Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth
Again, I'm not talking about butterfly effect or time travel types of scenarios when you can look back, and point out that an event had an impact on later decisions in the game, that likely would have resulted in a different outcome had the event not happened.
I'm talking about this belief that you suddenly can do no wrong or that you "just know" you are now going to lose.
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Stop moving the goal posts, you clearly compared momentum to voodoo magic, and were condescending to those that suggested otherwise in the process. There is no doubt you know baseball, and generally I enjoy reading your posts and interacting with you. But it's ok to disagree, and for people to come to different conclusions, right or wrong.
I was definitely referring to a very real thing called psychological momentum, that you can see in players body language, and often their performance. Bill James disagrees, but Bill James knows numbers, not pressure situations on the mound or in the batters box.
Here's an excerpt from someone far more intelligent than I at least defining the topic at hand, "We know it as the "Big Mo", the "Hot Hand", and being "In The Zone" while the psychologists call it Psychological Momentum. But, does it really exist? Is it just a temporary shift in confidence and mood or does it actually change the outcome..."
As Jeff Greenwald put it in his article, Riding the Wave of Momentum, "The reason momentum is so powerful is because of the heightened sense of confidence it gives us -- the most important aspect of peak performance. There is a term in sport psychology known as self-efficacy, which is simply a player's belief in his/her ability to perform a specific task or shot. Typically, a player’s success depends on this efficacy. During a momentum shift, self-efficacy is very high and players have immediate proof their ability matches the challenge. As stated earlier, they then experience subsequent increases in energy and motivation, and gain a feeling of control. In addition, during a positive momentum shift, a player’s self-image also changes. He/she feels invincible and this takes the "performer self" to a higher level."
http://www.science20.com/sports_are_...m_sports-33165