My completely uninformed take on the Ravens game that will surely waste your time.
 

Hi.

So I've watched over a few Ravens games from the past three weeks and a couple of the primetime games from earlier in the year, and I've watched the Chiefs religiously all season. I've scoured the turnover ratios and compared both teams in the trenches. I've checked the weather forecast for Arrowhead for Sunday.

My completely unimportant conclusion is that this game is much closer to being a pure tossup than people make it out to be. Primarily because the scoring total between both teams won't surpass 20 points.

My prediction is that this game will end up with a silly, SportsCenter-defying 10-9 score.

The Ravens have a ton of talent on the offensive side on the ball, but it's been far more common this season that they simply haven't been able to put it together, rather than times where they have.

Rice is the only thing that's consistent on that offense. Everything on that offense is on again, off again. Flacco has had as many iffy games as he had good games this year. He can be had. His receivers, and that includes Derrick Mason, Boldin, and Hoosyermama, struggle to get open and match up pretty well with our secondary in terms of physicality. (Heap is a good player but he's not a world-beater.) Their offensive line falters quite a bit as well, and can get spanked if we put the right line-ups in (my vote is a Dorsey-Smith-Jackson DL for most of the game).

Rice, however, is an absolute beast that you MUST account for. Here's the thing, though -- the Ravens treat Ray Rice a lot like the Chiefs treat Jamaal Charles. They almost never give him the ball as much as he deserves. There have been as many games this season where he walks out with 10 carries as there are when he gets 20. He is a receiving threat out of the backfield, but the Chiefs don't really get smoked with RBs out of the backfield...

The Ravens will be able to move the ball occasionally, but the conditions in this game may make it impossible for them to sustain any kind of drive with our defensive weapons. Especially if the Chiefs can consistently get into the backfield, we have a chance to pitch a near shutout on this offense.

This is all necessary because our offense will be facing almost insurmountable odds against a front seven, especially a DL, that will crush the interior of our OL. But we've spent tons of time talking about the troubles the offense will have, although I think a good recovery by Bowe and a quick incorporation of Kevin Curtis may finally give us a complete-enough offense to put up a few field goals.

In this game, field goals can be enough.

In the end, I think the score will be so low that this game will come down to one or two MAJOR errors by one team to give the other a fatal opportunity take the win.

Both teams have been mistake prone all season. Neither are the epitome of disciplined, mistake-free squad, though both have had their flashes.

So this game, IMO, is basically a tossup. I won't pretend to know which side of the coin will land.

Yep i think the match-up of the game will be Rice vs Berry. If berry can shadow rice and contain him somewhat so he doesnt explode we will pull the upset

Baltimore is not as good as people think they are. I agree this will be a low scoring game that's pretty much a tossup.

Not a time waster.

You mean 16-10 Chiefs?

I'm not sure our DL can consistenty stop the run enough to keep the over/under under 20.

But man its good when you talk football.
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10-9 Chiefs.

Maybe. I think 10-9 Ravens is just as likely.

It's going to be a silly low-scoring game.

Well the over/under is 41. You might as well fly to Vegas, put your life savings on the under, go to the game, fly back to Vegas pick up your life savings * 2 and go home up a bunch of money.

Edit: Go to Pittsburgh/New England, then the other, then Dallas, then home.

They certainly can when we play the right DL.

Use Edwards sparingly. Smith at DE sparingly.

Plug a hungry Shaun Smith in the middle. Give him some help with Belcher. T.Jack has been a nightmare at LDE for the last quarter of the year -- utilize your blue chip player on a hot streak. Bring in Gilberry when you have them on their heels. Slide Edwards over to a 3-tech to Hali's side of the protection schemes turn out to be ridiculously Hali-obsessed. Edwards can get penetration.

Our DL is not a total fraud.

Do you trust Crennel to use the correct packages? I'll be ****ing pissed if this turns out just like the Raider game.

Crennel has been money 80% of the time this season, and has been on point against the best offenses we've played. When the stakes get higher, he's responded.

Weis is the coordinator I'm concerned over. Not Crennel.

THe game is up to a coin toss...so, you're predicting it goes to overtime?

herp derp!

PBJ

My hopes are that Hali dominates a injured Oher that leads the league in false starts in a stadium that leads theNFL in causing false starts and causes him into some ill timed throws that turn into interceptions and then after we are up and its late in the game, Hali strips Flacco of the ball and puts the nail in the coffin.

Please GOD let it happen.

I like your take on Ngata. The Ngata/Suggs matchup against the Chiefs o-line could be a critical factor. After what happened last weekend, early pressure on Cassel could cause his mechanics to break down again, and that could be disastrous for the Chiefs.

I'd think Weis would want to slow the Ravens pass rush early by running Charles wide and getting DMC the ball in space on short passes.

On offense, we MUST come out and show them a lot of stuff we haven't used yet. If we come out and run a lot of plays we have put on tape, that veteran defense will be ready to pounce.

Ive said i before, but I hope we come out with DMC and Charles BOTH in the backfield and put em in motion (or shift) to get them into advantageous matchups for us.

I dont see this as a game that Jones can help us a whole lot as that older defense can be beat by quickness and speed, but has shown to be as physical as any defense in the league.

We have a good chance at winning this one, but we MUST have a GREAT gameplan to do so.

Offensively, they don't scare me at all. We match up very well in that regard. Bolden is still Bolden so you have to respect that but Mason and Hoosyourmama are washed up. Heap is a shell of his former self. Stallworth, they rarely pass to. Their Oline is BAD and Oher is banged up. Flacco is grossly overrated and REALLY stinks in the playoffs. I don't know why people are worried about Ray Rice. We have done much better against Ray Rice type backs than we have against big backs.

Defensively, they are overrated. They can't rush the passer. Their "vaunted run defense" is overrated. If you look at their games, they aren't really stopping the teams #1 back. They are doing a great job against backups. (IE, Charles will get his yards and Thomas will get 2.2 YPC). If you look at the list below, not only aren't the stopping teams #1 RB's but they haven't faced a back of the caliber of Charles except Adrian Foster, who averaged 5.0 YPC.

Thomlinson -- 5.6 YPC
Cedric Benson -- 3.4 YPC (about his average)
Peyton Hillis -- 6.5 YPC
Mendenhall -- 3.2 (average is 3.9 over the season, but this was with Charlie Batch in at QB)
Moroney -- 4.5 (6 carries, denver hardly ran it)
Woodhead -- 5.7 (never heard of him, 11/63 for NE)
Fred Jackson -- 3.2 (who?)
Ronnie Brown -- 6.6
Michael Turner 2.3 (first good RB that they've stopped. 9 games into the season. Granted, anyone that watches football knows that he's lost a step)
M. Goodson -- 5.5 YPC (20/120..who?)
Blount -- 4.2 YPC
Mendenhall -- 2.4 YPC (rematch wasn't good. Big Ben was in, so no excuse. Still a 3.9 YPC back though)
Adrian Foster -- 5.0 YPC
Pierre Thomas 3.3 YPC (Year average is 3.2)
Peyton Hillis -- 2.9 YPC (McCoy was in, terrible offensive day overall by the Browns)
Benson --2.5 YPC (It's the Bengals)

The more and more that I look at the Ravens, the more I think we have a better than 50/50 chance to win.