[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But they're also taking on Infante's salary, no? So Shields and the $65 million he's owed over the next 3 seasons comes off the books (offset to $50 million for your cash kicker) but the $16 million Infante is owed over the next 2 comes back over.

So the Padres get $34 million in salary relief. They also only get 2 years of a replacement level player vs. 3 years of, what, 2.0-2.5 WAR/season pitching? Conservatively let's say Shields is probably a 2 WAR pitcher for the next 3 seasons, yielding a total of 6 WAR.

It's close. If I'm the Padres I probably don't make that deal because at the very least they're only dealing with a 3 year obligation. If you can get wins at 6 million/win share on a term of only 3 years, you're doing okay. Hell, most models put it at about $7 million/win now (and some even at $8 million per). Most of the time you'll have to take a substantially larger gamble than that by going to 4-5 years. I also think there's a decent chance that Shields is more of a 2.5 WAR pitcher over those 3 years, shifting the calculus pretty strongly against SD.

It would be an offer worth making, but if I'm SD, I wouldn't give the $15 million kicker. I figure if I'm taking on Infante, you're getting Shields for 3/$50 million (because I'm getting nothing back in Infante; dude is straight up replacement level). If Shields is a 2 WAR/season pitcher, you're looking at the higher side of the wins/season $$, but that would be expected due to the fairly short term.

Good point. I miscalculated there. KC would probably have to include a quality piece to make that work from San Diego's side. It also depends, I guess, on how desperate Preller is to shed that salary.