Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
Don't love it. That said, at least there's not a ton of risk in it.
There are few guys who are more 'sure bets' than Leake. That's not to say he's good - it's to say that you know pretty much exactly what you'll be getting out of him; a 4th starter that's going to give you about 2 WAR and 200 innings. Blah.
To me, they paid $15 million/season for a $12 million/season pitcher. It's an overpay, but one where I suspect they'll at least get solid production from him for the length of the deal and he's young enough that by the last 2 years of that deal, it's probably going to be below market given where salaries are trending.
Samardzija's is worse in that there's a better than average chance that he's a bullpen quality pitcher. His ceiling his higher than Leake's but man that floor is truly a crash point. I think Kazmir's is worse as well as I just don't see him holding up; the guy is a ticking timebomb, IMO.
I also look at the Cubs deal to Heyward that amounts to a 3 yr/78 million deal if/when he exercises his opt out as being absolutely insane. He's essentially the exact same player as Gordon and they just gave him $8 million more/season. Admittedly, its hard for me to be objective there, but that deal is just !@#$ing crazy to me.
There are some other nutty ones in there, but not as long term. Seriously, how the hell did Mike Pelfrey convince a team to give him 2/$16 million?
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I don't have any problem with Leake. He is being fairly paid, because FA is an efficient system where players and teams have tons of info and data and even j side info. And since they don't always take the highest offer, we know that "grey zone" (zone of possible agreement) is quite efficient.
So it's not Leake or the terms. It's why they signed a SP anyway. The Cards are about 5th from the bottom of teams that need SP. Its a mis-allocation. You create way more value getting Holliday out of LF than the marginal value another SP gives you.
Of course, there's a reason they're running a perennial playoff contender while I'm building Legos with my toddler.