Some reasons not to bet on the Chiefs...
 

Eesh.

http://www.walterfootball.com/nflpicks2013_09early.php

Ugh. I LOVED the Bills in this spot. They were going to be my October NFL Pick of the Month - the game is in November, but I'm making this selection in October, so it counts - but there is a chance Lewis may sit out. Lewis missed Wednesday's practice, prompting Doug Marrone to tell the media that it could be anyone.

If Lewis starts, this will be my October NFL Pick of the Month. Let's pretend for a second that Lewis returns to practice Thursday and is ready to go. Here's why I love Buffalo:

1. Let's first dispel the notion that betting against an undefeated team playing an opponent with a losing record is a poor proposition. Undefeated road favorites battling a team worse than .500 as a road in Week 9 or later are just 8-10 against the spread since 1990. The two most recent losses: the Falcons went down to the Saints last year, while the dominant Packers were upset at Kyle Orton-led Kansas City in Week 15 of 2011.

This is not enough itself to fade the Chiefs, but it just goes to show that Kansas City shouldn't be considered an automatic lock or anything.

2. Speaking of incorrect perception, the public is betting Kansas City pretty heavily, yet this spread dropped from -3.5 to -3. This indicates sharp money on the Bills. Average bettors are looking at this spread and saying, "Hurr durr, how can the Chiefs not beat the Bills?" It just looks so easy.

While the majority of the public might think this spread is too low, I think it's pretty high. I have this as Buffalo -1. Think about it this way: Chiefs -3 at Bills would be Chiefs -9 at Kansas City. Yet, the Chiefs were just -7.5 over the Browns, who were perceived to be absolutely dreadful with Jason Campbell at quarterback. Why would Cleveland be 1.5 points better than Buffalo? If the Browns have functional quarterback play, as they did with Campbell, they're about the same as the Bills.

3. Mentioning Campbell brings me to my next point: The Chiefs didn't cover the spread against Campbell or Case Keenum the past two weeks; they beat both third-string quarterbacks by a combined seven points - AT HOME! Had DeAndre Hopkins not dropped a touchdown two weeks ago, and had Davone Bess not single-handedly destroyed Cleveland's chances of winning, the Chiefs may have lost both contests - AT HOME! If Kansas City couldn't put away Houston or Cleveland at Arrowhead, why would they suddenly have success on the road?

Going further back, the Raiders led for a good chunk of their matchup at Kansas City, but Terrelle Pryor self-destructed at the very end. Before that, the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Titans gave Kansas City some trouble. At least that was on the road.

4. This home-road dynamic is important because the Chiefs haven't played an away game since Oct. 6. What does this mean? Well, there is a trend that goes against Kansas City: Road favorites that are coming off three consecutive home games are just 12-26 against the spread since 1989. Trends are meaningless unless there's a good reason behind them, and that happens to be the case here. The Chiefs haven't traveled for a while. They've been sitting comfortably at home. Now, they have to pack their bags and go on the road when they haven't done that in nearly a month. They're just not used to it.

The Chiefs have grown accustom to their loud fans cheering them on, but they won't have that luxury in Buffalo. In fact, the Bills have called for a "White Out" at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills' fans will be going nuts, as they'll root for their squad to slay the lone unbeaten team in the NFL.

Oh, and the Bills are good at home too. They nearly beat the Patriots in the opener. They then knocked off the Panthers and Ravens, and then they almost defeated the Bengals in Lewis' first start.

5. The Bills aren't just good at home. They went on the road and beat the Dolphins two weeks ago. They also had a healthy lead at Cleveland before Jeff Tuel ruined that. Sure, they lost by 18 at New Orleans this past Sunday, but no one wins at the Superdome when the Saints are good. Besides, Buffalo did actually hang around despite the lopsided score.

Buffalo is better than its 3-5 record indicates, and this is a must-win for them. They're 1.5 games out of the second wild card spot, so they still have to believe that they have a chance. If they can beat the Chiefs, they'll be in good shape because they get the Steelers, Jets, Falcons, Buccaneers, Jaguars and Dolphins after that. All of those matchups are winnable. If they lose this game, however, their season is pretty much over.

6. Conversely, Kansas City isn't nearly as good as its 8-0 record indicates. The Chiefs are more like a 5-3 team. They're good, but they're not great. They've gotten very fortunate with their joke of a schedule. They haven't beaten a single opponent that currently has a winning record. I'll reiterate that their last four wins have come against Fitzpatrick, Pryor, Keenum and Campbell, and all of those games have been close.

Also, this game means very little to the Chiefs. The AFC West will be decided by their two games against the Broncos. A win here won't matter very much.

7. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Andy Reid is 5-9 against the spread going into a bye. He generally doesn't have his teams prepared well when there's a week off looming.

8. Here's another trend just for fun: Teams (applies to the Chiefs) that won but failed to cover in their previous two games struggle as road favorites. They're 9-21 ATS in those situations dating back to 1989.

Again, this is my October NFL Pick of the Month if Lewis plays. If Lewis sits out, I'm not betting on the Bills at all. Tuel has the personality of Ryan Leaf and the arm of Matt Cassel. He sucks. Check back later in the week for an update.

NFL home field advantage isn't worth 3 points. It's worth about half a point.

In

Who cares about the spread. It doesn't matter if they win by 1 or 10....a WIN is a WIN.

we suck.

In for a point spread winner

I'd like to see a stat on undefeated teams the game before the bye. Zombo was on with Petro and stressed that they didn't want to sit on a loss for 2 weeks.

we might as well not get on the plane, have they left yet?

Prove it,

Walter doesn't think coach Reid has his teams prepared going into the bye week. Interdasting.
I wonder if that cancels out the Bills being

Anyone who bets NFL already knows not to bet KC. Ever. In the history of betting.

We also have a win over Blaine Gabbert.

It's the 2011 winning streak on steroids.

Discussing Buffalo on hump day/SNL making copies dude voice

Not even sure why they are playing this game. Just give it to the Bills and mark a loss for the Chiefs and let the players have two bye weeks.

We are going to beat their ass and end the losing streak there. **** the Bills!

This. Although I did win 20 dollars from a Raider. So there's that.

Betting the Chiefs is worse than constipation

We haven't played a good game in a while.


If the Chiefs put together a good game Buffalo is ****ed. If they play like they have been we are in for trouble.


That's what the experts have not mentioned: This team has played like ass yet still won games.

The reason they haven't is because they think it's the Chiefs norm. If they are to believe otherwise, the Chiefs will have to force that change of thought by playing better.

Yes sir.

If Alex hits a couple of wide open TD's this team would have won almost all of our games by 2 scores.

Browns by 2 field goals-does that count?

My friend bet the season bet at 8-8 for $300.00 Somehow I don't think he would rather be constipated then cash in. :)

He is going to be suicidal if they push.

I'm with you, this season blows.

ROFL I think we all will if that happens.

LMAO

Touche.

Some reasons not to bet on the Chiefs...
 

Stats that go back 30 years with only a sample size of 30 are pretty useless.

Also, the Raiders led for a good chunk of the game against us? Really? Define good chunk.

And why do people think having a mobile QB is a good thing against KC? The mobile guys tend to try to scramble quicker but they just run into someone else because we get so much pressure. Good pocket awareness is more important than just plain mobility.

Raiders took the lead early in the 3rd half and held on for the rest of the half.

I'm so sick of hearing about our SoS. It's like the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that gets the SoS asterisk.

What? The Raiders took the lead with about eight minutes left in the second then the Chiefs scored with about a minute left to tie it. The Raiders led for all of seven minutes in this game.

It's funny how the last 2 decades have driven us all to expect doom.

There's no real reason this team this year with this talent with this coaching staff should lose to the Buffalo Bills.

This will probably be Charles game of the year. He hasn't broke loose yet and is waaaay overdue.

Reread then repost. :D

No offense against this thread, but I hate writeups that act like they're about football when they're really about gambling. It would be impossible for me to care less about the Chiefs covering the spread. I only care about whether they win.

Oh my bad, LOL. Doh!

I think we'll beat the Bills, but a key will be how well Eric Fisher blocks Bruce Smith, and how well Houston and Hali stop the swing pass to Thurman Thomas.

Oakland led 7-0 at 8:47 in the 2nd quarter. We tied it at 1:12 in the 2nd and never trailed again.

So Good Chunk = 7 minutes and 35 seconds.

I learned a long time ago to never bet for or against the Chiefs.

Betting on teams you are a fan of is generally a bad idea in my opinion.

Andy Reid has done nothing but rape history in the neck this season.

Chiefs suck when they play games in Florida?

Alex Smith has never beaten Tony Romo?

Teams on a short week struggle on the road on Thursday night?

Giants giving it their all?

Fitzpatrick has raped the Chiefs in the past?

Chiefs haven't won at home vs Oakland since 2007?

Chiefs haven't won at home ever against Houston?

Chiefs have a bad record against Jason Campbell?

It's not going away and it shouldn't. Our SoS is bad. I'll take the wins but.....

Keenan and Campbell walked into Arrowhead with talented teams and above average defenses. Teams play harder trying to knock us off more than ever. For losing teams it gives them some type of moral victory. Neither of them won, so go **** yourself with your bullshit theory.

This is a decent point; the target is squarely painted on KC's back.

if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh if the Browns won, oh if the Texans won, oh if the Raiders won we wouldn't be 8-0.
Damn if's!!! This topic is stupid!!

Hopefully Kimble Anders holds on to the damned ball this time.

I look for the defense to come out and dominate in the game. Chiefs win easy

Not sure if serious. For many years the Chiefs were the team to bet on whenever they were a home underdog.

Direck what are you going to be for halloween?

im with hog

Chiefs have always been a bad team to bet on or against. Too unpredictable.

I'm just surprised someone wrote a post titled "Some reasons not to bet on the Chiefs" and didn't mention Alex Smith.

A lot of people have been mentioning that we have been so lucky to be playing against backups recently. I, for one, am relieved to finally be playing a quarterback who we have at least SOME recent footage of for scouting purposes.

Playing against an unknown quantity ain't always easy. In fact, it is typically a disadvantage.

Ya and if they keep Montana off his back.

The more I read about what the media thinks of the Chiefs, the more I think that we're the greatest combination of trolls ever assembled in pads.

People are so PISSED that KC is 8-0.

I don't think they're pissed... just confused. They're wondering (even after talking over and over about how much talent was on last season's roster) how this could happen. Looking for reasons.

Sure, they expected us to be better, but 8-0 is kinda nuts.

It all comes down to Chiefs vs. Denver. I don't even think we have to win both games. We beat Denver, and the story changes.

Pretty much.

The Chiefs sucked and underachieved because of Pioli, Cassel, Haley, Crennel and their entire staffs. They actually had talent to build around, just wasted it for the most past.

If you agree that this is an "Any Given Sunday" league.

There is no denying that what this team has done so far, (after 2-14) is nothing short of amazing.

Scary.

LMAO yeah, Fisher is definitely gonna get raped by Smith, it wont be pretty... although i have much faith in H and H taking out that swing pass.

So, how many rapings in a row will this be for our beloved 1.1?

Against Smith?

This will definitely be his fifth raping, good Lord i shudder to think of fisher facing that old bills D.

LMAO

Well, I guess it could have been worse. Joeckel and what-not...

And Romo and Manning, albeit at home.

I would like to officially nominate this as the dumbest post in the history of CP.

Let's put your colossally reeruned post to the test:

Please predict the outcome of KC at Denver and then two weeks later Denver at KC. Hmmm bet the difference is a shitload more than half a point you complete idiot. Historical DATA (that's real world numbers based on fact moron) puts the difference at an average of 2.5 but also varies from team to team somewhat.

My head is physically hurting from trying to come up with a solution to how an individual could possibly be so inept yet able to operate a computer.

it's a tarp!!

I'm pretty sure Bruce Smith doesn't play for the Bills anymore.

I was trying to determine the number of Fisher-rapings.

Incalculable, I know.

Weak.

Favorite part of this article?

"The Chiefs don't care that much about winning this game"

**** off, Walter. Add some more fantasy football spin on Adrian Peterson's son's death.

Now, now; such colorful descriptors as "turnstile" and "right this way, sir" can be applied.

That dude is like the Pete Prisco of draft prognostication. He hates this team for some reason.

I often find myself in 100% complete agreement with your posts.

But wow, i don't think i've ever seen you disagree with someone amicably, its always a slam dunk... oh well i guess, it is the Planet after all.

Ha, yeah I don't usually post that often and when I see a reasonable stance that I don't particularly agree with but can see the logic in the poster's opinion I typically don't respond. I suppose I'm just not that interested in discussions filled with "I see why you feel that way, however I think that in this case blah blah blah".

When I saw Mr. 1/2 IQ point's post I waited a while to respond figuring someone else would take him to task over his blatant stupidity. When no one stepped up to the plate, I guess I felt it was my duty to handle the business. I'd like to think my responses are usually proportionate to what's on the screen in front of me, I mean look at the easy example I cited which has our two biggest games of the season which are two weeks away. Same teams, short time frame between games, would anyone predict the two scores with a 1/2 point difference between the two games? Only a severely mentally challenged individual would. The only difference in the two games being where they are played, ie home-field advantage.

He's the board's greatest idiot hands down. I already asked him to prove his point but it's so incredibly dumb he won't be able to.



The long-term studies all agree it's roughly 3 points, unevenly distributed across location. But we don't even need studies to prove it, because we have the actual results. 57.3% of Home Teams win NFL games and in no meaningful stretch of time has the number ever deviated all that much. It's real, it's significant, it's permanent. And 1/2 point doesn't even come close to explaining that large an advantage.

No, I have counted them all up and came up with a solid number of rapings:


11tybillion

The entire '90s prove how dumb this post is.

If only we had loved Lin Elliot more, he wouldn't have missed 3 ****ing field goals in 1995.

LMAO

Pretty soon, quantum physics will have to be applied.

Update:

FRIDAY UPDATE: Well, so much for the October NFL Pick of the Month. Despite Wednesday reports indicating that Thad Lewis would start, the Bills listed Lewis as doubtful Friday afternoon. This sucks. Buffalo is unbettable with Jeff "Ryan Leaf 2.0" Tuel or the noodle-armed Matt Flynn. In fact, I think the Chiefs are the right side now. I'll stay with the Bills because I had switching sides late in the week, but I'm dropping this to zero units.

I'm going to keep my October NFL Pick of the Month alive, by the way. This means I'll have two Pick of the Month selections in either November or December.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm still pissed that I can't use the Bills as my NFL Pick of the Month.