeff Conine.

ChiTown 12-11-2012 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief (Post 9199480)

I had no idea David Howard had the AIDS......

Prison Bitch 12-11-2012 10:32 AM

I don't know who that is, except it's not Gordon. What's the point? Myers is 21 and he had that season. He's a real high likelihood to be good. I love how people cherry-pick the few busts here and there and act like Myers has an equal parts chance of bust vs. success. He doesn't. The odds are HEAVILY IN FAVOR of him being good for Tampa.


Whoever posted the Kila stats on that last thread to make this same point, needs to be slapped too.

duncan_idaho 12-11-2012 10:32 AM

KC Connection hits on the head: Player A is Jay Bruce.

I was looking at the list of BA POTY over the past 20 years, and trying to break them into categories (Superstar/First division/injury bust/bust/too early to tell) and Jay Bruce was one that was hard to slot.

So I looked at his minor league numbers the year he was named POTY, and was shocked at the similarities.

If I were forced to lay a bet on it, I'd guess Myers' major league numbers look a LOT like Bruce's - except with a few less HRs (playing in the Trop for 81 games vs. playing in that bandbox in Cincinnati).

I started asking myself... If I were a Reds fan, and Cincy had traded Bruce for two years of (INSERT SOMEONE SIMILAR TO JAMES SHIELDS) before the 2008 season, how would I feel about it now (assuming that guy pitched well for my team).

Took me all the way into acceptance mode.

duncan_idaho 12-11-2012 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 9199503)
I don't know who that is, except it's not Gordon. What's the point? Myers is 21 and he had that season. He's a real high likelihood to be good. I love how people cherry-pick the few busts here and there and act like Myers has an equal parts chance of bust vs. success. He doesn't. The odds are HEAVILY IN FAVOR of him being good for Tampa.


Whoever posted the Kila stats on that last thread to make this same point, needs to be slapped too.

And Jay Bruce - player A - was 20 when he had that season. He did it across three levels rather than two, but they spent similar time in AAA.

My point: There's a strong indicator that Myers is going to be a very good MLB RF. Probably about the same as Jay Bruce.

Puts a little different - and lower - perspective on Wil Myers' value than I had three days ago, when he was still on my team and I didn't want to analyze these flaws that deeply.

Not trying to say Myers is going to be a bust at all. Just that he's more likely to be Jay Bruce than Ryan Braun (which is what we all were hoping for).

Mr. Flopnuts 12-11-2012 10:42 AM

This is the year I get back into baseball, and I'm all in on the Royals. What else do I have to cheer for these days?

CaliforniaChief 12-11-2012 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts (Post 9199535)
This is the year I get back into baseball, and I'm all in on the Royals. What else do I have to cheer for these days?

Awesome, dude! Welcome to our crew.

Strongside 12-11-2012 10:45 AM

This is the first year that I can remember (born in '85) that I'm actually PUMPED going in. I've been skeptical the past few seasons...but this year, I'm all about these guys.

siberian khatru 12-11-2012 10:45 AM

I used to joke about this, now it has finally happened:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...y-taveras.html

Don't we already have Willy Taveras on the roster -- Jarrod Dyson?

Dayton loves him some 1970s-style CFs. I bet he's tried to coax Omar Moreno out of retirement (although as Bill James once wrote, guys like Moreno don't "retire").

How about find the money to sign Michael Bourn? Put Bourn in center, Cain in RF. :D

Mr. Flopnuts 12-11-2012 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief (Post 9199539)
Awesome, dude! Welcome to our crew.

Always been a fan, just secondary to the Mariners. I live in MO again, there is no reason for me not to align my sporting interests with KC. And yes, I did say sporting. ;)

Fansy the Famous Bard 12-11-2012 11:02 AM

They're still shitty.

kcfanXIII 12-11-2012 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 9199403)

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?
2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
5) Who regresses?
6) Who plays 2B?
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?

my "answers" to the questions as of 12/11/2012. can't wait until july, so i can look back and laugh at how optimistic i am right now.

1. i hope so. it will be better than 2012, but i'm not going to act like i know enough about any of the new guys to say they will be good enough to make a run at the division.

2. hoch will lose his spot in the rotation before opening day. i think if he pitches well enough in relief, he's gone at the deadline.

3. i think hosmer bounces back, and starts playing consistently better baseball all the way around. he's too good of a player to have not worked his ass off this offseason.

4. moose tacos falls in the same category as hosmer. these guys want to win, and have the talent to win, so it all comes down to drive and desire. anybody questioning that about either of these two?

5. i'm not sure who will regress, but i find it hard to believe cain and perez continue to rip the ball the way they did when healthy in 2012. that being said, i'm still excited about them. i think that even with a drop off in production they are still pretty exciting to watch.

6. i think a better question is can getz stay healthy. could we upgrade? sure, but we could do a lot worse.

7. i don't think frenchy bounces back. there i said it. i think he'll continue to hit at that just below .250 mark. for a right fielder who isn't a power guy, that will not do.

8. i'm a homer, and optimistic. yes. i think moore is here well beyond 2014, especially if this shields gamble pays off.

9. i sure hope duffy comes back to form. i like his attitude, and his personality. really impressed me when he was tweeting like a fan after his injury last season. i like his "want to be in kc" attitude, even though i don't get why anyone would have it.

10. dayton has addressed the biggest hole on this team from last year. he's done enough to get me excited for royals baseball, again. its december, the chiefs suck, and i want to put my homer glasses on now, so hell yes they've done enough to compete. who wants tiger meat for dinner?

Mr. Flopnuts 12-11-2012 11:29 AM

#tigerblood

TLO 12-11-2012 11:30 AM

In for a division championship!

AndChiefs 12-11-2012 11:39 AM

I'm sure I'll watch a lot of the games as usual but probably won't post much in here.

Nightfyre 12-11-2012 11:48 AM

Hoooray.

Priest31kc 12-11-2012 11:56 AM

Bob Dutton ‏@Royals_Report

#Royals sign LHP George Sherrill and RHP Dan Wheeler to minor-league deals in addition to OF Willy Taveras.

Priest31kc 12-11-2012 11:57 AM

Jim Duquette ‏@Jim_Duquette

I was just told by a top major league exec that The #Tigers were heavily involved in discussions for Shields before #Royals landed him.

mr. tegu 12-11-2012 12:02 PM

I am excited for this season. Like many the anger from the trade has settled and I have come to accept it and dare I say approve of it.

duncan_idaho 12-11-2012 12:04 PM

Side note on Shields:

I was looking at his PitchFx data to try and quantify the claims that he changed his approach after 2010. The difference was pretty astounding. He has always been a fastball/change heavy pitcher, but...

From 2010 to 2011/12, Shields drastically reduces the use of his two-seam fastball and cutter by about 60 percent while ramping up his curve and slider. As a result, his harder offerings - which got blistered in 2010 - become more effective.

It's not unusual for a guy around 30 to change his approach, but that's pretty drastic.

Oh, and his average fastball velocity has actually ticked up since he changed this approach. So even though he just turned 31, that's trending positively (unusual for pitchers this age).

ROYC75 12-11-2012 12:09 PM

This guy thinks the trade was crap, here's his take .........

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...de-aint-pretty


A Royal Blunder
Why it made no sense for the Kansas City Royals to trade star prospect Wil Myers
By Rany Jazayerli on December 10, 2012

Dayton Moore, the general manager of the Kansas City Royals, has been far from perfect at his job. He has made bad trades (Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez), he has made terrible free-agent signings ($36 million for Jose Guillen), and he has signed Jeff Francoeur not once, but twice.

But two years ago, he was able to deliver something to Royals fans that they hadn't felt for a quarter-century: hope. After the 2010 season, the Royals had fashioned the greatest farm system in baseball, the greatest anyone had seen in years. People were talking about the Royals, and not as a punchline. After 25 years without so much as a pennant race, fans of the team could realistically dream about the playoffs — not just a fluky, 2012-Orioles-style appearance, but a legitimate mini-dynasty atop the weak AL Central.

Last night, that dream was ripped apart like a cheap piñata. Frustrated by the inability to develop a starting rotation to pair with the team's young, talented offense, Moore traded Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year, right fielder Wil Myers, and three other solid prospects to the Tampa Bay Rays for James Shields and Wade Davis.

The Royals got a terrific starting pitcher in Shields, and Davis was a solid back-end starter for the Rays in 2010 and 2011 before they moved him to the bullpen in 2012, where he excelled. But Kansas City gave up an astonishing amount of talent, rivaling the Atlanta Braves' regrettable payment for Mark Teixeira1 in 2007 as the largest collection of prospects traded in the past decade.

This is a terrible trade for the Royals, deeply flawed in both its theory and execution, and while it might make the Royals marginally more likely to make the playoffs in 2013, it does irreparable damage to their chances of building a perennial winner.

Let's start here: Wil Myers is not a good prospect. He is not a very good prospect. He is one of the best prospects in baseball, almost certain to be among the top five of every prospect list that is published this offseason. Good prospects fail all the time. Very good prospects fail more often than not. But the very best prospects — especially hitting prospects, whose risk of injury is dramatically lower than their counterparts on the mound — turn into above-average regulars, if not stars, well over 50 percent of the time.

Myers, as mentioned, was named Minor League Player of the Year. In the past 20 years, 14 position players won the same award. Here are their names:

1992: Tim Salmon
1993: Manny Ramirez
1994: Derek Jeter
1995: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1997: Paul Konerko
1998: Eric Chavez
2002: Rocco Baldelli
2003: Joe Mauer
2005: Delmon Young
2006: Alex Gordon
2007: Jay Bruce
2008: Matt Wieters
2009: Jason Heyward
2011: Mike Trout

Yes, Delmon Young was once the Minor League Player of the Year, and if you want to spin this trade for the Royals, you can bring up Young's name as a cautionary tale. And after a promising start to his career, Rocco Baldelli was ravaged by injuries and his career ended at age 28. But every other player on that list has gone on to become a well-above-average player at his position. Most of them became stars. At least a few will go into the Hall of Fame.

Based on the list above, Wil Myers has about an 86 percent chance of becoming a true impact player in the major leagues. Yes, that's based on a small sample size, but that's just the point: Myers is a special player, and there are precious few players that you can compare him to. In 2012, he hit .314/.387/.600 between Double-A and Triple-A while playing the entire season at age 21. He hit 37 home runs, the most by any 21-year-old in the high minors (Double-A and Triple-A) since 1963.

Myers wasn't just one of the best prospects in baseball. He also perfectly fit the one glaring hole in the Royals lineup. The fantastic farm system from two years ago has already supplied the Royals with young talent at first base (Eric Hosmer), third base (Mike Moustakas), and catcher (Salvador Perez) to go along with earlier farm system products in left field (Alex Gordon) and at DH (Billy Butler). The Zack Greinke trade brought in starters at shortstop (Alcides Escobar) and center field (Lorenzo Cain).

But in right field, the Royals committed to Jeff Francoeur, who in 2012 was arguably the worst everyday player in the major leagues. (This continues a long tradition of a Commitment to Execrableness in Kansas City. Yuniesky Betancourt would have once again contended for the worst everyday player honor had he played more.) Francoeur hit .235/.287/.378, which would be atrocious for a shortstop, and despite his cannon arm in right field, he had such poor range that defensive metrics estimate he cost the Royals about 10 runs on defense.

Instead of replacing Francoeur with Myers in 2013, a switch that would be worth around four wins, they're stuck with the game's worst right fielder for another season. The downgrade from Myers to Francoeur is almost enough to cancel out the benefit from acquiring Shields.

Shields is an excellent pitcher who has thrown more innings over the past two seasons than anyone except Justin Verlander. But he's not an ace, and if you're going to give up a prospect as good as Wil Myers, you need to get an ace.

Shields has a 3.89 career ERA, and a 3.15 ERA over the past two years. (Mind you, three years ago he had a 5.18 ERA and led the AL in hits, earned runs, and home runs allowed.) But here's the thing: In Tampa Bay, he played in one of the best pitchers' parks in baseball, in front of one of the best defenses in baseball, for one of the best managers in baseball. He brings none of those things with him to Kansas City.

Ballpark? For his career, Shields has a 3.33 ERA when pitching at Tropicana Field. When pitching anywhere else, he has a 4.54 ERA.

Defense? By defensive efficiency — a measure of what percentage of the time a defense turns a ball in play into an out — the Rays have had the best or second-best defense in the major leagues for each of the past three years. By comparison, over the past three seasons the Royals have ranked 28th, 24th, and 26th in defensive efficiency.

Manager? Joe Maddon's record speaks for itself.

These factors are intertwined to some extent; one thing that makes Maddon great is that he's so aggressive about using defensive shifts, which improves the team's defensive efficiency, as does the ballpark. Overall, it's fair to say that Shields is a good pitcher who was put in position to look like a very good pitcher.

In terms of pure baseball value, Shields has the edge in 2013. But of course, the Royals and Rays didn't trade players — they traded contracts, and the difference between the two is staggering. The Rays have control of Myers for at least the next six years — and given their knack for signing star players to long-term deals as soon as they reach the majors (Evan Longoria, Matt Moore), it wouldn't be a surprise if they soon have Myers under club control into the next decade. The Royals have control of James Shields for two years.

Myers will be making the major league minimum, more or less, for the next three years. Shields will get paid $10.5 million in 2013, and the Royals have an option for him at $12 million in 2014.

That's the most inexplicable part of this trade — that a team that plays in a tiny market, whose owner has a history of (to be kind) penuriousness, and who has already indicated that they've reached their payroll cap, would trade a potential star making minimum wage for a pitcher who earns eight figures in each of the next two seasons. You can't simply evaluate this trade by comparing Myers to Shields — you have to compare what the Royals could have done with Myers and all that money they're going to spend on Shields. For $22 million over the next two seasons, the Royals could sign Shaun Marcum. They could come close to signing Edwin Jackson. Hell, Brandon McCarthy, who can't stay healthy but who has a 3.29 ERA over the past two years, just signed with the Diamondbacks for two years and $15.5 million.

James Shields makes the Royals' rotation much better in 2013. But so would a lot of pitchers who would have signed for the money Kansas City is committing to him. The difference between Shields and any of those pitchers amounts to one more win in 2013, two at the most. And all they would have cost is money — not one of the best prospects in baseball.

Wade Davis, the other pitcher the Royals acquired, may also help their rotation in 2013, which says more about the state of their rotation than about him. Davis was a marginal starter for Tampa Bay in 2010 and 2011, primarily because he couldn't put batters away. He struck out only 5.6 batters per nine innings, well below average. The Rays had the depth in their rotation to move Davis to the bullpen for 2012, and there he improved dramatically — his fastball velocity jumped from 91.8 mph to 93.7 mph, his slider was sharper, and his strikeout rate literally doubled to 11.1 per nine innings.

Davis can be a dominant reliever, but the Royals have a stacked bullpen, and they have announced that Davis will go into spring training with a chance to reestablish himself in the rotation. Given that their bullpen is stacked, this is a rare glimpse of wisdom in the insanity that is this deal. If Davis can maintain his extra juice, he would be a very valuable no. 3 starter — particularly since Davis is signed to a contract that gives the Royals club options to keep him at a reasonable salary through 2017.

It's unlikely that this trade will work out for the Royals, but if it does, Davis — not Shields — will be the key to the trade. And if the Royals traded six-plus years of Wil Myers for seven combined years of control of Shields and Davis, this would almost be a fair deal. It would still favor the Rays, given that Myers is years away from making serious money, while Shields and Davis are already making it. But at least it wouldn't be Grand Theft Farm System.

Ah, but the Royals also threw in three other prospects!

Jake Odorizzi, whom the Royals acquired when they traded Zack Greinke two years ago, is a major league–ready starter with four average to above-average pitches. In 145 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, he struck out 135, walked 50, and had a 3.03 ERA. He's probably not more than a no. 3 starter in the end, but he's already a finished prospect — you don't have to dream on him. He was ranked the no. 69 prospect by Baseball America two years ago, the no. 68 prospect last year, and will probably be in that range again. Basically, he's Wade Davis, only four years younger and with three years' less service time.

Mike Montgomery was one of the best left-handed pitchers in the minors two years ago, back when everything was coming up 7's for the Royals. Even a year ago, he was ranked above Myers as the Royals' best prospect, thanks to a fastball in the mid-90s and an excellent changeup. He has mysteriously lost the ability to get hitters out, however, with an ERA over 5 in the minors in each of the past two seasons. He's a lottery ticket for Tampa Bay, but one that could pay off very, very big.

Patrick Leonard just turned 20 years old, and he hit 14 homers in 62 games in rookie ball this year. He could be just about anything. He's not a top prospect, and probably never will be, but he's just the safety-deposit box the Rays snatched up on their way out of the bank vault.

So if you want to read this trade as charitably as possible from the Royals' perspective, you can say that they almost got fair value for Wil Myers … and then flushed Odorizzi, Montgomery, and Leonard down the toilet.

It's a terrible trade, and for it to work out at all for the Royals, they have to go to the playoffs next season. If they do, then the tradeoff might be worth it, the way it was for the Milwaukee Brewers two years ago when they traded Brett Lawrie for Shaun Marcum, and four young players for Zack Greinke.

But as they're presently constructed, the Royals still aren't good enough to win the AL Central. Their top four starters, none of whom were with the team as recently as July, are Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Davis. Aside from Shields, that's a lot of league-average talent. If they're going to the playoffs, their offense will have to carry them there.

Only here's the thing: The Royals' offense was worse than their pitching staff last season. Thanks to their fine bullpen, the Royals ranked 10th in the AL in runs allowed in 2012. They ranked 12th in runs scored.

If the Royals do make the playoffs in 2013, it will be because their offense took a huge step forward. It will be because Eric Hosmer, who struggled to hit .232/.304/.359 as a sophomore, returns to being the Will Clark clone that everyone expects him to be. It will be because Salvador Perez doesn't get hurt and miss half the season, and because Mike Moustakas improves his batting average, and — most of all — because the Royals get production out of right field.

By making this trade, the Royals gave away the most obvious source of an offensive upgrade. There is no better example of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

There is also no better example of moral hazard, the term that applies to the dangers of having a decision maker (like, say, a GM) whose self-interests are not aligned with those he's making decisions for (like, say, a baseball team). Prior to this trade, the Royals were well set up to win 85-90 games in 2014, when a wave of pitching talent in their farm system was expected to catch up with the hitters who have already arrived. They seemed poised to be competitive through the rest of the decade. Wil Myers would have been in the middle of their lineup the entire time.

But winning 90 games in 2014 does Dayton Moore no good if the Royals struggle again in 2013, because after six consecutive losing seasons to start Moore's tenure, a seventh in 2013 would probably mean he'd be out of a job. This trade hurts the Royals significantly in the long term, but it might help Moore keep his job in the short term.

If the Royals reach the postseason in 2013, ending the longest playoff drought in American sports, Moore will keep his job, and he might even deserve to. It was the work of his front office that led the Royals to draft players like Myers2 in the first place. Even if Moore gutted his farm system for a playoff appearance, by Kansas City standards that qualifies as an unbridled success.

And if they don't win, well, at least there won't be any doubt about whom to blame. It's not owner David Glass, not with the Royals poised to have a payroll north of $80 million. Moore didn't just push all his chips into the pot — he pushed in his job security as well. If his gamble fails, and if it turns out that Moore sacrificed the Royals' future for an illusory present, Royals fans can only hope that someone else will be able to pick up the pieces.

alnorth 12-11-2012 12:09 PM

Tavaras looks God-awful and should have virtually no chance to make the team. He might be a 4th OF in Omaha.

alnorth 12-11-2012 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 9199749)
Side note on Shields:

I was looking at his PitchFx data to try and quantify the claims that he changed his approach after 2010. The difference was pretty astounding. He has always been a fastball/change heavy pitcher, but...

From 2010 to 2011/12, Shields drastically reduces the use of his two-seam fastball and cutter by about 60 percent while ramping up his curve and slider. As a result, his harder offerings - which got blistered in 2010 - become more effective.

It's not unusual for a guy around 30 to change his approach, but that's pretty drastic.

Oh, and his average fastball velocity has actually ticked up since he changed this approach. So even though he just turned 31, that's trending positively (unusual for pitchers this age).

From what I read, Shields probably has one of the best changeups in the game, and he relies on it heavily. That might explain some of his durability.

sedated 12-11-2012 12:24 PM

Trade analysis from Deadspin:
http://deadspin.com/5967520/the-roya...m-with-windows

Quote:

In November of 2007, the Rays were on the edge of contention, though not everyone knew it: their regular-season record (like the 2012 Royals') didn't suggest a team about to take the next step. Those Rays, like the current Royals, had hitters: what they needed was pitching and defense. And so they dealt from a position of strength to address a weakness, trading Delmon Young and Brendan Harris (and Jason Pridie) to the Twins for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett (and Eduardo Morlan). Young, like Myers, had been the top prospect in baseball as a projected right fielder, and he'd finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting that season. Also like Myers, he'd just turned 22.
Quote:

Joe Sheehan, taking Tampa Bay's side, wrote this:

"With this deal, the Rays have shifted from collecting talent to forming it into a baseball team, and this trade shows how seriously they take the process. Trading a player with the perceived value of Young is never easy, but with it they've leveraged a gap between that perceived value and what he actually is to make their team better."
Quote:

as R.J. Anderson pointed out recently, it's somewhat worrisome that Myers is one of the only prospects of his caliber to be traded before ever taking the field for the team that drafted him.
Quote:

If Myers is the next Young—consensus top prospect turned replacement-level player—then the Royals will have out-Raysed the Rays, trading a flawed young player at the peak of his value, when his potential still seemed likely to pan out.

kstater 12-11-2012 12:26 PM

Another year, joy.
Just saw the trade, double joy.

DM is all-in on it. I guess I can be excited.

KC_Connection 12-11-2012 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 9199767)
From what I read, Shields probably has one of the best changeups in the game, and he relies on it heavily. That might explain some of his durability.

It's fantastic. He's made even Bautista look bad on it on occasion.

DeepSouth 12-11-2012 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ROYC75 (Post 9199762)
Myers, as mentioned, was named Minor League Player of the Year. In the past 20 years, 14 position players won the same award. Here are their names:

1992: Tim Salmon
1993: Manny Ramirez
1994: Derek Jeter
1995: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1997: Paul Konerko
1998: Eric Chavez
2002: Rocco Baldelli
2003: Joe Mauer
2005: Delmon Young
2006: Alex Gordon
2007: Jay Bruce
2008: Matt Wieters
2009: Jason Heyward
2011: Mike Trout

I love Alex Gordon. But he's on this list for 2006. I watched him play AAA ball for Omaha in 2010 because he sucked so bad they sent him back down. He did not bat up to his expectations until 2011. Would you want to wait five years for Myers? I'm all for taking a proven MLB pitcher now for a "should be a star" outfielder.

BigCatDaddy 12-11-2012 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC_Connection (Post 9199796)
It's fantastic. He's made even Bautista look bad on it on occasion.

Even Bautista???????? Holy shit!

KC_Connection 12-11-2012 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy (Post 9199801)
Even Bautista???????? Holy shit!

Yes, you might know him as the 2nd best hitter in baseball over the last three seasons behind Miguel Cabrera. Doesn't look bad at the plate too often, but that's what Shields does to hitters with that pitch.

KC_Connection 12-11-2012 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 9199504)
KC Connection hits on the head: Player A is Jay Bruce.

I was looking at the list of BA POTY over the past 20 years, and trying to break them into categories (Superstar/First division/injury bust/bust/too early to tell) and Jay Bruce was one that was hard to slot.

So I looked at his minor league numbers the year he was named POTY, and was shocked at the similarities.

If I were forced to lay a bet on it, I'd guess Myers' major league numbers look a LOT like Bruce's - except with a few less HRs (playing in the Trop for 81 games vs. playing in that bandbox in Cincinnati).

I started asking myself... If I were a Reds fan, and Cincy had traded Bruce for two years of (INSERT SOMEONE SIMILAR TO JAMES SHIELDS) before the 2008 season, how would I feel about it now (assuming that guy pitched well for my team).

Took me all the way into acceptance mode.

Yeah, he's a pretty good comparable it seems. Bruce's defense isn't so impressive and that restricts his value. What's Myers' like?

Infidel Goat 12-11-2012 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Priest31kc (Post 9199734)
Bob Dutton ‏@Royals_Report

#Royals sign LHP George Sherrill and RHP Dan Wheeler to minor-league deals in addition to OF Willy Taveras.

Lefties bat .186 against Sherrill and righties bat .216 against Wheeler.

Can we play them like this?

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AAIoN6-jv8...Bob%2BWalt.jpg

Mr. Laz 12-11-2012 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedated (Post 9199791)
If Myers is the next Young—consensus top prospect turned replacement-level player—then the Royals will have out-Raysed the Rays, trading a flawed young player at the peak of his value, when his potential still seemed likely to pan out.

hopefully this is the case

The Royals could have/should have had Myers up late in the season last year and they didn't.

Is that Frenchy love or Myers value would probably drop?


i don't know but now i hope Myers is a huge bust

stevenidol 12-11-2012 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ROYC75 (Post 9199762)
This guy thinks the trade was crap, here's his take .........

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...de-aint-pretty


A Royal Blunder
Why it made no sense for the Kansas City Royals to trade star prospect Wil Myers
By Rany Jazayerli on December 10, 2012

Rany had the same boner for Kila too.

cabletech94 12-11-2012 01:05 PM

damn. i wanted to make it on page 1.

let's go royals. let's go.

Chiefspants 12-11-2012 01:09 PM

After a few days to cool down, I must admit, it's wonderful to be excited again.

alnorth 12-11-2012 01:13 PM

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...s-shields.html

The Tigers offered Avisail Garcia and several prospects for Shields, and they probably would have gotten him if we didn't come in with Myers.

Demonpenz 12-11-2012 01:22 PM

David Howard hit that ball that Jim Edmonds did the over the head grab on.

RockChalk 12-11-2012 01:24 PM

1) Thank you for creating the 2013 thread, Duncan.

2) Is ChiefsandO'sFan banned from trolling this thread?

Jerm 12-11-2012 01:27 PM

Alright damnit...after a couple of days, I'm calm about the trade and ready to go.

I'm excited we'll actually be fielding a major league caliber rotation.

I'm all in and can't frickin wait for the season.

doomy3 12-11-2012 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 9199867)
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...s-shields.html

The Tigers offered Avisail Garcia and several prospects for Shields, and they probably would have gotten him if we didn't come in with Myers.

Interesting.

ChiTown 12-11-2012 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockChalk (Post 9199887)
1) Thank you for creating the 2013 thread, Duncan.

2) Is ChiefsandO'sFan banned from trolling this thread?

If not he should be. Dude is annoying as ****

KevB 12-11-2012 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevenidol (Post 9199855)
Rany had the same boner for Kila too.

Wasn't close to the same argument. Back then, he didn't argue that Kila was the best young hitter in the minors. He effectively argued that a team as flawed as the Royals at the time should give him a shot.

Fansy the Famous Bard 12-11-2012 01:59 PM

exactly. We were running Ross Gload out ther every day, with Kila tearing up the minors. That's why he wanted Kila to get a shot. He didn't compare him to great ML players, or what a star Kila could be. He said he was a cheap minor league option that was producing, would cost the fraction of what Gload was costing, and at WORST would put up similar production... at best would have multiplied it.

Guess what? In 2010 Kila got 180 at bats and stunk it up.. he still outproduced with those limited AB's what Gload was doing with nearly 400 AB's.

In 2009, they brought in an expensive Mike Jacobs to give us less production than what it would have cost to have Kila do that.

That's BAD GM'ing.

BigCatDaddy 12-11-2012 01:59 PM

Sorry if repost. Moore gets pantys in wad and wreaking of Pioli here.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/st...tampa-bay-rays

Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore is going for it, and he's not happy that he's taking heat for his approach.


Moore acquired former All-Star James Shields and fellow right-hander Wade Davis from Tampa Bay in a six-player deal Sunday that sent top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi, along with two other minor leaguers, to the Rays.


There is no question the Royals improved their pitching staff, but they paid a premium for a marginal upgrade, Keith Law writes. Blog


Multiple media outlets have blasted the move, saying the Royals gave up too much. ESPN.com's Keith Law wrote that "the deal reeks of a GM feeling pressure to improve short-term performance to keep his job, which is a terrible situation for any executive both personally and for the way it can inhibit his ability to make rational decisions."



"To me, that's insulting," Moore told USA Today Sports on Monday. "That's very insulting. Very, very insulting. I don't get too bent up about criticism, and I want to take the high road here, but that's insulting my integrity."


The Royals haven't made the playoffs since 1985, even though the AL Central has looked very winnable over the years. The Royals -- 23rd in ERA last season -- dealt for arms from the Rays, the team with baseball's best ERA.


Still, many believe Myers -- who batted .314 with 37 home runs and 109 RBIs in 134 games at Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha -- was too big a piece to surrender. Law wrote: "This looks very much like the deal that, barring something completely unexpected, will be the move that brings Dayton Moore's tenure in Kansas City, one marked by massive improvement in the team's farm system, to an end."


Moore, who has been the Royals' GM since 2006, said he's not making moves to keep his job.


"If something happened, I couldn't get another job in baseball? Is that what people think?'' he said, according to USA Today Sports.


The Royals were 72-90 last season and haven't had a winning season since 2003, but Moore is banking on a revamped veteran rotation to turn things around. In addition to their trade with the Rays, the Royals acquired 29-year-old right-hander Ervin Santana from the Los Angeles Angels and signed free-agent right-hander Jeremy Guthrie, 33, to a three-year contract.



"When you can acquire a pitcher like James Shields and Wade Davis, we have to do it, because that's what we've committed to our team -- we've committed to our organization," Moore said after the trade. "It's important that we start winning games

sedated 12-11-2012 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedated (Post 9199791)

Another tid-bit from that story:

Quote:

And maybe Myers isn't worth what his public prospect rankings would suggest, which seems plausible if, as Jeff Passan reported, the A's really turned down a straight-up swap of Myers for the fragile left arm of Brett Anderson.

BlackHelicopters 12-11-2012 02:08 PM

Thank you Mr. Idaho.
Always optimistic in December.
My worries: I think Santana is injured. Just a gut feeling.
3 months of Guthrie leaves me unconvinced. I want to be wrong.
I am 48 years old, and I still have dirt from the home plate area from Game 7 when I lept onto the turf at Royals Stadium from atop the visitors dugout. I was a naive 20 year old, thinking the Royals would continue to be contenders. I want this to work out. 27 jaded seasons tells me otherwise.

Jenson71 12-11-2012 02:08 PM

Is Myers going to be an opening day starting for Rays?

BigCatDaddy 12-11-2012 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Literature (Post 9200012)
Is Myers going to be an opening day starting for Rays?

They'll keep him in the minors for a month to save on service time and then bring him up in May.

RockChalk 12-11-2012 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiTown (Post 9199908)
If not he should be. Dude is annoying as ****

I don't think he intentionally means to be that way. He just has absolutely zero self-awareness.

alnorth 12-11-2012 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy (Post 9199986)
Sorry if repost. Moore gets pantys in wad and wreaking of Pioli here.

I don't really have a problem with him getting pissed, I was extremely surprised that Law would do that.

Its one thing for random message board fans like us to wildly speculate, but for a guy working at ESPN to accuse a GM of doing something that is not in the team's best interest just to save his job, is a very serious accusation. You kinda need proof for that, it would be like a local reporter, with no evidence at all, writing that maybe the mayor and the local police chief are both on the take.

BigCatDaddy 12-11-2012 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 9200055)
I don't really have a problem with him getting pissed, I was extremely surprised that Law would do that.

Its one thing for random message board fans like us to wildly speculate, but for a guy working at ESPN to accuse a GM of doing something that is not in the team's best interest just to save his job, is a very serious accusation. You kinda need proof for that, it would be like a local reporter, with no evidence at all, writing that maybe the mayor and the local police chief are both on the take.

That's what they are paid to do. It was my first thought on the trade as well so it's not exactly far fetched. I thought the line about him being able to get another job in baseball was pretty stupid though. I would hope he actually valued not having to up root his family and head to another city for a likely demotion.

duncan_idaho 12-11-2012 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 9200055)
I don't really have a problem with him getting pissed, I was extremely surprised that Law would do that.

Its one thing for random message board fans like us to wildly speculate, but for a guy working at ESPN to accuse a GM of doing something that is not in the team's best interest just to save his job, is a very serious accusation. You kinda need proof for that, it would be like a local reporter, with no evidence at all, writing that maybe the mayor and the local police chief are both on the take.

That article is an excellent example of why Keith Law will have a really hard time working in baseball again.

I like his takes most of the time... but he occasionally goes off the deep end with arrogance/insults.

siberian khatru 12-11-2012 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 9200074)
That article is an excellent example of why Keith Law will have a really hard time working in baseball again.

I like his takes most of the time... but he occasionally goes off the deep end with arrogance/insults.

Kinda like his old boss.

Chief_For_Life58 12-11-2012 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts (Post 9199535)
This is the year I get back into baseball, and I'm all in on the Royals. What else do I have to cheer for these days?

the chiefs? whats the difference this year? weve always blew

duncan_idaho 12-11-2012 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by siberian khatru (Post 9200081)
Kinda like his old boss.

Yes. Exactly. De Podesta is going to have to be a good little boy and play nice for a long time before he gets a chance to run another operation.

De Podesta was by far the biggest a-hole I ever talked to in my sports career. Even bigger than Bob Feller.

eazyb81 12-11-2012 03:01 PM

Any word on who or how good the PTBNL will be?

Cephalic Trauma 12-11-2012 03:01 PM

Whoa, Rany is a dermatologist and graduated from Hopkins. Wow, I pictured a blogger holed up in his basement or soemthing.

Derm basically means he was around the top of his class at Hopkins. :eek:


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