Before the season started, I projected the Chiefs to finish with a 12-5 record, identical to last season. The Chiefs appear to be on such a path with a 6-2 record at the midway point. They are tied atop the AFC standings with the Buffalo Bills, their biggest conference rival.
This season, however, has presented plenty of twists. The Chiefs traded for receiver Kadarius Toney and traded away cornerback Rashad Fenton. Four of the team’s victories have featured a comeback, a specialty for superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes. And their two losses have been inflicted by one of the AFC’s worst teams (the Indianapolis Colts) and one of its best (the Bills).
So what’s going to happen in the next few months? Here are seven predictions for the rest of the season and the early part of the offseason before the NFL Draft is held in Kansas City.
Mahomes will win the NFL MVP award
Granted, he’s the current front-runner to win the league’s most prestigious individual award, but there’s a lot of football left. Entering Week 10, Mahomes led the league in passing yards (2,605) and touchdowns (21) despite playing one fewer game than many quarterbacks. Continuing such production should propel Mahomes to his second MVP award in just his sixth year.
When Mahomes won the MVP award in 2018, his first season as a starter, he threw 50 touchdown passes. Mahomes might not reach that mark this season, but coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that he considers Mahomes to be a smarter quarterback, a gunslinger who has matured and thrived in his first season without star receiver Tyreek Hill.
“He’s a guy who can extend plays, and he gets the ball out of his hands so fast,” Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said of Mahomes in a conference call. “It’s hard to get to him. He’s tough to defend. You definitely appreciate how he plays the game. He’s a tough kid who can take some hits. It’s not reckless, either. It’s still controlled, and he does a great job of seeing the field.”
Odell Beckham Jr. will not join the Chiefs
For the second consecutive year, the Chiefs have shown plenty of interest in Beckham, the best free agent available who is also returning from a torn ACL. As a star receiver, Beckham can provide a boost during the Chiefs’ expected postseason run. The team also has $4.9 million in effective salary cap space, according to Over The Cap, to offer Beckham. But I think Beckham will sign with another contender, perhaps the Dallas Cowboys, who have almost $7 million in cap space and can likely give Beckham more snaps, targets and receptions since the Chiefs have six capable receivers on their roster.
Rookie Skyy Moore’s production will be ordinary, at best
Whether Beckham joins the Chiefs or not, Moore’s role appears to be a limited one for this season while veterans such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have played the most snaps. Moore hasn’t recorded a reception in the past two games. He could be used as a deep threat in one-on-one opportunities, and the Chiefs might use his quickness in the red zone and on short-yardage plays, but the slow pace of his development will continue.
Smith-Schuster will return to Kansas City for next season
Before Thursday’s practice, Smith-Schuster gave his most revealing answer this season about whether he wants to continue his career with the Chiefs.
“I would love to stay here, to be honest,” he said. “This offense is unbelievable, the coaching staff is unbelievable. If it was up to me, of course. You’re playing with one of the best quarterbacks.”
After signing a one-year deal with the Chiefs that could reach a maximum of $10.75 million, Smith-Schuster has already generated 44 receptions for 582 yards and two touchdowns. He acknowledged that his role in the offense, running routes alongside star tight end Travis Kelce, has worked the way he and the Chiefs envisioned.
“He’s an unbelievable player, very, very smart,” Smith-Schuster said of Kelce. “One of the best things I like about Travis is that he’s able to identify the defense and what coverage they’re in. I pretty much know it, too, so we kind of work hand-in-hand, that communication and playing with leverage versus a man team or a zone team.”
In the spring, the Chiefs and Smith-Schuster could agree to a two-year contract.
Chris Jones will lead all defensive tackles in pressures
Entering Sunday’s game, Jones is third in the statistic (32) behind the Tennessee Titans’ Jeffery Simmons and the New York Jets’ Quinnen Williams (both have 35). Williams has already played nine games, though, and Jones, in my opinion, is a better pass rusher than Simmons. An argument can be made that the Chiefs will have the lead more often in games in the second half of the season, leading Jones to excel in one-on-one matchups while the opposing team regularly attempts to pass the ball.
The Chiefs will face the Dolphins in the playoffs
The blockbuster trade centered on Hill has worked for both teams. The Chiefs used the draft picks from the Miami Dolphins to strengthen their roster with multiple rookies who have contributed. The Dolphins (6-3) have benefited from Hill’s high-quality skills; he leads the league with 1,104 receiving yards. The trade coming full circle this season would be for the Dolphins to reach the postseason and play the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium, the venue where fans used to cheer when Hill had the ball in his hands.
Arrowhead Stadium will host yet another AFC Championship Game
If the Chiefs are going to have the same record as last season, or one close to it, then we might as well project the conference’s final game to be played where it has been played the past four years. Although the Bills hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs, they could have a bit of a setback in the second half of the season if superstar quarterback Josh Allen’s elbow injury lingers. The Bills also could be tested by divisional rivals such as the Dolphins and the Jets.
Mahomes has continued the Chiefs’ dominance over the AFC West, and the team could take a commanding lead for the divisional crown in Week 11 with a victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. If the Chiefs surpass the Bills for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, they will have earned a first-round bye and home-field advantage. With a victory over the Dolphins — or the Baltimore Ravens or the Cincinnati Bengals — in the division round, the Chiefs will get an opportunity for redemption in the AFC Championship Game and to reach the Super Bowl. The outcome of the game, of course, will likely be determined by the Chiefs’ best player: Mahomes.
