Doesn't look like such a hard task to rebuild the defense now, does it.
 

In 2019:

DL:

We've got Jones under contract (and we should extend him ASAP).
We've got Derrick Nnadi under contract.
We've got Xavier Williams under contract.
We've got Justin Hamilton under contract.

We're losing Allen Bailey, however, so we'll need to add a piece.

OLB:

We've got a choice to make on Dee Ford coming up, but we'll likely keep him.
We've got Justin Houston under contract.
We've got Breeland Speaks under contract.
We've got Tanoh Kpassagnon under contract.

That's a pretty solid depth chart. Add a piece if the value is there but otherwise, we're set.

ILB:

We've got Anthony Hitchens under contract.
We've got Dorian O'Daniel under contract.
We've got Reggie Ragland under contract.
Niemann is under contract as well, but meh.

So adding a player or two here is probably important, but now that Sutton is utilizing the top three correctly, we're pretty solid here.

CB:

We've got Kendall Fuller under contract.
We've got Charvarius Ward under contract.
Tremon Smith is under contract as well, but meh.

This is obviously the biggest area of concern. We're going to need multiple investments at this position -- and not simply bottom of the roster stuff. Assuming we don't keep Steven Nelson, we're going to need to add a starter and depth.

S:

We've got Eric Berry under contract (LET'S JUST ASSUME HE GETS SURGERY).
We've got Daniel Sorensen under contract.
We've got Armani Watts under contract.
We've got Jordan Lucas under contract.
We've got Eric Murray under contract.

Assuming this team does what it needs to do with Berry, which is force him to get surgery, then I don't think we need to make a single addition here. (That's obviously a big if at this point, and Berry could very well retire as well.)

So we're looking at some additions in the front seven, and then some major investments at CB.

That puts us miles ahead of where we thought we were with this defense.

2019 could, somehow, be even better than 2018 was. Which, considering it's going to be the last year we'll have Mahomes on his rookie contract, puts us exactly where we need to be.

That OLB spot isn't something I'd call solid. Hopefully with an offseason Speaks is better, but I doubt Kpass is on the squad next season. He was a healthy scratch coming down the stretch.

Possible, but I think 28 teams in this league would probably swap their edge rusher position with ours. We've got two studs and Speaks/Kpass are not-terrible depth.

Again, I think we scoop up some talent if the value is there. But the priority #1, #2, and #3 needs to be beefing up the CB position, with some added emphasis on DL and ILB.

Sure, Houston and Ford are a top 5 duo in the league, paired with Jones and that's awesome.

But Kpass isn't depth at all at this point. They don't even dress him when he's healthy at times. I think that shit has sailed.

They need to address the DL, ILB and OLB spot this offseason. They don't need stars there, but a cheap deal for Shane Ray or someone like that at OLB would be nice for some insurance.

Deone Buchannon would be a nice get at S/LB

Eli Harold is a somewhat under the radar guy that wouldn't be a bad idea at OLB.

Preston Smith would be a nice get but he's gonna get broke off.

Za'Darius Smith is someone who would be awesome but he's getting paid too.

I'm guessing 5 years 80 mil for Ford. That's not gonna be ideal.

This doesn't deserve its own thread buttttttttttttt



This is a human being. Somehow.

I wouldn't actually mind keeping Bailey around.

Nor would I but I think you'll run into the biggest problem with backloading contracts - the anchor point.

Allen Bailey's AAV over the life of his contract has been in excess of $6 million. Now for those 4 years, I don't think you've gotten $6 million/season in value. However, this season has undeniably been the best season of his career and he was paid $6 million in base salary ($8 million cap hit with his bonus). He's not going to take a pay-cut to stick around after having a career year, at least not without testing the market first.

And the market is oversaturated with cap-dollars right now. Some team will probably give him a 3 yr/$28 million deal with a $10 million signing bonus and something like 4/6/8 million salaries. That's just what's gonna happen in an environment where cap dollars are going to spike.

Now maybe his market doesn't come together and you can get him back here for 2/$12 or something like that, but it just doesn't seem likely to me and he's definitely not going to extend without hitting the market at that figure.

Having a massive human being who will simply bull-rush guards if he's isolated is a pretty neat little wrinkle on this defense but I don't think it's something we can afford to pay for. That's why I think they should've been bulking K-Pass up to play with his hand on the ground.

I think realistically you want to come out of this offseason with the following positions:

A starting defensive end to replace Bailey.
Depth at the OLB spot.
A starting ILB opposite of Hitchens.
A starting CB opposite of Ward (who I think has starting material) and a depth CB.

The safety position is the probably the hardest to determine. I think Sorenson should be cut because his talent doesn't match his contract. Berry is the wild card because of his injury and contract. If it were up to me....I'd look for another starter and a depth piece while cutting Sorenson and Berry.

That would be my guess. They're just running into needing quite a bit this offseason.

I don't see a viable path to cutting Berry if/when he fails his physical and 80% of his 2019 salary ends up guaranteed.

And I think Fuller plays enough outside in our base sets that I am comfortable considering him our CB1 with Ward as the CB2. Ideally you'd find another starting caliber CB but I don't think I want to pay what the market bears for one, especially when I'm as desperate as I am to get Jones and Hill extended. Hell, I'd sure love to lock up Fuller for the foreseeable future as well.

If you have about $25 million in cap space after tagging Ford and cutting Sorensen, you can probably just barely get those 3 guys extended (and I mean barely). Even if they have relatively paltry year 1 base salries, they're gonna still carry $6-8 million cap hits when you spread those signing bonuses over 5 years. I gotta believe you're looking at at least $20 million in year 1 cap figures to get those 3 extended (and probably upwards of $70 million in cash spending by Clark to get those bonuses paid which isn't exactly a given).

I just think the idea of going out into the market and adding any key pieces is pretty damn optimistic. And you're not getting much more active in 2020 either as Houston/Berry/Watkins dropping off will pretty much pay for the inevitable raises built into the contracts for Hill, Jones and Fuller. We'd be able to move on from Hitchens at that point but it would be painful so if he's even average we'd hold onto him.

Cutting Houston, Berry and Watkins in 2020 would free up about $40 million and that should be enough to cover the massive base salary increases that you see in year 2 of those extensions. I don't see restructuring being the answer either; the money just isn't there if we hope to hold onto the 'new core' of players in their early/mid 20s. And I know Watkins is in that age range himself but injuries and likely earning potential just makes holding onto him incredibly unlikely, IMO.

Welcome to life as a talented team in a cap league, man.

It's going to be like this every year. That's why I always thought the "Dorsey couldn't manage a cap" crowd was being unfair - the cap is difficult to navigate because agents and players know how much money is out there to be spent and do everything they can to ensure they get as big a cut of it as they can.

Afterall, if we won't pay them, someone else will.

It's just reality. Sometimes you gotta coach up cheap players or hide them with scheme. I'd say we have quite a few needs right this very minute and we still went 12-4. With a full allotment of picks and a slow accumulation of young depth under this regime, I think we're in a good situation to be even better next season than we are now.

I don't know if there are any FAs that I would be looking at bringing in right now anyways.

And I'm still torn on tagging Ford or trying to give him a Watkins type deal where you can get out in year 3.

I'd pay the man, personally. And try to get him through year 3; escape in 4.

If he'd take Melvin Ingram's deal with a 10% kicker, I'd do it in a heartbeat. I don't think this is a contract year special because I've heard the guy speak enough that I think he's genuine. I think he's simply a guy who's finally healthy and who's learned a TON in his time here.

The nice thing about Ingram's deal is that the Chargers can escape after year 2 or 3 relatively easily or even let all 4 years play out and be fine. If that's the structure of Ford's deal it would protect the Chiefs in the event of a back injury. And with a $10 million signing bonus as well as a tick over $12 million in year one base/roster bonuses, he got paid $21 million in actual cash when he signed that deal - that's a hell of a boost over the $16 million or so he'd get under the tag.

He'd also get $34 million in the first 2 years which is a little under what he'd make if he played under the tag twice, but would be fully guaranteed which is a fair tradeoff (give a little back to have it guaranteed vs. trying to earn a tag the 2nd year).

And if it doesn't work out you can bail after 2020 and free up the money you'll need to get Mahomes extension worked out. If he HAS played to his contract then you at least have a trade asset if needed.

Ingrams deal would be a perfect template, IMO. Provided he decides he'd take it rather than go into the market looking for a Houston or Von Miller contract that I wouldn't be willing to give him.

Just putting this together in 30 seconds.....but something like this:

Re-sign Ford, Hill and Jones.
Cut Sorenson

Draft

1. Jerry Tillery, DE, Notre Dame
2. Trayvon Mullen, CB, Clemson
2. Taylor Rapp, S, Washington

Would JIMP if Mullen fell that far and we could get Tillery as well.

That would be a pretty perfect draft in terms of needs/talent.

We may not have the cap to do this, but is it possible we do something crazy like sign Earl Thomas or trade for Patrick Peterson?

I know we have a lot of people to pay and the draft is a much cheaper, easier option. But I hope we bring in some proven players too. A lot of vets are on the market that shouldn't cost as much.

Theres just so much damn money out there in free agency, it's tough to get guys on decent deals anymore.

I think one of those things is possible; both are not.

I think trading for Peterson could have happened, and of course Earl Thomas would love to play with Berry. A safety tandem of Thomas and (a healthy) Berry would negate the need for elite corners for a season or two.

Breeland Speaks is a lot like Za’Darius Smith IMO. Same body build, developmental picks. Had traits early that can translate.

I really think Speaks will be a nice rusher next season.

The problem is I'm not confident Berry can stay healthy. If we sign a good safety (not even necessarily Thomas), it could still be a good idea to draft another one in top 3 rounds. Same with corner.

I would even be fine with drafting straight BPA and patching any left over holes with FA's and trades. But obviously we should focus on defense.

I wouldn't go in the draft looking for a certain position. Just set your board and see what happens.

The Chiefs need draft 2 DBs, S or CB in their first 3 picks this year and 2 of 3 on defense next year as well. If they get too many good DBs they can always trade later but until then you work on the defensive talent. Free agency will take care of itself. KC is entering the same area Denver did when they got Manning. Receivers will line up to come and play with PMII and other FAs will want to be a part of the team with a chance. And they won't have to overpay to get them, just reasonable/fair deals and the potential to win a ring.

I just think we're in a different cap era. The market is so insanely flush with cash that a guy like Albert Wilson can get PAID by just hitting the market.

And sure, it's possible that coming here on a 1-year, make good offer can help get a WR paid, but then you end up with roster churn at a position that is extremely difficult to pick up in this offense.

I just don't think it's a good idea washing through wideouts and I think a team with this QB should start treating developmental WRs a little bit like most teams treat developmental QBs and CBs - you could justify drafting one in the later rounds pretty much ever single draft. A 3rd-5th going after a WR with measurables and tools from a run heavy college offense could be brought in seemingly every season and after a year of coaching in this system, you see what you've got.

I get the desire to throw resources at the defense and I certainly can't argue with a tilt in that direction, but I don't think you can just start earmarking 60% of your draft capital towards DBs over the coming years. You just don't know how the board will come together and whether or not that's a good decision.

One thing I loved about Dorsey was his focus on measurables and long windows when it came to DBs. Go get the guy who's measurables compare favorably to this year's 1st day pick but who slipped because he's raw or came out of a small school or left a year early (DAMN YOU FULTON!!!! -- Man that dude was in my wheelhouse before he went back to LSU). Get him in here and give him a year of seasoning to see if you have a guy who's tools can play at this level but with a hell of a lot less organizational capital plowed into him.

Do you feel like Tremon Smith fits that mold?

Maybe I'm insane but I feel like Ford takes a non ridiculous contract.

The dream is Berry takes a restructure and Houston takes an AVV lowering extension which opens up enough cap to open up the FA market a bit more after the Hill and Jones extensions.

I just don't thin Bailey is worth anywhere near the money. I like that he gets pressure occasionally and he's had some big plays this year but I don't think its repeatable, skilled play.

I genuinely think he's marginally above JAG and not worth the money he will get.

I'd love to get a guy like Taylor Rapp at the end of the first round. I'd even trade up a bit to get him.

He's one of the better graded safeties in the country last season, initiates contact with a nasty violence and he missed like 2-3 tackles all year.

Yes in that he's the kind of talent that I think you can/should target every draft.

No in that I think his almost total lack of awareness in his limited game action suggests that he's not one of the steals that you will occasionally stumble into.

That approach is going to yield precisely dick 4 times out of 5, in all likelihood, but it doesn't have to hit often to be hugely beneficial. And I'm not saying cut him because his physical tools say he should get at least one more shot to stick, but he's the kind of guy you are constantly layering. Add another guy just like him next season and give that guy a season or two. Rinse, repeat. Constantly have 1 or 2 guys like that in the chamber to see what they have.

Yeah, I think Smith is exactly that kind of approach, but I don't think he's likely to amount to a ton. C'est la vie - there's little organizational capital invested in him so if you move on from him, you're not really hurt.

I also think most teams wildly underutilize UDFA's. Give me 10 UDFA's over my 5th, 6th and 7th round picks and I'll be happier with the pile of 10 UDFA's that I can comb through more often than not.

I wish I knew how to do a search for UDFA productivity over the last 5 years and compare it to guys drafted at least in the 6th and 7th rounds. The 5th may be a little ambitious but I'm betting there is at least as much production culled from the undrafted ranks every year than there are from those last couple of rounds. Ward vs. Smith is a great example of it.

I'd like to see Smith get a little more run next offseason and preseason to see. It's so damn hard for rookies to make much of an impact when they have technique issues.

Give him an offseason and see what happens.

Same with Speaks, which sucks. I don't think he'll amount to much, but we'll see.

Draft a CB and DL in the draft. Go and get Shane Ray on a hometown deal for depth.

Having not read much of the thread, I really like Justin Hamilton’s potential in this DL rotation

Okay, looks like I've figured it out and messed w/ '18 for a single season of review.

In 2018 there were 84 UDFA rookies who graded out in AV (Pro football reference's composite measurement). They totalled 159 'points' and were led by...well of course you guessed it....Andrew Wylie and his 8. It's not a perfect analysis because Wylie was a rookie but was technically eligible for the 2017 draft. But in either event, he was a UDFA who went undrafted and thus could've been on anyone's roster.

In the 6th and 7th rounds there were 38 rookies who 'scored' and they totaled 67 'points'. If I include the 5th round that's another 29 scoring rookies and 52 points. So from the 2018 draft there were 67 rookies taken in rounds 5-7 who 'scored' via the AV system. They contributed a total of 119 points.

The UDFAs absolutely wreck those numbers.

Seriously, teams wildly under-utilize the UDFA pool and in so doing overvalue their picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds. Punt those picks, use them to move up in the other rounds and simply take those roster spots and allocate them to the 'winners' of the an annual roster competition among a larger pool of UDFA players.

Here's the little stat machine that can figure this out if you want to do it over a number of years.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...psl_finder.cgi

I guess I lean a little heavy to the defense but when you call up Ron Parker at home after and injury or 2 then your talent cupboard is pretty bare. If an exceptional offensive value falls to you great, you take them, but until the Chiefs get past their "31" or "32" era defense that's where I feel they got to get talent. Not a big fan of defensive FA, most of the time 1 team's trash is … another team's trash.

I think you can replace Bailey for less in FA.
I think you need one starting safety, and I'd like it to be a Landon Collins. Also a possibility would be Earl Thomas on a short deal.
I think you can get a replacement for Nelson in FA.
Then I think you draft DL, CB's, S's for development.

The young defenders have shown signs of life recently, which is great to see.

Assuming what we've seen recently means we do not need a total-rebuild on D, then I would try to stay as balanced as possible in drafting. Maybe a little heavier on D, since they churn a little faster anyway (compared with offensive skill guys, or so it seems).

I would probably try draft 4 on D and 3 on O for pretty much every draft, and then use any extra draft picks on D.

Hopefully we do get some value added on offense at the skill positions. I do believe it's true that Patrick & Andy will make some average WR's very rich over the next decade by making them look better than they would be for an average QB.

What’s Colquitt’s contract status? We can better utilize those resources now that we have the QB.

I really think that we need to focus on stopping the run. DL or ILB should be top priority IMO.

Look at our conference. There isn’t a QB that can rationally think that getting in a shootout with Mahomes is a good idea.

Guarantee the Patriots will try to run the ball down our throats on Sunday. If we can limit teams from doing that, they’ll be in major trouble.

It'd be nice if the Chiefs traded Speaks during next year's draft.

I literally ****ing cringe every time that slow fat pos comes onto the field.

Picks, 1-2-2-3 all need to be defense. Preferably two front 7 guys and two DB's....aim for BDPA.

Maybe a swing tackle or backup TE at 4, or hell I wouldn't be opposed to drafting all defense to be honest.

ERFA, still have to tender him. About as close to being "under contract" as you may find but still.

At least one. No other players on this list are really 3-4 DEs. Hamilton can slide out there in a pinch. I'd say you need 2.


If they don't, you end up with 2 players that haven't shown they can be starters and an aging Houston. Don't look good.

Whole lot of meh. I mean, I get it. If you can't significantly upgrade then it's mostly just a depth game. Still wouldn't preclude me from spending an early pick on the spot.


Agreed. Ward looks promising, but we've found out in the past with guys like Cooper and Gaines that promise isn't everything.


Lucas looks promising, but see above and he's an RFA which will require about a $2m tender or a new contract. Watts hasn't proven shit and Sorensen and Murray are mediocre when they are at their best and downright dog shit at their worst. Berry should be cut. You need to get at least one safety in the mix. It may be better that guy be an athletic FS.


I think you're grasping at straws trying to make chicken salad out of chicken shit. This defense still has huge holes that could get bigger depending on what they decide to do with Ford and Berry. You need to at least have starters at CB, DE, and FS, and you should have one at ILB.

I'm seeing several mocks listing Taylor Rapp to us. I feel like we need a minimum of 1 new starter at safety; I assume that Berry will not be available. A corner or 2.

I guess my overall idea is that you should take the best player available without needing to reach for specific positions. I feel a whole lot better about the defensive personnel than I did all season.

I'd still like another DL piece. Nnadi's done well, Jones is a stud. Bailey's maybe slightly above average and kind of expensive. Williams is average. DE or DT.

I wonder if Berry and Houston don't want to restructure if we will end up cutting or trading them? Wouldn't be a good idea without a replacement plan in place, but signing Ford, Hill, and Jones have to be priority.

What do you think is non ridiculous for Ford? I'm kind of mixed on it. Has he proven enough beyond one year to warrant a historic contract? At the same time, this defense especially can't afford to lose it's best players.

Ford and Hill are going to get their money. I just hope that it is something somewhat reasonable. That would help for the flexibility of the future and building on what we have.

They need to just keep stockpiling guys in the front 7. Free agency could yield some depth there and then hit some on the draft.

I really really REALLY think the idea of getting anyone meaningful in free agency ought be just about summarily dismissed.

As has been noted, when we talk about our cap figure for next year that's not even including depth guys like Hamilton, Lucas and Butker who will all get a little bit of it. We're MUCH tighter against the cap than people are discussing if we actually get the extensions put together for guys like Hill and Jones. Common sense and long-term planning says that we really need to get those done and not enter a potential tag situation or end up letting them hit the market outright.

We absolutely have to take care of our own and now's the time to do that. Once that gets done, we're gonna be tight up against the cap and any discussion of guys like Landon Collins is just a complete non-starter unless you're willing to jettison some key part of our younger core or trade off Dee Ford.

The alternative is to simply say "**** it" and push the chips in for 2019. You tag Ford, you let Jones, Hill and Fuller play out their final years at a pittance and you get FAs with low first year figures knowing that their salaries will jump in 2020 and you're simply gonna lose 2, 3 or even all 4 of those guys. It's there. It's a possibility.

But man oh man does it strike me as foolish.

I've resigned myself to the fact that they aren't likely to dip a foot into the big name free agency pool. Maybe a toe, but they've just got too many guys that are gonna get broken off in house.

The only way I can see it is if they are able to get something done with Houston and Berry money wise to save some, but hell, i'm not really even sure if that's possible.

You've also got Schwartz who could ask for a raise.

I think you need to look for guys that are more filler in free agency than actual flash.

Maybe a guy on the tail end of his career or a young guy that just didn't fit where he got drafted.

Shane Ray fits that profile, but if he weren't from MU, I doubt anyone would be that enamored there.

Someone like Mo Wilkerson coming off an injury for a prove it deal could be interesting.

Hard to ask for a raise when you're still 2 years away from FA. If they wanted to give him a 2 year extension to keep him around for 4 years and in so doing give him a signing bonus that creates a year 1 cash bump, it could be done in a largely cap neutral fashion and take care of him for a little while longer. He'd have more money in pocket and we'd have long-term stability there. So you give him a 2 year, $22 million extension w/ a $8 million signing bonus maybe? So that would yield a 4 year, $43 million deal (when his current 2 remaining years at $13 million are added in). You could give him a base salary of $2 million in year 1 then 6, 7 and 8 years 3-4.

So in year 1 he'd get $10 million in salary and signing bonus with a cap hit of $6.8 million (2 million in pro-rated bonus, 2 million in base and 2.8 in accelerated bonus off his previous deal). Years 2-4 would be at 8, 9 and 10 respectively in cap. His cash payments in year 2 would be a slight bump from 6.5 to 7 and his cap figure would be effectively unchanged that year. His next two years would see slightly below market salaries but if we were to guarantee the salary for years 2 and 3, that would provide him incentive to take it.

It's doable and if you were interested, now would be the time given that there's still some risk of age/injury related decline. That said, he just had the best year of his career and he may be more inclined to simply bet on himself.

It's just damn hard for a player to hold out these days with the penalties associated with it. Especially when they don't play a high profile position and have 2 more years left on the deal.

True.

Just based on his social media and his wifes and his brothers, I think he really likes in in KC. Especially now with Mahomes, he seems to really like being with Andy. He's a leader on the offense for sure so I wouldn't be upset keeping him around. He's a stud.

I don't think we have a chance at the younger guys, but someone like Earl Thomas who is a bit older I think we could have a decent chance at.

There are a lot of even older vets out there in FA who we could attract on the cheap. Some productive vets to bolster our defense in the short term could be a good play while we develop our draft picks and make them really earn starting jobs.

Earl will probably get like 3 years 40 mil though. You could fit it in sure, but damn.

I don't like cutting or trading either Berry or Houston (depending on the health outlook for Berry after surgery), In those situations the dead cap is just too large in my opinion. From memory the dead cap on Houston was around $7.5m per year, if you cut him you have $12.5m to spend on a replacement, I don't think you find someone to create his production for $12.5m in free agency.

On Ford, I think a non-ridiculous contract is $13-16m per year average.

Any agent is going to use 2 franchise seasons as the starting point; that's gonna be $16 and $20 million. So you're at $18 million/season right there.

I know many don't trust him and think he's a regression candidate - he may well be. But if we don't tag him and he hits the market, his demand will be HUGE. He may be the most sought after defensive player in all of free agency. His agent knows that and will set his demands accordingly.

If we got him at $16 million in AAV, we'd be damn lucky. I don't see it as being likely but I can still hope...

Earl Thomas is going to run straight for Dallas when he hits FA.

I know you talked about giving Ford an Ingram type deal with an uptick.

Something like 4 years and $70 million?

I think a few mock drafts on here have show you can squeeze a big free agent in and extend Jones and Hill, but resigning Ford sort of counts as that big re-signing.

You're probably creating a situation where you definitely can't touch FA in 2020, but they kind of made that bed when they signed Watkins.

I just made this on Spotrac, this is the roster only re-signing ERFA/RFA but giving Hill and Jones extensions per the recent KCCrow mock - https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tools/ro...4165d70361fb5/

It gives $24m to play with but for that, you need to make a decision on Ford and then make tons of little re-signings like maybe bring Devey back for line depth or Sherman or DAT

Question for DJ I guess - do you let Ford walk if moving to a 4-3?

That's pretty much exactly what I think it would cost and a deal I'd be willing to make. I would be nervous - you can't help but be on long-term deals - but I'd do it and he'd be the throughput for the next generation of Chiefs pass-rushers after 1 last season from Houston in 2019.

I'm all for signing Ford to that deal. Give Hill and Jones new deals and then MAYBE find one or two depth pieces (1 year deals) in FA to help out a couple of spots. Other than that....roll into the draft and improve the team that way.

Barring any major injuries....I think that makes us better than 12-4 next year.

No because he could be used well as a Will linebacker in a 4-3, IMO and frankly we play so much 2-4-5 anyway that it probably doesn't matter. We effectively spend half the game in some version of a 4-3 anyway when we play our 2-4-5 sets and just line Houston and Ford out on wider splits. Then against the Colts we actually played some 4 man fronts with 5 and 6 guys along the line (4 DL and walked Ford/Houston along the edges).

He'd be utilized just fine in a 4-3 but ultimately our OLB use is so fluid that it just may not matter anymore.

What makes me feel better is Andy being able to find damn near anybody on offense and making them fit into his scheme nicely. We’ve seen it so many times. Albert Wilson, Cam Erving, Andrew Wylie, Austin Reiter. Even Bryan Witzmann was decent for awhile.

Really need to keep finding these value players like Ward and Lucas on the defensive side.

We just need to quit failing miserably in high picks like Kareem Hunt, Tanoh Kpassagnon and KeiVarae Russell. Not saying to draft all stars, but just getting a decent return on these guys is so valuable. A complimentary player like Conley, Robinson and Nelson is worth a lot, especially with depth.

And soon enough, Breeland Speaks...

I don't have a problem with a flame out on a 3rd rounder and it's hard to really hold Hunt against anyone. But to speak to a different conversation regarding trade-ups - we missed Josh Jackson by one pick. Boy how nice would having him with a season under his belt be in 2019?

Those last couple of 2nd rounders are just abysmally bad picks, IMO. And that has to be the last of those we see for a bit because you can only whiff on so many of those before you have to go into FA to fill holes. And once you do that, you can't keep as many of the Hill/Jones types around anymore.

I know it's unlikely, but I keep trying to talk myself into the fact that comparisons with tags or other OLB contracts were based on multiple years of performance and Ford doesn't have that. Maybe you offer him $15m per year average now and say take that or risk the tag then maybe he takes the stability, or maybe for some reason he takes a marginal discount to stay in KC.

I would say though that DeMarcus Lawrence is the stand out edge rusher this off season, He's the guy going to get 18-20m AAV for sure

He has the first season on the tag so a 2nd season on the tag starts at $20 million; that leverage will stand tall in negotiations so he'll get a little higher offer because his agent knows that the 'boys will still almost certainly tag him if they have to. They are a defense and running team - they can't let him go.

There were 84 UDFA who graded out. Teams signed an average of about 15 UDFAs. So 1/6 UDFA played enough to even be graded. In the 5th-7th round, there were 118 players taken, of which 67 graded out, roughly 57%.

That means your late round picks are 3.5 times more likely to provide value than an UDFA. That is definitely not worth punting on.

I love Ford, but I have a hard time paying any one player that much outside of Mahomes. I guess I'm fine with it, but it's risky if he falls off or gets hurt and we are stuck with him when all the money is tied up in one player.

That is why I'm not against finding a decent replacement through trade or FA and using the cap to bring back multiple defensive players. That could mitigate the risk and make the defense better overall. If we can keep Ford and not jeopardize the future or depth, that is fine. Just something to consider.

All I know is that we really have to make the most of our cap space while Mahomes is on his rookie contract.

Yeah, the thing the "cap is going up" crew never takes into account is that if the dudes that need to walk walk, they're still going to have to be replaced. And those are going to be replaced. And in the cases of dudes like Nelson, it's going to be with a rookie or for more money.

But yeah, that thread I posted about paying dudes top tier contracts was ****ing eye opening. There are a ****load of dudes making WAAAAAY too much money. I still contend you need to look at it as production per unit salary cap. Ford is making a case. He's stayed healthy all year.

Yeah that didn't pass the sniff test. If you can get those guys in UDFA, take them with the pick. That's not to say I don't disagree with DJLN. I have 0 problems flipping a 5th or less to move up and increase the probability of your guys hitting.

Raw numbers are more critical than ratios with UDFAs because you can just sift through them. You can bring in a slew of those guys; you cite the average but I'm saying that just being average in that regard is under-utilizing the process. That's precisely my point - the denominator can just be made large enough to wash out the ratio.

It's not that they're more likely to hit but rather that they're easier to throw numbers at. You can take your 3 picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th if you want. I'll take those 3 picks, bundle them into a 4th rounder (roughly equal 'draft chart value') and then use the remaining roster spots and practice time to go get UDFA's and sift through that pile to find someone that can be just as productive.

My 4th rounder and spare UDFAs is going to be more likely to contribute than your 5-6-7 rounders IF I'm willing to do the spadework of sifting through that pile and finding someone. And I know that's more difficult than ever given the limits on practice time but I think that's an area where an experienced, excellent coaching staff can be further leveraged to a team's advantage. I think our staff can/should be better at finding the gems in those pools than most and with that being the case, I think we should be more aggressive in pursuing those kinds of guys.

I think we would be foolish not to tag Ford, especially since he appears to be fine playing on it. You would think his agent would be pushing him hard to test the market, because as mentioned earlier there is a ton of FA money and he would get PAID.


I think teams, especially teams like the Chiefs, need to use their FA money to secure players like Hill, Jones, and Ford, and try to find some deals to add depth.

Few days old now, but apparently the Chiefs are unlikely to tag Ford https://www.profootballrumors.com/20...o-tag-dee-ford

The article doesn't specify if that means he's getting a contract or walking.

That 'report' (sigh...it's come to this; baselessly expounding on an uncorroborated tweet is now a 'report' for all intents and purposes) doesn't provide enough context to matter.

Because it doesn't do anything to clear up whether or not that means they're leaning towards negotiating a long-term deal or not.

Does anyone here want to make a bet on whether or not he reaches the open market? Anyone at all? Of course not - because if they can't get him re-signed, there's nobody else to actually use the tag on. And if their plan is to let him walk rather than re-sign him, why on God's green earth would they not tag him and trade him? Because OF COURSE he'll have a market as a trade asset on the tag.

That snippet is just pretty much useless and doesn't make any sense on its face. I am 100% certain they'll either extend him or tag him. There's no way they just let him get to FA and take a 3rd rounder in 2020 as a comp pick in exchange when they can easily get a 2nd and potentially a 1st for him in the upcoming draft.

This thinking is very similar to the Jimmy Johnson approach that built the Cowboy dynasty. And how they found Leon Lett.

The Herschel Walker trade built the Cowboys dynasty.

I'm kind of leaning towards this-

**** FA. Re-sign and extend your playmakers, let guys go that aren't worth their cap # (guys like Sorensen) and draft to re-stock. 2nd tier FA's maybe, to fill spots and compete with the young guys and draftees. Keep the core of the offense intact for the next several seasons and draft defense and o-line.

I'm not sure I'd even limit it to 'playmakers' though it tends to work out the same way. Right now I like to look at guys who are simply a little unique.

For instance, Houston is a great player who's been huge for us in this run...but he's not truly a unique guy at this stage in his career. Meanwhile Dee Ford has a first step and get off that nobody in the league really has.

Sammy Watkins is a very good player when healthy but he doesn't have a standout tool; he's just very good in many ways. Meanwhile Tyreek Hill has Tyreek Hill speed.

Chris Jones isn't exactly unique because he exists in a world where Aaron Donald is a thing. But without Aaron Donald, Chris Jones would be something of a unicorn in his own right.

Target those guys who present novel matchup problems first. Get them extended and then look at how you keep the guys who do the same things as everyone else but maybe a little bit better (Fuller, Watkins, Houston, Berry). You'll be able to keep some of those guys still, but not all of them. The guys to make sure you do not lose are the ones that just create uniquely difficult matchups by virtue of some standout skill, IMO.

That's good in theory. And I'm totally down with not paying high ****ing dollar free agents. Man, there is real money being spent on either shit or no production. But relying on FA's for production is going to happen, like it or not - there is just too much turnover to not.

But like I keep saying, it comes down to production per unit Salary Cap.

I look back at the Sean Smith contract, and he was definitely worth 5.5 per. Is Josh Norman worth 15? I'd say resoundingly no. Even further down the list, is Talib worth 10? I'm thinking not.

I'd rather get 3 Sean Smtih's than 1 Josh Norman, even if you drafted Norman.

And drafting is super important because those are by far the cheapest dollars and any production at all is a huge value. But being smart with non-rookie deal money is the most important thing here. Whether you drafted them or not.

That's how the Patriots have remained successful; they do a very good job of getting good production out of cheaper players.

Marcus Cannon, Julian Edelman, Kyle VanNoy, Adrian Clayborn, Cordarelle Patterson, Patrick Chung, etc...

Lots of guys that were either relatively low investment retentions or scrap heap FA veterans that they have gotten value out of. None of them are difference makers but they're guys that can help you win ballgames and cost very little of your overall cap.

Granted, it's easier to do that when you have an excellent head coach that can put those guys in positions to succeed, but that's just another way you can leverage that competitive advantage.

Oh I agree the "report" was trash.

On the tag and trade point, maybe I'm just thinking how I would feel as the player but I'm just not sure it's that likely. From the players point of view, you're just limiting their market which limits their contract potentially - I don't think I'd be signing a tag until well after the draft if I was a player.

Have there been many tag and trades in the last few years that I am forgetting?

Agree. There are a couple free agents that will likely be available this year that I think would fit on a relatively cheap deal. I really like the idea of picking up Jets DB Darryl Roberts the more I've thought about it. He's a guy that can play CB and FS and really has stepped up the past couple seasons. If the Chargers let Adrian Phillips get away, he's a guy I'd look at too.

Throwing this in here rather than starting a new thread, PFF did a mock draft and noted how Hitchens was the WORST graded ILB in their system this season, and drafted Devin Bush, ILB at the back of the 1st.

I'm not familiar with Bush, anyone have any opinions? 1st round graded talent? Good fit for the Chiefs?