ChiefsPlanet - Peter King's Mock

One man's informed mock draft

Here's the problem with mock drafts: I had my top 13 done Sunday morning. I was pretty happy with it. (The way I look at it is after the top 10 or 12, predicting the draft is fruitless anyway, like picking the Trifecta at a dog track, so I concentrate on trying to be remotely competent at the top.) But after talking to two teams' final-deciders in a 20-minute span, I decided that everything I knew was blown to smithereens. If Jake Long signs with Miami, every one of the smart guys on the planet is screwed.

This is the most fluid draft at the top since 2004, when the Manning-Rivers stuff was swirling. So before I give you my first-round picks, understand the following things that I know to be true this morning make this draft hard to predict:

• Miami has a real chance of getting Jake Long signed as the No. 1 pick.

• St. Louis doesn't want Vernon Gholston; so if Long does go to Miami, Gholston could slide.

• This one really surprises me, and at first I didn't think it was true, but New Orleans is serious about trading into the top four -- preferably for LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey but not only for Dorsey. Wish I could tell you the other apple of their eye, but I don't know who he is.

• I have been saying Dorsey to Atlanta for a month. I heard two things this weekend that are shifting me northward, to Matt Ryan.

• The Jets love Matt Ryan. If I were Kellen Clemens, that would be a worrisome thing.

• If Ryan is sitting there at six or seven, I expect Detroit, Carolina and Chicago to inquire about trading up.

• The hot name as we enter the final five pre-draft days? Michigan quarterback Chad Henne. Two scouts I trust told me over the weekend they like him better than they like Ryan. There's a team somewhere between 8 and 17 -- and I can't figure out which one -- interested in trading down a few slots and drafting Henne with a first-round pick.

• The Saints and Jeremy Shockey's rookie-year offensive coordinator, Sean Payton, are still hot for the tight end. It won't get done if the Giants insist on receiving in-his-prime, 25-year-old safety Roman Harper (a 2006 second-round pick), plus the 40th pick in the draft. Harper's the best player in New Orleans' secondary, and to trade him and a second-round pick for an injury-plagued tight end who will be 28 on opening day is not an equitable deal. If the Giants want, say, Harper and a sixth-round pick for Shockey, or a second- and sixth-rounder for him, then I could see the trade getting done.

What follows is my best guess about the how the first round will go. Operative words here: "best guess.''

1. Miami. T Jake Long, Michigan. Word on the agent street is that Tom Condon is trying to find a compromise with Bill Parcells so that Jake Long, not defensive end Vernon Gholston, will be the Dolphins' first pick. We've all assumed (me, until now) that Parcells would see the same flash of Lawrence Taylor in Gholston that he saw in DeMarcus Ware. I'm sure he does. But he also sees some of Jumbo Elliott -- his favorite offensive lineman ever -- in Jake Long.

Long probably makes the most sense because Parcells would kill for a 55-45 run-pass percentage in Miami. He loves to run right and he could stick Long at right tackle for the next 10 years and know the team was solid there. This could blow up, of course, and it well may. I wouldn't be surprised if the Dolphins issue a statement Friday saying they've agreed to terms with Gholston, because Condon is confident Long will be the second pick, to the Rams, and that he'll still get most or all of the money he would have gotten from Miami. My one issue with that plan is there's no guarantee the Rams will take Long if he's there, and Condon has to know that.

2. St. Louis. DE Chris Long, Virginia. The Rams have Jake Long, Chris Long and Dorsey atop their board, so they'd be thrilled to see Gholston go No. 1. They'd be bummed with my scenario about the Michigan tackle going to Miami. They know they need a tackle, what with Alex Barron, who does not like football, and Orlando Pace, who last was healthy for 16 games during the Coolidge Administration. But now that Long is gone, they have a choice to make. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett loves Dorsey. Others in the organization prefer Chris Long. It's an interesting dilemma. If it's Dorsey, they could move last year's top pick, Adam Carriker, to defensive end. And if it's Long, Carriker can stay inside and Long and Leonard Little would be the bookend rushers for as long as Little, 33, can get to the quarterback. This is a close one. I won't be at all surprised if it's Dorsey.

3. Atlanta. QB Matt Ryan, Boston College. Did everyone get the hint nine days ago when Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff borrowed owner Arthur Blank's G-4 jet for the day and took coach Mike Smith over to Baton Rouge for a love-in with Dorsey ... and then Dorsey visited the Falcons' facility last week to see everyone else in the organization?

How's this for a surprise: I say Atlanta will take Ryan even if Dorsey's on the board. Then everyone will say it was the owner's pick. Not so. With Dimitroff's background in football, I'm convinced he'd never have taken this job if he felt Blank's heavy hand on his shoulder for the first pick. It's logical to think Blank wants Ryan for the billboard-on-I-85 factor. But if this pick is Ryan, it will be because Dimitroff and Smith think it's best for the franchise.

Now for Ryan. My buddy Don "Donnie Brasco'' Banks is always telling me how gullible I am. Brasco likes baseball, and I called him a couple of years ago after seeing Juan Acevedo pitch in a spring-training game and told him, "Juan Acevedo's gonna win 15 games this year.'' He didn't come close. I admit to getting sucked in a bit by players I like. So write this down, you who keep records of how badly I screw up predictions: Matt Ryan is going to be a star in the NFL. You can feel it being around him -- he's got that I-won't-be-denied demeanor that Peyton Manning had 10 years ago. He's got a plus arm, he knows how to get players around him to play better, and he loves having the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

4. Oakland. DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU. This guy is Warren Sapp Jr. If Dorsey's still on the board, I see the Saints trying hard to trade into this spot to get him. It might work. If he's not, my guess is Chris Long, who actually doesn't mind the gargantuan shadow his father will cast if Chris goes to the Raiders. One thing about the Raiders, though: They don't call the place the Black Hole for nothing. They're also the Black Hole for draft nuggets. I don't feel confident predicting anything they'd do, except I don't think they'll pick Darren McFadden, because they think Michael Bush will come back strong from his 2006 broken leg and be an every-down back, potentially this year.

5. Kansas City. T Ryan Clady, Boise State. Two things I hear here -- coach Herman Edwards likes Gholston and superscout Bill Kuharich isn't sold on any of the corners as the No. 5 overall pick. In the end, the pick is rather obvious -- a tackle who can play either side to protect a quarterback, Brodie Croyle, no one is convinced can play. But they'd like to give him a real chance.

6. New York Jets. RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas. Think of the New York offense. Anything stand out? Nope. Laveranues Coles is a decent deep threat, but not the explosive playmaker you'd like. This team has spent $94 million guaranteed on five players this offseason (Calvin Pace, Kris Jenkins, Damien Woody, Alan Faneca, Kerry Rhodes), and Jenkins, Woody and Faneca are win-now signings. McFadden's a win-now pick.

7. New England. DE Vernon Gholston, Ohio State. I think the Patriots will sniff around a couple of guys this week, most notably Chris Long in the off-chance he makes it to No. 7, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade up to the Chiefs' pick if they think the Jets might be Gholston people. Remember how weak the Patriot rush was in the Super Bowl -- and fairly consistently weak at points late in the season? Richard Seymour's postseason: 12 quarters, zero quarterback pressures or sacks. New England has to address that.

The one thing that would stun me is a cornerback. Bill Belichick, in Cleveland and in New England, has had 14 first-round picks, and only once did he take a cornerback -- Antonio Langham, the just-okay DB from Alabama in 1994, picked way too high at No. 9 overall. The Patriots plucked Asante Samuel in the fourth round. They're far more likely to help their front seven if they pick at No. 7, then take a cornerback down the line.

8. Baltimore. CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State. No playoff contender needs a cornerback more than the Ravens. They either sit here and pick the one they like, or trade down a few slots to choose the one they can get while adding a second- or third-round pick to move. My bet is on a trade.

9. Cincinnati. DT Sedrick Ellis, USC. Best player remaining on the board. By far.

10. New Orleans. CB Mike Jenkins, South Florida. The Saints are working hard to stack the first-round corners in the right order, which leads me to believe they'll pick one of them ... if they don't trade up, and if the really good defensive linemen are gone.

11. Buffalo. WR Devin Thomas, Michigan State. The negatives: Only a one-year starter, not always focused on the task at hand, one leg is shorter than the other. The positives: a 6-2, 4.45-ish deep threat with good hands. It might take him a year, but he should be a good pro.

12. Denver. LB Keith Rivers, USC. The Patriots could trade down into this area and be happy to get Rivers, the best playmaking linebacker in this draft --though he's slightly light for them. Denver seems to have a perennial need at this position. The Broncos like Rashard Mendenhall, but Mike Shanahan has always found running backs in later rounds.

13. Carolina. RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon. Some teams are scared off by his turf-toe surgery, and some artificial-turf teams will likely steer clear of him. He may not be ready for the start of training camp, but the Panthers think it's worth taking a mini-risk on a 235-pound back who -- with the toe throbbing -- ran a 4.45 40 two months ago.

14. Chicago. OT Jeff Otah, Pittsburgh. Interesting call here. I could see the Bears being tempted to take a runner, but the depth in the running-back class is sufficient to allow them to wait until round two or three. Plus, I don't think they're ready to bury Cedric Benson yet -- though they should be.

15. Detroit. DE Derrick Harvey, Florida. Not out of the question that the Leos could take a running back here, but this pick is in line with the staff's belief that the front seven has to be fixed, and it has to be fixed now.

16. Arizona. CB Leodis McKelvin, Troy. Odd. From what I read, I thought there was already a jersey in the New England Patriots Pro Shop in Foxboro with "MCKELVIN'' stitched on the back.

17. Minnesota. WR Limas Sweed, Texas. The Vikings need a pass-rushing defensive end, stud offensive lineman and big-time receiver, and they'll think long and hard about Vandy tackle Chris Williams. But they take the big target this offense needs to replace mammoth 2005 first-round bust Troy Williamson. Lots of opinions about Sweed, but the one thing all scouts agree on is he's the hardest-working receiver in the draft. He probably plays a little faster than his 4.5 speed.

18. Houston. OT Chris Williams, Vanderbilt. A gimme. The Texans need a long-term left tackle -- and if they don't take this prototypical left tackle prospect, the team picking right behind them will.

19. Philadelphia. WR/KR DeSean Jackson, Cal. After the draft, Andy Reid will call Donovan McNabb and say, "We got you a 4.4-in-the-40 deep threat. He even returns punts. Now you've got to make this offense more vertical.''

20. Baltimore (in a trade with Tampa Bay). QB Chad Henne, Michigan. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens trade lower in round one and pick up Joe Flacco, the Delaware wunderkind. The organization likes both the more-polished Henne and the kid with the best arm in the draft, Flacco. My gut feeling is that Henne's the pick, in part because he's prepared to play earlier.

21. Washington. DE Phillip Merling, Clemson. The Redskins would love to get a deep threat like DeSean Jackson for quarterback Jason Campbell, but they need to address both lines first. The best available lineman is Merling, whose sports hernia surgery has scared off a few teams.

22. Dallas. RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois. Jerry Jones is dancing in the draft room -- he didn't have to trade into the top of the draft for a back, and he ends up with a guy some in our business think is better and a lower risk than Darren McFadden. One question, though: Why couldn't Mendenhall beat out Pierre Thomas at Illinois two years ago?

23. Pittsburgh. G/T Branden Albert, Virginia. Might have gotten overrated in the pre-draft media mayhem; I saw him as high as five in one mock draft. The Steelers have to draft two or three offensive lineman to address a position group that lost its best two players (Jeff Hartings, Alan Faneca) the last two offseasons and isn't as good as its reputation right now.

24. Tennessee. LB Jerod Mayo, Tennessee. Not a position of great need -- maybe Calais Campbell of Miami (Fla.) would be smarter -- but the Titans are always looking for defensive playmakers. I have a feeling defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will be standing on his head, begging his bosses to take Mayo if he's there.

25. Seattle. DE Kentwan Balmer, North Carolina. I love what Don Banks wrote about this guy. He said he hoped the Ravens picked him, so he could be Balmer of the Bal'mer Ravens.

26. Carolina (in trade from Jacksonville). QB Brian Brohm, Louisville. The one thing about draft analysis is two or three guys a year invariably get hosed with all the time teams have to play with in February, March and April. This year's prime victim: Brohm, who likely would have been a top-five pick last year had he come out as a junior. Instead, he stayed in school and completed 65 percent of his passes for 30 touchdowns on a college team with a poor defense and a .500 record. So now he's got the plague all of a sudden. Someone's going to get a great bargain with this kid. I picked Carolina because John Fox and Marty Hurney are smart.

27. San Diego. RB Felix Jones, Arkansas. Some people describe him as Michael Turner II.

28. Dallas. CB Aqib Talib, Kansas. If the Cowboys can get a veteran receiver in exchange for this pick -- Roy Williams would be the preference -- they'll jump at it. If not, they'll solve the cornerback need and hope to get an experienced receiver this summer.

29. San Francisco. OT Gosder Cherilus, Boston College. They need someone to keep the quarterback upright.

30. Green Bay. TE Dustin Keller, Purdue. A Mike Mayock special. And I like the NFL Network draft analyst's reasoning -- Keller's the most athletic and pro-ready package at tight end in the draft, and tight end is a need position for the Pack.

31. New York Giants. S Tyrell Johnson, Arkansas State. Jerry Reese won't shy away from smaller-college guys, and Johnson fits the Giants' mold perfectly. What's not to like about the Sun Belt Conference's all-time sack leader -- weighing 204 pounds with 4.4 40 speed -- who was a starter at ASU the day he walked onto campus (45 games total) and is the strongest defensive back in the draft? One more thing: He has already begun working on his master's degree.