Quote:
Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin
I don't think the Royals are willing to guarantee 5 years to Alex. IMO, he will get 90 million in guaranteed money.
Ultimately, that was what I was trying to say. I don't think they want to commit beyond 4 years. Again, just my opinion.
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I get not wanting to commit beyond 4 years. But they're not going to give him the money he'd get over 5 years from someone else over 4 years, either.
At that point, you might as well have the fifth year of the contract. If you're on the hook for $90 million anyway, and can spread it over five, you might as well.
The $90 million is a sunk cost either way. Even if you don't get much value at all out of year 5, it's still an extra year of value.
To put it in WAR terms:
Year 1 - 4.5 WAR
Year 2 - 4 WAR
Year 3 - 3 WAR
Year 4 1.5 WAR
Year 5 - 1 WAR