*****Trade analysis superthread 2013*****
 

I figured we may as well have a big thread for trade advice as it will likely get lost in the repository thread.

I just got offered a trade which I'm not a huge fan of but was intrigued enough to ask around. I won't tell you which side is mine to keep you impartial.

Team 1: Montee Ball, Torrey Smith
Team 2: Eddie Lacy, Cecil Shorts

What do you guys think?

Ball and Torrey easy for me.

^

Lacy is coming on strong as a 2nd round pick. Shorts, while not having name recognition, should put together a solid year. I would rather have those two, honestly.

Ball is going to start for Denver

But how many touches will he get? Seems like the Broncos have a pass heavy offense.

It is a PPR league btw.

this

I think Lacy has a better chance of getting more touches. Ball is gonna lose some carries to Hillman and Manning audibles.

But I don't care for Cecil Shorts much. Guys like him will be on the waiver wire all year.

This is kind of my view as well. WR is much deeper than RB in my mind which causes me to overvalue RB's as compared to WR's.

Giving up possible RB production is a much bigger deal than gaining some WR production.

It is a close one but with Lacy as my #17 RB and Shorts as the #25 WR I would take that tandem over Ball (#30 RB) and T. Smith (#18 WR)

Need to see the rest of your team before I can decide.

You won't get points if he catches a pass or two?

Team 1:

QB: Matt Ryan, Eli Manning
WR: Danny Amendola, Marques Colston, Michael Floyd, Chris Givens, Cecil Shorts
RB: Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, David Wilson
TE: Jason Witten, Rob Housler
K: Alex Henery
DEF: Patriots, Giants

Team 2:

QB: Aaron Rodgers
WR: Victor Cruz, Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, T.Y. Hilton, Kenbrell Thompkins
RB: Steven Jackson, Doug Martin, Montee Ball, Ben Tate, Shane Vereen
TE: Jared Cook, Rob Gronkowski
K: Caleb Sturgis, Rob Bironas
DEF: Cardinals

Yes, but I'd imagine that both Ball and Lacy will get some targets in the passing game.

Standard league, I was offered Bowe for Reggie Wayne. Leaning toward taking it...

I don't understand why Team 1 would make that trade. Not really improving the roster.

I think I'd take it as well. I know Wayne surged again last year but he's old and bound to regress. Smith doesn't have a whole lot of targets available.

I've decided to turn down the offer. Seemed to be people falling on each side of the aisle but I agree with this statement.

I'm Team 1, btw.

I have an embarrassment of riches at the RB position (Charles, Spiller, Bush, and Miller in a 1/2 ppr) and only Greg Olsen as TE.

Would you consider this a good trade:

Greg Olsen + Lamar Miller for Witten (+ Fasano)?

I already offered to someone else:

Greg Olsen + Lamar Miller for Gronkowski (+ some scrub), which I don't expect to happen in preseason. Maybe once Lamar proves some people wrong and if Olsen has a good start to the season.

I'm really set at QB, WR, and RB, but want to improve my TE. Or is the non-sexy Greg Olsen better than any of those offers?

(Oh, we only start 2 RB's with an open-flex position which will be occupied by my 2nd QB)

I'd take that Witten deal in a heartbeat. Two RB's with a good backup in a PPR league should be plenty. You're looking at an extra 40-50 receptions from Witten over Olsen.

Olsen is going to be Newton's #2 target in the passing game. I'd stick with him and keep your awesome RB depth.

Sounds like the internal battle in my head....

Any other votes?

So, I was just proposed a straight-up trade: <b>Gronkowski for my backup Reggie Bush</b>.

I think Bush is up for a monster year (at least pass-catching), but he is my backup for Spiller and Charles and I still have Lamar Miller in the wings.

It lets me keep Greg Olsen though, which really should be a very good 1-2 TE combination, and should make me stronger in the playoffs.

Assuming Gronk is taken off the PUP list tomorrow, what do you think?

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I lean toward doing it since it gives me a large upgrade on the TE position, even if most lists have Bush about 5-10 ranks ahead of Gronk on the list of all ranked projected fantasy players.

I think bush has a better year than spiller.

His inability to run very well in the preseason, even against vanilla schemes, is a little worrisome though. I think Bush becomes much more of a pass catcher and adds very little on the ground. Which means defenses start to put someone on him, since he will likely be the #2 target behind Megatron. And Bush having to catch with someone on him... I think that becomes problematic quick.

You drafted 2 kickers because???

Assuming its non-ppr I'd rather have Gronk than Bush, and I like Bush a lot.

Yeah, it's 1/2 PPR. I pulled the trigger on the deal. To upgrade from Olsen to Gronk and only lose Bush, who likely would have been on my bench mostly, was too big of a positive.

I can suffer through with Olsen (as was my previous plan anyway) until Gronk can come back and hopefully dominate like he has historically.

I like Bush alot as well.. but the chance to improve my starters was too great to pass up.

Well..since I'm the team with one kicker I wouldn't be able to tell you. :)

Apologies, thought you drafted 2 teams

Trying to figure out a trade to land my handcuff Ben Tate. I need some help. 12 team PPR.

My team:
SLOT PLAYER, TEAM POS ACQ
QB Andrew Luck, Ind*QB Draft
RB Arian Foster, Hou*RB**P Draft
WR Randall Cobb, GB*WR**P Draft
TE Jordan Cameron, Cle*TE**P Draft
FLEX Reggie Bush, Det*RB Draft
FLEX Victor Cruz, NYG*WR**P Draft
D/ST Ravens D/ST*D/ST Draft
K Randy Bullock, Hou*K Free Agency
Bench Giovani Bernard, Cin*RB Draft
Bench Vincent Brown, SD*WR Draft
Bench Greg Jennings, Min*WR Draft
Bench Ryan Mathews, SD*RB Draft
Bench Denarius Moore, Oak*WR Draft
Bench Emmanuel Sanders, Pit*WR Draft
IR Percy Harvin*, Sea*WR**O Draft

His team:
QB Peyton Manning, Den*QB Draft
RB Chris Johnson, Ten*RB Draft
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC*WR Draft
TE Jermichael Finley, GB*TE Draft
FLEX DeSean Jackson, Phi*WR Draft
FLEX Trent Richardson, Cle*RB Draft
D/ST Rams D/ST*D/ST Draft
K David Akers, Det*K Draft
Bench Dwayne Allen, Ind*TE**P Draft
Bench Santonio Holmes, NYJ*WR**Q Draft
Bench Daryl Richardson, StL*RB Draft
Bench Alex Smith, KC*QB Draft
Bench Torrey Smith, Bal*WR**P Draft
Bench Ben Tate, Hou*RB Draft
IR *

Well, he's only got four RBs, so you are likely going to have to trade one back to him. So, your best bet is going to be a WR/RB - WR/RB trade most likely.

I think you are looking pretty good on RB's though. Other than maybe the start of the season, I think the fear for Foster this year is that he will have a nagging injury and may be run down a bit. (His ypc have consistently fallen.) The end result of that is instead of Foster dominating the carries, he may end up with a 60% - 40% time share with Tate. In that scenario, having Tate doesn't really help you that much.

How the hell do you get Charles, Spiller, and Bush in a ppr league?

Agree. Even if Foster goes down will you be starting Tate over your current backup RBs?

BINGO !!:thumb:

Ball isn't a 'take it to the house guy' and hasn't shown anything special so far and Denver's O-line is suspect like ours in the run game.

I get your thinking here BUT Wayne will still out produce Bowe IMO because Smith won't have an O-line to protect him because our interior O-line sucks and Bowe goes back to his ADD hands this year IMHO. Luck is still young and he will still rely on that great chemistry he has with Wayne and I see Luck being a top 5 fantasy QB this year !!

AGREED. DO IT NOW !!!

Witten is Romo's BINKY at all times and rarely gets hurt. Hell he came back last year before he was actually ready and still produced. Tough as hell.

At the beginning of every season everyone's team seems very salty because it is on paper. Paper and reality are two different worlds. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer here with all due respect but.....

1. Our interior O-line better get better quickly IF Charles is to have a good to great year. Initially he will only be good out of the backfield and at the WR/Slot positions IMHO and then once opposing D's realize our interior O-line sucks they will start to game for Charles out of the backfield/slot positions and take that away as well.

2. Spiller - injury risk, inconsistent and he plays for the Bills who have QB drama going on which means teams will stack the box until their QB play gets better.

3. Bush - HIGH injury risk and plays behind an O-line that is just about as bad as our interior O-line which means teams will do the same to the Dolphins as they do to the Chiefs. See point 1.

4. Miller - see point 1 without the injury risk.

I'm not a fan of Jennings,Mathews or Bush because of HIGH injury risk and Ponder is throwing to Jennings. Ponder ain't no Aaron Rodgers.

Offer him Jennings and either Bush/Mathews for Smith/Tate and see if he will bite on the big name factor !!

Just based on PPR rankings, I'm giving up way to much in either deal. No way u give up Bush who is being drafted in round 2 or 3, or Mathews who's ranked around 50, and Jennings for Tate and Smith. I realize Tate has more value to me due to my having Foster and if Foster suffers injury his value skyrockets, but as it stands now, that's a lot to give up.

No, I said Jennings and either Bush or Mathews not both Bush and Mathews.

But on a more serious note. PPR rankings ? Seriously ?? You are going by somebody's so-called projected analysis numbers and where they are supposedly suppose to rank this year and not their real past history ?

Here is just small micro-example of how wrong and inaccurate a lot of these so-called projected analysis/value rankings(magazines/so-called expersts) can be. Remember the big Darren McFadden craze just recently when everyone and their brother said THIS was his breakout year and he would just absolutely TEAR IT UP ?? Almost every ranking had him top 5 RB if not higher that year. What happened ? McFadden got injured. They are to some degree doing this to Bush this year and they(so-called experts) have always had a 'woody' for Mathews as well waiting for his so called break out year. Won't happen for either one of these guys because their 'real history' say's INJURY PRONE to the point of not drafting from my perspective. Jennings has been VERY injury prone in the last 3yrs and is in the latter stages of his career while Ponder is throwing to him. The so-called experts do this every year by PIMPING UP a select few so-called BIG NAMES that have NEVER produced big fantasy numbers 'consistently' in their careers due to their 'consistent injuries' every year. Jennings,Mathews and Bush are walking injuries !!!

Honestly DO YOUR OWN RANKINGS/RESEARCH based on REAL HISTORICAL EVIDENCE FIRST and then your fantasy draft and play will improve.

Here's a tip. Never fall in love with the BIG NAME alone. The consistent production and very little injury history MUST BE PRESENT to warrant a draft pick IMO. If you do risk it better be in the very late rounds. A lot of the times the BIG NAME does match up with the consistent BIG PLAY and a lot of the times the BIG NAME is just that and no more. The wise analyst can see the difference.

Nothing personal here just trying to help BUT I think you are 'that guy' that automatically loves the BIG NAME without looking at the 'real evidence'.

Got offered Doug Martin, Nicks, Steve Smith and Britt for Ridley, Steven Jax, Pierre Garçon and Josh Gordon. I have Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw as backups but I think I'm declining this. I love my RB depth and Garçon.

Let's do the Ben Franklin Pro/Con analysis and then you can decide for yourself.

Here is my pro/con analysis of your situation FWIW:

Doug Martin=Good-will get a lot of carries because Schiano like to run and that is Schiano's boy he picked and that division is weak against the run IMO.

Nicks=Fair-only because he is getting injured more often and Manning and his offense have a bad tendency these past few years to go in 'FUNKS" for weeks at a time which YOU cannot afford BUT when their O is on Nicks and Cruz really cruise! I wish you had Cruz instead of Nicks here if you are dealing with Manning because he targets Cruz more.

Steve Smith=Fair-I'm not a Newton fan and since Newton has become the Panthers QB, Smith's production is not what it used to be. Yes he is the only NO.1 target BUT defenses know this and double him now thus the reason for less production. If Cam were more mature and had a legit No.2 I would say Smith goes from 'fair' to 'good' !!

Britt=Good-flat out playmaker regardless of his 5 cent head off the field. When he is on the field he balls !! Locker has finally realized how good Britt is and will target him even more. Having CJ as his teammate only helps his production.

Ridley=Fair-Ridley is tearing it up in pre-season and looks to be 'the guy'. But when since Corey Dillion has Bellichek every gone with 'the one guy' at RB ??? There you go. Don't get me wrong I like how Ridley runs be he does not get enough touches for me because of Bellichek.

Steven Jackson=Fair-he will not get enough touches as well in this RBBC approach either. The only thing you can hope for is that since he is in a weak Run D division as well that he gets all the goal line touches. Rogers is on the rise and will get more touches and this Vaughn kid is a young Michael Turner. Of those 3 backs I would want Rogers for now.

Pierre Garcon=Good- Both RGIII and Cousins trust this guy and he should produce and Shanahan loves this guy. And if Shanny loves you, you will get targeted.

Josh Gordon=Good- I want to give this player an 'excellent' rating but I don't quite trust Weeden just yet. I love this kid's balling ability. He is like watching a man among boys competing for the ball and making big plays.

Trent Richardson=tentative Good- I think Jim Brown was right saying that TR is soft and so far it is proving true. Yes he can be a playmaker and he will get the touches but can he stay healthy ?

Ahmad Bradshaw=Fair-yes he is a playmaker but hell he has missed all of the pre-season because of injuries and he has consistently shown since day one of his career that he is highly injury prone. I like the way that he runs but I'm not falling for the big name either.

There you have it !! You decide !

Pretty solid analysis, but I think Steven Jackson is going to have a monster year. Terrible defensive division, playing with a ton of playmakers, gets all the goal line carries. I don't think he's going to be part of any committee in Atlanta.

This is what you hope for in Jackson and that he stays healthy because he is older and has been consistently injured these past few years. Rogers gets more carries every year and this is his 3rd and why I think he will split carries with Jackson between the 20's by mid-season IMO. But maybe Jackson will get the majority of carries and he stays healthy.

Last trade offer I received was DeMariyus Thomas/Tyler Eifert for Brent Celek/Stevan Ridley.

I have Richardson, Ridley and Jackson as my starting 3 (2 RBs/Flex) and Colston/Garcon as my starting WRs.

Stick with Ridley.

I agree.

URGENT QUESTION!

I traded Gore for Charles. Should I try and unload Bowe???

Depends on your other Wrs and what you can get for him.

I've got Cobb, Amendola, Lance Moore, Nate Washington, and Justin Blackmon.

I guess the question is, is it a bad idea to have Charles AND Bowe? Or should I look to diversify?

I've had multiples on the same team on the past. (Although it was a qb/we combo). The boom is great and usually nets victories. Unfortunately, the bust weeks suck and have screwed me over in playoff weeks.

I actually took this trade. However, I didn't read the website rules and all Thursday night players involved trades had to be accepted by 7 EST on Wednesday or the trade would be removed and could be re-submitted on Tuesday.

Well I take the trade at 7:11 and the next night, the trade is removed.

The owner, after proposing this deal to me and having it accepted, is now telling me he's going to hang on to Thomas.

I told him good, he can rot with Robert Turbin as his #2. Yes, Robert Turbin is his 2nd back. It just pisses me off that he agreed to the deal and should be forced to uphold that unless Ridley gets hurt or something.

Thig my man, there is so much unknown right now with our Chiefs O. New Coach, new QB, new Offense, interior O-line sucking ass, defenses will double up on Bowe until we can prove we have a legit No.2 WR. Our interior O-line can't even allow Smith to get to a 5 step drop let alone open up holes for Charles to run between the tackles. I think you have the better of the 2 Chief players in Charles who will get more touches and I would unload Bowe now while you can get some serious playmaker or playmakers for him IF you can or you can hold on to him and see if he pans out and if he starts to pan somewhat but you don't trust him long term then trade him before his production falls off.

Totally get your point, but put yourself in his shoes, the rules then save your ass from losing a potentially big WR for you. Do you really blame him ?

If you agreed to a trade on the site, and it was posted on the site, an couple minute technicality should not get you out of a trade that was fair, and that you agreed to just because one player had a big game.

I could see if it was verbally agreed to and not posted. But it was offered to me, and accepted. I took Ridley over Thomas in this draft, so I obviously value Ridley but did not think I'd be able to build the RB depth I did.

He has no other trade partners. The best offer he said he got for Thomas was Chris Ivory.

But now he can screw himself. Unless Ridley got hurt, he should be obligated to complete the trade by the neutral commish who just manages the league and does not participate. But since that won't happen, I'm not doing business with a ****ing weasel.

I hope Ridley goes off tomorrow so I can laugh.

I see why now. You have every right to be upset:mad:

Should i use my waiver claim on Terrel Pryor as my backup QB?

I start Newton and have Sam Bradford as my backup.

Should I trade Welker straight up for L. McCoy? Its a 3wr, 2rb, 1flx PPR league and I'm stacked at WR (Wayne, Bowe, Nelson, D. Jackson, Sanders, Thompkins) but weak at RB (Bush, Sproles, Bernard, and Miller).

I hate to lose Welker's upside, but I can match his point totals from one of the back ups. McCoy would start at Flex, pushing Bowe to the bench. Not a bad back up.

The other guy has P. Manning, which is why the trade is being discussed.

Just got offered Luck and Lamar Miller for either Jamaal Charles or Doug Martin. That would give me RBs of Charles/Martin, Lacy and Miller. My QBs would be Romo and Luck.

What do you think? Stick with Romo, Charles, Martin and Lacy?

The latter, definitely.

Didnt see this thread earlier.........

Got offered Calvin Johnson and Hakeem Nicks for Dez Bryant and Cobb......

Thoughts?

McCoy is going to finish as the 2nd best fantasy RB behind AP.

Do it.

I wouldn't do it, unless you are worried about Dez's health

I got Mccoy 7th in my draft, I felt like i won the damn lottery when he fell that far.

Give up Chris Johnson and receive Alfred Morris. Yes or no?

I would. Not a Johnson fan and the Titans will eventually stall and then fall.

Damn straight you did and KEEP HIM until the defenses in the league start to make adjustments to Kelly's O and until that happens which may not even be this year McCoy assuming he stays healthy will make you wealthy !!!:D

NO !

NO ! Stay with who you have !:thumb:

Miller has a sucky O-line and something tells me that Luck won't be as effective stat wise this year as he was last meaning he does have good WRs and himself but that's it ! He has a suck O-line as well which means he will be rushing passes. When Oakland can damn near beat you at home on opening day that is NOT a good sign.

Might not be a bad idea and I would keep Bradford and dump Newton. Terrell is a cheap version of RGIII IMO and could give you some big games because everyone will take Oakland lightly this year and Oakland has nothing to lose knowing they will lose most of their games so they will play balls to the wall for a guy they like in Pryor and sneak up on a few teams IMO.

AP had one big run of 78 yds. The other 17 attempts he actually lost a yard with a total rushing amount of 77yds. Defenses will really stack the box big time against him until Ponder proves he is a passing threat.

I get your point, but he won't do this year what he did last year IMO. I see him between 1400-1600 at best this year which is still very good.

Tough one. However, McCoy will get a tad more touches and the way Kelly runs this O it is hard to just focus on McCoy and neutralize him so I see him continuing to have big games. Manning's boy is Welker and he will run that well dry and I trust Manning's targeting him.

Stay with Welker I say until you see Shady continue his success then do the deal. Also see if you can pick up J Bell the handcuff RB to Bush. Bush is already hurting even after a good game and it's just a matter of time IMO until Bush pusses out with injuries.

My starting QB is Romo. I've been trying to get Kaepernick off this owner for a week now. Guy has Peyton Manning too so he has to move Kaep.

He offered me Kaep for Vernon Davis today. My backup TE is Brent Celek.

I'm debating taking it and then flipping Romo for a WR.

Thoughts?

What's the best TE available off the wires?

I would probably do that Kaep for Davis deal, but Davis is likely going to be pretty legit this year. Like top 5 legit.

I would do it. It looks like Celek is going to get a lot of looks in this offense.

Really no one I could try to get Brandon Myers included but doubt he would do it.

I just got offered Tavon Austin and Cecil Shorts for my Wes Welker. Don't think Ill go ahead with this one.

Would u give up Ryan Mathews to get roddy white, even with the high ankle sprain?