full playmaker scores
The 2014 wide receiver draft class has only a year in the books, but is on track to possibly become the best ever. Ten rookie wide receivers went over 500 yards receiving in their initial season. Three of those went over 1,000. Although the success of these players is incredible, it can hardly be called surprising. Not only did scouts predict a big year for rookie receivers, but Football Outsiders' system for projecting wide receivers -- Playmaker Score -- anticipated that the 2014 class was loaded with wide receivers who were likely to be successful in the pros.
Can the 2015 draft class match its predecessors' accomplishments? According to Playmaker Score, probably not. Although the 2015 class includes some strong prospects and a sprinkling of interesting sleepers, there are also a number of players with bust potential, rated higher by scouts than by Playmaker Score. It adds up to a potentially good, but not great, class of pass-catchers.
What follows is a ranking of the top receiver prospects for 2015 according to our model, including a projection for the average number of regular-season receiving yards that each wide receiver will gain per year over the course of his first five NFL seasons (for a full explanation of how Playmaker Score works, you can find the criteria at the bottom of this article):
1. Amari Cooper, Alabama
Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 643 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 3 overall Similar historical prospects: Marvin Harrison, A.J. Green
Cooper is currently rated by Mel Kiper and Todd McShay as the best wide receiver prospect in this class, and he hits most of Playmaker's buttons. Cooper had an impressive junior campaign, gaining 1,727 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns. Moreover, there is also nothing about Cooper's situation that gives reason to doubt Playmaker's numbers. Unlike many wide receiver prospects in this year's draft, Cooper did not play in the spread, and he faced some of the toughest college defenses in the country. Historically, Cooper probably best compares to Indianapolis Colts great Marvin Harrison as a prospect; Cooper was not quite as dominant as Harrison was at Syracuse, but the mid-'90s Big East wasn't a match for today's SEC, either.
2. Nelson Agholor, USC
Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 501 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 37 overall Similar historical prospects: Terry Glenn, Ike Hilliard
Agholor hopes to break USC out of a wide receiver-producing slump that has included first-round busts such as Mike Williams and R. Jay Soward. More recent draft picks Robert Woods and Marqise Lee have had their moments, but haven't yet broken out. Agholor was a reasonably productive receiver at USC, with 1,313 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns.
3. Breshad Perriman, UCF
Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 491 Yards/season Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 45 overall Similar historical prospects: Kenny Britt, Darrell Jackson
The son of former Detroit Lions wideout Brett Perriman was a consistently productive receiver for the UCF Knights during his career, including a stellar junior year despite a huge drop-off at quarterback from Blake Bortles to Justin Holman. Perriman enters the draft as an underclassman, has an impressive 19.5 yards per catch average, and his other Playmaker numbers are solid. He put up 40 times of 4.24 and 4.27 at his pro day on Wednesday.
4. Sammie Coates, Auburn
Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 461 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 67 overall Similar historical prospects: Demaryius Thomas, Stephen Hill
When Coates was a sophomore, 2.5 percent of Auburn's pass attempts were touchdown passes to Coates. Similarly, Coates dominated his team's passing attack as a junior, gaining 3.16 yards per team attempt. Coates also averaged a superb 21.4 yards per catch and is entering the draft as an underclassman. However, while Coates' rate stats were good, his total stats were not that impressive, with only 741 receiving yards and four touchdowns as a junior. Auburn averaged fewer than 300 passing attempts per year while Coates was on the roster. Indeed, Coates' numbers may simply be a function of an offense where a few deep passes to Coates served as a change-of-pace, rather than a true reflection of Coates' ability as a wide receiver. In that regard, Coates is hauntingly similar to a huge bust that Playmaker Score loved: Stephen Hill. Coates' scouting report is similar; like Hill, Coates is a limited route-runner with inconsistent hands.
5. Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 449
Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 27 overall Similar historical prospects: Michael Crabtree, Chris Chambers
Strong had a nice performance at the scouting combine, running a 4.44 40-yard dash and producing a 42-inch vertical jump at 6-foot-2, 217 pounds, but that only helps his projection a little. His college production was good, but not great, given that the Sun Devils passed the ball a healthy 467 times.
6. Devin Smith, Ohio State
Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 427 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 25 overall Similar historical prospects: Mike Wallace, Javon Walker
Smith had only 33 receptions as a junior. However, when he caught the ball, he made big plays, averaging 20.7 yards per reception and scoring a touchdown on more than a third of his passes.
7. Tyler Lockett, Kansas State
Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 423 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 65 overall Similar historical prospects: Roddy White, Lee Evans
Playmaker Score usually dislikes wide receivers who enter the NFL Draft as seniors, but it makes an exception for Lockett, who was absolutely dominant as a junior. Lockett somehow managed to post 1,264 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns that year, even though Kansas State only passed 314 times.
8. Kevin White, West Virginia
Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 406 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 4 overall Similar historical prospects: Michael Floyd, Donnie Avery
Kevin White AP Photo/Julio Cortez Despite his lofty stock, the Playmaker Score is not in love with Kevin White's production. The case against White begins with the fact that he is entering the NFL as a senior, rather than as an underclassman. White's total numbers for his senior year were good: he had 1,447 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. However, the numbers for senior wide receivers who succeed at the NFL level are often much better than White's, especially considering that the West Virginia Mountaineers threw the ball 534 times. Kendall Wright, for example, entered the draft as a senior, but had more impressive totals: 1,663 receiving yards in only 424 team passing attempts. Jordan Matthews, who entered last year's draft as a senior, had similar total yards numbers (1,477), but did so in fewer team passing attempts (376). White may have impressed with a 4.35 second 40-yard dash at the combine, but all else being equal, the combine 40 isn't a consistent predictor of future NFL success for receivers.
9. DeVante Parker, Louisville
Projected yards per first 5 seasons: 404 Scouts, Inc. rank: No. 12 overall Similar historical prospects: Bryant Johnson, Peter Warrick
At least Kevin White fans can argue that White played through his senior year because of his two years at junior college. Parker doesn't even have that excuse. Parker has been playing college football for a full four years, and he has never topped 1,000 yards receiving. It's not as if he had a weak supporting cast either: as a junior he had the benefit of catching passes from first-round pick Teddy Bridgewater at his pre-NFL peak. A future starting NFL wide receiver should have put up video game-like numbers in these conditions, but Parker produced only 885 yards. Parker put up some nice per-game numbers as a senior after returning from an early injury, but if Parker had the talent level of a Julio Jones, he would already be in the NFL.