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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
Looking at that Fangraphs Crowd Sourcing is a good start.
Let's start with Alex Gordon. Say he does get offers of 5/100. I think KC could get him with a competitive offer of 5/80-85. I don't think KC could turn down that type of deal... if you look at it from a WAR standpoint, he'd need to produce about 9 WAR over 5 years to make the contract work, and I think he does that, easily.
Now, looking at SP, I think Samardzija is really low. He'll get more because he's a name guy and overrated. Leake seems about right, though, and would be a nice stabilizing factor to add to KC's rotation for the next several years (which figure to be his prime years).
Zobrist is the one that really surprises me. I think the projections there are running behind his current market value, which apparently is around $15 million/year. That's going to be a tough sign, but if he IS signed for the figure Fangraphs suggests there, it makes alot of sense for KC.
Remember, too, that family and faith matter more to the Zobrists than anything else. Julianna is not a typical baseball wife, in that she is a breadwinner as well (very successful Christian musician, as I understand it. ) I don't think "highest bidder" is the No. 1 criterion for them.
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On their chat, there seems to be agreement that this is the year where the elites fall back some and the middle-range guys get the difference. Price, Greinke and Heyward are the elites at 150-200M. Then you have the almost-elites Cespedes, Cueto + Upton between 125-150M.
Do you have want to commit 125M to Justin Upton or do you want to buy Mike Leake, Ben Zobrist, Ryan Madson and a flier on say Mike Pelfrey? For a team that's middling, doesn't option (B) seem way more logical?
Now the Cubs or Dodgers are almost playoff locks (at least major contenders) for 2016. Buying quantity isn't important for them so they WILL get an elite player. But if you're AZ or Washington or Texas or......don't you bid up quantity?
Net: hard to see what that does to Alex. He's either a cheap option to Cespedes and he gets bid up from 80 to 100. Or else he's deemed an expensive option to Colby Rasmus and goes 85 to 75. Past years suggests any top-20 guy gets max dollars and more than crowd sourcing expec. Royals success 2015 with savvy mid level signings is the counterpoint.