Quote:
Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0
let's put math on it
we had about a .05% chance to score a run with Herrera at the plate
now, you pinch hit Butler for him...
we have a 80% chance of Dyson stealing 2nd base
then we have a 27% chance of Butler getting a base hit
so we probably had close a 1 in 5 shot of scoring a run there
...and how many blown saves have H D H accounted for this postseason?
I side with Yost. Gotta start the 7th with Herrera. Good move, IMO
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That 20% of a run is a hell of a lot more valuable than any potential downside from having Finnegan start the 7th, after Herrera already pitched in the 6th.