[Rain Man]

#4 - A third party holds the U.S. presidency.

I voted yes on this.

It may just be a temporary hiccup, but Americans seem to be very tired of Democrats and Republicans, who do not really represent the mainstream population any more. We haven't had a new party formed since the Republicans, but the Bull Moose party made a good run, and at various times we've created Democrats and Whigs from the original Federalists. So it's not unprecedented.

The biggest challenge is that the two parties have built in financial perqs for themselves that make it very difficult to create a third party these days. But I think Americans are close to the point where a populist movement could take hold and climb up enough to get into the matching funds game. At least I hope so.

I think we have a third party president sometime in the next fifty years.