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kccrow · 01-15-2015, 05:16 PM

I have Maclin in a slot where I feel there is value vs. production. I signed him in the same area DeSean Jackson got signed. I wouldn't pay much more. I'd make an effort to sign him before Shorts, and if it took the money I have allocated to Shorts to get it done I'd use it, but that's the absolute maximum. No way Maclin gets in the 5 year 70+ million range with more than 30 guaranteed unless a franchise is both stupid and desperate.

The closest recent contract that might set up Maclin is Mike Wallace, and I thought the Dolphins wayyyyyyy overpaid. 5 years, 60 million with 27 guaranteed was too much for him. 19 of that 27 million was guaranteed salary too.

In any event, guaranteed money really matters most, and Maclin would be getting 16 million over the 1st two years of the deal. He'd get 11 million in year 1 and 5 million in year 2. DJax got 8.5 million in year 1 and 7.5 in year 2 in a very similar deal. There are only 6 receivers in the league that will have received more guaranteed (this excludes fully guaranteed 1st round rookie deals like Watkins, Jones, and Blackmon) and one tied. He'd rank 15th in overall average per year. I thikn that adequately puts Maclin in the correct range of production.

Maclin tied for 11th in receptions in 2014 and 9th in yards and 9th in TDs. That is great, but that has not been the normal for Maclin in his career. In 2013, Maclin was out. In 2012, he was ranked 22nd in receptions, 28th in yards, and 17th in TDs. In 2011, he was ranked 26th in receptions, 29th in yards, and 33rd in TDs. In 2010, he was ranked 19th in receptions, 18th in yards, and 7th in TDs. His rookie year of 2009, he was ranked 33rd in receptions, 34th in yards, and 37th in TDs.

Overall, he's averaged 15 games played, 69 receptions, 954 yards, and 7 TDs with average ranks of 22nd in receptions, 24th in yards, and 21st in TDs. Since his rookie year (2010 to 2014), his average rankings are 20th in receptions, 21st in yards, and 17th in TDs.

Point is, Maclin had a nice, top-10 year, but he barely averages top 20 for his career. Could Maclin potentially remain top 10? Yes. However, he could also easily dip back down to the average #1 that he has been. So, is being 6th in guaranteed money and 15th in average salary year fair? I think it is. I think his value is in that 7-8 million per range with 15-20 million guaranteed. Once you get outside of that, you're banking on him repeating 2014 over and over again. Speaking from a perspective of contracts, you're then looking at an average of 9-10 million per with 18-21 million guaranteed.

This is why I say, if I were to sign Maclin to a maximum contract, it would be around 5 years, 47 million with 20 million guaranteed. After that, he's too expensive for his production.

01-15-2015, 05:16 PM	#15
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $-1320000	I have Maclin in a slot where I feel there is value vs. production. I signed him in the same area DeSean Jackson got signed. I wouldn't pay much more. I'd make an effort to sign him before Shorts, and if it took the money I have allocated to Shorts to get it done I'd use it, but that's the absolute maximum. No way Maclin gets in the 5 year 70+ million range with more than 30 guaranteed unless a franchise is both stupid and desperate. The closest recent contract that might set up Maclin is Mike Wallace, and I thought the Dolphins wayyyyyyy overpaid. 5 years, 60 million with 27 guaranteed was too much for him. 19 of that 27 million was guaranteed salary too. In any event, guaranteed money really matters most, and Maclin would be getting 16 million over the 1st two years of the deal. He'd get 11 million in year 1 and 5 million in year 2. DJax got 8.5 million in year 1 and 7.5 in year 2 in a very similar deal. There are only 6 receivers in the league that will have received more guaranteed (this excludes fully guaranteed 1st round rookie deals like Watkins, Jones, and Blackmon) and one tied. He'd rank 15th in overall average per year. I thikn that adequately puts Maclin in the correct range of production. Maclin tied for 11th in receptions in 2014 and 9th in yards and 9th in TDs. That is great, but that has not been the normal for Maclin in his career. In 2013, Maclin was out. In 2012, he was ranked 22nd in receptions, 28th in yards, and 17th in TDs. In 2011, he was ranked 26th in receptions, 29th in yards, and 33rd in TDs. In 2010, he was ranked 19th in receptions, 18th in yards, and 7th in TDs. His rookie year of 2009, he was ranked 33rd in receptions, 34th in yards, and 37th in TDs. Overall, he's averaged 15 games played, 69 receptions, 954 yards, and 7 TDs with average ranks of 22nd in receptions, 24th in yards, and 21st in TDs. Since his rookie year (2010 to 2014), his average rankings are 20th in receptions, 21st in yards, and 17th in TDs. Point is, Maclin had a nice, top-10 year, but he barely averages top 20 for his career. Could Maclin potentially remain top 10? Yes. However, he could also easily dip back down to the average #1 that he has been. So, is being 6th in guaranteed money and 15th in average salary year fair? I think it is. I think his value is in that 7-8 million per range with 15-20 million guaranteed. Once you get outside of that, you're banking on him repeating 2014 over and over again. Speaking from a perspective of contracts, you're then looking at an average of 9-10 million per with 18-21 million guaranteed. This is why I say, if I were to sign Maclin to a maximum contract, it would be around 5 years, 47 million with 20 million guaranteed. After that, he's too expensive for his production.
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