ChiefsPlanet - Chiefs Luckiest teams

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Luckiest teams (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=346023)

https://64.media.tumblr.com/c1b95947...1a3548b489.pnj

https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/a...-of-nfl-teams/

The main reason I post this is because of the dropped int stat. The higher the number the more lucky a QB has been. Buffalo fans like to act like Mahomes has all these dropped INTs and he's middle of the pack at 0.26.

Look at the two highest, the only 2 above .36;

Buffalo Bills - 0.49
Tampa Bay Bucs - 0.61

Seems like Joshy and Tommy boy have gotten a lot of help with defenders dropping INTs.

That stat is BS. Tua had like 6 dropped INTs in one game.

Seems like a nice idea that was given like 10 minutes to put something together... hopefully they're actually digging into those a bit more since it's not nearly as black and white as their descriptions.

Quote:

Dropped Interception (dropped by opponent): When an opponent drops an interception, you get lucky. We assume that the intercepting team keeps possession at the spot of the drop.

Dropped Pass (dropped by opponent): When an opponent drops a pass, you get lucky. We assume the offense would gain yards after catch using the Next Gen Stats Expected YAC model.

Field Goals and Extra Points (attempted by opponent): When an opponent misses a kick, you get lucky, and when your opponent makes a kick, you get unlucky. Field goal make probabilities are based on the Next Gen Stats Field Goal Probability model.

Fumble Recoveries (by either team): When a team recovers a fumble, there’s a chance the luck of the bounce was involved. Fumble recovery probabilities are based on observed recovery percentages by when the fumble occurred (i.e., after a catch, during a rush, fumbled snap, muffed punt).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bearcat (Post 16595895)

I just liked the dropped int stat. I wish there was a site with more advanced stats

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445 (Post 16595893)

That stat is BS. Tua had like 6 dropped INTs in one game.

The problem with stuff like this is that It’s so subjective. Who gets to determine what’s a dropped INT vs what is an INT that couldn’t be caught because the QB put it in a place where the defender only got 1 hand on it? Is there a definition for what they used? Doubt it.

It also doesn’t take into account INT’s brought back due to defensive penalty, which is a extremely lucky occurrence and some QB’s get more than their fair share of those.

Chiefs are the most unlucky imo, because the refs always try to make us lose so that the league is interesting to watch.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dlphg9 (Post 16595952)

I just liked the dropped int stat. I wish there was a site with more advanced stats

Definitely, especially when you see Mahomes throwing rockets... it's not "luck" that a defender can't catch one of those. LMAO

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustRyan (Post 16596535)

On the second part, I have to disagree somewhat. You approach it as if the QB doesn't know that a penalty has been called, or will be called, against the defense. I often see Patrick throw the ball deep into coverage because he is 100% certain there is a penalty on the defense and he is just seeing if he can get lucky. Not all interceptions are of this type, but many are.