How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?
 

Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

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Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%

Easy schedules for everyone.

38%

Baltimore’s isn’t. And they are a fraud team anyway.

50-50. Either we get it, or we don't.

Doesn't matter either way, we're winning the Lamar again.

The 1 would be nice, but I'd be really happy with the 2.

Tie breakers **** is in basically every scenario if we don't have the outright best record.

Wish the Ravens had lost today.


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Very good.

I sincerely believe we're going to win out.

We just need Tennessee to lose 2 out of 3 to PIT, SF and NE.

Pole fail

If we don't the 1, it doesn't really matter. No bye and it's not like this team plays differently when home vs. Away.

Starting to look better. I definitely want HFA, but part or me wants to see Mahomes win a playoff game in the road jersey.

Ravens schedule is a gauntlet. Not concerned about them.

2 games behind the Tits.


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Should’ve been easy for the Titans today.

I think the Chiefs win out. The bye comes at the perfect time. This was the only game that worried me.

If that happens, the Chiefs finish 13-4.

The Bills would need to win out, but they have two games remaining against New England. A split takes care of whoever wins the East.

The Ravens are dropping a minimum of 2 more. If they don’t win the North, then that tie breaker doesn’t matter.

It really just comes down to the Titans. They’re very capable of dropping 2 more. I’ll guarantee they lose at least one.

The H2H sucks but we can start making up a lot of conference games in the final 6 games.

I assume if we ended 12-5 it'd come down to a TB. No way anyone else is going 13-4 IMO. Too much parity and too many flawed teams.

The only one I would be concerned with is the Tits and that soft schedule. But they just lost to the Texans at home.

Feeling pretty good about our chances at the #1 seed but there are still a lot of games to be played.

Winning out gives them a solid chance.

Gotta be 13-4 to get the #1 seed again.


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Tennessee isn’t beating New England.

That just leaves one more loss.

If nothing else, we’ll be in it until the last week of the season I’m sure.

SF is starting to play much better now. The injuries are eventually going to catch up with Tennessee. They would have lost last week had NO not missed two extra points.

Done until you are not done. We can until we can't.

Honestly I've given up on it. But if you cornered me, I'd say around 40-45%. If KC had scored 30+, I'd feel around 50-55%. Regardless, the team as a whole looks like they can make a run for it.

Tennessee and Baltimore have proven they can lose to any worthless **** of a team.

We're going back to the Super Bowl.

We're gonna need help for the 1 seed. Its a strong possibility though.

It's not good the number of AFC games we've lost, or losing to Buf and Ten, but it's wide open. Anything is possible and not getting the no 1 seed might help us stay focused.

TN lost to Houston. Bills have lost to the ****ing Jags....

Anything is posssible, just got to keep winning and everything else will take care of itself.

Remember that year we needed the Dolphins to beat the Pats?

Sketchy as long as our offense is still such a mess. Mahomes is not reading defenses well, not finding the open receivers. Our receivers are dropping passes, fumbling the ball, generally doing dumb stuff.

Until Mahomes becomes the Half-A-Billion dollar man again, we are on the outside looking in.

I'll say it again.

We're going back to the big dance.

I wasn't sure until today, but the offense has un****ed itself, and likely will find it's stride in the postseason as it usually does.

The defense has been elite for six weeks.

I'm not scared of anyone's offense except maybe the Bills, and Sorensen isn't playing 60 snaps for Josh to find him there anymore.

It will take a catastrophic injury to one of our blue chip players to stop this team.

You are a ****ing Alexian leftover dipshit. They had almost 400 yards today. Mahomes was 27/37 if his receivers didn't drop 4 passes. He's finding open guys just fine.

"A mess" in Kansas City is a good day for almost any other offense.

I’ve got three different Super Bowl futures bets. 850, 1200, and 1400. Feeling pretty good about those.

We get to have a nice long holiday bye week. We can come back healthy, fat and sassy after watching the AFC eat itself. The #1 seed is ours if we take care of business.

ask Pete if we are going sniff the playoffs

50/50 but I doubt #1 seed matters at this point. Best team playing at the end wins it and it very well will be KC.

You have no idea who the **** i am.

Meanwhile, you're a troll and you will always be an attention-whoring troll. It doesn't matter how many times you change your name Wendler, you're still the same as you always were.

The bye week can be huge for getting guys healthy at end of the season.

But yea, if you don't get it, whatever.

Where do you think these open receivers are?

No one besides Hill, Kelce and very rarely Pringle has any ability to get open whatsoever.

Titans are not playing well, Ravens have been lucky, Pats are cheaters, Bills have been sucking--Chiefs are set up nicely.

I would say if KC wins out they get the #1. Tennessee will drop a couple to NE and Pittsburgh/SF.

Buffalo will split with NE.

Baltimore will split with Cleveland and lose once at least to a combo of CIN/LAR/GB.

NE will split with Buffalo.

LAC lose to KC.

It seems Buffalo has the toughest schedule. Ravens have the second toughest.

lol

Tannehill looked like ASS today

*buries face in hands*

As long as Mahomes doesn't get greedy, we'll be fine.

Go find some offs to ****, Jake.

TEN is getting their shit pushed in by NE and SF.

PIT has a really good defense, that could be a close game.

We just have to take care of business.

The Bengals game scares me.

That's definitely a point. Our wrs are crap for the most part. Pringle is showing hopeful signs though.

I still see the occasional wr breaking open and Mahomes just doesn't look.

Hey, MAhomes is still awesome, but he is struggling to run the schemes that defenses are forcing him to run. Defense are now also putting a spy on him now, making his life even harder. That's why he hesitates to take off and run now. He thinks the spies are going to be faster than him and close the hole before he can get there.

Why? If this was the beginning of the season when our defense was a dumpster fire I would agree. The defense us improving and because of that we don't have to be lights our on offense to win. Cincinnati is getting better, but I don't think they are there yet.

Barring injuries, we'll run the table.

The Steelers are really bad and have been for weeks now.

After the past couple weeks around the NFL.... no ****ing clue, but just happy to be in the discussion.

Hate saying this but Clyde may have fumbled our chances in Baltimore

If the Titans beat the Patriots, I would be surprised if they don't hold on for the #1 seed given they have tiebreaker vs the Chiefs. If Patriots win that game as I expect, it may be a battle between Patriots and Chiefs for the number 1 seed.

As of right now, Patriots and Chiefs appear headed to a post season showdown/rematch. The Patriots have to continue to improve their offensive line and make a few less mistakes with pass protection to beat the Chiefs.

Injuries can change things awfully fast but the Patriots appear back as a Super Bowl contender since they drafted really well this past year and did pretty well with their gigantic free agency spending spree.

I honestly think Patriots can contain Chiefs offense enough but they can't have too many negative plays(sacks, penalties, turnovers) on offense and expect to beat the Chiefs. The Patriots really have no truly "big play" receivers nor do they have a Julian Edelman that needs to be doubled. But they do have nice depth at tight end/receiver.

Should be a great game if these two teams meet.

Next weekend is going to be a tough challenge for the AFC. Glad we can sit and watch

5-5 LV @ 7-3 DAL
6-4 BUF @ 5-5 NO
5-3-1 PIT @ 6-4 CIN
6-3 TB @ 6-5 IND
8-3 TEN @ 7-4 NE
5-4 LAC @ 5-5 DEN
6-5 CLE @ 7-3 BAL

It matters. Hard to beat three playoff caliber teams in a row. Keep in mind Andy Reids historical success after a bye week as well. Get the bye and you are damn near guaranteed the AFC Championship game in Arrowhead for the 4th year in a row.

538's model says 9%. That seems a little low, but not far. Losing to the Titans made it pretty tough.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/

That’s actually very accurate. Nice work

Were basically only going to have 1 more game to lose to have a chance

Chances of being the #1 seed= 100%

Bet your house on it.

Even if we get the 2 seed I like our chances of hosting the title game for the 4th year in a row. Titans can lose on a moments notice.

Very very difficult. We don't have the tie breaker. Outside of @chargers and @bengals though its easy wins.

I think we lose only one more game and finish 12-5.

You guys going to scream/laugh at the computer program too?

Oh, who said anything about greedy, WTF are you talking about?


We are an offensive team whose offense is a mess. That is a bad formula.
If Mahomes doesn't start being his old stud self, it's doubtful that we get the #1 seed.

If you 2 weren't blind homers, you wouldn't think we'd get it either.

We already lost to 4 teams in the AFC; Chargers and Bills at home and Titans, Ravens. Those are our playoff competitors. Why are you going nuts about it being considered a long shot? I know, i know ... you are super homers who believe that thinking the Chiefs will win everything somehow makes you better fans than everyone else. When really it just makes you idiots. :shake:

Win out and finish 13-4 I think the 1 seed is very likely. Lose 1 or more games there is no chance due to tie breakers all of our losses coming at the hands AFC opponents.

I'm not trying to ruin your hope, i'm really not ... even if we win out we are a game behind the titans and we've lost the head-to-head with them. We also lost the head-to-head to Ravens,Titans and Bills, all teams competing for top playoff seeds. The math doesn't look good.

The patriots look like they are getting better and better. That bastard Belicheck is always a PITA. He's the one that started the scheme that ****ed with Superman Mahomes.

The Bills are not a factor. They lose at least two more, if not more. The Titans have a chance to hold it but they have the Patriots this week. Not sure who we want there. I think the Ravens are going to struggle to win their division. I think we have as good a chance as anyone despite not having tiebreakers.

JakeF loves Alex. Nothing he says matters.

:hmmm:

Your hope is inspiring me. :grouphug:

huh

Jeez, you are such a buzzkill sometimes. :rolleyes:

We just stomped the Cowboys and their #1 rated offense- doesn't that get at least 24 hours of positivity?

Name an offense in the AFC that ISN'T a mess, pete. Err, I mean, Jake

JakeF is an Alex homer.

He has to shit on Patrick given ANY opportunity.

Secretly, he wishes he really was broken.

If you believe that this is the same Chiefs team that lost those games, then I wonder what team you watched today.

Seriously, Jake. If the Chiefs offense is a mess, name an offense in the AFC that's not a mess. All of them have glaring flaws that can be exploited and cause them to implode for any reason.

The Chargers are a bunch of flaming pussies.

Shitsburgh has no line and Big Ben sucks

Buffalo can't run and Josh Allen still has yet to prove he can clear the same hurdle that was/is being thrown at Mahomes

The Patriots have no talented players and are QB'd by a Trent Dilfer clone

Cleveland and Baltimore are both pure ****ing messes right now.

Tennessee was a one-trick pony before Henry went down, and now they're missing that pony.

I really have a hard time believing that there's actually Alex Smith groupies out there.

Do some people really beat their meat to check downs and divisional round exits?

It's just a bizarre concept...

When we were 3-4. Everyone thought the #1 seed and Home field advantage was gone. But, after today, is still a possibility.

We are 1 game back with 6 to play. Some teams have 7 games to play. Sure it’s a long shot. So was HFA in 2019 until Fitzmagic happened. Even if we are the #2 seed, we will get 2 home games to start the playoffs.

Let’s win the west first. That Thursday game is gonna suck. Going on the road on a short week vs chargers.

The road?

You mean Arrowhead Further West?

Knowing them, they'll probably win all of those and lose to the Jaguars and Texans.

NE and SF seem like the only potential bumps in Tennessee's road unless they drop another turd like today.

I'd say it seems more likely than not Baltimore loses at least 2 more with their slate, definitely rough with CLE twice, GB, at CIN, and LA.

I don't think NE can beat BUF, especially twice, so they probably lose at least one more and probably a couple.

We don't have an easy slate at LAC, at CIN, and at DEN the way we're barely scraping wins out. Yes, a win's a win, but that doesn't mean I feel overconfident in running the table.

Buffalo has a pretty tough road the next few weeks. They probably lose a couple of those games.

The Chargers at DEN, at CIN, us, and at LV don't seem like guarantees.

If I had to pick a team to get the #1 seed, it's still TEN with fairly high odds. I think you could put the rest in a mixing bowl.

I'm laughing at how much you ****ing suck as a person lol