Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
How much of it is just regression to the mean, though?
His walk rate is down, K-rate is the same, he's inducing more groundballs, fewer line drives, and fewer flyballs. When he throws a ball outside of the zone and the batter swings, they make contact a lot less often than last year, but they hit stuff inside the zone more often.
His SIERA and xFIP is almost the same as last year, where he outperformed his peripherals.
I haven't seen him save for a few starts (once live). Is he really all that different of a pitcher? They all can't have the horseshoe-filled ass of Chris Young.
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Just ask yourself one thing ... What's harder to hit? 95 or 98?
That 3 MPH makes a world of difference. If Kelvin Herrera threw 95 he'd be useless. Last year, Ventura led baseball in pitches thrown over 98 MPH and led all starters in average MPH fastball
This year? I guarantee he's way down. 95 is hittable. 99 takes luck. The difference between 90 & 95 is one thing, the difference between 95 & 100 is just HUGE