Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
If JA Happ got $12 million AAV, I think we can expect all deals to be inflated more than we were projecting.
I mean, it's possible the Jays just loved something about him (maybe they buy his second half improvement more than most?) and really raised the market, but it's more likely guys are just going to get more money.
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Dave Cameron puts a 20% hike on all the FG crowdsourcing estimates. They've found the past few years that taking last year's contracts and adj them for expected dollar-per-WAR still comes up short. Cameron believes it's because "it only takes one" mentality. The crowdsourcing probably *does* accurately predict the avg value (or median) of all offers...... but the winner's curse of bidding always means 1 party overpays at the end.
That was long-winded but I believe it addresses your point and they find the same things you are predicting. Net: Cameron has Zobrist 4/76 and Gordon 4/92. Last I checked anyway.
His figure for Zobrist is breathtaking.