NYT 2018 playoff simulator is up and running
 

I know people like running scenarios with this thing (or at least I do). It's not particularly exciting with regard to scenarios where the Chiefs just make the playoffs (spoiler alert: I like our chances), but you can look at our chances for HFA, getting a bye, etc.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ture.html?_r=0

It seems like they lag a bit when updating games each week, so here's the current look at our chances of HFA.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...in&event=seed1

Currently, they're showing us as a 66% chance to get HFA and an 81% chance to get a bye. The biggest games remaining on the schedule is, by far, the game against the Chargers. If we win that one, our chances jump to 79%. If we lose, they drop to 45%. Aside from that, it's pretty obvious stuff. Patriots lose = good. Chargers lose = good.

67% chance of HFA throughout? I'll take it!

I'd feel a lot better if the CHargers would drop a game or two. They still have Pitt.

it wont let me look at the page asking for money

Another pretty amusing scenario: if we were to lose every game from here until the end of the season, we still have a 68% chance of making the playoffs. Reid should just tank the season and rest our starters for 6 weeks so that we can blast through everyone in the playoffs completely fresh. :)

As long as the Chiefs take care of their own business, it doesn't matter what these other losers do. But Saints still play Pitt, Pitt plays SD and NE as well. So Pitt beats SD and NE and loses to Saints would be nice. But, as I said, take care of business it doesn't matter what these other teams do.

If the Chiefs win in Mexico City, we pretty much clinch HFA IMO.

Good news is Chiefs control their own destiny.

If they handle their remaining AFC opponents, they should end up the #1 seed.
I can’t see Pittsburgh, New England or the Chargers running the table.
Getting LDT, Morse and Berry back in time for playoffs could be a windfall.

The Chargers aren't winning at Arrowhead.

yup, however, the Chargers concern me some.
They are playing well.

Andy Reid owns them. The Chiefs own them. Arrowhead owns them. They have to come to KC on a short week. The Chargers won't win at Arrowhead.

:thumb:

If they beat the Rams, it's 83% chance for #1 seed, even w/2 losses. W/1 loss it goes to 99%.

I don't think so, but I also don't want to have to play that as an essential single game for HFA.