No, because the Chiefs can't plan their draft relying on what they think teams picking after them might do. You can't have the #1 pick and also approach the draft with a reactive mindset dependent on multiple other teams. Trading down is a luxury you cannot and do not plan for.

Well, according to you and Detox, Joeckel isn't going until 7 or 8.

I will bet you 50.00 to the winner's favorite charity that Joeckel is gone before the 8th pick.

Because....

1. This was before Albert was franchised.
2. The media gets a hard on mocking a LT to the Chiefs.


FFS.....Joeckel isn't even viewed as the #1 LT in this class by some.

That's the real issue. Why trade to #1 when you can get equivalent players not only later in the top 10, but in the latter half of the round, or even the early part of the second. I mean, seriously, what player in this class is actually worth moving up for? We're probably stuck right where we are.

In fact, I make the same bet to Detox.

Ugghhh.......read what the **** I wrote.

I said he isn't going in the top 3.

That simply makes more sense than any other argument I have seen here yet.

This is a weak draft, period. I will probably be proven wrong in the long run, and I can live with that. But I see nothing that makes me believe the Chiefs will take Geno Smith as a #1 pick.

I guess we just view it in a different way. Alex Smith was the best available QB, whether that be via Trade or F/A. The value of the 2nd round pick is based on who is actually Available to draft in the second round.

Honestly, this draft is thin, so Alex Smith in the 2nd may be better than anything else they would've gotten.

Anytime i hear the words "Depth draft" floating around that tells me that this draft class isn't any good.

Remember the last "depth draft"? 2009.

So once again, how much did they REALLY give up, if they didn't highly value the players projected in the 2nd round?

We're both making assumptions based on Compensation, when we really don't know exactly what the compensation is going to be.

Do you agree that if Alex doesn't receive a contract extension, that that says a lot about their intentions?

You, and Detox, also stated that Philly and Cleveland weren't interested in another LT. As I said I was using the statements from you AND Detox.

The bet still stands though. In fact, I bet he goes top 5.

I never said Joeckel was going to fall to 8 (Though it is possible). You argued that the Eagles or Browns would trade up for him...those teams pick at 4 & 6.

There's a couple of things that you are forgetting. One, they have the first pick and everyone is behind them. Two, a deal for that pick would likely be done in advance.

You're arguing with a bunch of people.....keep it straight.

I said that Cleveland doesn't need a LT.....not Philly.

You are right.

You and many others have made a circular argument that cannot be penetrated. Which is the reason that I am also betting that you and Pestilence are screaming bloody murder when Hunt doesn't pick Geno Smith at number 1.

And again, I am willing to bet another 50.00 on that.

1, 4 and 6 shouldn't pick a LT, and i doubt they will considering they have Franchise LT's in place.

2, 3 and 5 MIGHT take a LT, but i think that would be dependent on how the rest of the draft falls.

Yup, with 99.9% probability if it were to occur.

All that should tell you is that there aren't any blue chip players. Meaning that this is a draft that's thin at the very top of the first round. And that's all. Mid-first through the middle rounds this year is as good as any other. And that 34th pick may actually have more value than other years, rather than less. There are going to be some very good players going in the late 1st and early second. Unfortunately we're giving up any and all flexibility in terms of moving.

Basically, you don't think they're giving up very much, but I think 180 degree opposite of that. I think they're spending a ton. Far, far too much. Even if they're not giving anything else up. That 34th pick is too much. And that's part of the reason I think it's a long-term move. You spend that much on a starter, not a band-aid.

As far as re-signing Alex Smith goes, no, I actually wouldn't read anything into that. They have plenty of cap space this year, so they don't really need to do any cap magic. For all I know it may actually help them reach the floor number they're required to spend.

(But that's just a guess).

I'm not going to be screaming "bloody murder" if the Chiefs don't draft Geno. I've stated repeatedly that it's an outside chance. My argument is that it is in fact, still a chance, and that chance increased with the tagging of Albert.

Im well aware that Geno isn't likely, but what irritates me is when people claim that A LT is MORE likely.

It's not about restructuring his contract. It's about COMMITMENT to him. An extension = Commitment. No extension = wait and see.

As far as the draft goes, im not buying the "depth 2-whatever" argument. If there are no great players are the top, then there are no great player at the mid-bottom.

It's a shallow draft.

If the raiduhs take Joeckel at #3 while Floyd and Lotulelei are still available they deserve to be demoted to a defunct NFL Europe team. Both Kelly and Seymour have been almost as big a disappointment as Jamarcus Russell.

I apologize for saying this, but I can't think of any other response: that's just a ludicrous way of looking at the draft.

Star has a heart condition, so it's not like the guy is a lock for the top 5, hell maybe not even top 10.

The best players go early, do they not?

The draft thins out as it goes on.

They have also discussed moving Branden Albert over and while he has stated he wouldn't want to do so, especially since he would likely make less money, I would believe that to be more likely than drafting Smith at #1.

The Chiefs haven't talked about moving Albert.

Thus the reason I included Sharrif Floyd in my statement

Who has discussed this? Over where? You think they Tagged Albert as a LT and will be paying him a LT salary so he can play guard? Mmm....nah i don't think so.

Are they going to move him to RT to replace a top 10 guy that they just signed last season?

yeah, not buying that one either.

"Likely"?

How many times has the #1 overall pick been traded before draft day?

Shit...how many times has the #1 pick been traded period.

Actually, that is a horrible rash assumption. I am sure it has been mulled as almost every source that has interviewed Albert has asked him about potentially moving to right guard which he vehemently denies will happen but has never stated has not been discussed by the franchise.

The franchise tag reduces the chances of drafting Luke, but I would still say is more likely than Smith.

You don't franchise a guy at a LT's salary and play him at guard.

You don't franchise a guy who you don't believe is a legit LT.

You have to read between the lines here.

When you put a Franchise tag on your LT, that means you believe he's a Franchise LT.

Pretty clear imo.

When Albert responds to people regarding the switch to Guard, he could very well be simply responding to the fans/media who incessantly label him a guard even though he's proven that he's a top 10 LT.

If the Chiefs thought he was a guard, they wouldn't have tagged him.

I want to cuddle you so hard right now over this post. +1

I still believe there is a chance the Chiefs could take Geno. It depends on the compensation that the Chiefs have agreed to with the 49ers.

If it's truly this year's 2nd+ then i doubt it because they have decided that Alex Smith is the guy. An extension will be coming along with trade. If it's a swap of 2nd or something less then they could very well trade for Alex and draft Geno as a QBoTF.

Alex Smith will NOT be happy if the Chiefs draft a guy in the top 3 rounds though.

Why the **** would Alex Smith get an extension?

He's only played a full season twice in his entire career.

Especially since he opted out of SFO for that exact reason and possibility.

Threatening people?

Reported. Get a grip.

And we're supposed to give a **** because?

Alex Smith left because the new regime found a QB that was better than him and moved on.

If Alex Smith gets pissed because his new team drafts a QB in the first 3 rounds.....then Alex Smith is a pussy and doesn't deserve to be an NFL QB. This entire league is about competition.

Too bad. That's never stopped other teams before. It's time the Chiefs be like that....

AR will trade down, get something around #10 and then stock picks, probably get that 2nd rounder back as well

Smith will be the man for a year or two while AR searches for that franchise QB

If they have traded as much as been rumored than i don't see how they wouldn't follow up with a contract extension. A 1st(basically) and 3rd+ for a Quarterback means he is your guy ... period. I've heard rumors of possibly 4 draft picks being the cost.

You don't trade that much for a 2-year rental.

You don't care if you QB gets pissed at the end of his run with the team, not the beginning.

I know everyone hates the trade etc but if the Chiefs have traded that much for Alex Smith then they aren't going to want him pissed off from Day 1.

I never stated you were to give a "shit".

I stated it made no reason to take Smith for such a high pick and then draft Geno Smith at number 1. You, nor anyone else here, have yet convinced me as to a logical reason this would happen. Sorry.

Again, Steve McNair sat his first two seasons with the Titans (at least a season and a half), and I'm thinking everyone here would let Geno sit for a season or two if the end result was a Super Bowl berth. There would be no crime in taking Geno. Our QB situation is far worse than our tackle situation, and Dorsey/Reid do seem to understand that you just won't win in this league without a capable QB. Unfortunately for Alex Smith, he doesn't seem to be quite so durable. The Chiefs need quarterback upgrades in the worst way. Hell, I wouldn't be against them beinging in Matt Moore while drafting Geno, and let Geno ride third string this year.

Evidently many here believe that is just what you do.

1. We don't know exactly WHAT the compensation is.
2. You realistically can trade that for Alex Smith and let him play out the remainder of his 2 years. He hasn't proven shit and he's moving to an offense where he's going to be asked to do a lot more than he did in SF. Giving him a contract extension would be on the Cassel level of stupid.

And it doesn't matter because you've already made up your mind. Nothing ANYONE says...no matter how logical it is....is going to make you change your mind.

FFS.....you thought the Browns should trade up for a LT.

What other position on this team deserves more attention than quarterback at this point in time?

I couldn't care less if they used our first four picks on QB's int he draft. You absolutely, positively will NOT win in the NFL without AT LEAST above average play at the QB position.

in any case, there is very little reason left to pay dearly for Geno

at minimum, you can trade down and try to grab him later if he is still there, if he isn't then you go with Smith and stock draft picks and look to upgrade QB later on

IF this front office takes a QB at 1.1 (be in Barkley or Geno Smith)....you're going to see 2 things.

1. Andy Reid will public ally declare that Alex Smith is his starting QB.
2. Geno/Barkley will not come off the bench at any time during that first season (barring an injury or an 0-16 season).

I can see it happening.

The people arguing for why Geno at #1 to the Chiefs is still a conceivable and perhaps even logical pick are gonna get labeled dumbasses who believe that's what the Chiefs will do.

I just want to reiterate this right now: I don't believe there are more than a handful of people who believe Geno in a Chiefs uniform after the draft is very likely at all. But it's a possibility, and that's what we talk about on football forums.

If all we ever did was talk about shit that was likely or predictable, this would be Warpaint Forum, Arrowhead Addict, or one of those other shitty boards where fans don't have real opinions. They just sit back and say, "It's not my decision, let's just wait and see."

Alex Smith will also be pretty pissed if he has a really good year, gets knocked out for a couple of games (and history says it will happen to him) and then the team has to rely on Dick Stanzi to keep them in playoff contention.

Who would you rather take the reigns if something happens to ASmith-- Geno or Dick?

Oh yeah. Forgot about Stanzi. Forget everything, we're saved.

We've heard dozens of stories over the last few weeks about how Smith was a great team player and never spoke out about the 15 dozen times he was benched. He'll be fine. It's a business.

It is not out of this world to believe that Andy Reid and John Dorsey view the gaping hole that we have at QB as the #1 priority to fix. They can simply do that by trading a 2nd round pick for Alex Smith and taking a QB at 1.1.

Alex Smith gives Andy Reid the opportunity to win now and bring a winning mentality back to this team. Geno Smith/Matt Barkley give Reid the opportunity to build for the future.

100% fine with me and 100% the right move IMO. Maybe Reid sees all the talent in the world in Geno but wants a year to coach him up while having a good game manager help install a winning attitude in the locker room by winning games. If we go 8-8 with Alex Smith and groom Geno while showing some of these young players what it feels like to win games Andy Reid is a genius.

1. You're right, we don't know what the compensation is and i have included that in my comments as a qualifying factor. I hope they didn't spend that much because IF they did then they don't consider Alex Smith a stopgap and we are unlikely to draft a QB until the 4-ish round or later.

2. You're just hoping ... possible but not likely.

It's the best case scenario right now. I still only put it happening at like 30-35% though.

It makes more sense than drafting another 3-4 DE or a #2 CB.

I keep going back to that opening press conference.

Andy Reid said, "We gotta do everything we can to find that next Len Dawson. Whether that means trading for a guy, drafting... maybe he's already here on the roster. But it's my job to find him."

Well, this certainly qualifies as "doing everything." They're leaving no stone unturned if they go this route.

I can see this as well

This

To take this thought further, Kaepernick himself said that Alex wasn't only a complete stand up guy after he lost the starting gig, but was also a defacto coach on the sideline. Kap heaped a ton of praise on Alex for how he helped him come along.

Can't be. Frankie told me yesterday that Drafting Geno would create an immediate controversy and a volatile locker room.

Even if Alex Smith shits gold and gives Geno Smith a blowjob every day, it makes no sense. You don't trade a 1st and 3rd+ only to draft a QB with the 1st pick.

Picking up a guy like Hasselbeck or something would be the move. Garrard.


I know people don't want to give up hope but the cost of the Alex Smith trade will tell us a lot when we find out.

I understand what you're getting at, but like I said to Wolfman, I really don't care what they throw at the quarterback position. Throw as many picks/free agents in there as it takes to get that position solidified.

We WILL NOT win anything in this league until the QB spot on this team is fixed, and that includes taking the best tackle/end/corner/receiver, or any other position out there. No quarterback (and these days, a backup QB as well), and you might as well just accept you won't win in the playoffs in spite of what happened in the regular season.

Hey a good thread, finally.

This. +1

I think it's a given we will draft a QB. My guess is Dorsey and Reid have targeted someone in a later round though.

completely different argument

I am not discussing/debating what the team SHOULD do with the QB position.


I'm talking about what they ARE doing. I just don't see how/why they would give up draft picks for Alex Smith and then turn around and give up the 1st pick of the draft for Geno Smith.

If they didn't give up that much for Alex Smith then all bets are off and we'll see.

let's put together a arrowhead field trip for fat elvis.

Man you need to put down the pipe and back away.

I'd say becasue they think our QB spot is just THAT BAD.

We're just a bunch of armchair GM/Coaches here giving our opinions on what we see (and think is pretty obvious). These guys are pros at what they do and know tenfold more than all of us put together.

There's just no way they saw the combo of Cassel/Quinn/Stanzi/Tanney and thought they could challenge for a championship. It would take a minimum of TWO QB's to make us relevant/competitive imho, and personally, I couldn't care less how many picks or how much money they spent to fix it. Remember, Reid has had at least above average QB play with all his guys in Philly, and Dorsey has watched Favre and Rodgers do their thing. No way do they stand pat and hope that just one free agent is going to fix this mess.

Just don't see this happening. Andy Reid just confirmed Alex Smith is his guy. It makes no sense to give up that much compensation just to have the guy replaced in 2014 or 2015.

Reid let us know what he thought of this QB class when he quickly made this deal with SF.

A team/business would not INVEST 9.75 million and a 2cd round draft pick on the QB position and then turn around and invest the number 1 pick in the draft on the same position. That would be admitting failure in picking up Alex Smith.

Not at all. It's an investment towards the future. Alex SMith will be 29 when the season starts, and has played 16 games a season only twice in his career. Sounds like a solid backup is a necessary thing with this guy.

I guess we'll know once (if) the trade actually goes through what they really think. If Alex is THE GUY with nobody to push him, they will tear up his contract and re-sign him to a fat new one.

It would be monumentally stupid to draft him now that they have 2 seconds wrapped up in Smith, or whatever it is. The team has too many holes to do something crazy like spend 4 or 5 second round picks worth of value on the starting and backup QBs - not to mention wrapping $15 million or more in cap space up by acquiring a luxury backup.

Trading down is the only thing that makes any kind of sense. If Geno was their guy, they'd have not purposed to not only look into Alex Smith but to WIN the bidding for him, and to do so at a price that made most people balk.

And the idea they got Smith to go for this and then will bring in someone to challenge him for the job is equally dumb.

We haven't even heard details of the contract extension Smith has agreed to yet. Once that comes out, this will be even more silly.

This.

:clap:

That's because there have been zero offers for a contract extension. We can't negotiate anyway, but the "insider" sources claim the Chiefs aren't interested at least in the short term in getting Alex a new deal

It's not stupid to throw picks at the QB position. It's stupid to keep throwing picks at defensive or offensive line positions.

You people understand that quarterback is your make or break position of ALL the positions on the field, right? You really shouldn't care how many draft picks or how much money goes into the position, as long as they get it right.

No, it would be addressing the complete failure of this franchise to address the QB position over the last 40 years.

The franchise's history in preceding decades has exactly nothing to do with anyone associated with the Chiefs today. Not even Clark.