What's wrong with Mecole Hardman - Part 2
 

Spoiler alert!

Nothing is wrong with him! Unless you consider Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce as being a problem.

Mecole was 3rd on the team in targets (62), rec yards (560), and rec TDs (4). Those stats are right in line with any other teams 3rd most productive receiver and none of those other teams had 2 guys that were 1st team AP in front of that guy.

Green Bay Packers #1 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Robert Tonyan - 59 targets, 52 rec, 586 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 212
Rec - 148
Yards - 2064

Buffalo Bills #2 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Gabriel Davis - 62 targets, 35 rec, 599 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 273
Rec - 209
Yards - 2502

Tampa Bay Buccaneers #3 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Rob Gronkowski - 77 targets, 45 rec, 623 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 193
Rec - 135
Yards - 1846

Tennessee Titans #4 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Jonnu Smith - 65 targets, 41 rec, 448 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 198
Rec - 135
Yards - 2059

New Orleans Saints #5 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Jared Cook - 60 targets, 37 rec, 504 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 189
Rec - 144
Yards - 1482

Baltimore Ravens #7 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Willie Snead - 48 targets, 33 rec, 432 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 188
Rec - 116
Yards - 1470

Seattle Seahawks #8 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
David Moore - 47 targets, 35 rec, 417 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 261
Rec - 183
Yards - 2357

Indianapolis Colts #9 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Michael Pittman Jr. - 61 targets, 40 rec, 503 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 164
Rec - 99
Yards - 1391

Las Vegas Raiders #10 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Hunter Renfrow - 77 targets, 56 rec, 656 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 227
Rec - 155
Yards - 2092

Average for top 10 scoring offense's 3rd most productive receiving option :

Targets - 62
Receptions - 41
Yards - 530

Average for top 10 scoring offense's top 2 most productive receiving options combined :

Targets - 212
Receptions - 147
Yards - 1918


This is how Hardman stacks up against the other teams 3rd receiving option

Targets - 62 (62 avg)
Receptions - 41 (41 avg)
Yards - 560 (530 avg)

Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce combined

Targets - 280 (most in group)
Receptions - 192 (2nd most in group)
Yards - 2692 (most in group)

So what we can see from these stats above is that nothing is up with Mecole Hardman. His targets and reception matched the average of the 9 other top offenses 3rd receiving option and he was above average in yards, but the big huge difference is Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill just happen to be on the same team as him. Those two have 68 more combined targets, 45 more combined receptions, and 774 more combined yards than the others teams top 2 receiving threats.

TLDR;

Nothing is wrong, he's right in line with the other teams 3rd most productive pass catchers. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are monsters and the best pass catching duo in a long ass time.

PS:

Seriously Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are so good! There was only 11 QBs with more TD passes than those 2 had receiving TDs.

PSS:

****ing Cam Newton started 15 games and had 45 less passing yards than Hill and Kelce had rec yards in the same amount of games!

PSSS:

****ing MVP Lamar had 65 more passing yards than Hill and Kelce had rec yards and they tied for the same amount of passing TDs to receiving TDs.

You put a lot of effort into this and for that, I appreciate you.

Thank you for collecting these stats. Mecole stacks up well with them.

However, stats don't always tell the whole story, IMHO. How many drops or misplays? Now, what is the context of those drops? On 1st and 10? or on 3rd and 10? Or on 4th and 10? How many plays where you don't look back at the qb, who is scrambling for his life and counting on you to make a catch? These are the things that would be hard/impossible to quantify, but they are very maddening for the fanbase, and cause us to say things about his receiving abilities that his pure stats don't show. Again, IMHO

Andre Johnson led the league in drop passes a couple times.

Ratio

I think most peoples frustration with Mecole is him getting chewed on by Mahomes after a third and medium when the other two were double teamed, and Hardman usaully doesnt look for the ball or looks too late or just keeps streaking down the sideline instead of sitting down between zones.

All this reveals is you shouldn't judge a player on the box score.

How many TDs for all those receivers?

How many drops for all?

Fumbles?

You did a great analysis, about 90-95% worth. Nice job.

It's #17's fault & not because I warshed my lucky jersey. Uhmmm nachos

This is just like when Saints players try to convince themselves Taysom Hill isn't a gadget player by just posting his stats with no context

Nothing is wrong with him except being the dumbest football IQ on the field at any given time.

I haven't given up on hardman becoming a useful receiving threat.

For one thing, he came into the league at 21. Which means last year was his age 22 season, and his age 22 season actually stacks up pretty well vs. Tyreek HIll's first year.

Second, Hardman didn't have a normal offseason program in which to develop his receiving skills between his 1st and second years. Expecting a Hill-like leap in receiving skills was never realistic.

However, beyond the numbers, Hardman doesn't show that ball tracking ability and the capacity to get out of breaks that Hill showed at the end of his rookie year.

What I hope is that Hardman can get smarter this offseason through film study about breaking off routes and finding soft areas in zones. Adding those to his game would make him vastly more useful and turn him into a viable no. 3 threat with big play upside.


Will he? Who knows, and I don't think you can bank on it. But, I don't think it's impossible.

He sucks.

thanks for clarifying that. I wonder if you can get a comment off the record from Patrick?

What's wrong?

Dude was always a project.

For the love of God this franchise needs to stop drafting projects in the 2nd rd.

This. I don't see it with him.