[Old Dog]

Originally Posted by Old Dog

Magic number for Detroit is two. For us to get a 163rd for the division it would take a combination of 5 KC wins and Detroit losses over the weekend.

Originally Posted by alnorth

And those Detroit losses need to come at the hands of Minnesota. Not likely at all.

Just for fun, I'll calculate a back of the envelope probability. I will use these rough assumptions:

P(Detroit loss) = 40% per game
P(KC win) = 55% per game

Given that, then:

P(we outright win the division with no 163rd game) = 1.06%
P(we tie and force a tiebreaker game on Monday in Detroit) = 7.41%

That is.... actually more likely than I expected.

OK, lets assume the Twins are mailing it in and they only have a 1/3 chance of winning each game, which is pretty bad.

P(we outright win the division with no 163rd game) = 0.62%
P(we tie and force a tiebreaker game on Monday in Detroit) = 5.21%

Still decent, considering I thought it was hopeless.

OK, I guess we have about a 1 in 20 shot, give or take, of the Tigers not clinching the division by the end of Sunday.

How about now?