Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch
FG: "Royals win again, keep Alex Gordon"
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/royal...p-alex-gordon/
2 interesting parts:
Obviously, he will age. He’s already started. Last year he stole just two bases, and he didn’t hit a triple. He’s unlikely to be an elite baserunner again, and he’s unlikely to maintain the extent of his defensive range in left field. But there are two things: one, Gordon shouldn’t hit the wall all of a sudden, and two, a lot of his defensive value is actually tied up in his arm, which has been the third-most valuable in the outfield of the past decade by both UZR and DRS.. I don’t know how outfield arms age, compared to range, but my sense is that they should age better....
We can do something really simple. The last four years, Gordon has been an outfielder worth 18.6 WAR. Over the last 30 years, there have been 23 outfielders worth something within 2.5 wins of that between the ages of 28-31. Between 32-35, those same outfielders averaged 12.5 WAR. These are just the simplest possible Gordon comps, but if you projected Gordon to be worth 12.5 WAR over the next four years, you’d expect him to sign a contract worth about $100 million. |
I'm actually optimistic about his level of defense remaining extremely high. Alex has never been speedy. He's fantastic at recognition of the the ball coming off the bat and judging the trajectory instantly. He wastes so few steps in getting position to play the ball. A slight decrease in speed is going to hamper catching up to a few balls maybe. When you have Cain or Dyson playing beside you, that significantly cuts down on the gaps that neither one of the 3 are outside their zone of coverage.
As for arm strength. It's a bit harder to tell because at this point guys aren't testing him. His assist numbers have been down for a while, and it's not because of diminished performance. Runners almost never challenge him, thus the opportunities for him to make those plays aren't there like they have been or are for other guys at his position.