[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

If you are saying that the way Manning panned out was as much luck as anything else I think you are wrong. When a team spends countless hours on a draft prospect and does indeed draft that guy, but the guy craps the bed and just sucks, are you suggesting this is "luck" too?

Every front office is a little different. What Reid and Co. see as a good draft prospect for their system will not be the same as what Elway and Co. see as a good prospect for their system. Now, is their some luck involved with things like injuries and a whatnot, sure. However, if a team does it's due diligence on a player, that luck factor should be minimized.

Where luck really plays a part IMHO is late round picks that turn into football gods like Tom Brady or Terrell Davis. Yes, indeed, those were some lucky picks as you are kidding yourself if you think Bill B. and Mike Shanahan knew what they were getting when they drafted those guys.

I'm not saying that drafting Manning was luck. I'm saying that it's not clear whether it was luck or not and that your confidence that it wasn't isn't well founded.