Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
Not given what has caused the .180.
His LD% since August is 25%. About 70% of your LDs end up as hits, so that alone should have his BA at about .180 even if no other ball type that he hit fell for a hit. His flyball percentage has gone up a bit, so that would cause some erosion in his average, especially since he didn't have many balls leave the park.
His BB% increased significantly in September and his K% went up. If it was only his K%, you could say that he wasn't seeing the ball well, but given that he's taking significantly more walks, he's simply seeing more pitches, and when you see more pitches, you strike out more often. Overall his K/BB% has stayed consistent
Baseball isn't uniform. A .300 hitter doesn't get three hits every ten ABs.
Unless he's battling some kind of injury that has sapped his power, there's no compelling argument that he's actually become a worse hitter; he's just had some rotten luck.
Here's a good way to consider it: Aoki in September: Chris Moneymaker lucky; Gordon in September: Martin Short in Pure Luck
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I'm not sure this part makes sense. I know a .300 hitter isn't going to get 3 hits every 10 ABs. But we're talking about two months here. That's a fairly good chunk of a season.
You said if you see more pitches, you strike out more often. But if you swing and miss, you are going to see more pitches. If his walks went up, it tells me his approach is the same, he's trying to be selective, but he's just not making contact as much. And when he is, he's hitting infield flies and harmless pop-ups.