Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu
I don't think you understand this luck versus skill concept. Of course it was a conscious decision. They all are. Teams spend countless hours studying prospects, pouring over reams of data, flying hither and yon to see them in the living flesh and then apply what they believe to be superior football acumen to the mix to take the guy they think will be the best available fit for their team. Sometimes they get it right and sometimes they get it wrong.
Pointing to a single decision where a guy got it right, doesn't really tell us much about whether he was lucky or good. I can tell you that there were plenty of Colts fans complaining about Polian's draft history despite the fact that he hit big with Manning just as there are people here in KC who complained about Carl Peterson's ability to draft even though he hit big with Derrick Thomas.
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If you are saying that the way Manning panned out was as much luck as anything else I think you are wrong. When a team spends countless hours on a draft prospect and does indeed draft that guy, but the guy craps the bed and just sucks, are you suggesting this is "luck" too?
Every front office is a little different. What Reid and Co. see as a good draft prospect for their system will not be the same as what Elway and Co. see as a good prospect for their system. Now, is their some luck involved with things like injuries and a whatnot, sure. However, if a team does it's due diligence on a player, that luck factor should be minimized.
Where luck really plays a part IMHO is late round picks that turn into football gods like Tom Brady or Terrell Davis. Yes, indeed, those were some lucky picks as you are kidding yourself if you think Bill B. and Mike Shanahan knew what they were getting when they drafted those guys.