If he's looking for Cain money or anywhere close to it, he's going to have to earn it in 2013.

Either get him at a discount or make him pitch 2013 to prove he's back to where he was 2 years ago. The WW we got last year is worth about what Kyle Lohse is worth, if that. His fastball was sitting at 90, his curveball was gopher-prone and his stamina came and went. He was a #3 caliber starter last season.

Unless they can get him to sign a deal that pays him like a 2 or 3 for the next 4 years, make him pitch in 2013 and prove that he should get paid like a #1. If worst comes to worst, we have a lot of starting pitching depth and will certainly offer him arb next year. That would be the third straight year we'd find ourselves holding an extra pick in the first round and the extra slot money that would come with it. The trick will be not wasting said pick on the James Ramsey's of the world.

We would've put Craig in RF, Kelly in the rotation and let Westbrook and Beltran walk. We probably would've used Gast or Freeman as a LOOGY and would've had to figure out how to survive with Randy Choate - {gasp}

And yeah, ownership would've had to chip in a little money as well.

We'd have been just fine for the immediate future. Things would start to get a little murky in 2014 and 2015, but baseball's revenue trend is going to make that $25 million look a hell of a lot less onerous by then.

And who knows - maybe Albert would've made a difference in those three games last October when Craig was busy getting busted inside and rolling everything over. We missed winning the pennant by just one key hit here and there over that last few days - perhaps Albert gets one of them?

Then again, Beltran was a man on fire in October and from a lineup standpoint, Albert's bat would replace Beltran's, not Craig's, so it's a hard call. I think it's fair to say that Albert would've made a difference towards the end, but it is hard to say how much.

I'm in no hurry to sign him now. See what he does this year, he was nothing special in 2012 coming off the injury.

Yep...great post.

Don't pitchers usually take a year to fully recover? I still think he'll be much better this year than last.

I'm not saying I don't want to see him back, but I would like to see him a year after surgery to justify paying him ~$100 mil.

Side note re: taking the James Ramsey's of the world...

I was just talking to a buddy about this today. Isn't taking a James Ramsey WORTH it if you can sign the pick below slot value and use the extra cash elsewhere?

Aye - there's the rub.

Not only did we over-draft a senior with no contract leverage, we also paid him slot.

I agree with you, in theory. Taking a guy like Ramsey; a draft eligible senior that has nowhere to go and was taken a round too early, is a good idea if you're going to offer him 1/2 of slot and use the 'found' money on a premium prospect you took in the teens or even in the 2nd or 3rd rounds due to signability concerns.

But to the Cardinals didn't do that. They reached for him and then didn't even use his senior status to their advantage and gave him slot. In the end, it didn't help them at all.

The Ramsey mess still irritates the hell out of me. The Red Sox took Deven Marrerro with the very next pick and he's already one of their top 10 prospects. The Cardinals system is freakin' barren at middle infield and loaded w/ fast LHers with no power and good bat control. And instead of taking the premium SS that fell about 8 spots, we took a freakin' Skip Schumaker clone and paid him slot.

Ugh. !@#$ you, Mozeliak.

As do I.

But there's no sense in giving him Matt Cain money if he doesn't prove to be Matt Cain quality first. Build in some upside to the deal or at least prove that you've removed the downside and then I'll give you your long-term deal, Adam.

But I wouldn't even consider giving him the kind of money his representation is no doubt looking for before making him prove he'll earn it. Getting his velocity back to the 94 mph range with snap on his curveball would be a nice start.

Baseball America, mlb.com and basically every baseball blogger and publication has named the Cardinals as the best farm system in baseball. Yet you still pass out !@#$%'s?

I realize that you feel that if your team doesn't win the World series every year that season is a failure but a FU to our farm system? COME ON MAN!

Carpenter is the NL's version of Andy Pettitte in terms of his postseason dependability. If he's done, he had a helluva career.

Mo has failed to properly address the middle infield with a young prospect aside from Wong. The Cardinals best ****ing SS prospect is probably Ryan ****ing Jackson.

I said FU to John Mozeliak.

Jeff Luhnow built our farm system and he's gone now. Luhnow would've never made the Ramsey pick.

If he can play credible defense, it's Greg Garcia.

But that's a big if.

I do think Luhnow deserves a shit load of credit for rebuilding the farm system, but at the same time, I do think Mo deserves credit too but not to the extent of Luhnow. Luhnow pretty much built it up from the ground while Mo is trying to maintain a good system.



Probably so, but Jackson seems to have an above average glove and average bat. Garcia has an above average bat, and hopefully average defense.

Every baseball team has holes.

It's been a glaring one for about a ****ing decade.

I agree.

And they should recognize and actively attempt to fill those holes.

Instead we drafted a superfluous part with an extremely low ceiling and gave him a contract that was significantly better than his performance, tools or leverage warranted.

Jackson has a noodle bat. He hit well at Springfield but everyone hits well at Hammond. At AAA, guys were taking the bat out of his hand. His bat looks a lot like Kozmas but with even less power. I don't see him ever being able to hit enough to be a regular.

If he's Brendan Ryan with the leather, you could up with it. Ryan Jackson isn't Brendan Ryan with the leather.

Garcia at least has a couple of projectable tools, namely his walk rate and bat control. That leads me to believe he can actually play at the next level.

Every team had holes and can't fill them all.

We have to focus on starting pitching. We have absolutely zero chance to compete with the BILLION TV contracts without young quality starting pitching. It balances the $25 million a year hitters and allows us to pursue other FA's or pay our own guys. Instead of buying the most expensive position in baseball, top level pitching.

As far as Ludhow building the #1 farm system by himself and no one else helped...... Last years draft......you are bitching about the Ramsey pick but other baseball gurus praised the move. Allowing them to sign picks in the later rounds with tremendous upside....... and also what about Wachau? He was picked by Mo, flew up the system in a single year. will compete for a spot on the team after a single year in the minors.

Haven't seen much of him, but what I saw of Mejia in the CWS last year, I liked. He looks like he could develop above avg power for a ss.

I think the FO is not going to make Taveras do another year in the minors. Superficial evidence piling up.
Beltran concedes he could use more rest
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseb...7e67aae86.html

Methany: Taveras will get a good look. Pal up with Beltran, fill in for Beltran and Holliday in spring training
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseb...430d5d329.html

Ideally you want to wait a few months for Taveras to come up because then you get another year on his clock due to the weird way the arb system works.

that was the general consensus that the Cards didn't want the 6 year clock to start ticking until he was really ready for prime time to get the most bang for their 6 year buck. They would hold him back until this year didn't count because if he pans out as prediction, he will be making $25+ million a year in year 7 of big show service.

When can you bring up players and not count as a year of service, you know?

It's more about trading two months of play for an extra year of cost control. It's a risky move.

So if they bring him up June 1st they get 6 years and the the 4 months of this year?

Posted from another source, but accurate nonetheless:

So, a team can prevent a player from being arbitration eligible for one year by keeping them in the minors on Opening Day and not calling them up until after 17% of that season's in-season callup rookies have been added to their respective rosters. Feel free to skip this if you've already got it, but if you don't, here's an example:

Player A is on an MLB roster on Opening Day 2009, as a rookie.
Player B is called up on April 15, 2009.
Player C is called up on June 1, 2009.

Assuming all three players are not sent back down:

Player A will have three years of ML service time following the 2011 season, and will qualify for arbitration for 2012 and free agency for 2015.
Player B will likely qualify for abritration as a Super 2 following the 2011 season, and will qualify for free agency for the 2015 season.
Player C will not qualify for arbitration until completing his third full season in 2012, and will not be a free agent until the end of the 2015 season.

so it doesn't matter when they will qualify for free agency but when they qualify for arbitration.

I went to several Springfield games last year. The guy just stood out among everyone else. I hope he looks the same in triple A and stays healthy.

No, it matters for both cases. In case C the player waits an extra year before hitting FA; it's just worded somewhat awkwardly.

From Baseball Prospectus:
2013 St. Louis Cardinals Top 15 Prospects



As if the Cardinals big league success wasn’t enough in recent years, they also own one of the most impressive collections of minor league talent in baseball. Their top prospect is an elite talent that could be a superstar at the big league level. They have a plethora of young right-handed pitchers with big-time potential and there are new additions to the system that could help sustain the strength of the organization over the long haul. The Cardinals Top 15 is absolutely impressive and should be for the foreseeable future.
1. Oscar Taveras – OF (Last Year’s Rank: 3)
Taveras is a budding star. He is one of the best hitters in the minor leagues and drew immense praise from scouts for his hitting ability; invoking thoughts of batting titles and routine .300 seasons. His power is legitimate as well, with the potential to pop 25 home runs a year and possibly even a little more. Taveras can play anywhere in the outfield and could debut up the middle before sliding to a corner down the line. He has star-level potential and should hit in the middle of a championship lineup for a long time.
2. Shelby Miller – RHP (1)
Miller had some rough patches in 2012 but ultimately put everything together and forced his way to the big leagues. His fastball is an easy 70-grade pitch that can overpower hitters when he uses it appropriately. Miller also shows a strong curveball and the potential for an average change-up, giving him a broad arsenal that should allow him to handle hitters multiple times in a game. Miller maxes out as a number two starter and he can reach that ceiling with some improvement in his command and consistency.
3. Trevor Rosenthal – RHP (9)
With big-league dominance already in his back pocket, Rosenthal forced his way to this spot on the list. His fastball reached triple digits in short bursts and he can flash 96-97 mph velocity as a starter. His primary secondary pitches are a curveball and a cutter, followed by a change-up that flashes some average potential. Rosenthal’s ceiling as a starter isn’t very far behind Shelby Miller and he has the fallback option of becoming a truly dominating closer.
4. Carlos Martinez – RHP (4)
Martinez represents another arm with high-ceiling potential and exceptional velocity. He can run his fastball up to 96-97 mph routinely and has touched 99-100 in shorter stints. Scouts like both his curveball and change-up, though the change-up draws more consistent high-end praise. Scouts remain split regarding his future role with an equal number believing he ends up a number two or three starter, and still others maintaining their belief in his relief profile. Martinez should make a significant impact in the big leagues, regardless of his role, and that impact could begin to be felt in late 2013.
5. Tyrell Jenkins – RHP (2)
I might be the biggest Jenkins apologist in the prospect community. While his numbers weren’t pretty in Low-A in 2012, his stuff remained tremendous with plus projection across the board. His fastball already sits in that range and scouts believe he could develop a plus curveball and change-up as well. Jenkins is extremely raw and will move slowly but he has an amazing ceiling that could match any of those pitchers ahead of him on this list.
6. Michael Wacha – RHP (NR)
A first round pick last year, Wacha could race to the Major Leagues before the end of his first full season in 2013. He has a quality plus fastball that occasionally spikes a little higher. He generates good angle with his fastball, helping the pitch play up a bit. I like Wacha’s curveball and believe it could miss bats in the big leagues down the line. His change-up can be a plus pitch that keeps hitters off balance and should be a reliable plus offering in the big leagues. Wacha lacks the ceiling of those ahead of him in the Cardinals organization, but carries far less risk as he tries to reach his mid-rotation ceiling. Editor’s Note: I transposed Wacha’s CB and CH from my notes and have adjusted the write-up accordingly. Thank you to those that pointed out the mix up via email.
7. Patrick Wisdom – 3B (NR)
Wisdom’s power and defense stand out as really impressive tools and make him a serious big league prospect. He is a physical guy with tons of strength and while he is not quick, he moves well at third base, has good hands and shows a plus arm. His power is evident both in batting practice and in games and while he has plenty of swing and miss in his game, he can reach his power and could hit 20-25 home runs a year while hitting .250-.260. Wisdom will need to adjust to higher-caliber pitching but once he begins to settle in, he could move quickly.
8. Kolten Wong – 2B (5)
Wong is very likely to be an everyday Major League second baseman but he is unlikely to develop into a star. Wong is a quality hitter with plus potential and a good approach at the plate. He can find the gaps at times but has below-average overall power. He is a good defender that plays the position instinctually and shows a good arm. He is a baseball rat that gets the most out of his tools and should be in the big leagues late in 2013.
9. Matt Adams – 1B (6)
Adams still has a chance to hold down first base for the Cardinals but he’s going to have to hit the next time he gets a shot at the highest level. He is a solid hitter but likes to swing the bat and scouts began to view him as a classic bad-ball hitter in 2012. He can get away with that because of his bat-to-ball skills and raw power, but he doesn’t project to mash in the big leagues; instead hitting .260-.270 with 20-25 home runs.
10. Charlie Tilson – OF (12)
Tilson’s 2012 season was ravaged by injury but that shouldn’t push him off the prospect map. He is a really good athlete with fantastic instincts for the game. He plays hard and has an up-the-middle profile on defense that further enhances his prospect stock. He has hitting potential and the bat speed necessary to show at least gap power down the line. Tilson has the potential to be a very good everyday player.
11. Carson Kelly – 3B (NR)
Kelly needs considerable work and will take time along the developmental path, but he does have the potential to become a very good prospect. His defense at third base needs the most work and many pro scouts didn’t see a future for him at the hot corner. He has average hitting potential and plus raw power that could combine to make an impact at third base or he could just get by at first base.
12. Starlin Rodriguez – 2B (NR)
Rodriguez is a very good athlete that stands out on the field with a live body and plenty of tools. He is a good hitter with some scouts believing he could hit at the plus level down the line. He drives the ball to the gap and shows the potential to pop 10-12 home runs a year. He runs well and has solid instincts on the bases where he could swipe 20-25 bases at his peak. Defensively, Rodriguez is still settling in at second base and he has the athleticism to handle another position, possibly center field.
13. James Ramsey – OF (NR)
The Cardinals took some heat for popping Ramsey in the first round and while it appeared they were “going cheap” with the pick, the Cardinals truly believe in his future. Ramsey is loaded with average to solid-average tools and has a hard-nosed style of play that endears him to teammates and coaches. He is a solid hitter with average pop and average defensive potential in center field. It’s not a flashy profile, but he has a big league floor and the ceiling of a solid everyday guy.
14. Alexander Reyes – RHP (NR)
Reyes received $950,000 from the Cardinals after establishing his residency in the Dominican Republic after moving there from New Jersey. He has a prototypical pitcher’s frame with good present velocity in the low-90s and the ability to touch 94-95 mph. He shows some feel for both a curveball and change-up but they need work and repetition. Reyes is a long way from the big leagues and his ultimate ceiling is still uncertain, but his raw ingredients are extremely intriguing and worthy of notice.
15. Stephen Piscotty – 3B (NR)
Piscotty was a fringy first round pick that the Cardinals pulled the trigger on in the supplemental round. He is a solid hitter with good doubles power and the potential for 10-15 home runs once he settles into the pro game. He doesn’t profile well at third base and will have to maximize all of his offensive gifts to hang on an outfield corner. Piscotty could reach the upper levels of the system quickly and has the work ethic to transform himself into a big league player.

I've had conversations on twitter with Jenkins & Jordan Swagerty (who would be high on this list if not for TJ surgery), both seem like great guys, I think Jenkins' upside is as high as any pitcher in the system. He was also recruited to play qb at Baylor, so must be a pretty damn good athlete.

That was my understanding as well but then I read somewhere that it just creates a 4th arbitration eligible year rather than only 5 years of team control. In other words, Super 2 players are still under team control for 6 seasons, you just have to go to arbitration for 4 of them.

EDIT: Found the article I was looking for:

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/ind...ess/super-two/

A year of service time in the major leagues is 172 days. So under scenario B, not calling that player up until April 15 should be long enough to keep him from accruing the 172 days needed for a full year of service time.

Evan Longoria is a very good example of this. He was only in the minors for the first 2 weeks of 2008, but that would've been enough to keep him from getting to 172 days and wouldn't have cost the team a year of team control.

Super 2 status is arbitration eligibility, That's the 'June 1' date you so often see, though even that isn't a bright line rule. FA eligibility is a different animal and is based exclusively on service time. I believe the Cards would only have to keep Tavares in AAA for 2-3 weeks to keep from losing the extra year of team control, though they would lose a season of pure cost control by doing so.

You can control a player for about 6.8-6.9 years at this point.

If you're trying to control them for an extra year, a lot of teams will go conservative in year one and keep them down an extra week or two past what was projected as necessary to retain that extra year of control, just to be safe.

Fantasy owners hate it, but I expect both the Cardinals and Rays will do it with Taveras and Myers, respectively.

BTW, I would bet on your guy being more of an instant-impact type. He's a little farther away, but he hasn't shown the swing-and-miss tendencies Myers did last year.

See, but I think you dodged the question.

"An extra week or two past what was projected" speaks to Super 2 status and I don't think that has anything to do with team control. That's simply years of arbitration eligibility.

I don't think you have to keep them down past mid-April to get below the 172 day season for the purposes of reaching the 6 years of service time necessary for FA status.

May 1-September 30 gets you to 153 days, so yeah, Mid-April should be about right. Depends on when the season starts/ends.

I think teams have been conservative with that because the mark has changed a few times over the years. Killing two birds with one stone and trying to avoid Super 2 makes sense, also, and I think that's what a lot of teams do.

Obviously, for the Cardinals, Super 2/extra year of arb matters less than to a team like KC or Tampa.

Good point. For KC, that extra year of arb could mean $6-8 million and ultimately that's just not going to make/break most teams.

For the Cards, all that really matters is that extra year of team control, more for the purposes of leverage in a long-term deal than anything. Now if you try to extend him, you're buying out 1 fewer FA year and that could really mean a lot.

I was not aware that they moved the service time line much. I know it's always shifting for Super 2 status, but the service time thing seems pretty static. Ultimately I'd be a little less nervous about it now w/ the brand new CBA in place.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/colum...e38f69399.html

What one thing doesn't go with the other thing?

1. Non-roster outfielder Oscar Taveras made another loud noise during Thursday’s first inning at Roger Dean Stadium. With a ferocious lefthanded swing against former Westminster High talent Jacob Turner, the Cardinals’ top hitting prospect since Albert Pujols transformed a misplaced strike into a shot that cleared the right field wall for a grand slam. In his first game this spring Taveras punished an opposite-field fly ball to the left-center field warning track, where a circus catch denied him extra bases. The following day Taveras yanked a ground-rule double off the right-center field track.
   Taveras is this camp’s bright shiny object, its unopened Christmas gift. He exudes a quality Cardinals manager Mike Matheny describes as “a presence” in the batter’s box.
   His swing is always “on time,” according to Matheny, meaning that Taveras unerringly squares a round ball with the round barrel of his bat. There is no more desirable quality for a position player. Baseball American anointed Taveras its second-most prized position prospect.
2. For Mozeliak, something bad would have to occur for Taveras to be on the opening day 25-man roster. Indeed, it makes more sense to the organization that first baseman Matt Adams make the club as a bench player than Taveras.

Im not buying this. With Beltrans balky knees, Jay's road woes, Halliday could use more rest over the season I think you could find plenty of at bats even if everyone stays healthy all season.

I'm telling you, BRC, there is no ****ing way they burn that cost-controlled year. No ****ing way.

This looks like a good thread...





for me to poop on!

I know, I know.:huh:

I can wait, I guess. It's good for the team in the long run. You can rest Beltran later in the year when you can call up Taveras. It's the Christmas present I can't wait to open.;)

Unfortunately this. The only way we see him before June is with an injury problem. We may not see him at all this year if the outfield stays healthy.

Cardinals shut down Furcal. Inflamation continues. Can't throw. Okay Mo, better get off your ass and get us a SS.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseb...33e4b5776.html

VIERA, Fla. • Cardinals shortstop Rafael Furcal has had a significant setback in his recovery from a torn ligament in his right elbow and the club is now left to pursue options for treatment.

As Rick Hummel reported in this morning's Post-Dispatch, Furcal experienced ongoing and increasing pain in the right elbow as a result of a bone spur in the joint. The pain has also returned to the area around the ligament.
The latter is the greater concern for the club.

Furcal has been told to discontinue his baseball activities, manager Mike Matheny confirmed this morning at the Washington Nationals' ballpark before the teams' game there.
"It kind of went in a bad direction," Matheny said. "I don't know the severity of it, but it's not good news. ... He's done quite a bit of rehab and to go backward isn't a good sign."

Furcal had an MRI taken of the elbow Friday and the picture revealed inflammation in the ligament, general manager John Mozeliak confirmed. He said that "inflamed" was the best description for the ligament, not that it had seen further damage. Furcal has a slight tear of the ligament, but it had healed since the initial injury.
Furcal will go for a second opinion early this week, Mozeliak said. It's possible that review will be sought from Dr. James Andrews.

Always risky to sign players as oft-injured as Furcal.

Rumors were out there that the Cardinals were considering going after Tulowitzki, but he's also not a super healthy type and that is a massive contract for such a big guy who plays SS.

well now they are going to have to overpay. Playing with a average defensive SS hitting .200 for the season could take the whole season down.

I'd rather take a risk on JJ Hardy. I think he could be had for significantly less. I'd also like to wait a few months to see if we can weather part of the storm and thus pay a little less, especially if the O's drop off a cliff, as their record in one run games would suggest.

You can never have enough young pitching. But, we need at least an average SS or else it drags everything else down.

Looks like we got another stud in the pipeline for the Pujols pick.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
During his first time facing batters, Wacha’s pitches broke a few bats and third baseman David Freese later offered his take on Twitter: “Wow.”Manager Mike Matheny said he has confused Wacha from behind with Adam Wainwright because of their builds and poise.


On Wednesday, Wacha struck out five Mets in an exhibition game and Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, who is not known for overstatement, said the 21-year-old righthander “could compete right now in the big leagues.”
He also has caught Wainwright’s eye.


“I’m trying to remember if I’ve heard Yadi speak out like that about someone before, and I can’t think of a time he has,” Wainwright said. “That’s the presence we’re all talking about. You feel that presence about him when he’s on the mound. I think he has the potential to be the kind of guy where the other team shows up and it’s, ‘Ewwww, uh-oh we have to face Wacha.’”

Oh, man, I would love to see the Orioles fans demands for JJ Hardy. The way they overrate their own players and underrate the value of others, I have no doubt they'd be mocking something like this:

JJ Hardy for Oscar Taveras

JJ Hardy and (insert AAAA player/bench player prospect here - LJ Hoes is a favorite) for Oscar Taveras AND Trevor Rosenthal.

Would be interesting.

I think Hardy would be a great fit for you guys, though. That would be a smart trade target once the O's inevitably return to earth happens.

Realistic target... I could see something that includes Matt Adams. They are short on power in their minor league system, and Adams' lefty pop would play pretty well in Camden Yards.

I'm sure Baltimore would want one of the pitching prospects included as the main piece of the deal. For 1.5 years of Hardy (Assuming you trade for him at the deadline), not sure how much else Baltimore would actually demand.

It would have been GM malpractice to not have at least kicked the tires on Hardy. But all the rumor mill has the O's asking for a Miller + level trade. No team is going to give that level up for Hardy's 1.5 years of service.

Adams is expendable but I don't think I want to give up Adams and Kelly/Lynn/Wacha/ etc. for Hardy.

Understand Lynn/Wacha. If you could get Hardy for Adams and Kelly, that seems like an incredible steal to me.

Don't think the Orioles would swing on that, and I wouldn't blame them.

But getting a premium defender at SS who is a lock for 20-30 HR? Would be a pretty valuable piece, even for a year and a half, especially considering how depleted St. Louis' options are at the moment.

I would do Wacha and another B- level prospect for Hardy.

Miller, Rosenthal, and Taveras should all be untouchable to me, with Martinez and Jenkins coming at a pretty steep price.

I'd have no problems getting rid of Adams, but we'd likely need to give up another arm in the process for them to bite.

Craig will be a Cardinal until age 32 and Cardinals have an additional option year. Very reasonable contract.

The Cardinals did something they rarely do when they reached agreement today with first baseman Allen Craig, who was not yet arbitration eligible, on a five-year contract taking him through 2017 with a club option for 2018.

Craig is guaranteed to earn $31 million over the course of the contract.


He will make $1.75 million this year, $2.75 million in 2014, $5.5 million in 2015, $9 million in 2016 and $11 million in 2017.


The Cardinals have a $13 million option for 2018 with a $1 million buyout.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseb...85841ff78.html

That is a great deal the way it looks now.

First I'd heard mention of anything like this. Thoughts?

Saw that; can't imagine there's any validity to it.

I don't know that I'd even be happy about that deal, even though we are desperate for a SS.

Not that desperate.

Best prospect since Pujols and we trade him? You don't trade someone who has the HOF as a potential ceiling for a year and a half of another player.

Shelby's the #5 and Cedeno got red tagged.

Kozma...we ride together; we die together.

Surely kozma can hit better than the .200 that Cedeno would have hit.

Why would you only get a year and a half from Profar?

He's every bit the prospect O-Tav is and you would have him for 6 years. In a system flush with corner OF bats, why not try to allocate an OFer for a SS?

Finally someone bumped this thread, been looking everywhere for it.

Kozma had a slash line of .232/292/.355 in AAA last year.

You hope that he can give you league average defense and hit about 12 homers. A .700 OPS would be a ****ing miracle.

Conflated Profrar with Andrus.

It's an interesting trade offer in that it really does work extremely well for both sides.

But man oh man, you'd better trust the hell out of your scouts.

Profar's ceiling on offense is probably not as high as O-Tavs, but it's close. I actually like his approach more than I like Tavaraez's. But Tavarez has the body and bat whip to be a big time middle of the order hitter with outstanding contact skills.

As a run producer, I don't care about your BB rate if you're still commanding the strike zone. Tavarez seems to do that nicely. But ultimately, he's still just a corner OFer. If you can get a 25/25 SS with a plus glove, that's as valuable as a 40 HR OFer. Or at least damn close. And in a system with a lot of guys that can hit but very few that can play SS, it's a trade you have to consider.

I'd rather trade Holliday for Andrus, but I don't see that happening.

Taveras is a safer bet, but he gives you less surplus value. I'd roll w/ Oscar.

Try and move Adams and an arm for Hardy at the deadline when the Orioles are 12 back.

I'd rather have Adams and Profar than O-Tav and Hardy.

Adams is going to be a .280 hitter w/ 30 HR power in short order. I wouldn't trade him straight up for Hardy and I damn sure wouldn't include an arm.

All that kid has done at every level he's ever been at is mash the ball.

Where is he going to play? Craig just got extended, Taveras is going to right in all likelihood. Unless you want to use Taveras as the 70% RFer, 20% CFer, 10% LF, with Craig spelling occasional time at a COF spot and Adams filling in there.

Well in my scenario, Taveras has gone to Texas so Craig goes straight into RF in the long term. Short term, with 648 games to play between LF/CF/RF and 1b, You could use slide Craig to 1b when needed and Beltran to CF when needed and get 130 games out of each of them if you so chose. Giving each of those guys a day off/wk isn't a bad idea at all. Craig, Jay and Holliday all have a tendency to get banged up and Beltran completely ran out of gas.

And in the process, you could give Adams a chance to establish legitimate trade value. I'm not a fan of trading him for 1.5 years of Hardy. If he shows that he can be a hitter at this level, he's probably a 2-3 WAR player pretty easily; that's a $12 million asset on the open market; it's worth more than JJ Hardy.

I have no interest in trading low on Matt Adams when we have places for him to play.

In that scenario we're essentially trading flipping two more known commodities (given Hardy's MLB experience and our familiarity with Taveras) for two lesser known commodities with similar levels of upside.

You obviously get more years of use if Adams hits, but he also plays the most easily replaceable position in the game.

Besides, several of Texas' prospects over the last few years have been overrated (Smoak, Feliz, Moreland). Not Angels overrated, but overrated nonetheless.

THIS!

Why would Holliday ever accept a trade? Holliday is here for the duration.

It's tempting but damn its hard for me to get behind trading Taveras. I know it makes sense. Craig goes to right. Adams to 1B and we get the best young SS in baseball. I can see why they are talking. Seems to benefit both teams.

But, like Hamas says, the rangers have a history of overvaluing prospects. I hope the Cardinals know lock/stock/barrel/print em/bet the mortgage that Profar is the real deal to pull the trigger on this deal.

Like I said - you'd better trust your scouts. Not Texas's.

It's not a trade you make this week. Send your top couple of scouts to follow the kid for a week and decide how you want to go from there.

You absolutely, positively, cannot be wrong. Taveras has as low a floor as you'll see in this game for prospects. You simply don't have that kind of bat control and suck.

But I don't see how you can look at the power that Profar's generated at such a young age and with so much more room for growth in his frame, not to mention his plate discipline, and salivate at the thought of building an infield around him for the next decade.

Because the Rangers aren't exactly the Astros.

Playing in Texas and having the opportunity to rest a bit at DH here and there, may be appealing to him.

I don't see why he'd veto a trade, truth be told. The Rangers are as good or better a fit for him as the Cardinals. The fans are good, the weather is great, no income tax and a park that will inflate his HR totals. What's not to like?

So even though he plays for a contender why wold he not want to get traded to another contender in another state rather than stay where he is happy, comfortable, and resides?

And then you have the fact being a Cardinal > than being a Ranger.

Whats not to like right?

He'd be playing for a contender that told him they thought they'd be better without him.

Vetoing a trade is not a rare occurrence, but it's not terribly common either. Most players, if offered a similar situation, will consent to a trade (or at least try to leverage a few $$ out of it).

We're not sending him to the Pirates - there are few places in baseball better for a hitter to get traded to than the Texas Rangers. I think there's an 80% chance he'd accept the trade.

Time for baseball, I need some happiness after what Mizzou put me through this year. Go Cards!

Seriously, let's hear it for the only competitive team in the entire ****ing state.