What are the odds of KC drafting specific players?
 

Give me your odds, adding to 100 percent, of various players being drafted by the Chiefs in the first round.

I'll offer mine, without knowing much about the draft since I haven't bought my draft magazine yet.


The Chiefs' pick will be....


Jimmy Clauson - 29%
Eric Berry - 23%
Dan Williams - 21%
Brian Bulaga - 8%
Russell Okung - 6%
Gerald McCoy - 5%
Trent Williams - 3%
Ndamukong Suh - 1%
Earl Thomas - 1%
C.J. Spiller - 1%
Earl Thomas - 1%
Joe Haden - 1%

Dan Williams 60%
Eric Berry 35%
Jimmy Clausen 5%

Dan Williams 33%
Eric Berry 33%
Brian Bulaga 30%
Anyone else 3%

Dan Williams 75%
Eric Berry 20%
Jimmy Claussen 5%

Dan Williams 50%
Eric Berry 25%
Bryan Bulaga 15%
Russell Okung 5%
Jimmy Clausen 5%

Someone I don't want to see them pick.

99.9%

I know even less about the draft than you do because I've been reading some of the our resident draft "expert" posts, but does this mean that there's actually a 2% chance of Earl Thomas getting drafted or are there two Earl Thomases?

My percentages:

Eric Berry 33%
Jimmy Clausen 33%
Dan Williams 15%
Rolando McClain 6%
Brian Baluga 6%
Trent Williams 6%
Russell Okung 1%

oh. ummmm, earl is so good that they will only let him play half time for two teams, or it'll destroy the balance of the league.
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Eric Berry - 50%
Dan williams - 25%
Jimmy Dick Clausen - 23%
Other - 2%
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Rudy!!!Rudy!!!Rudy!!!

You can't assign arbitrary numbers to players like this. It has zero basis in reality.

Mine aren't arbitrary. Mine are based on extensive discussions with Chiefs coaches and player personnel guys and a phone call to a telepsychic who helped me understand what the 4 teams ahead of the Chiefs are planning to do. My numbers reflect the infighting that is still going on at Chiefs HQ and the likelihood that any given advocacy group will eventually prevail.

In seriousness, this is just an exercise in quantifying a statement like "I think the Chiefs will draft X, but I could see them drafting Y or Z instead and I leave room for the small possibility that they'll do something really off the wall and end up taking A, B, or C. There's nothing less real about this than about any of the other draft predictions that are made here.

Odds of you sucking that same players nuts and making a post in a few months telling everyone how 'you knew he would be a stud":

Incredibly also 99.9%