Sagarin NFL Ratings: Chiefs #8 (#32 SOS)
 

Anyone disagree? In the rating we have the worst schedule in the NFL so far, with Denver only 1 slot better. After this week when they've played Jax it might change, but we are playing the 2-3 Raiders so it might still be close.


http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm



On point differential however, we have an expected W/L record of 4.3-0.7 whereas Denver is only 3.8-1.2. However, the simple rating system (Pro Football Reference) has them at a whopping 15.4 vs us at 8.9 based on our low SOS. We're behind the same Sagarin teams like Seattle, Indy, NE, etc:

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...s/kan/2013.htm




I'm having trouble finding any computer ranking that puts us in the Top 5. This computer ranking system was the worst at 16th overall which seems stupid but at least he's predicting a 6.03 point win vs Oakland Sunday:
http://talismanred.com/ratings/nfl.shtml

At the start of the season, some info from last year is incorporated into the ranking, and at some point drops out.

Its such a bad schedule due to how terrible the NFC EAst is, and thats partly due to how the AFC West has improved as a whole by a lot and destroyed the NFC EAst. Plus Jacksonville..

Computer Rankings!!!

This doesn't go against the assertion that the Chiefs have played mostly a docket of shitty teams thus far, but somebody should do the math of the SOS of undefeated teams in the NFL. Say, for 5-0 teams historically. As a 5-0 team, that means you've dealt a loss to each team on your schedule. Naturally, that will lower the overall record of your opponents. Because you've been handing them losses.

Also, three of the under .500 teams the Chiefs have faced (Cowboys, Eagles, Giants) have also played the Broncos, another 5-0 team. There's another 3 losses. Those three teams, sure, are kinda poopy and smelly, but it doesn't help a poopy and smelly team to have had to face TWO perfect teams through the first 5 weeks of the season.

I'm willing to bet that a good portion of 5-0 teams in NFL history had low strengths of schedule. That's kinda how it works out, mathematically.

I'll say this,

You look at the talent on this team, and you look at the first nine games of the year.

Every single one of us would say "the Chiefs SHOULD have a good chance to win all of those games, but I bet they end up 8-1 or 7-2."

If we go into the bye 9-0, I'd say we did our job exactly as it needed to be done.

We're not pretending to be anything other than we are. And we are going to bring every ounce of everything we can against the Broncos.

It bears mentioning that the Cowboys and Eagles are 2-1 against non-Chiefs/Broncos teams.

The Giants are 0-4. The Jags are also 0fers.

The Titans are 3-1 against non-Chiefs teams.

My contention is that we've beaten three real good teams, and two shitrockets.

Shitrockets that we've beaten by at least three touchdowns each, by the way. This team is for real.

We lose one of those games before the bye and this place melts down lol

We're due for a letdown game eventually. The question is can we right the ship in-game fast enough to fix it.

My guess is our letdown game is Cleveland. Not necessarily a loss, but Cleveland is sneaking up on everybody this year.

Pretty sure this team will be on its game for Oakland, Houston, and Buffalo.

Cleveland's defense is sneaky good. Ray Horton is the guy everybody wanted as coordinator here, and I think The Bad Guy's source even said Horton was Andy's #1 choice for the job. We'd be running the same thing we're doing right now with Bob Newhart if we had Horton, so needless to say, that defense can murder people like ours does. I could see us struggling big time on offense, and if we don't rack up turnovers, we'll be in for a tough game.

It's a good thing that Brandon Weeden is a shithead.

Yeah...pick that game for our letdown game.

Losing to the Browns would be embarrasing. I still say Houston concerns me most. They are out gaining their opponents by like over 100 yards a game I heard.

beating the Cowboys and Eagles are two impressive victories. Tennessee wasn't a layup.

All pointless when their QB is throwing INT's all over the place.

Also before the season started, almost everybody expected Dallas,Philly & NY Giants to be good, not so much Tenn., so these teams have all plummeted and switched places.

As the season goes forward, Dallas will be well above 500, as will Tenn, one could say Philly is a possibility.

The Giants are just toast as well as the Jags.

How good is RG3 & Wash going to be when we face them on the road ? Or Bufffalo, Cleveland is better than first thought too, so our low SOS will climb up.