[Prison Bitch]

Here is a good exchange on Royals Review article discussing Steamer projections:

If they can add a decent pitcher, you probably get to an 80-82 win projection. You hope your guys outperform expectations and make acquisitions to supplement as needed. Maybe you go to the playoffs. Maybe you win 78 games. This is the best you can reasonably hope for if you don’t got that sweet, sweet Dodger money. I’m cool with this.


by 2motley4thetitle on 01.13.16 10:13am

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Theoretical 81-win true talent level, plus 2 wins for the excellent bullpen (which is insufficiently accounted for in pythag, and hopefully in team projections), plus 2(?) wins for under-projected defense = 85 wins. A pretty good team who, with variance, gets back into the playoffs, or has a meh season.

The projections represent what seems most likely given the player's performance in recent seasons, and his age. Any level of 2016 performance is possible for any player, but not all possibilities are equally likely.

by Scott McKinney on 01.13.16 10:17am