Quote:
Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ
I disagree because the Colts and Bill Polian had the choice to either draft Manning or Ryan Leaf and IIRC it was not an easy, shoe-in decision. Lots of pundits and draft experts were hyping the potential of Leaf and the limitations and problems of Manning (Manning had a much lower ceiling, not a strong armed QB, etc.).
So, there was absolutely a huge and conscious decision to take Manning over Leaf so it was indeed superior drafting. That was the Colts front office saying "we are taking Manning, even IF Leaf has more upside."
As for Luck and RG3, there was not nearly as big of a question about taking Luck over RG3 but there was still lots of people who said that RG3, much like Leaf, had more long term "upside" and potential to develop and blossom into a phenom later down the road. However, pretty much everyone agreed that Luck was a "can't miss" pick.
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I don't think you understand this luck versus skill concept. Of course it was a conscious decision. They all are. Teams spend countless hours studying prospects, pouring over reams of data, flying hither and yon to see them in the living flesh and then apply what they believe to be superior football acumen to the mix to take the guy they think will be the best available fit for their team. Sometimes they get it right and sometimes they get it wrong.
Pointing to a single decision where a guy got it right, doesn't really tell us much about whether he was lucky or good. I can tell you that there were plenty of Colts fans complaining about Polian's draft history despite the fact that he hit big with Manning just as there are people here in KC who complained about Carl Peterson's ability to draft even though he hit big with Derrick Thomas.