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The team is not set up great for 2021.
Three pre-rebuttals out of the way:
1. We should just focus on 2020. Why worry about 2021? A. There’s nothing wrong with looking ahead. B. There’s also nothing with focusing on just the upcoming season either. But GMs and teams don’t approach team building that way and neither do some fans. C. The goal, one assumes, is to become a dynasty. This team looks great for 2020, but the forecast in 2021 is trickier. 2. We have Mahomes, we good. A. Mahomes alone ensures that we’re going to be really good. Our goal is more ambitious than being really good. B. The Packers have Rodgers. The Saints have Brees. Hell, the Colts had Manning. You need a full team to win. 3. In Reid & Veach I trust. A. Me too, mostly. But see 1A above. B. If that is the extent to which you currently care about 2021 and beyond, that’s perfectly fine. This forum is generally for looking ahead. The current outlook for 2021: Lots of holes, minimal cap space. This team is signing Jones and Mahomes, and that’s going to zap our ability of making anything but low-grade splashes in free agency. This is something the AP Lab mentioned yesterday, and I have been suspecting. They said they understand “running it back” and going for back to back Super Bowls, but the goal has seemed to be a dynasty, and if that’s the case, we’re not set up great for 2021. There’s not going to be a ton of cap space in 2021 after we ink Jones & Mahomes. We’re going to have huge holes at linebacker (at least one starter, two if we cut Hitch), DE (Clark and Okafor remain under contract, but only Speaks and Danna are behind them, CB (Ward, Sneed, Fenton, BoPete is our depth there), and Sorensen will walk so we’ll need a third safety. We also continue to have zero depth behind Kelce and our WR corps is going to be skeletal. I do think our OL is built well though. Allegretti and Darryl Williams give us options at center should we let Reiter walk. Wylie, Rankins, and LDT body out the guards while Niang, Fisher, and Schwartz body out the tackles. DT is solid with Jones, Nnadi, and Saunders. S needs depth but is solid. QB/RB is good. Special teams will be set. What is your early prognostication for filling our ostensible 2021 holes? |
My opinion is we're still in dynasty mode in 2021. We're in dynasty mode as long as Mahomes is our starting QB. There will be some seasons in which we see downgrades of talent at certain positions. It's just going to happen. In many cases we'll be going into a season thinking we downgraded, when it reality we just got younger and cheaper at the position.
All teams will have to rely on these options going into any season. Hell, a center is pretty crucial to an OL's stability, and we flat out let that guy walk and gave the job to to Austin Reiter all because he was cheap. He had a tiny bit of experience coming in, but not much, and his injury history wasn't all that promising. And he wasn't the greatest C in the world, but we did win a Super Bowl with him. That's going to have to happen. With any team. Any year. And just about any position. How many times has Tom Brady had a reduction of talent on paper going into the season? Just about every damn season. If Mahomes is truly great, he'll overcome it and give us some great seasons of football. We won't win the Super Bowl every year. We're probably going to see one of these pieces of our Super Bowl core walk away after 2020. Probably multiple pieces. That's okay. The point is that with Mahomes, any given year is a possibility to win a Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers hasn't been back to the Super Bowl, but how many conference championship games has he played in? Tons. That's called challenging for the Super Bowl. In some cases luck just wasn't on his side. In other cases those Green Bay teams overachieved just to get to that championship game in the first place. The good news is Andy Reid >>>> Mike McCarthy, and Brett Veach is barely 40 years old-- he's not a senile old man like Ted Thompson was. |
:rolleyes:
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Yeah, I think they went a little too hard into the 'run it back' thing w/ the return of Watkins and LDT.
They needed to take a bit of a hit this year to clear the cap space and if needed, have it rolled into next year. It also would've sped up the development clock on Hardman. I get it - back to back puts you into a whole new tier of history. Lots of teams have won it once but winning it twice (with a young QB) puts you on a potential 'team of the 20s' path and that's just awfully intoxicating. You figure you get your back to back and worry about the rest later. It's a damn tempting proposition and maybe time will tell us it's the right one. I just think they get diminishing returns on Sammy and LDT here. And I still think they should've just bitten the bullet on Hitchens this season to free up his salary slot outright in 2021 (as opposed to likely carrying dead money for him next year). Though if Niang turns into a starting quality OL, you will have probably needed to use the pick you used on him to replace Hitchens with someone like Malik Harrison. Sorensen's another inflated salary and $4 million or so we'd probably like to have in our pockets next season. Maybe that's just too much turnover. But some of the decisions being made right now are going to make 2021 and beyond REAL tough to deal with. |
A couple thoughts.
1. I have no problem looking ahead. However, things happen and change every season. So I'm not going to spend much time worrying about things you just can't control. 2. One word you failed to mention: DRAFT. If we continue to draft well and the cap continues to increase we will be fine. 3. I think the Chiefs ability to begin to address the offensive line in the 2020 draft provided some relief in future drafts, making it easier to target LB, WR, TE positions higher in the draft. 4. Veach has done a great job filling holes with cheap quality vets, that will continue. |
We should have 7 picks in the first 5 rounds next year...
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Yeah - maybe a 4th and a 5th from that pair. If you get one guy who contributes in a meaningful way by week 10 of his 2nd year, you're doing pretty well with those 2 picks. If Fenton becomes the rule rather than the exception, we'll win the championship 5 times in the next decade - at least. I just don't think you can go expecting that kind of immediate help from 3rd day picks. And we're talking 2021 specifically here so the comp picks are long-shots at best to help much by then. |
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Let us not forget how PHENOMENAL Brett Favre was at his peak, which was a good ten years. Peyton Manning is probably the best quarterback I’ve ever seen, talent-wise. Dan Marino was Next Level amazing. The right QB isn’t enough. You need to construct a great system manned expertly. Brady had spare parts on offense for many years but he also had great defenses. I think you’re on surer footing when you argue Reid/Veach is a better HC/GM combo than any of the above QBs had, but even then we can’t fully vouch for Veach yet. Our sample size with him is two years, and one of those years (2018) was pretty damn bad. |
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2. Let us not forget we’ve drafted well exactly one year so far. The 2018 draft was an abomination. 2019 looks pretty great, but let’s not pat backs just yet on 2020. You’re correct, though, because with the cap space we’re NOT going to have in the Mahomes era, nailing the draft is going to be absolutely necessary if we ever want to win another SB. 3. Agreed. 4. This has only been true, really, for one offseason. |
Also, I think sometimes fans fail to account for change the way coaches do.
Pat may not always have the explosive weapons he does at WR. He might have some dud years at WR. Well, now he's got a Westbrook/Kamara type RB to balance things out. That's certainly going to mean a different look and feel to the offense, but it can still be effective and explosive and win us Super Bowls. The team isn't always going to be built the same, and that's based entirely on what we have available for our personnel. So just because we lose Watkins and Robinson next year is no reason to panic. Yeah, we should keep drafting and searching for talent at WR, but if we just trust in Reid and this incredible offensive coaching staff, we'll certainly have enough. |
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One thing is clear, this isn’t the Packers or Seahawks. We draft a lot better than those teams do/did and our QB is better too. For however long Reid sticks around our HC is too.
As long as we have the three headed monster of Reid/Veach/Mahomes, we will be fine. Does that mean we will win 5 straight SB’s? No, but we will always be in the mix as long as Mahomes is healthy. Shit, it’s easy to forget about Spags too, but the longer he sticks around just makes me even more confident. |
As long as we have Patrick Mahomes + Tyreek Hill + CEH we will be ok.
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You're saying we need to use Green Bay as a cautionary tale, but think about this: They've had two losing seasons since they won the Super Bowl in 2010. They've been to three NFC Championship games (not counting their Super Bowl season) and been a part of some bullshit bad luck games that should have taken them to an NFC Championship game instead of losing in the divisional. There are no Super Bowls in that span, but it's CONSISTENT winning. They've been in contention to go to the Super Bowl each and every year. They've been buying lottery tickets each year, and just a little nudge of luck in any of those seasons is all it would have taken to actually put them over the top. And that's with them being a cautionary tale about how not to waste the career of a franchise QB. They gave big extensions to their weapons Jordy, Cobb, Jennings (briefly) and paid for the essentials like a premier passrusher (Clay Matthews) and bookend tackles. With the exception of last year, their defenses are what killed them each and every time. They finally addressed that by spending money on that side of the damn ball. If ****ing up got them a minimum of 3 conference championship appearances in 10 years with Aaron Rodgers, and we have a GM who DOES spend money on defense, doesn't it seem likely that would be enough to punch through where Green Bay came up short? |
Young talent that could develop into quality starters:
CEH Hardman Gay Thornhill Saunders Niang Sneed Rankin And to a lesser extent: Fenton Keyes Speaks Danna Plus another 1,2,3,4,4,5,5,6 next year? With this core likely still together: Mahomes Hill Kelce Fisher Schwartz Clark Jones Mathieu Ward Nnadi It’s not nearly as bad as you are making it seem because it’s still very early in a lot of those guys development or we haven’t seen them at all. At this point, you have to have faith in your coaching staff on both sides of the ball to develop all of that young talent and Veach to continue to fine guys like Breeland, Pennel, Wis, Wilson etc. |
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We just have to constantly remind ourselves that Pat Mahomes is likely to helm 3 or 4 different 'baseline' iterations of teams. The window on this team - we'll call it Mahomes 1.0 - is probably 2-3 more seasons. The team with Kelce, Hill, Fisher, Schwartz and HB is his first 'window'. 3-4 seasons from now would you be surprised at all if Hill's the only guy left from that group? It's not a given, but it's a possibility. Clark's likely nearing the end of his dominant phase and Jones could be as well. As fans we're just not accustomed to a 10 year throughput from a dominant offensive player. As such, we focus on how this iteration stays together. But the bottom line is that Manning, Brady, Favre, Rodgers, Marino - all those 'greats' who dominated for a decade did so with vastly different teams at various points throughout their career. So, too, will Mahomes. That's why I argue so strenuously against drafting for need. EVERYTHING is a need by the end of a rookie contract. Niang appears to be a luxury item right now but if he proves to be a starting caliber tackle, by that 4th year of his deal he'll be starting at tackle somewhere on this roster. Safety and TE are the guys who we struggle to see as need positions in the next 4 years but history tells us that HB and Kelce will be nearing their endpoints as premier options in the next 2-3 seasons as well. Maybe they're outliers like TG and Ed Reed...but you can't build a team based on that. In other words, you read the OP, shrug your shoulders and go "Yeah - and...?" That's just the way of it in the NFL. Adapt or die. |
As long as Reid,Veach, Spags and Pat are running this, we have no need to worry. These guys know what they are doing and together they are the best staff in the league.
Yes Veach did not have a good 2018 draft, but I think the last 2 drafts prove that coaching matters just as much off the field as it does on. I’m not trying to go full homer here, but I think it’s completely fair to say that CEH will ball out. I think it’s also fair to say that Gay will be a significantly better LB than Ragland based on athletic ability alone. Niang I think will be a solid G at worst. Also think Sneed’s floor is a decent role player with his upside being starting caliber. As long as Andy Reid is here, the offense will be plentiful. That’s a given. |
We seriously need to be thankful and enjoy Andy Reid. He hasn’t had a top 100 pick that has been failed due to talent.
DeSean Jackson LeSean McCoy Brent Celek Jeremy Maclin Brian Westbrook Travis Kelce Kareem Hunt Tyreek Hill Mecole Hardman The guy knows what he’s doing. I can argue he’s the best offensive coach in NFL history with that track record. And shit guys, Jason Kelce, LDT, even Zach Fulton. All late round OL that looked very good with Andy. Anyone think that UDRFA Darryl Williams won’t be a good starter with us? Hard to believe that. Honestly we should all be very thankful that Andy waited and missed out on Russell Wilson or he would have never been fired in Philly. |
My long-winded thoughts...
Here's a look at the roster and where guys will be at in the 2021 offseason in terms of years remaining (1 being last year of deal for 2021 season)... QB1 Patrick Mahomes (presumable 4+) QB2 Chad Henne (1) QB3 Jordan Ta'amu (1, ERFA deal would make it 2) - solid shot a 3rd is carried with roster expansion QB is a non-issue. 2nd and 3rd QBs are available every year and in the draft in the mid-rounds. RB1 Clyde Edwards-Helaire (4) RB2 ? RB3 ? RB4 Darwin Thompson (2) - If he makes the team RB is a non-issue. 2nd and 3rd RBs are always cheap and available, even UDFAs. RB Darrell Williams is possible to bring back on RFA deal, depends on what he is in 2020. FB is not much of a concern. I think it's a foregone conclusion KC moves on from Sherman by then, but a low cost option will be around. WR1 Tyreek Hill (2) WR2 ? WRS Mecole Hardman (2) WR4 Byron Pringle (RFA deal) - I think it's likely they'll retain Pringle with an RFA deal simply due to the numbers game. WR5 ? WR6 ? WR is an obvious problem, especially if an UDFA like Lipscomb doesn't work out and give you a couple extra cheap years. TE1 Travis Kelce (1) TE2 ? TE3 ? TE is something I think KC will need to address next draft. They need a longer-term option behind Kelce. Even if, and I'm sure they do, extend Kelce a few more seasons, he may start becoming more injury plagued much like Gronk became. They need something there. It's possible for KC to bring back TE Deon Yelder on a RFA deal if he pans out in 2020 but I won't hold my breath. LT Eric Fisher (1) LG Martinas Rankin (1) - At age 25, if he's working out, he'll get extended. OC Nick Allegretti/OG (2) RG Lucas Niang/OT (3) RT Mitchell Schwartz (1) - Probably drafted Niang as his successor OG Andrew Wylie (RFA deal) - I think it's likely they'll retain Wylie with an RFA deal simply due to the numbers game. OT Jackson Barton (ERFA deal) - They kept him around so we'll see what transpires, but he's cheap and KC could need bodies. OT will certainly be something to think about, although I think Fisher gets extended a couple years and Niang takes over at RT for Schwartz. IOL I'm kind of penciling guys in here and will probably continue to be mostly the plug and play it's been with low-key dumpster diving. However, now that LDT has a void year, I'd guess at least one mid-round pick goes here. DE1 Frank Clark (3) DE2 Alex Okafor (1) DE3 Breeland Speaks (1, RFA candidate to make it 2) - Is he a DE or DT or potential fail? DE4 Mike Danna (3) - If he can make the team DE5 Demone Harris (ERFA deal) - Veach tends to give guys a shot on ERFA deals if they've been contributors DE will be a need if Danna doesn't work out (and I don't assume he will). Is Tanoh worth bringing back? Okafor has never been much more than a marginal base end and Speaks is nothing at this point. DT1 Chris Jones (assumption of long-term deal) DT2 Derrick Nnadi (1) DT3 Khalen Saunders (2) DT4 ? DT is a position, depending on Jones, that could use more depth or a starter. We'll see. Also, will Veach extend Nnadi? He's a hell of a plug in there so I'd lean towards yes but if not it creates a huge void for 2022. SLB ? MLB Anthony Hitchens (2) - Should be replaced but.... WLB Willie Gay (3) LB4 Dorian O'Daniel (1) - Not good, could get cut either way LB5 ? SLB will definitely be something KC needs to address in the next draft if they aren't intent on extending Wilson, but I'd be all in on brining back Wilson for a couple more years. There is not depth and Hitchens should be replaced. Need more here. They could bring back Niemann on a RFA deal but that's too much for him. CB1 Charvarius Ward (RFA deal, certainly, but will he get extension off of it) CB2 L'Jarius Sneed (3) - lofty expectations CBS Rashad Fenton (2) CB4 Thakarius Keyes (3) - If he can make the team CB5 ? CB has been a constant need through Veach's tenure that he's continued to apply band-aids to. I expect nothing more at this point. I'm expecting they retain Ward long-term, but you never know. It would certainly take the sting out of it. What will come of Sneed, Keyes, Hill, and Davis is yet to be determined but it's a nice class to mull over. SS Tyrann Mathieu (1) FS Juan Thornhill (2) S3 Armani Watts (1) S4 ? S5 ? Finding Mathieu's successor in the next draft would help, and they certainly need depth. K Harrison Butker (4) P Tommy Townsend (2) - Assuming he wins the job LS James Winchester (1) - At age 32, probably will sign another deal Right now, I'd consider priorities along the lines of: 1. LB 2. IOL 3. WR 4. DE 5. CB 6. TE 7. S 8. DT 9. RB 10. OT The good is that KC should come away with 4th and 5th round comps next year and may get a pick for Mark Fields trade to Minnesota (unsure of conditions). Anyhow, KC is primed to likely have at least 8 draft picks and those extra mid rounders could secure some depth along the OL and at S. In terms of cap, KC is penciled in with a guess of $34 million. Take $16 at least for Jones and I don't really think Patrick will cost the team "that much" more once he gets the long-term deal, so I'll guess $5 more. That leaves you at $13. Not much to get things done. You probably go after the bargain positions in FA, including a reserve S, reserve TE, reserve RB, FB, rotational DT and maybe a cheap CB like Veach goes after. That probably puts your draft positions at IOL x 2, LB, DE, WR x 2, S, and a value pick defensively. I dunno, that's my thoughts. I don't really think it's all that bad but I'm not about to expect much of a splash in FA either. |
Kccrow, great post.
I think you do illustrate that our current roster/cap situation is going to put enormous dependence on our draft scouting. We are going to need starters and/or key contributors all over our defense and receiving corps (and potentially interior OL). We only have the money to secure role players in FA, and our extra draft picks come on day 3. That means round 1, 2, and 3 draft picks need to not only all HIT, but they will need to be able to hit soon, and I don’t know how reasonable that is to expect. I think if anyone is up to the task, Veach is, but it’s a going to be a hard climb. He’s just absolutely going to have to slaughter the draft in 2021 for us to not have a talent drop off at critical positions. |
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Add a weapon on offense and it keeps teams forced into a track meet and still creates mismatches. Add another pass rusher and it makes life much easier on your secondary. I think those are key focal points for the draft next Spring. I keep repeating this and it holds very true. Mahomes, Kelce, Tyreek, Clark, Landlord and Jones. Name a better core on any team. The rest is up to coaching. D Wilson, Ward, Fenton, Pennel, Suggs, Ogbah. All cheap adds last year that looked as good as many expensive FA’s. Keep doing that and you’re set |
Chiefs will win 10 consecutive super bowls
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Not much going on right now, so this is a fun topic/post.
The margin for spending to cover up mistakes is going to shrink once Mahomes and Jones are extended. There is no doubt about that. I disagree that the team is not set up great for 2021, though. They'll be starting the year with answers at: QB1 WR1 TE1 (really a #2 receiver) RB1 LT and RT 2 lead pass rushers (Jones and Clark) NT Both starting S Those are cornerstone positions. Any time you can look at a year and say you're good at the cornerstone spots for your schemes, is a year you ARE set up great, IMO. And Gay, Hardman, Ward, Niang, and Saunders offer "star" upside at several additional positions. In my view, if you have QB, your top two pass targets, a third offensive weapon, and bookend tackles set going into a year, you're in good shape on offense. You need to fill in some piece, but you're looking for complementary guys, not stars. On defense, if you have your top two pass rushers and two key members of your back seven addressed, you're again looking for complementary players and scheme fits. So I think they're starting from a strong position with need to fill in complementary and depth pieces. I agree with Crow that LB is likely the top place you draft heading into 2021. I'm very excited about Gay and what his athleticism can bring to KC at that spot, but they WILL need to find another quality starter at that position. I'd place WR/TE as my second priority after that. You're going to need an offensive weapon ready to take over for Kelce as he starts to slow down, but in my view that doesn't HAVE to be a TE. Continuing to draft well is going to be a pretty big deal. There are a lot of players to keep an eye on this year that can positively or negatively affect the outlook, though. From this list of guys:
if most of them hit, you're in really good shape in 2021, IMO. Because again, you're trying to fill in some complementary pieces. You can draft for skill/impact and not need in the early rounds of the draft. If most of them miss, the situation becomes a lot more dire. As long as KC continues to provide Mahomes 3 good passing game weapons (in whatever configuration of positions you want) and a good pair of T, the offense can be filled in cheaply and still be good. As long as the defense has a couple of disruptive pass rushers, and 2-3 good pieces in the back 7, you can fill in around that with guys who can "do their job" and still be a quality unit. Personally, I'm really excited about Clyde Edwards-Helaire because I think it positions you to be OK with a step back at WR, because he's so dynamic in the passing game. I'm really excited about Gay because his athleticism sets him up to be a potential force multiplier type at the second level, a 3-down LB who is dynamic against the run, dangerous as a blitzer, fast enough to get to the flats as a pass defender or the edge on stretch runs, and quick/athletic enough to drop into zones against the pass. I'm really excited about Niang because, to me, it looks like they stole a first-round talent at one of those cornerstone positions. And Hardman? With a year in the offense and a good offseason, that's a guy who could really explode as a dynamic weapon against single coverage, which he's going to consistently be seeing. |
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They're both "good enough" athletes with smooth route-running skills and versatility. Neither one had elite production against the toughest SEC teams. For Lipscomb, he was really the only threat Vandy had at WR, and he suffered from playing in a badly designed offense and with horrible QB play his last season. I think it drove his stock down. I look at Lipscomb as equivalent to nabbing a WR in the 4th or 5th, really. |
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So....I guess the math checks out? |
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I think Lipscomb can be approximately what Demarkus Robinson has been, and maybe even a little better. |
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If the Chiefs couldn't have gotten into the 7th to get Keyes, it just opens up a roster spot that maybe Hill or Davis gets instead and they're really no more/less likely to be NFL players than Keyes is. Roster spots is the choke-point for quality NFL teams, not late round draft capital. |
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Saw the thread title, expected a Direckshun thread. I tend to agree with Crow, Duncan and most others here. The margin for error in the draft definitely becomes smaller after paying Pat and Jones but having elite players at cornerstone positions is hardly not being set up well for 2021 and going forward.
What team or teams would you trade rosters with currently from 2021 and forward? |
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The only teams that can feel in comparable range are: Seattle, Green Bay, Houston, Baltimore (not that Watson or Jackson are AS good as Mahomes, but they're in that top 10 range). So, of that group, who matches up with KC at: WR1 TE1 RB1 Pass Rusher 1 Pass Rusher 2 No one. There isn't a team you'd trade spots with. |
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Core players under contract for 2021.
Mahomes CEH Hill Kelce Fisher Schwartz Hardman Clark Nnadi Landlord Ward Thornhill Possible impact players Fenton Sneed Bopete Niang Gay Wilson Hitchens Speaks Okafor Saunders We’ve got plenty of talent to continue to dominate |
So what you're saying is...
It's super important that we draft well. Hmmn. |
Thank you for sharing!
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You are absolutely terrible at evaluating the NFL, you realize that right?
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The Chiefs will probably only win the Superbowl in 2021 by one TD!
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