Quote:
Originally Posted by Anyong Bluth
I'm actually optimistic about his level of defense remaining extremely high. Alex has never been speedy. He's fantastic at recognition of the the ball coming off the bat and judging the trajectory instantly. He wastes so few steps in getting position to play the ball. A slight decrease in speed is going to hamper catching up to a few balls maybe. When you have Cain or Dyson playing beside you, that significantly cuts down on the gaps that neither one of the 3 are outside their zone of coverage.
As for arm strength. It's a bit harder to tell because at this point guys aren't testing him. His assist numbers have been down for a while, and it's not because of diminished performance. Runners almost never challenge him, thus the opportunities for him to make those plays aren't there like they have been or are for other guys at his position.
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That's why I read these write-ups and study the data: I would never guess it was his arm that was so valuable. I see him sliding into foul ground, running back to the alleys and jumping over the walls into the crowd and thought that was his value. I was guessing his speed decline would hurt his game severely.......but it appears the data says I'm wrong.
Net: he can probably go .250-10-70 with declining defense and still earn 2 WAR/yr. that's his floor, barring injury. This contract probably will work out.